2024 Presidential Election -- new thread for the final week

[Deslok]

I have a 15 year old daughter. I'm not sure I'll ever be able to get over it.

Having a 10 year old, I know I won’t get over her having any semblance of a social life, so no matter who is in the White House for the next four years is going to be a long stretch

 

[duke2x]

It wasn't me! Although you did leave Chase Oliver out of the poll, I won't hold that against you.

Although I might pick Giant Meteor if that is an option. I go check CNEOS and see if there is anything that can get the job done.

I'll add most of us on this thread have enough cash on hand to buy foreign passports if things get too chaotic or move to Mars in the meteor scenario. Nothing is really either/or or doomsday, and the President is very, very likely to be handicapped by a split or opposite Congress for the next 4 years.

 

[CDu]

I have a minor quibble with the wording on the poll. 306 electoral college votes doesn't mean the election wasn't close. In 2016, Trump won the states for 306 votes (2 faithless electors dropped him, but that's a different discussion) in an election that was decided by about 75,000 total votes. In 2020, Biden won the states for 306 votes, but he carried AZ, GA, and WI by just ~44,000 total votes. Had Trump taken those 3 states, he'd have gotten an electoral college tie and would have won the presidency with the House vote. Or he would have won outright with those 3 states and NV (he lost by less than 34K in NV). Both of those elections were won by razor-thin margins, despite the electoral college suggesting otherwise.

 

[Skydog]

It wasn't me! Although you did leave Chase Oliver out of the poll, I won't hold that against you.

Although I might pick Giant Meteor if that is an option. I go check CNEOS and see if there is anything that can get the job done.

You are like another Wolfpacker I know. I asked him who he pulls for when Duke plays UNC, he replied “The man with a bomb.”

 

[Skydog]

I'll add most of us on this thread have enough cash on hand to buy foreign passports if things get too chaotic or move to Mars in the meteor scenario. Nothing is really either/or or doomsday, and the President is very, very likely to be handicapped by a split or opposite Congress for the next 4 years.

Should I feel bad that I’m not in the “enough money to move to Mars” club?

 

[duke2x]

Should I feel bad that I’m not in the “enough money to move to Mars” club?

No, regardless of what you think of him, Elon Musk has that much money and doesn't have the technological know-how for it. My point is that there's way too much anxiety about the outcome, and that concerns me more than whoever wins. (I'm 100% sure my candidate is not going to win, but I'm happy with my vote.)

 

[House P]

Partisan lean of swing states since 2004

There has been much discussion about how Pennsylvania is the most likely "tipping point" state in 2024. While it seems fairly unlikely, there is a case to be made based on historical voting trends that a candidate may be able to win the 2024 race without winning PA.

Here's a plot of the partisan lean* of 5 key swing states since 2004.



While PA has consistently leaned more towards the Democratic candidate than GA and AZ, the gap has closed enormously since 2012. PA's shift right stalled in 2020 while AZ and GA continued to shift left. If this trend continues, GA and AZ could move to the left of PA in 2024.

Of course, there is no guarantee that the trends of the past two cycles will continue in 2024. Importantly, the polls aren't necessarily showing GA and AZ moving to the left of PA. This seems to be particularly true in AZ where border concerns and decreasing support among Latino voters appears to be a bigger issue than in PA.

A couple additional observations:
- All 5 of these state leaned right in 2020, though Biden won 4 of them because he won the national vote by 4.5%.
- Interesting to me that NC is the only swing state which hasn't really shown much shift in partisan lean since 2012. Most polls show that Harris has a better chance of winning NC than GA or AZ this year. If so, that would represent a fairly significant shift for NC since the 2012-2020 era.



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*Partisan lean is the difference in vote for a state compared to the national vote. For example, Biden won MI by 2.8% and the popular vote by 4.5%. This represents a 1.7% partisan lean towards the Republicans for Michigan. For the purposes of this graph, a positive value means that the state leaned more toward the Democratic candidate than the national vote and a negative value means that the state leaned toward the Republican candidate.

