camion
Member
This points to why Florida State would be such an attractive addition to the SEC.
Oklahoma and other middle tier SEC teams need more sure wins on their schedule.
Conference Realignment
- Thread starter DavidBenAkiva
- Start date
Oklahoma and other middle tier SEC teams need more sure wins on their schedule.
LeadingEdge
Member
Ross Dellenger reports on Twitter that it appears Tulane, Memphis, and USF will stay in the American after sufficient bribery by the American.
He also reports the Mountain West is trying to sweeten the pot for valuable remaining schools to prevent further defections to the P(not quite)12, such as UNLV. He reports the MW is demanding a quick response from conference members on signing a GOR. Not sure what hammer the MW has to force a quick decision on that from remaining members.
My prediction: UNLV and Air Force to the P12, with Gonzaga later joining as a non-football member. Nevada does not get a bid. If Air Force isn't interested, then Utah State gets the call.
It's possible that the American has all three service academies for football.
He also reports the Mountain West is trying to sweeten the pot for valuable remaining schools to prevent further defections to the P(not quite)12, such as UNLV. He reports the MW is demanding a quick response from conference members on signing a GOR. Not sure what hammer the MW has to force a quick decision on that from remaining members.
My prediction: UNLV and Air Force to the P12, with Gonzaga later joining as a non-football member. Nevada does not get a bid. If Air Force isn't interested, then Utah State gets the call.
It's possible that the American has all three service academies for football.
brevity
Member
Those three schools, plus UTSA, are officially staying put.
There's some talk about Gonzaga joining the PAC, as reported by Brett McMurphy and Field of 68, but Nicole Auerbach says it's not a done deal:
Ross Dellenger is also reporting the Air Force is staying in the Mountain West.
Busy day.
I wonder if they considered that the rest of the SEC schools - including Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Tennessee, Arkansas and more -- will also be getting those huge payouts and in addition have major NIL programs in place too. They won't be outspent by the likes of Oklahoma.
JasonEvans
Host, The Duke Basketball Roundup
I think Tulane, Memphis, and USF were foolish. There is a pretty decent chance that the new Pac-12 is considered the fifth power conference, even if it is a large step behind the other four. But in terms of dollars and prestige, it has a chance to be at least adjacent to the big boys. Choosing to stay in the smaller "mid-major" pool is a way to ensure you are not a meaningful player as NIL and direct payments by schools become more and more prominent.
I don't get their logic here at all, especially because it isn't like the AAC has some deep, meaningful rivalries to protect and cherish.
I don't get their logic here at all, especially because it isn't like the AAC has some deep, meaningful rivalries to protect and cherish.
SkyBrickey
Member
At this point though, why would the new PAC12 have a better chance of being the 5th best conference than the AAC? It's basically dead. I don't think the name means much. Are they sitting on a big pile of cash that they can leverage? Seems like the conferences are only as valuable as the member schools...
RoseBowl1942
Member
PAC offered to subsidize a significant portion of the MW buyout for the first four members, but is only offering $2.5mm for anyone else of value willing to jump. Word on the street is that the AAC buyout is $25mm, making it prohibitively expensive for that core group of Memphis+
I don’t understand why UNLV and Nevada weren’t just given the same sweet deal as the original 4 MW defectors. They are natural fits to the PAC and bring better eyeballs than all the other properties out there
Utah State just took an offer and is reportedly paying full freight (i.e., not getting the $2.5mm) as they were not considered desirable, but needed to keep the PAC momentum going to get to the magic 8 needed to still be recognized as a conference. Sounds like most likely outcome is UNLV taking the $2.5mm to become #8
JasonEvans
Host, The Duke Basketball Roundup
The Pac-12 does not have a long-term media rights deal but I feel like their name does have more cache than the traditional mid-major conferences. I strongly suspect the Pac-12 schools are going to bring in more money than AAC schools and money is where it is at.
