Way-Too-Early Projected Lineups and Stat Lines for the 2024-2025 Season

[SkyBrickey]

Evans is rated higher according to composite rankings and 24/7.

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In recent years I've seen people go to RSCI for the definitive final recruit rankings as it's a "composite" picture. Not sure if this is right or wrong, but in the final rankings Kon is T14 and Isaiah is 16.

Men's Recruiting Services Consensus Index (RSCI) Rankings - 2024 | College Basketball at Sports-Reference.com

Men's Recruiting Services Consensus Index (RSCI) Rankings - 2024

www.sports-reference.com

I remember Kon having a late rise and Isaiah having a late fall in their respective rankings. For most of the recruiting cycle Isaiah was the higher rated recruit.

 

[SkyBrickey]

In recent years I've seen people go to RSCI for the definitive final recruit rankings as it's a "composite" picture. Not sure if this is right or wrong, but in the final rankings Kon is T14 and Isaiah is 16.

Men's Recruiting Services Consensus Index (RSCI) Rankings - 2024 | College Basketball at Sports-Reference.com

Men's Recruiting Services Consensus Index (RSCI) Rankings - 2024

www.sports-reference.com

I remember Kon having a late rise and Isaiah having a late fall in their respective rankings. For most of the recruiting cycle Isaiah was the higher rated recruit.

RSCI apparently comes up with a consensus across 100 recruiting experts/services. On3 for example had Kon at 18 and Isaiah at 27. Couldn't find ESPN's final rankings - maybe behind a paywall...

 

[jipops]

RSCI apparently comes up with a consensus across 100 recruiting experts/services. On3 for example had Kon at 18 and Isaiah at 27. Couldn't find ESPN's final rankings - maybe behind a paywall...

Espn has Evans higher than Kon. But the RSCI bolsters your point.

I continue to have serious doubts that Kon is any significant factor this season. And I think it’s also likely the case that neither Kon nor Isaiah see much time when January rolls around.

But I know I’m already beating a dead horse with this take.

 

[SkyBrickey]

Espn has Evans higher than Kon. But the RSCI bolsters your point.

I continue to have serious doubts that Kon is any significant factor this season. And I think it’s also likely the case that neither Kon nor Isaiah see much time when January rolls around.

But I know I’m already beating a dead horse with this take.

You saw my research in the other thread that all our guards/wings ranked 10-20 over the past 10 years (10 of them) averaged 29mpg as freshmen and none played less than 24mpg?

You just think James and Gillis are clearly ahead of Kon and Isaiah?

It's why I don't think both Kon and Isaiah will get 24mpg. But I'm leaning into my eye test and the summer reports on Kon to make a bet that he's ahead of Isaiah right now and will play ~25mpg.

It will be interesting to see how this plays out for sure. Tough 5th year guys vs NBA first-round talented freshmen.

 

[jipops]

You saw my research in the other thread that all our guards/wings ranked 10-20 over the past 10 years (10 of them) averaged 29mpg as freshmen and none played less than 24mpg?

You just think James and Gillis are clearly ahead of Kon and Isaiah?

It's why I don't think both Kon and Isaiah will get 24mpg. But I'm leaning into my eye test and the summer reports on Kon to make a bet that he's ahead of Isaiah right now and will play ~25mpg.

It will be interesting to see how this plays out for sure. Tough 5th year guys vs NBA first-round talented freshmen.

I’m not saying it’s clear, I’m saying it’s highly likely. Gillis has been a regular with heavy minutes on a Final Four team. Though Sion comes from a lower profile program he’s far more ready to step in and all eye tests show he is skilled. I also think the assumption that both Isiah and Kon are 1st round talents in 2025 is a substantial leap. Just making the transition to college usually doesn’t come easy. And as I’ve said somewhere earlier in this thread, I think the buzz surrounding Kon is much more about what he can produce after his 1st year at Duke, not how he’s going to factor this season. But we’ll see.

