2024 Presidential Election -- new thread for the final week

What will be the outcome of the 2024 Presidential Election

  • 269-269 Tie - I am someone who likes maximum chaos

    Votes: 3 3.5%

  • Harris wins 270-285 EVs - She basically wins by one or two states

    Votes: 14 16.3%

  • Harris wins 285-305 EVs - a close race, but she largely sweeps the swing states

    Votes: 36 41.9%

  • Harris wins 306+ EVs - Ann Selzer was right!! It ain't actually that close

    Votes: 21 24.4%

  • Trump wins 270-285 EVs - The race where it doesn't get called until next week

    Votes: 3 3.5%

  • Trump wins 285-305 EVs - The 2016 sequel

    Votes: 6 7.0%

  • Trump wins 306+ EVs - The MAGA Mandate, Harris concedes by midnight

    Votes: 3 3.5%
  • Total voters
    86
  • Poll closed .
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Stray Gator said:
Governor Ron DeSantis took it upon himself to tip the scales by spending millions of taxpayer dollars flooding the airwaves with a very pervasive, aggressive ad campaign aimed at defeating both the abortion and recreational marijuana amendments. Having previously succeeded in establishing a 60% requirement for passage of constitutional amendments, his deployment of that state-funded campaign made it difficult for proponents of those amendments to succeed against an already-stacked deck. Nonetheless, the vote looks to be a clear majority favoring both measures, and it's probably close enough to encourage the backers to try again -- maybe when Florida has a governor who doesn't view the state treasury as his personal war chest for funding immigrant relocation stunts and campaigns to defeat popular constitutional amendments.
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I have been following DeSantis’s efforts there, and how he succeeded in keeping the votes below 60%. I still don’t understand those who defied the Governor’s efforts on those two measures and yet still voted for Trump and Scott.
 
Stray Gator said:
Governor Ron DeSantis took it upon himself to tip the scales by spending millions of taxpayer dollars flooding the airwaves with a very pervasive, aggressive ad campaign aimed at defeating both the abortion and recreational marijuana amendments. Having previously succeeded in establishing a 60% requirement for passage of constitutional amendments, his deployment of that state-funded campaign made it difficult for proponents of those amendments to succeed against an already-stacked deck. Nonetheless, the vote looks to be a clear majority favoring both measures, and it's probably close enough to encourage the backers to try again -- maybe when Florida has a governor who doesn't view the state treasury as his personal war chest for funding immigrant relocation stunts and campaigns to defeat popular constitutional amendments.
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The 60% threshold has been in place since 2006, though -- which is definitely higher than most states but it's not like DeSantis recently passed that threshold anticipating the abortion amendment. But you certainly know more about Florida politics than I do. I certainly didn't know about the campaign happenings.

It is interesting that parties are inconsistent with "government should leave us alone to do what we want!" Guns, drugs, abortions, etc. I find it funny that the billboards along the highway going from IL to WI are all for fireworks (illegal in IL) and the billboards the other way are for marijuana dispensaries (illegal in WI). Politicians are so consistent in their philosophies extending to all circumstances. 🤣
 
Truth is, right now we aren’t seeing a definitive “story” emerging yet. There hasn’t been a clear endorsement, nor a clear repudiation, of any particular theme that either campaign has tried desperately to push. Both sides are coming out in mass. Everything is still up in the air, but for once the polls were correct: this thing is tight!
 
VA numbers, which look surprisingly close, are a mirage. A lot of Northern Virginia precincts have not reported and that’s
where the votes are.
 
bird said:
VA numbers, which look surprisingly close, are a mirage. A lot of Northern Virginia precincts have not reported and that’s
where the votes are.
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As an addendum to what I mentioned earlier (being one of a party's electors), I live in Northern Virginia. While speaking to a friend earlier tonight, I learned that he had written me in, not realizing that he could have (technically) voted for me by casting for a particular ticket.
 
FosterCoachK82 said:
NYT needle showing 68% chance of Trump victory.
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Seems like most counties in swing states have had really similar splits to 2020 results. We shall see what happens with WI, MI, and PA where they're all basically tossups. I think the fact that Harris likely has to win all three whereas Trump probably wins with 1 plays into the odds. But those states probably go in fairly close tandem so one could argue they aren't completely independent variables. Still, does seem like Trump optimism/Harris pessimism is the prevalent feeling right now....the fact that Biden won Ga and it doesn't seem like that'll be even close this time doesn't portend well for Harris.
 
Bluedog said:
Seems like most counties in swing states have had really similar splits to 2020 results. We shall see what happens with WI, MI, and PA where they're all basically tossups. I think the fact that Harris likely has to win all three whereas Trump probably wins with 1 plays into the odds. But those states probably go in fairly close tandem so one could argue they aren't completely independent variables. Still, does seem like Trump optimism/Harris pessimism is the prevalent feeling right now....the fact that Biden won Ga and it doesn't seem like that'll be even close this time doesn't portend well for Harris.
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Yeah, and it’s really hard to know what votes are left out there when you look at county by county. Just have to count them up and see.
 
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