Also, as soon as the Pac-12 returns to full NCAA conference designation (by having 8 teams) it will be guaranteed a spot in the college football playoff. That is where the big money resides.
To me, the big question is this -- are Memphis, Tulane, and USF better off financially in the AAC or the Pac-12? I think the answer is an absolute no-brainer. Add those schools -- three programs with pretty good following and success over the years -- and the Pac-12 is a quite viable 5th major conference. Instead, those school stayed put in their mid-major and I just cannot figure out why. What is it about North Texas, UAB, Tulsa, and Rice that makes you think the path to big-time success is to be in a conference with them?
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SkyBrickey
Member
You're a lot more plugged into this than I am. The fact that an 8-team Pac12 gets a playoff spot is a pretty huge asset...
RoseBowl1942
Member
They’re not guaranteed a playoff spot for the PAC. It’s a 5+7 model (top 5 conference champions + next 7 teams). PAC is the same as everyone else. Now they likely will be the top of the G5 in most years, but there are still some teams out there in other leagues that can still give a run for the final conference champion AQ (e.g., Memphis, USF, JMU, Nevada, Wyoming, Coastal, App State, etc.).
JasonEvans
Host, The Duke Basketball Roundup
Oh wow. My bad. I did not realize it was worded like that. I thought the Pac12 was guaranteed a spot.
This scrambles my thinking, though I still think the Pac-12 is a better landing spot for the top AAC teams versus sticking in their current league.
RoseBowl1942
Member
For the record, the initial announcement of the 12-team playoff contemplated and outlined a 6+6 model (top 6 conference champions + next best 6). However they changed it to the 5+7 earlier this year given the PAC implosion last summer.
No conference technically has claim on any of the spots contractually. In theory, the MAC, SunBelt, AAC, MWC, and CUSA could be the top ranked conference champions. But in practice, the expectation was always that the P5 conferences (now P4) would de facto always get in, and the G5 (maybe now should be called G6) would get one AQ spot
There was talk that with an expansion to a 14-team playoff, the 2 teams with byes would be the SEC and BIG champions. Then the ACC, B12, BIG, and SEC would get a guaranteed 2 into the remaining pool, with the G5 getting a guaranteed 1. So would be a 14-team field with minimum 3 SEC, 3 BIG, 2 ACC, 2 B12, 1 G5 + the next best 3 schools. However the ACC and B12 balked at the idea that they would never get a bye and that they’d be stuck in the also-ran position of getting only 2 guaranteed relative to the 3 for the SEC / BIG. Honestly ego aside, it was a pretty good deal for the ACC and B12 in my view
But yeah, the PAC in and of itself doesn’t mean anything special as a conference, other than the branding (and I guess, whatever history you can still kinda claim)
LeadingEdge
Member
Two thoughts:
First, the current CFP structure only runs this season and next season and then can be negotiated. There is no guarantee that the fifth power conference champion gets an auto bid. It probably will because otherwise the group of five might file an antitrust lawsuit against the CFP.
I suspect the American conference schools spurred the Pac 12 because of uncertainty as to television revenue but certainty as to high travel costs and inconvenience.
First, the current CFP structure only runs this season and next season and then can be negotiated. There is no guarantee that the fifth power conference champion gets an auto bid. It probably will because otherwise the group of five might file an antitrust lawsuit against the CFP.
I suspect the American conference schools spurred the Pac 12 because of uncertainty as to television revenue but certainty as to high travel costs and inconvenience.
brevity
Member
And it's not over. As mentioned above, Pete Thamel says Utah State will join the PAC... momentarily?