 

[SkyBrickey]

I’m not saying it’s clear, I’m saying it’s highly likely. Gillis has been a regular with heavy minutes on a Final Four team. Though Sion comes from a lower profile program he’s far more ready to step in and all eye tests show he is skilled. I also think the assumption that both Isiah and Kon are 1st round talents in 2025 is a substantial leap. Just making the transition to college usually doesn’t come easy. And as I’ve said somewhere earlier in this thread, I think the buzz surrounding Kon is much more about what he can produce after his 1st year at Duke, not how he’s going to factor this season. But we’ll see.

Ok fair enough. Curious, do you think McCain would have played 24mpg on this team or gotten buried on the bench like Kon and Isaiah? Because he and Kon are ranked about the same and there's been more buzz for Kon this summer than there was for Jared last summer.

Not trying to be argumentative. Genuinely curious how much you think McCain would play on this team.

 

[jipops]

Ok fair enough. Curious, do you think McCain would have played 24mpg on this team or gotten buried on the bench like Kon and Isaiah? Because he and Kon are ranked about the same and there's been more buzz for Kon this summer than there was for Jared last summer.

Not trying to be argumentative. Genuinely curious how much you think McCain would play on this team.

McCain was the best shooter in the class and had the profile of a combo guard. This indicated he could generate offense for himself and others. There was tons of buzz about Jared. His competition for minutes as a wing or off guard were Foster, Blakes, and Schutt. I thought McCain would play a lot. Still, he ended up beating my expectations by the end of the season finishing as our best guard. I admit I did not see him as a 1st rounder before the start of the season. The kid that surprised me the most though was Foster. Though his minutes came about as a result of necessity when Proctor went down. Still, towards the end of the season he showed he belonged on the floor.

McCain and Kneuppel are not at all the same.

 

[SkyBrickey]

McCain was the best shooter in the class and had the profile of a combo guard. This indicated he could generate offense for himself and others. There was tons of buzz about Jared. His competition for minutes as a wing or off guard were Foster, Blakes, and Schutt. I thought McCain would play a lot. Still, he ended up beating my expectations by the end of the season finishing as our best guard. I admit I did not see him as a 1st rounder before the start of the season. The kid that surprised me the most though was Foster. Though his minutes came about as a result of necessity when Proctor went down. Still, towards the end of the season he showed he belonged on the floor.

McCain and Kneuppel are not at all the same.

Ok jipops! But you dodged my question on whether McCain would get 24mpg on this team.

I've seen multiple analysts say Kon is the best shooter in the class. And he's a 3-level scorer who is 4 inches taller and about 15 pounds heavier than McCain. They are also effectively ranked the same coming in.

I don't know how much Kon's lack of quickness will hold him back. But I think it's very fair to expect him to be a McCain-level talent coming in.

We agree on Foster! I expect probably Foster, maybe Kon, to be our second leading scorer. I think Caleb is going to have a big year.

 

[jipops]

Ok jipops! But you dodged my question on whether McCain would get 24mpg on this team.

I've seen multiple analysts say Kon is the best shooter in the class. And he's a 3-level scorer who is 4 inches taller and about 15 pounds heavier than McCain. They are also effectively ranked the same coming in.

I don't know how much Kon's lack of quickness will hold him back. But I think it's very fair to expect him to be a McCain-level talent coming in.

We agree on Foster! I expect probably Foster, maybe Kon, to be our second leading scorer. I think Caleb is going to have a big year.

It’s not an apples-to-apples question. And it’s not clear the framing. If McCain was still on the roster we would not have Sion. And a sophomore McCain would be preseason All American easy. He’d get all the minutes he wanted.

If McCain were a part of this freshman class we would not have both Kon and Isiah on the roster. Regardless of the similarities of their rankings I definitely regarded Jared as a better player coming in than I do either of Kon or Isiah. So yeah, I do think Jared would get a heavy minutes distribution with a hypothetical different roster than what we see now.

I will be thoroughly shocked if Kon is “McCain level” talent coming in. That is such a huge stretch to me.

 

[SkyBrickey]

It’s not an apples-to-apples question. And it’s not clear the framing. If McCain was still on the roster we would not have Sion. And a sophomore McCain would be preseason All American easy. He’d get all the minutes he wanted.

If McCain were a part of this freshman class we would not have both Kon and Isiah on the roster. Regardless of the similarities of their rankings I definitely regarded Jared as a better player coming in than I do either of Kon or Isiah. So yeah, I do think Jared would get a heavy minutes distribution with a hypothetical different roster than what we see now.

