2024 Presidential Election -- new thread for the final week

[Bostondevil]

I haven't had time to read through the entire re-opened thread, so I apologize if this has already been discussed, but who would have guessed that the 'October surprise' for Trump would turn out to be the recordings of him telling Billy (?) on a hot mike that he could sexually abuse women without any consequences?

Yes, I'm talking about the tapes that were revealed several weeks before the 2016 election. It turns out that there are hundreds of thousands of young voters who apparently had never heard of these recordings. And that popular influencers on TikTok are now broadcasting their existence and their content, and that the newly elelgible young voters seem to be a lot more disturbed by them than boomers were eight years ago.

Wouldn't it be something if this 'surprise' actually swung the election to Harris on the strength of young voters?

Add to this the fact that younger voters do not remember a time when Trump was seen as merely a successful business man and they never watched The Apprentice when he was the host.

The youngest voters were in middle and high school during Trump's presidency. They were in school when he was impeached, both times. Perhaps they studied impeachment in their history classes. They were teenagers when the Jeffrey Epstein scandal reached its peak. They witnessed the events of January 6th, 2021 - perhaps that was discussed in history class too. Trump has been convicted of a felony, found liable for sexual assault, and has a case pending about the classified documents found in his bathroom. Revisiting the Access Hollywood tape now for the kids who weren't paying attention in 2016 - yes, rsvman, I agree, it probably looks very different to them and carries more weight. I imagine relatively few of them are dismissing it as locker room talk. Also - what does it feel like to be a 22 year old woman listening to Trump claiming he is going to protect you whether you like it or not?

 

[Bostondevil]

While I have read The Return of the Native, you really need to read that sentence like this

"The FIRST Saturday IN November WAS approaching THE time of twilight . . . " all while imaging the cheers of a bank holiday crowd in the background.

I don't have the words exactly right, by the way, but that's how I hear it in my head.

OK, I'm a little disappointed that nobody realized I was referencing this classic bit of comedy.

 

[SkyBrickey]

View attachment 18557
A LOT of women voting in Georgia. Early voting is now closed.

Not only women. I did a deep dive into some of the GA county data last night. And the metro Atlanta county performing best in early voting compared to 2020? The heavily black Clayton County. Black people seem to be coming out in a big way.

If this turnout pattern holds up on Tuesday, she wins GA and wins the election.

 

[burnspbesq]

A timely reminder for women voters of what Republicans have in store for them.

Nevaeh Crain Died During a Miscarriage After Trying to Get Care in Texas Hospitals https://www.propublica.org/article/nevaeh-crain-death-texas-abortion-ban-emtala

 

[burnspbesq]

November surprise? Heather Cox Richardson thinks Trump threatened to haul Liz Cheney in front of a firing squad. Not sure I agree, but it’s a plausible interpretation of his remarks.

 

[budwom]

November surprise? Heather Cox Richardson thinks Trump threatened to haul Liz Cheney in front of a firing squad. Not sure I agree, but it’s a plausible interpretation of his remarks.

the precise nature of "nine guys" does at least raise the question, unless the Russkis roam the battlefield in groups of nine, like very aggressive baseball teams. Perhaps they do.

 

[CrazyNotCrazie]

A timely reminder for women voters of what Republicans have in store for them.

Nevaeh Crain Died During a Miscarriage After Trying to Get Care in Texas Hospitals https://www.propublica.org/article/nevaeh-crain-death-texas-abortion-ban-emtala

Yup. Some of the Red states that ran to the extremes with their policies after Dobbs really bit Trump in the backside. I'm not sure how you can be "pro life" but OK with this as people are dying as a result of these policies. Less than 1% of abortions are after 20 weeks (see link), which is what primarily concerns pro-life people. And I'm guessing the vast majority of those are medical based, not someone just deciding they no longer want a kid.

