Brendan Marks' Article on ACC vs FSU/Clemson
A good article by Marks on the state of the kerfluffle. (behind paywall)
A good article by Marks on the state of the kerfluffle. (behind paywall)
Conference Realignment
- Thread starter DavidBenAkiva
- Start date
It would be fine with me if we never play the cheats in anything ever again.
sciencegeek
Member
Oh come on, no more games against UNC in Cameron would be so sad.
Yes... Duke should play unc at least once each year... home and away, I guess. But that would still be a great, fun game, even if they are in different conferences.
I don't watch any games that the cheats play in unless it's against Duke and I know in advance that they will lose to Duke. I almost never watch games on TV live for a number of reasons.
After the NCAA let them off on the AFAM scandal, I stopped watching all college sports for months. Eventually I started back again, but refuse to watch the cheats ever win.
Once again Brendan Marks is on top of the realignment story...notes that FSU and CLemson have very little leverage now, the league is trying to make them happy, but the league also holds all the cards at this point...https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5779099/2024/09/19/acc-florida-state-clemson-settlement-proposal-lawsuit/
I know there's a paywall, but it's worth the read if you get the Athletic...
I know there's a paywall, but it's worth the read if you get the Athletic...
hallcity
Member
That's a good article. It asks a couple of appropriate questions for which there seem to be no good answers:
- Why would the ACC want to settle with FSU and Clemson at all? The lawsuits they've brought are weak but quite offensive to other conference members.
- Why would ESPN agree to shorten the terms of its agreement with the ACC from 2036 to 2030? That's a real head scratcher. How could that be connected to a settlement with FSU and Clemson? Are things just so uncertain in college athletics that ESPN doesn't want to have a commitment for another 12 years even though the commitment appears highly favorable to them?
LeadingEdge
Member
I'm somewhat repeating myself, but the shape of settlements is decided by leverage.
Leverage against the ACC that may make it consider a deal along the lines reported:
1. Fear that FSU/Clemson might win in court. That could happen for two reasons:
A. Home-court cooking by a Florida or SC court, and a decision in one of those places becomes final and non-appealable first, which would kill the cases the ACC filed.
B. Perhaps Clemson came up with an argument on the GOR that has a substantial chance of winning (see my posts above). We can't fully evaluate that because the ACC-ESPN contract is not public.
2. Pressure from ESPN. ESPN might threaten not to renew in 2025 (until 2036) unless the ACC extinguishes the departure threat from FSU/Clemson. Perhaps in settlement negotiations, FSU/Clemson demanded shortening the GOR, and perhaps ESPN is willing to go with that in exchange for getting a guarantee that Clemson and FSU will be in the ACC through 2030.
BTW, Ross Dellenger said in the most recent Yahoo pod that he did not report 2030 being the new end date being considered. He inferred that 2030 is conjecture by other sports reporters and inferred that he does not know from his sources of a specific new end date being discussed.
A lot of college sports evolution may happen by 2030, so perhaps nothing is truly locked down for anybody anywhere in college sports after that year.
Obviously, the next big move will be by…Memphis?
sports.yahoo.com
Go West? The next wave of realignment is in Memphis' hands
The Pac-12’s resurgence — taking four Mountain West members — has left one school, it seems, with a decision that could completely reshape the Group of Five.
sports.yahoo.com
I found that article very uncompelling...I just feel sorry for the former PAC 12...Obviously, the next big move will be by…Memphis?
Go West? The next wave of realignment is in Memphis' hands
The Pac-12’s resurgence — taking four Mountain West members — has left one school, it seems, with a decision that could completely reshape the Group of Five.
TheDevilMadeMeDoIt
Member
After seeing Tennessee beat Oklahoma in Norman isn’t it logical a lot of these schools changing conferences are going to suffer buyer’s remorse? Why would Oklahoma or Texas think they improved there chances of playing for a National Championship in the SEC. Over on the Carolina boards there seems to be growing realization they will never have a good season in another conference. After watching FSU this year does anyone think they would have more opportunities to win a Natty in the SEC? USC may feel the same way after losing to Michigan. The BIG may have more appeal for everyone simply because the weather in the Southeast is becoming unbearable in September. We no longer need domes for cold weather, we need them for air conditioning in hot weather.
I agree but it seems the theory is to be in a conference that generates the most money and then the administrations will be able to buy the championships. Also Texas and Oklahoma consider themselves football royalty and thus must be in the best conference to feed their egos.