I will be thoroughly shocked if Kon is “McCain level” talent coming in. That is such a huge stretch to me.

Sorry, these expectations of Kon are really interesting to me. Here are the five Duke wing recruits ranked right on top of Kon with their mpg and ppg as freshmen.

I'm keeping Tre Jones in here because we played him at the wing, and not the point, his freshman year.

Jared McCain (12) 31.6, 14.3
Tre Jones (13) 34.2, 9.4
Trent Jr (14) 33.9, 14.5
Frank Jackson (14) 24.9, 10.9
Winslow (13) 29.1, 12.6

As you can see, McCain's performance last year wasn't really much of an outlier for where he and Kon are ranked.

We definitely are a deeper team. I doubt anyone expects Kon to play 30mpg. I definitely don't.

But expecting Kon to play 25mpg and average 10ppg seems pretty reasonable to me.

 

[jipops]

Ok jipops! But you dodged my question on whether McCain would get 24mpg on this team.

I've seen multiple analysts say Kon is the best shooter in the class. And he's a 3-level scorer who is 4 inches taller and about 15 pounds heavier than McCain. They are also effectively ranked the same coming in.

I don't know how much Kon's lack of quickness will hold him back. But I think it's very fair to expect him to be a McCain-level talent coming in.

We agree on Foster! I expect probably Foster, maybe Kon, to be our second leading scorer. I think Caleb is going to have a big year.

It’s maybe worth adding that TJ Power was widely regarded as one of 2023’s best shooters as well. Scheyer himself commented on this early in the season. Yet TJ needed a lot of space to get it off, never could get comfortable with his shot, and his non-existent D kept him off the floor.

 

[SkyBrickey]

It’s maybe worth adding that TJ Power was widely regarded as one of 2023’s best shooters as well. Scheyer himself commented on this early in the season. Yet TJ needed a lot of space to get it off, never could get comfortable with his shot, and his non-existent D kept him off the floor.

See that's the thing. Some people are comparing Kon to TJ when he's a totally different level recruit.

I think that's the false comparison. We will find out in a few months!

 

[azzefkram]

I have no idea who this guy Tristan Newman is - whether he has any special insights into the team - but his projections seem pretty reasonable to me except for maybe having Evans ahead of K2 and Gillis in minutes played...

He also has Maliq playing all his minutes at the 5. I think we may see Maliq and Khaman on the floor together some.

I contend this is just a lazy take if you don't allocate the minutes. He has his bench listed as Gillis, James, K2 and Evans. Which one of these guys is playing 15mpg at the 5 backing up Maluach?

I think these two posts show a bit of confirmation bias. Finally figured out multi quote. Yay me.

 

[jipops]

Sorry, these expectations of Kon are really interesting to me. Here are the five Duke wing recruits ranked right on top of Kon with their mpg and ppg as freshmen.

I'm keeping Tre Jones in here because we played him at the wing, and not the point, his freshman year.

Jared McCain (12) 31.6, 14.3
Tre Jones (13) 34.2, 9.4
Trent Jr (14) 33.9, 14.5
Frank Jackson (14) 24.9, 10.9
Winslow (13) 29.1, 12.6

As you can see, McCain's performance last year wasn't really much of an outlier for where he and Kon are ranked.

We definitely are a deeper team. I doubt anyone expects Kon to play 30mpg. I definitely don't.

I don’t see that as being definite. I wouldn’t be a bit surprised in the slightest if we’re a 7 man rotation by January. With this group you better have an A- game at worst on D or you’re not playing.

Brown
Flagg
Proctor
Foster
James
Maluach
Gillis

 

[jipops]

See that's the thing. Some people are comparing Kon to TJ when he's a totally different level recruit.

I think that's the false comparison. We will find out in a few months!

He was #21 in the RSCI. Not quite as high as Kon but definitely not “totally different level”.

 

[SkyBrickey]

Sorry, these expectations of Kon are really interesting to me. Here are the five Duke wing recruits ranked right on top of Kon with their mpg and ppg as freshmen.

