2024 Presidential Election -- new thread for the final week

What will be the outcome of the 2024 Presidential Election

  • 269-269 Tie - I am someone who likes maximum chaos

    Votes: 3 3.5%

  • Harris wins 270-285 EVs - She basically wins by one or two states

    Votes: 14 16.3%

  • Harris wins 285-305 EVs - a close race, but she largely sweeps the swing states

    Votes: 36 41.9%

  • Harris wins 306+ EVs - Ann Selzer was right!! It ain't actually that close

    Votes: 21 24.4%

  • Trump wins 270-285 EVs - The race where it doesn't get called until next week

    Votes: 3 3.5%

  • Trump wins 285-305 EVs - The 2016 sequel

    Votes: 6 7.0%

  • Trump wins 306+ EVs - The MAGA Mandate, Harris concedes by midnight

    Votes: 3 3.5%
  • Total voters
    86
  • Poll closed .
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I don't want to spam our little thread with too much betting market stuff, but look what happened on Kalshi today. Kalshi is the the major new competitor to Polymarket - no Peter Thiel involvement.

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We're all wondering how soon we'll know the answer. This is MSNBC, but Kornacki does a good job of showing 3 counties (outside Atlanta, outside Charlotte, and around Scranton) you want to keep an eye on Tuesday night if you want to know how the election is going early.

www.msnbc.com

Vote counting schedules and bellwether blobs: Steve Kornacki previews Election Night expectations

MSNBC national political correspondent Steve Kornacki, talks with Alex Wagner about when results are expected on Election Night and what indications early in the evening could suggest the overall shape of the election outcome.
www.msnbc.com www.msnbc.com
 
dudog84 said:
We're all wondering how soon we'll know the answer. This is MSNBC, but Kornacki does a good job of showing 3 counties (outside Atlanta, outside Charlotte, and around Scranton) you want to keep an eye on Tuesday night if you want to know how the election is going early.

www.msnbc.com

Vote counting schedules and bellwether blobs: Steve Kornacki previews Election Night expectations

MSNBC national political correspondent Steve Kornacki, talks with Alex Wagner about when results are expected on Election Night and what indications early in the evening could suggest the overall shape of the election outcome.
www.msnbc.com www.msnbc.com
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Kornacki’s the best. Gonna be watching MSNBC on election night.
 
rsvman said:
I tend to feel that my wife should do what she thinks is best, and that includes whether she wants to tell me how she voted or not.

She did tell me how she voted, and we have had a lot of conversations about politics over the past few months, but I would have respected her right to not tell me if she chose not to.

I don't need Trump's opinion about what couples should or shouldn't do.
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Totally disagree with this. I always demand my wife tell me who she’s voting for. I mean, how else am I gonna know who to vote for?
 
JStuart said:
And this from someone who dodged the draft back in the late 60's? At least Liz doesn't have bone spurs, y'know?
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When Liz Cheney was of military age, she didn't (and still wouldn't) even have needed to dodge the draft. Furthermore, she wouldn't even have been allowed to be in a combat unit, not even as a pilot.

I'm pretty sure that's what it looks like to protect women whether they like it or not.
 
JasonEvans said:
Yeah, Ann Selzer is considered the guru of Iowa polling in a pretty big way. If she says it, believe it.

In fact, Anne‘s reputation is so good. I’m kind of surprised she didn’t fudge this pole a little bit. Maybe report it as Trump plus one or something like that. She is really sticking her neck out here in a state where she is considered the first and last word in polling. if she misses this badly, it’s severely damages her reputation.
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It's one poll. I would say that long-term, it makes her reputation better, not worse. It's data, and she reports it. She doesn't manipulate it to suit her preconceived notions. She doesn't herd.

Outliers are to be expected, and as noted earlier in the thread, the absence of them in general is suspicious.
 
FosterCoachK82 said:
Best to keep politics out of relationships, including marriages.
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What do you mean? Our entire lives our affected by politics. Well, unless you live in a tiny cabin in the middle of nowhere and you’re completely off the grid like the Unabomber.

Your spouse is the person you are closest to — literally and figuratively— in the entire world. Why would you not want to share yourself completely with him or her? If you withhold your true thoughts on issues that affect both of your lives, as well as the lives of all of your loved ones, what exactly is the point of the relationship?
 
SkyBrickey said:
I think this ad has hit MAGA harder than anything this whole election cycle. It's very effective at reminding women that their vote is secret. And it directly hits at MAGA men's insecurities that they might not truly know their wives. Some are predicting a lot of divorces in 2025.
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My wife has watched that 20 times as she cackles
 
Is it just me or has this been the longest election ever?

And please, nobody say 'In ____, the first candidate announced his run on ____________, officially making that the longest election ever'.

Edit: Just thinking, because of Biden's selfless action, this may actually be the shortest election season ever between the actual candidates.
 
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Steven43 said:
What do you mean? Our entire lives our affected by politics. Well, unless you live in a tiny cabin in the middle of nowhere and you’re completely off the grid like the Unabomber.

Your spouse is the person you are closest to — literally and figuratively— in the entire world. Why would you not want to share yourself completely with him or her? If you withhold your true thoughts on issues that affect both of your lives, as well as the lives of all of your loved ones, what exactly is the point of the relationship?
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I don’t know. But I’m not married.🙃
 
Steven43 said:
What do you mean? Our entire lives our affected by politics. Well, unless you live in a tiny cabin in the middle of nowhere and you’re completely off the grid like the Unabomber.

Your spouse is the person you are closest to — literally and figuratively— in the entire world. Why would you not want to share yourself completely with him or her? If you withhold your true thoughts on issues that affect both of your lives, as well as the lives of all of your loved ones, what exactly is the point of the relationship?
Click to expand...

Tell my husband everything? Hell no. Don't want to know everything about him either. But if he voted for Trump I would divorce him.
 
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