This creates an extremely interesting situation. The NCAA requires 8 football members to officially recognize a conference. With the likely defection of Utah State, the PAC and the Mountain West each have 7:
PAC
Boise State
Colorado State
Fresno State
Oregon State
San Diego State
Utah State
Washington State
Mountain West
Air Force
Hawai'i
Nevada
New Mexico
San Jose State
UNLV
Wyoming
This is like a land war. Each conference needs one more team, and there aren't any other mid-major West Coast teams left (at the FBS level), which makes the PAC a little desperate. Here are their options:
1. Attack the Mountain West further. Utah State's departure created a kind of loophole for Air Force, San Jose State, and UNLV to not necessarily stick to the reaffirmations they made today. There are financial roadblocks to leaving, so the PAC may have to make it worth their while. (The decision 2 weeks ago by Oregon State and Washington State to add only 4 Mountain West teams instead of 6 was quite boneheaded.)
2. Leave the Mountain West alone and grab at least one of the two nearest available FBS teams: New Mexico State and UTEP, 40 miles apart from one another, and the westernmost schools in Conference USA. They are about 700 miles away from the closest PAC schools, San Diego State and Colorado State. They are also small-ish in student population, according to the National Center for Education Statistics:
UTEP (23K total, 20K undergraduates)
New Mexico State (14K, 11K)
San Diego State (37K, 32K)
Oregon State (34K, 28K)
Colorado State (33K, 25K)
Utah State (27K, 24K)
Washington State (27K, 22K)
Boise State (26K, 22K)
Fresno State (23K, 21K)
San Jose State (35K, 26K)
UNLV (30K, 25K)
New Mexico (21K, 16K)
Nevada (20K, 16K)
Hawai'i (19K, 14K)
Wyoming (11K, 8K)
Air Force (4K undergraduates only)
If conference realignment was about making sense, then the PAC adds San Jose State and UNLV at whatever cost, and calls it a day. That's 9 teams for insurance; feel free to add Gonzaga as a 10th (non-football) member. Then the Mountain West adds UTEP, New Mexico State, and a third team -- Texas State from the Sun Belt? -- to get to 8.
3. Elevate an FCS football team. I don't know if the PAC can get this done within their 2-year NCAA reprieve that's already started. This seems like the kind of thing the Mountain West could get done, if they wanted. Sacramento State, for example, has about 31K students and plays in the Big West.
4. Go crazy and form an eastern division. Here are some of the biggest public universities at the FBS level along the Eastern Seaboard that are not in a power conference:
Florida International (55K, 45K) -- Conference USA
Temple (33K, 24K) -- American
Massachusetts (32K, 24K) -- Independent
Florida Atlantic (29K, 24K) -- American
Charlotte (29K, 23K) -- American
East Carolina (27K, 21K) -- American
Connecticut (27K, 18K) -- Independent/Big East
That's a 14-team conference. With two 7-team divisions, you can minimize cross-country travel. In football, each team would play 6 games in their division and 2 games against the other division, one home and one away. That's one long road trip per team per season. In basketball, each team plays 12 games in their division and 7 games against the other division -- maybe do 3 home, 3 away, and 1 neutral. Again, that's one long road trip (3 games) per team per season.
FosterCoachK82
Member
The Conference of Champions
The big redhead squirms in his grave...
The last Rose Bowl win by the proposed new conference of champions members. You guessed it, Oregon State over Duke in 1942.
LeadingEdge
Member
Now the P12 and MW are litigating, unsurprisingly.
It's a case of the shoe now being on the other foot. The P12(really 2) got a warchest from the other schools leaving the P12. Now the MW is poised to get a warchest from schools moving from the MW to the P12 - exit fees and poaching penalty payments provided for in the P12-MW scheduling agreement.
The P12 is suing to try to void the poaching penalties.
The dominoes will keep falling, conference to conference.
It's a case of the shoe now being on the other foot. The P12(really 2) got a warchest from the other schools leaving the P12. Now the MW is poised to get a warchest from schools moving from the MW to the P12 - exit fees and poaching penalty payments provided for in the P12-MW scheduling agreement.
The P12 is suing to try to void the poaching penalties.
The dominoes will keep falling, conference to conference.
CameronBornAndBred
Well-known member
Are any of the new ACC members now looking longingly in the rearview mirror after the PAC 12's rebirth?