 

[Skydog]

No, regardless of what you think of him, Elon Musk has that much money and doesn't have the technological know-how for it. My point is that there's way too much anxiety about the outcome, and that concerns me more than whoever wins. (I'm 100% sure my candidate is not going to win, but I'm happy with my vote.)

I was joking. I actually do have “Mars money.” Great Amex card!

 

[acdevil]

If your candidate loses how long will you be emotionally upset? Not intellectually upset - that could last a lifetime - I’m talking about feeling it in your body.

For me, god forbid it happens, I will probably be gloomy for a week, at the least.

Will probably take up to a week for the disappointment to subside.

Unfortunately it would ramp up the anxiety. The Republicans have said again that they want to get rid of the ACA. If that happens, I will be uninsurable because of a pre-existing condition and I’m losing my current insurance in the not too distant future. And I also can’t leave the country.

Good times.

 

[AGDukesky]

Should I feel bad that I’m not in the “enough money to move to Mars” club?

Not really because I have it on good authority that Mars ain’t the kind of place to raise your kids, in fact it’s cold as hell

 

[PackMan97]

You are like another Wolfpacker I know. I asked him who he pulls for when Duke plays UNC, he replied “The man with a bomb.”

Not cool. I'm with the TSA on this, somethings you don't joke about.

 

[SkyBrickey]

I am told they are still deciding. I would wager that David Axelrod, Van Jones, David Urban, and Alyssa Farah Griffin are sure things. Might add a couple more to that list.

This is a fair lineup. Please no Scott Jennings. When he flips on his switch and starts angrily parroting MAGA talking points, it's unwatchable.

 

[House P]

Partisan Lean of Former Swing States

Here is a look at how the partisan lean has shifted dramatically for a few former swing states. As a former Florida voter (1996) and Ohio voter (2000-2008), I kinda miss feeling relevant in a presidential election - though I certainly don't miss being subjected to a barrage of TV ads.



Please see my previous post for a definition of how I calculated "partisan lean"

 

[crote]

The New York Times' tech workers are on strike, and it looks unlikely they will get a deal from the publisher by tomorrow. Fans of the election needle in absolute shambles right now.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1853495510327493043

 

[budwom]

Historically, yes. But this year the early votes have to be counted after polling closes at 7:30. But since so many of them are in-person (~4.2 million so far), it should go quickly. Perhaps within an hour. The mail-in votes will take longer, especially as there is a delay permitted for Western NC. But they do expect to have over 95% of the votes counted by midnight or so on election night.

some states can and do count early votes ahead of time...I assume you're talking about NC..

 

[budwom]

I’m the news hound in our family, but I focus on “print” media. When we go to the teevee, our family’s preferences is Lester Holt. If he’s one and we have the television on, he will be our choice.

I’ll be following DBR, Nate Cohn or his equivalent, etc.

we do Lester as well but I still hold a grudge against his network since they gave a voice to Trump because they thought it would be cute, and they constantly (from what is reported) had to edit his rambling for them to make sense. Bad idea.

 

[ClemmonsDevil]

So which media will people be following as things unfold tomorrow? I actually flipped around last year but am much more well-informed because of this thread this time around and may just make this my headquarters.

I will be following Nate Cohn on twitter, the New York Times needles and the 538 live blog. No TV consumption for me. It's inane and I hate it. They don't do a very good job of explaining things in depth as they occur.

 

[OldPhiKap]

FWIW the 538 predictor indicates that the single outcome occurring most often in their model is Trump 312, Harris 226.

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?

538’s 2024 presidential election forecast model showing Democrat Kamala Harris’s and Republican Donald Trump’s chances of winning.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

An outcome in that range is tied for the least likely choice here. Interesting (to me at least).

 

[Skydog]

Not cool. I'm with the TSA on this, somethings you don't joke about.

Not my joke. Talk to your fellow alumnus.

 

[CDu]

some states can and do count early votes ahead of time...I assume you're talking about NC..

Yes, we were talking about NC specifically.