TheDevilMadeMeDoIt
Member
All these schools have boosters who can make up the financial shortfall so the money argument is hard to understand. The ego part has to be the main explanation, but isn’t winning the National Championship the ultimate goal? It certainly is for us in basketball. Haven’t the Yankees proved money doesn’t always buy championships? Mathematically some of these teams moving are going to have bad seasons. It may have already started for Oklahoma and USC. As far FSU maybe they should be looking to go the the Sun Belt or some lower conference where they can win some games.
brevity
Member
We're now looking at a 12-team playoff, and that significantly changes the importance of conference affiliation. I realize that college football is not the same as college basketball, but I think an analogy will be helpful.
Consider the basketball teams of, say, Florida Atlantic, Loyola Chicago, and Grand Canyon. Each has had success in the NCAA Tournament: FAU and Loyola made a Final Four, and earlier this year GCU upset Saint Mary's to make the 2nd round, where they thankfully lost to Alabama. (I say that because Alabama beat UNC in their next game.)
Each team did this as the lone representative of a general one-bid conference, and each has since upgraded to a conference that usually gets two or more bids. FAU moved from Conference USA to the American in 2023, Loyola from Missouri Valley to the Atlantic-10 in 2022, and Grand Canyon leaves the WAC for the West Coast in 2025. It's a tradeoff: the competition is presumably harder, but the chances to make the Big Dance go way up.
Similarly, you can see the appeal of Texas and Oklahoma moving from the Big 12 (which probably will get 1-2 spots in a 12-team field) to the SEC (which should get 3-4). I would argue it's easier to be a 4th place SEC team than a 2nd place Big 12 team, but even if it's about the same, there's more money in the SEC to make the move worth it.
As for Florida State, downgrading to the Sun Belt doesn't help their playoff chances at all, and probably hurts them. They'd be going from the ACC (1-2 annual bids, like the Big 12) to having to qualify as the best Group of Five team. There would be almost no margin for error; any loss would likely sink their case.
Consider the basketball teams of, say, Florida Atlantic, Loyola Chicago, and Grand Canyon. Each has had success in the NCAA Tournament: FAU and Loyola made a Final Four, and earlier this year GCU upset Saint Mary's to make the 2nd round, where they thankfully lost to Alabama. (I say that because Alabama beat UNC in their next game.)
Each team did this as the lone representative of a general one-bid conference, and each has since upgraded to a conference that usually gets two or more bids. FAU moved from Conference USA to the American in 2023, Loyola from Missouri Valley to the Atlantic-10 in 2022, and Grand Canyon leaves the WAC for the West Coast in 2025. It's a tradeoff: the competition is presumably harder, but the chances to make the Big Dance go way up.
Similarly, you can see the appeal of Texas and Oklahoma moving from the Big 12 (which probably will get 1-2 spots in a 12-team field) to the SEC (which should get 3-4). I would argue it's easier to be a 4th place SEC team than a 2nd place Big 12 team, but even if it's about the same, there's more money in the SEC to make the move worth it.
As for Florida State, downgrading to the Sun Belt doesn't help their playoff chances at all, and probably hurts them. They'd be going from the ACC (1-2 annual bids, like the Big 12) to having to qualify as the best Group of Five team. There would be almost no margin for error; any loss would likely sink their case.
TheDevilMadeMeDoIt
Member
Sorry my sarcasm regarding FSU didn’t come through.
Duke football aspires to be the FL/Miami Marlins?
JasonEvans
Host, The Duke Basketball Roundup
Not sure I agree with that.
According to Jeff Sagarin, Oklahoma is currently the 6th best team in the SEC. To move up to being the #4 team in the conference, they would have to go from the #13 spot to #5, a pretty heady climb. Oklahoma is likely to be an underdog (perhaps a decided underdog) in SEC games this year against Texas, Bama, Ole Miss, as well as at LSU and Missouri. They already got spanked by Tennessee. Getting through the rest of their schedule with only 1 or 2 more losses will be a challenge... and a 4 loss team ain't making the playoffs this year.
If they were still in the B12, they would be the 2nd best team to Utah (#11) and would likely be favored (or maybe a toss up) in all their remaining games.
The SEC is a gauntlet. Oklahoma is gonna get chewed up.
SEC is great but this early in the season Sagarin ratings are not yet meaningful. Wait a few weeks
While true, I think based upon what I have seen this year Oklahoma is clearly behind: Texas, Georgia, Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama with Missouri at least even and probably better.
at least some of those teams have in fact played some solid opponents, so I guess I agree. But you can't look at a team like Duke and expect much from Sagarin at this point...get a few conference games under the belt and it'll mean something.