DukieInBrasil
Member
i thought that was Mason?
2024-2025 Men’s Basketball Season: General Offseason Discussion
- Thread starter cato
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I don't think Khaman will get 25 mpg at the beginning of the season. It seems to take the big guys longer to get used to ACC play. I don't see anyone predicting Evans getting 15-20 minutes. That could throw a monkey wrench into Jon's wanting to get older scheme. If K2 is as good as you think he is, he will be off to the NBA next season with; Cooper, Khaman and maybe one of Tyrese and Caleb. Then you have the transfers that will be gone. I believe those are, Mason and Sion.
GoDuke!
During the regular season, you are correct. I like Duke to make noise in the tournament. Having 1-2 areas of weakness on defense tends to send you home earlier than you'd like. In 2022, Duke had the #1 ranked offense. They rode that offense to a two seed and the Final Four. They lost in the Final Four to some team that suffers from the delusion that they are significant in pick a noun. I can't remember the team's name, but they aren't important. Duke performed slightly better than their season average offensively. Defensively, it was a different story. Duke performed like a middle-of-the-road ranked defense (around 170). That team had Mark Williams in the paint. Most would consider him, at a minimum, a very good defender. He had a high-quality backup in Theo John. Junior Wendell Moore was a very good defender on the perimeter. Trevor Keels was an okay to good defender. That team ended the season just outside the top-50 on defense.
The weaknesses on defense hurt a lot more than some people here realize. When the drop-off from your 7th to 8th man is a cliff, you must live with those weaknesses and hope they don't bite you.
This is not true. If it was, every 6-7, 6-6 player would be an average ACC wing defender. Kon is also not remotely as athletic as Justise.
You know I think it's a huge mistake to play Cooper at the 4. At 205 and 17, he is giving up too much physicality. Do you know who may not be giving up too much physicality? Kon. If he is really 6-7 (not 6-5 but we'll call him 6-7) and if he is a lean 217 pounds, he'd be in the ballpark. He would have to defensive rebound at a respectable rate (>17-18%), but it's doable.
And no, I am not ready to buy a place on Kon Island... yet.
There are still a lot of ifs out there.DukieInBrasil
Member
Good thing for Khaman that the beginning of the season is not ACC play then.
I think it's absolutely right that defense has been a problem for freshmen, which is why many of our freshmen-heavy teams had poor team defense - especially at the beginning of the season. But I don't think the problem is quickness and athleticism (after all, players don't tend to improve much there).
Some freshmen struggle defensively because of lack of strength, which can be added over time. More importantly, it takes time to learn and execute Duke-level team defensive concepts. That's why some of those teams improved significantly over the season.
SkyBrickey
Member
If Jon's 8-man rotational scheme turns out to be Proctor/Foster/James at the 1/2, Cooper/Maliq/Khaman at the 4/5 and Kon/Gillis at the 3, then it sets up perfectly an offensive-defensive substitution scheme if Kon's defense is in any way a weak link.
Playing against a team like the Heels with a lightning quick wing like Ian Jackson? Then maybe Gillis gets that assignment and plays more minutes against UNC.
And to Azz's point, I do think it could be a game-by-game situational thing on who Cooper and Gillis and Kon and James and Evans cover. All are 6-6 to 6-9 and pretty capable of guarding 2-4. With all the screening, we are switching constantly anyway...
I think quickness and athleticism can help mitigate some of the problems. Sean was a great example of this. Surprisingly to me, he spent the entire season not knowing where to be on the floor, yet he was an above-average defender.
Your last sentence got me thinking. I had the same assumption but figured I'd take a look at the numbers. Only 2 teams since 2011 have improved significantly defensively over the season. I thought it would be more. Several actually got worse. 2015 (hooray!) and 2018 (fargin' bad call) were the only teams that got significantly better. In 2018, there was a very significant improvement.
SkyBrickey
Member
A big component of playing good defense is focus and level of effort. Having a deep team really helps with this. A guy misses an assignment or loses focus and gets beaten off the dribble? Jon gives him the hook.
This depth, plus having a number of above average defenders like Proctor, Gillis, Flagg and Brown, is why I think we are poised for a top 5 defense this season.
This depth, plus having a number of above average defenders like Proctor, Gillis, Flagg and Brown, is why I think we are poised for a top 5 defense this season.
scottdude8
Moderator, front page and podcast contributor
Surprised this hasn't made its way to the forum yet, but CBS Sports did an anonymous poll of 100 coaches and asked who would be the best player in the country this year, and Cooper was the run away winner.
There are some great quotes in there, but here's the one that stands out to me (because it vibes with my intuition):
The bolding is mine, and goes with something I said on the podcast a month or so back: I think there's a scenario in which Cooper is the best player in the country and we're winning tons of games, but that doesn't necessarily translate into eye popping statistical numbers. If that's the case but Dickinson averages 20 and 10, Coop may not get the official awards he deserves... which I think we'll all be fine with if we're celebrating a National Title and a No. 1 overall pick next year
CBS also asked who the best team would be, and Duke came in fourth, albeit well below the two clear leaders in Kansas and Alabama. The quote on Duke calls us "the most talented team in the country" but, of course, hedges on the reality that we don't know how that will all come together like we do with teams like Kansas and Alabama who have more continuity.