I'm keeping Tre Jones in here because we played him at the wing, and not the point, his freshman year.

Jared McCain (12) 31.6, 14.3
Tre Jones (13) 34.2, 9.4
Trent Jr (14) 33.9, 14.5
Frank Jackson (14) 24.9, 10.9
Winslow (13) 29.1, 12.6

As you can see, McCain's performance last year wasn't really much of an outlier for where he and Kon are ranked.

We definitely are a deeper team. I doubt anyone expects Kon to play 30mpg. I definitely don't.

But expecting Kon to play 25mpg and average 10ppg seems pretty reasonable to me.

I think these two posts show a bit of confirmation bias. Finally figured out multi quote. Yay me.

Oh for sure. I'm looking for evidence Kon will be a star.

Azz, I actually think I'm just as high on Maliq as you are. I'm just not starting him at the 4 alongside Cooper and Khaman.

 

[DBKilby]

He was #21 in the RSCI. Not quite as high as Kon but definitely not “totally different level”.

Kon is a much higher level of recruit than Power. The 2023 class was one of the worst classes in over 20 yrs. You had Wagner, Collier, Bradshaw and Edwards all in the top 5 and the highest pick of those was Collier going 29th. Two of those guys transferred and the other went undrafted. You can throw in Mgbako and Xavier Booker who were top 10 guys that are both returning to school. That is unprecedented for that many guys to bust. We can probably blame the lock downs for player development and scouts not seeing them for accurate evaluations.

 

[SkyBrickey]

He was #21 in the RSCI. Not quite as high as Kon but definitely not “totally different level”.

I pulled all the wings that are ranked similarly to Kon. If you want to toss TJ in there go ahead, but he's an outlier.

I wouldn't be shocked if TJ averages 14ppg at UVA this year. The reality is you have to be exceptional to break into Duke's rotation as a freshman.

 

[SkyBrickey]

I don’t see that as being definite. I wouldn’t be a bit surprised in the slightest if we’re a 7 man rotation by January. With this group you better have an A- game at worst on D or you’re not playing.

Brown
Flagg
Proctor
Foster
James
Maluach
Gillis

You could be right. I definitely think all 7 of those guys will be in the rotation. But I think Kon will force his way in too with his elite offense and will probably be our fifth starter by EOY. We will see!

 

[azzefkram]

Sorry, these expectations of Kon are really interesting to me. Here are the five Duke wing recruits ranked right on top of Kon with their mpg and ppg as freshmen.

I'm keeping Tre Jones in here because we played him at the wing, and not the point, his freshman year.

Jared McCain (12) 31.6, 14.3
Tre Jones (13) 34.2, 9.4
Trent Jr (14) 33.9, 14.5
Frank Jackson (14) 24.9, 10.9
Winslow (13) 29.1, 12.6

As you can see, McCain's performance last year wasn't really much of an outlier for where he and Kon are ranked.

We definitely are a deeper team. I doubt anyone expects Kon to play 30mpg. I definitely don't.

But expecting Kon to play 25mpg and average 10ppg seems pretty reasonable to me.

Tre was definitely not a wing as a freshman. He was a point guard. He may have shared ball handling with RJ and Zion, but he was the PG. Cooper and Caleb will probably be handling the ball a fair amount this season. That will not make Tyrese a wing.

McCain could play the 2 and 3. Assuming Jeremy played 20 minutes at the 2 (and another 10 at the 1), that left 60 minutes at the 2 and 3 for Jared, Caleb, TJ, Jaylen, and Jaden. Minimal competition for Jared and Caleb. I can go through the same exercise with each player on your list and end up in the same place.

Let's do Kon now. Kon can play the 2, 3, and let's stretch a little bit 4. Caleb will be playing the role of Jeremy and take up 20 minutes at the 2. That will leave 100 minutes available. Cooper will gobble up 30 of those minutes. We are down to 70 minutes. Competing for those minutes will be Kon, Evans, Sion, Mason, Maliq, and Darren. Even if you assume that Darren isn't in the mix, that is significantly more and better competition than anything Jared faced. It is not remotely unreasonable to assume that Kon may not get 24 minutes per game. What happened in prior seasons is not applicable to the current situation.