NFL 2024-25 General Discussion

DUKIECB said:
Lions beat the Packers last night moving them to 12-1. They keep losing players to injury on defense but keep on winning. I've become a big fan of Dan Campbell but that decision to to for it on 4th and 1 from your own 31 made no sense to me.
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I think the value of it goes beyond the particulars of winning this particular game. It was Campbell broadcasting to his team that "I believe in you. I believe in your toughness. Your clutchness. Your ability to win battles when we need them." That kind of thing goes a long way with players. They don't forget it. THey need their coach to believe in them in the difficult moments and Campbell has let this team know that he does.
 
WillJ said:
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The analytics apparently said go for it from the 31, and perhaps the calculation went something like this. If you get it, the value of the continued possession is perhaps worth roughly 3.5 points. If you don't get it, you lose something like 2 points in expectation, i.e, the difference in expected points from a Packers' drive that starts at the Lions 31 versus, say, their own 25 after a Jack Fox punt. You can of course attach different values than 3.5 and 2, but I can see how reasonable assumptions would lead to a "go for it" calculation.
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Excellent explanation of how analytics would handle this particular situation (approximately) and providing an example of how analytics works in general.

The only thing missing is that you also need the probability you get the first down to do the overall calculation. With your #’s he should go for it if the prob of getting a 1st down is over 37%. (2/5.5)
 
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Steven43 said:
Okay, I’m just going to say it: Josh Allen is the toughest, strongest SOB we’ve ever had at the quarterback position. Dude is just a badass.

I can’t say enough superlatives about him; he’s just that good.
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Agreed. I love him as well. Which makes it that much more tragic that he’ll lose to Mahomes yet again this year in the playoffs.
 
I think Tom Brady has done an excellent job commentating today during the Bills v Rams game. He is finally allowing his instincts to take over and letting go of the idea of playing it safe while not offending anyone.

Additionally, this has been a helluva fun game to watch.
 
Steven43 said:
I think Tom Brady has done an excellent job commentating today during the Bills v Rams game. He is finally allowing his instincts to take over and letting go of the idea of playing it safe while not offending anyone.

Additionally, this has been a helluva fun game to watch.
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You realize Duke basketball is playing now? I watched the football game until Duke started.
 
all praise the DVR, one of the greatest inventions of the past 100 years. Had dinner at a friend's house, came home and watched the game starting at 7:30...had confidence we'd come back after the bad start, pretty much a Duke trademark (as disconcerting as it may be).
 
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