Abortion Surveillance — United States, 2020

CDC publishes an annual summary of abortion data in the United States. This report is for the year 2020.

www.cdc.gov

 

[SkyBrickey]

the precise nature of "nine guys" does at least raise the question, unless the Russkis roam the battlefield in groups of nine, like very aggressive baseball teams. Perhaps they do.

Even if he was talking about Liz Cheney not being willing to go to war herself, the violent imagery on top of years of violent rhetoric is way out of bounds. If he loses next week, I have little doubt the FBI will be forced to "mute his mic" on Truth Social for inciting violence...

 

[SkyBrickey]

 

[SkyBrickey]

The betting markets have heavily favored Trump the past couple of weeks but PredictIt swung dramatically toward Harris in the past 48 hours. This is the market used by the Nortwestern data scientist. The election is now a toss up in his model.

https://www.virtualtout.com/

 

[budwom]

at least several of the betting markets have been getting manipulated, Polymarket being the most prominent.

 

[Kdogg]

The betting markets have heavily favored Trump the past couple of weeks but PredictIt swung dramatically toward Harris in the past 48 hours. This is the market used by the Nortwestern data scientist. The election is now a toss up in his model.

https://www.virtualtout.com/

Before the great POTUS thread purge of 2024 wasn't there an article about how wash sales on Polymarket? Sorry if this is redundant.

Exclusive: Election betting site Polymarket is rife with fake ‘wash’ trading, researchers say

Blockchain evidence points to users carrying out market manipulation to inflate trading volumes on the popular political betting platform.

fortune.com

Fortune Claims Polymarket Is 'Rife' With Wash Trading

As much as a third of the prediction market's volume is inflated by traders acting as the buyer and seller — an illegal practice in TradFi — on the same trades, Fortune reported. Some could be doing it to farm a future token airdrop.

www.coindesk.com

New Research Claims Polymarket Is Full of 'Wash Trading'

Researchers claim a small coterie of users may be manipulating the site's results.

gizmodo.com

 

[Bostondevil]

Things you can't unsee.

Alas, I came across the video of Trump miming oral sex on his microphone at a rally last night.

 

[Steven43]

The betting markets have heavily favored Trump the past couple of weeks but PredictIt swung dramatically toward Harris in the past 48 hours. This is the market used by the Nortwestern data scientist. The election is now a toss up in his model.

https://www.virtualtout.com/

For what it’s worth, it’s not a toss-up in my model!

 

[SkyBrickey]

For what it’s worth, it’s not a toss-up in my model!

Watching the female turnout in PA and the African American turnout in GA, I'm coming around to the idea that you could be right. I don't think we are going to see a Trump blowout win.

 

[acdevil]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1852476681958666270

Looks like some folks are finally realizing there is herding in the polls.

 

[FosterCoachK82]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1852476681958666270

Looks like some folks are finally realizing there is herding in the polls.

Yeah they are just making it up now. If it’s not within 2 points they’re throwing out the poll or massaging it to make it close.

 

[burnspbesq]

Things you can't unsee.

Alas, I came across the video of Trump miming oral sex on his microphone at a rally last night.

Eww, gross.

Drudge is all over it.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1852793337259946209

 

[SkyBrickey]

There will be a lot of smart, big money, hedge fund types studying the election data and pouring money into the betting markets in the next 72 hours.

I know not everyone agrees with me, but if there's a clear winner, the betting markets will call the election on Tuesday night before the news services do.

There's no reason to manipulate any markets late on Tuesday. That's what I'll be watching...

 

[Bostondevil]

Eww, gross.

Drudge is all over it.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1852793337259946209

Agreed.

My problem with that video is how much it will undermine the country's positions in future foreign policy negotiations. Why would the leader of another country take Trump even remotely seriously after that? The only type of politician who would do something like that at a rally in front of cameras is one that has absolutely no impulse control and it is impossible to negotiate in good faith with someone who has no impulse control.

Also, it's embarrassing, this video is forever. He's not auditioning for reality TV or a comedy show, he wants to be President of the United States.