2024 Presidential Election -- new thread for the final week

What will be the outcome of the 2024 Presidential Election

  • 269-269 Tie - I am someone who likes maximum chaos

    Votes: 3 3.5%

  • Harris wins 270-285 EVs - She basically wins by one or two states

    Votes: 14 16.3%

  • Harris wins 285-305 EVs - a close race, but she largely sweeps the swing states

    Votes: 36 41.9%

  • Harris wins 306+ EVs - Ann Selzer was right!! It ain't actually that close

    Votes: 21 24.4%

  • Trump wins 270-285 EVs - The race where it doesn't get called until next week

    Votes: 3 3.5%

  • Trump wins 285-305 EVs - The 2016 sequel

    Votes: 6 7.0%

  • Trump wins 306+ EVs - The MAGA Mandate, Harris concedes by midnight

    Votes: 3 3.5%
  • Total voters
    86
  • Poll closed .
Status
Not open for further replies.
SkyBrickey said:
So back in 2020 Fox News played it straight in calling the states and the race for Biden over the objections of the Trump campaign.

If she wins this year, will they still call it and report it honestly? That won't stop Trump and MAGA, but it definitely takes a lot of wind out of their sails. Thoughts?
Click to expand...
No they won’t. They fired the guy in charge of elections last time. He was a straight shooter nerd - did not go over well with his bosses.
 
dudog84 said:
No he wouldn't. Biden was flawed, but so is Trump. If Kamala wins big, Biden could have squeaked by. I'm glad Biden did the right thing and we don't have to find out.
Click to expand...
When Pelosi and the DEMs pressured Biden to withdraw, he was falling behind in the polls. One assumes that DEMs were scared by the trends they were seeing in the polling data. So are we talking about polls that were using the same methodology that is now thought to be over-correcting for the errors of 2016? Was Biden in better shape than it appeared? Your assertion seems plausible if so. Either way, I have far less faith in the polls than I did and hats off to Selzer for actually keeping the science in data analysis. What other pollsters like Nate silver are doing with the data seems awfully capricious.
 
Last edited:
CameronBlue said:
When Pelosi and the DEMs pressured Biden to withdraw, he was falling behind in the polls. One assumes that DEMs were scared by the trends they were seeing in the polling data. So are we talking about polls that were using the same methodology that is now thought to be over-correcting for the errors of 2016? Was Biden in better shape than it appeared? Your assertion seems plausible if so. Either way, I have far less faith in the polls than I did and hats off to Selzer for actually keeping the science in data analysis. What other posters like Nate silver are doing with the data seems awfully capricious.
Click to expand...
I was with you until the end. What is Nate Silver doing that is capricious?
 
FosterCoachK82 said:
I was with you until the end. What is Nate Silver doing that is capricious?
Click to expand...
That’s the question isn’t it? I don’t know what assumptions Nate silver makes or any of the pollsters make when it comes to adjusting for sampling errors, correcting for assumed polling biases. Etc..Charge; Ignorant. Verdict: Guilty. But it seems apparent that pollsters are trying To avoid underestimating Trump’s support and the question being debated publicly is have they over-corrected? On the surface it appears that Selzer has made fewer assumptions about the sample population and asked smarter questions like “who did you vote for last time” to produce a more reliable data set.
 
Reporting tonight that the Maricopa County ballot counting facility has added barbed wire fencing and will have snipers on the roof and drones for security.

If it's happening there, it's happening everywhere in the battleground states. I just don't think MAGA will get anywhere with Jan6 type shenanigans this time. The government is prepared. I'm sure all the state National Guards are on standby to swoop in too.
 
SkyBrickey said:
Reporting tonight that the Maricopa County ballot counting facility has added barbed wire fencing and will have snipers on the roof and drones for security.

If it's happening there, it's happening everywhere in the battleground states. I just don't think MAGA will get anywhere with Jan6 type shenanigans this time. The government is prepared. I'm sure all the state National Guards are on standby to swoop in too.
Click to expand...
I never thought a demogogue could drive American citizens into such a sel-destructive frenzy. TDS is real, but it’s not coming from the libs.
 
CameronBlue said:
That’s the question isn’t it? I don’t know what assumptions Nate silver makes or any of the pollsters make when it comes to adjusting for sampling errors, correcting for assumed polling biases. Etc..Charge; Ignorant. Verdict: Guilty. But it seems apparent that pollsters are trying To avoid underestimating Trump’s support and the question being debated publicly is have they over-corrected? On the surface it appears that Selzer has made fewer assumptions about the sample population and asked smarter questions like “who did you vote for last time” to produce a more reliable data set.
Click to expand...
Whatever you think of him, he isn't a pollster. He doesn't have anything to do with the polling. The only thing he does is aggregate them. So he's using polls in his model and he also looks at things like the economy and other variables. But he isn't polling at all so he's making no assumptions. He's just using the polls in his models. It's perfectly fine to disagree with his modeling.
 
I have added a poll to this thread. You will see it at the top of each page. You can only vote once and the poll will close in 24 hours... so get your vote in by 5am ET tomorrow for it to count.

Here are your options --

  • 269-269 Tie - I am someone who likes maximum chaos
  • Harris wins 270-285 EVs - She basically wins by one or two states
  • Harris wins 285-305 EVs - a close race, but she largely sweeps the swing states
  • Harris wins 306+ EVs - Ann Selzer was right!! It ain't actually that close
  • Trump wins 270-285 EVs - The race where it doesn't get called until next week
  • Trump wins 285-305 EVs - The 2016 sequel
  • Trump wins 306+ EVs - The MAGA Mandate, Harris concedes by midnight
 
wiscodevil said:
Josh Hawley: “Some will say now that I am calling America a Christian Nation. So I am. And some will say that I am advocating Christian Nationalism. And so I do."

:eek:
Click to expand...
One of many reasons I voted against him. Not a fan.

The lines for early voting in STL County have been VERY long. It took me 3+ hrs to vote on Saturday. According to this map, though, early voting numbers for MO were low as of Nov 1. My guess is more early voting in the cities than in rural areas.
 
Furniture said:
I gave my last contribution to the Harris campaign a couple of days ago, but I am still being texted nonstop asking for more. Do they even have enough time to spend any money donated now?
Click to expand...
I get messages thanking me for giving and messages asking why I haven’t given. Maybe the money is for a big after party?
 
CameronBlue said:
When Pelosi and the DEMs pressured Biden to withdraw, he was falling behind in the polls. One assumes that DEMs were scared by the trends they were seeing in the polling data. So are we talking about polls that were using the same methodology that is now thought to be over-correcting for the errors of 2016? Was Biden in better shape than it appeared? Your assertion seems plausible if so.
Click to expand...
Biden simply could not have run the campaign that Kamala has. He doesn’t have the energy or the time to do what she has done. Dobbs would have been Dobbs regardless, but she has prosecuted that case in a way that he could not, and she neutralized the age issue in a way he obviously could not.

I badly underestimated her. Wrote her off years ago as a lightweight. I could not have been more wrong.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top