2025 NBA Draft: Early entry decisions

scottdude8

scottdude8

Moderator, front page and podcast contributor
With these announcements heating up now that the season is done, I figured this merited its own thread so they don't get lost in other discussions.

Two big, but expected, decisions announced thus far today: BYU's Egor Demin and MSU's Jase Richardson are both headed to the draft. Their projected one-and-done lottery picks.

Previous announcements, none unexpected at this point, include Maryland's Derik Queen, Oklahoma's Jeremiah Fears, UConn's Liam McNeeley, and Rutgers' Dylan Harper. All are OADs destined for the top half of the first round.

A few others (RJ Luis, Tahaad Pettiford, Yaxel Lendeborg, amongst others) have declared while keeping their eligibility. Pettiford has said if he returns, it'll be to Auburn. Luis is in the portal, while Lendeborg has said if he returns, it'll be as a transfer to Michigan (which is a big part of Michigan's lofty "Way Too Early" rankings, as Lendeborg is atop the transfer rankings on most sites).
 
CDu said:
Probably under (Newell wasn't a starter). But it'll be a big number still.
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Newell still gonna go in the top 20, I think. Some team will fall in love with his athleticism.

Flagg #1 ($13+ mil)
Queen - top 10 ($6+ mil)
Newell - top 20ish ($3+ mil)
McNeeley - top 20ish ($3+ mil)
Wright III - BYU ($3.5 mil)

Yup, just under $30 mil. I should have done the math in advance.
 
JasonEvans said:
Newell still gonna go in the top 20, I think. Some team will fall in love with his athleticism.

Flagg #1 ($13+ mil)
Queen - top 10 ($6+ mil)
Newell - top 20ish ($3+ mil)
McNeeley - top 20ish ($3+ mil)
Wright III - BYU ($3.5 mil)

Yup, just under $30 mil. I should have done the math in advance.
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My point was that Newell wasn't in the Montverde 2024 starting lineup. He came off the bench as the team's 3rd big. So it's going to be comfortably below $30 million, as he doesn't contribute to that list ;).
 
scottdude8 said:
A few others (RJ Luis, Tahaad Pettiford, Yaxel Lendeborg, amongst others) have declared while keeping their eligibility. Pettiford has said if he returns, it'll be to Auburn. Luis is in the portal, while Lendeborg has said if he returns, it'll be as a transfer to Michigan (which is a big part of Michigan's lofty "Way Too Early" rankings, as Lendeborg is atop the transfer rankings on most sites).
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Question: Now that everyone can have an agent, is there a meaningful distinction between keeping your eligibility and not keeping your eligibility?

I've long thought that players should have the right to go back to school if they're not drafted in the first round or offered a guaranteed contract. They'd need to move the draft a lot earlier to make to make that work without having colleges waiting until late summer to hear who they'll have next season.
 
King of Defense said:
Question: Now that everyone can have an agent, is there a meaningful distinction between keeping your eligibility and not keeping your eligibility?

I've long thought that players should have the right to go back to school if they're not drafted in the first round or offered a guaranteed contract. They'd need to move the draft a lot earlier to make to make that work without having colleges waiting until late summer to hear who they'll have next season.
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If I recall there's a minor distinction about the type of agent, but you're right at this point its splitting hairs. The NCAA does still seem to be holding to it's withdrawal deadline, though.
 
Another borderline decision, this one with big ramifications: Houston’s Milos Uzan is declaring for the draft.

www.espn.com

Houston tourney star Uzan to declare for draft

Houston guard Milos Uzan, a breakout star in the men's NCAA tournament, will declare for the 2025 NBA draft.
www.espn.com www.espn.com

If he stays in, that would put a damper on the “Houston is the way too early #1” talk. Also interesting because there’s some similarity between Uzan and Tyrese as projected mid second round picks with one year of eligibility remaining.
 
tommy said:
Scott what are you hearing about ya boy Danny Wolf?
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Michigan is operating under the strong assumption he’s going pro… to the point I find it a bit odd he hasn’t declared yet.

With Yaxel in the fold to nominally replace Wolf but “testing the waters”, part of me wonders whether there’s the tiniest chance Wolf might return if his NBA stock isn’t where he wants it to be and Yaxel decides to go pro… but I’d put that as <5% likely.
 
scottdude8 said:
Michigan is operating under the strong assumption he’s going pro… to the point I find it a bit odd he hasn’t declared yet.

With Yaxel in the fold to nominally replace Wolf but “testing the waters”, part of me wonders whether there’s the tiniest chance Wolf might return if his NBA stock isn’t where he wants it to be and Yaxel decides to go pro… but I’d put that as <5% likely.
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That’s about what i was figuring too.
 
Out of curiosity, I wanted to see how many early-entry prospects we'd traditionally view as on the "fringe" (i.e., projected second rounders or very late first rounders) had made decisions of yet. I used ESPN's latest mock draft.

Declared for the draft:
  • Adou Thiero (#26)
  • Yaxel Lendeborg (#27, but an odd case since he's also committed to a Michigan transfer)
  • Rasheer Fleming (#30)
  • Tahaad Pettiford (#39, apparently keeping the door for a return to Auburn very much open)
  • Milos Uzan (#42, keeping the possibility open for a return)
By all accounts returning to school:
  • Bennett Stirtz (#36, transferring from Drake to Iowa)
  • Darrion Williams (#44, in the transfer portal)
  • JT Toppin (#45, returning to Texas Tech for a big reported payday)
For reference, ESPN has Isaiah at #43 and Tyrese at #52, both below what appears to be a rough cut-off forming at around the Top 40 prospects (which makes some sense given those early second round picks have been getting guaranteed deals of late). So you can view this either as good news that perhaps Isaiah and Tyrese will follow the trend (the returning to school trend, not the transfer one!), or bad news that some guys "ahead" of them are returning to school and leaving room to rise in the rankings.
 
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