There are some great quotes in there, but here's the one that stands out to me (because it vibes with my intuition):
The bolding is mine, and goes with something I said on the podcast a month or so back: I think there's a scenario in which Cooper is the best player in the country and we're winning tons of games, but that doesn't necessarily translate into eye popping statistical numbers. If that's the case but Dickinson averages 20 and 10, Coop may not get the official awards he deserves... which I think we'll all be fine with if we're celebrating a National Title and a No. 1 overall pick next year
CBS also asked who the best team would be, and Duke came in fourth, albeit well below the two clear leaders in Kansas and Alabama. The quote on Duke calls us "the most talented team in the country" but, of course, hedges on the reality that we don't know how that will all come together like we do with teams like Kansas and Alabama who have more continuity.
Yeah...I think Bill Self is getting a lot of deference there, because his team kinda fell apart at the end of the year. You can point to injuries, players who didn't pan out leading to lack of depth, etc., but they definitely didn't "come together".
Surprised this hasn't made its way to the forum yet, but CBS Sports did an anonymous poll of 100 coaches and asked who would be the best player in the country this year, and Cooper was the run away winner.
There are some great quotes in there, but here's the one that stands out to me (because it vibes with my intuition):
The bolding is mine, and goes with something I said on the podcast a month or so back: I think there's a scenario in which Cooper is the best player in the country and we're winning tons of games, but that doesn't necessarily translate into eye popping statistical numbers. If that's the case but Dickinson averages 20 and 10, Coop may not get the official awards he deserves... which I think we'll all be fine with if we're celebrating a National Title and a No. 1 overall pick next year
CBS also asked who the best team would be, and Duke came in fourth, albeit well below the two clear leaders in Kansas and Alabama. The quote on Duke calls us "the most talented team in the country" but, of course, hedges on the reality that we don't know how that will all come together like we do with teams like Kansas and Alabama who have more continuity.
I thought this was a funny quote about RJ Davis from one of the coaches:
RJ can do anything other than lead the nation in scoring I guess.
jipops
Member
This is not true. If it was, every 6-7, 6-6 player would be an average ACC wing defender. Kon is also not remotely as athletic as Justise.
You know I think it's a huge mistake to play Cooper at the 4. At 205 and 17, he is giving up too much physicality. Do you know who may not be giving up too much physicality? Kon. If he is really 6-7 (not 6-5 but we'll call him 6-7) and if he is a lean 217 pounds, he'd be in the ballpark. He would have to defensive rebound at a respectable rate (>17-18%), but it's doable.
And no, I am not ready to buy a place on Kon Island... yet.
My guess is we're likely to see Gillis fill in a lot of minutes at the big forward spot - most notably on defense. I base this on the fact that he is a pretty physical guy and took on the DJ Burns assignment in the national semi-final game. I hope to see him play a lot of starters minutes and close-out minutes in that he can play either forward spot defensively (which is huge for Cooper), gives us a legit 3pt threat (shot 46.8% last season), and has all the experience to handle game pressure.
I'm glad you pointed this out. There has been a pretty base assumption that kinks in defense will steadily improve but I've been skeptical that this commonly plays out this way. And in 2022 we got notably worse. But that may have very well had something to do with AJ Griffin seeing increased playing time as he got over injury and his shot was falling. Before he was heavily in the rotation that season we were a solid defensive team.
You are correct. Duke's defense peaked with ND on 1/31/2022. Up to that point, Duke had the 11th ranked offense and the 21st ranked defense. That defense typically is Natty worthy but it is in the ballpark, From 2/1/2022 on, Duke had the 1st ranked offense and the 111th ranked defense (no my finger didn't stutter). Please tell me again how it is okay to have one bad defender (I'm not saying you are saying this jipops).
2022 didn't have just one bad defender; I'd venture they only had two plus-defenders in the rotation (Williams and Moore). But didn't they nevertheless win the ACC, then make the Final Four and nearly the championship game, but for a few lucky shots from whoever our opponent was in that game? Do you think they would have done better playing Griffin (RSCI #18) less in favor of a better defender?
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jipops
Member
And just to keep going on this point - I speculate this next roster has at worst 5 grade A defenders. Whether that translates to top-level team defense remains to be seen but that sort of talent is there. Foster and Maluach could end up being solid supplemental defenders or better. I do think Scheyer is going to want to leverage that to its fullest. Which is why I'm speculating on Gillis being heavy in the rotation mix.
I think it's plausible. Obviously we'll never know for sure.
Yes. In that alternate universe game that by all accounts never really occurred Duke hypothetically played like the 1st ranked offense in the country and like the 170th ranked defense. Duke had at least 3 plus defenders (Williams, Moore, and John) in the rotation and I'd call Keels an above average defender but probably not plus. Paolo wasn't good overall on defense but he had his moments.
You're right about Theo John - but his playing time had little to do with AJ's. And I'll take that season's results (as long as I can forget the final opponent) without retrospectively tinkering with Coach K's lineup choices.