sagegrouse
Member
Insightful post, as usual. I wonder whether this is now a different UNC team, with a different quantitative set of metrics, now that there has been an outbreak of straight-thinking on the UNC bench..
MBB: Duke vs. UNC (Saturday 3/8, 6:30pm ET, ESPN) Pregame and In-Game Thread
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Maybe. It would have to be a LOT different to matter.
So whats interesting about the game in Cameron, K was asked if he thought the team was too tight or couldn't handle the pressure of that last game, and he said he thought it was the opposite problem, they were too loose, and maybe didn't take it as serious as they should until it was too late. I don't think thats going to be a problem for this team, they are going to see it as a huge opportunity to put their foots on the Holes throats.
SkyBrickey
Member
So in 2022 we were #12 and they were #29 in KP - a 17 spot advantage.
And as other posters have noted, over the past 6 games we've been #1 and they've been #18 - a 17 spot advantage.
Unlike some, I do believe in random coincidences.
MChambers
Member
Not sure where to put this, but Brian Geisinger has his latest, another piece on Duke's offensive sets:
briangeisinger.substack.com
Duke isn’t reinventing the wheel on offense, but Scheyer and his staff have done an excellent job blending fundamental basketball actions — down screens, staggered screens, step-up ball screens, Floppy — with modern, contemporary spacing components.
The concepts aren’t stilted or disjointed, though, nor is the offense robotic or frenzied. When Duke’s at full hum, there’s a flow as the actions bridge from one to the next, making the defense handle multiple rotations and ball reversals — with an emphasis on floor balance and making the extra pass.
Having playmakers like Flagg and Knueppel working in sync with a lob threat like Maluach, alongside a group of connective passers—Proctor, James, Gillis and Brown—certainly doesn’t hurt. Each of them is willing to pass up a good shot for themselves to set up an even better opportunity for a teammate.
Blending Past & Present: How Duke revamped its offense with a modern twist on classic tactics
Exploring Duke's 5-out spacing and use of off-ball actions, which are fueling a record-setting offense around Cooper Flagg
briangeisinger.substack.com
Remember early when we were a bit stilted offensively and Jon was wondering aloud if he needed to add a little more structure. He was, from the start, investing in these guys to build this flowing, reactive, hard to predict offense. And as we’ve improved, that’s when he had them start to hit the gas. Kind of like learning/practicing a musical instrument. Start with some structure - scales. Add some improv around said scales, but at a reasonably slow tempo. And then when you have that dialed, go full Coltrane, and blow!Not sure where to put this, but Brian Geisinger has his latest, another piece on Duke's offensive sets:
Duke isn’t reinventing the wheel on offense, but Scheyer and his staff have done an excellent job blending fundamental basketball actions — down screens, staggered screens, step-up ball screens, Floppy — with modern, contemporary spacing components.The concepts aren’t stilted or disjointed, though, nor is the offense robotic or frenzied. When Duke’s at full hum, there’s a flow as the actions bridge from one to the next, making the defense handle multiple rotations and ball reversals — with an emphasis on floor balance and making the extra pass.Having playmakers like Flagg and Knueppel working in sync with a lob threat like Maluach, alongside a group of connective passers—Proctor, James, Gillis and Brown—certainly doesn’t hurt. Each of them is willing to pass up a good shot for themselves to set up an even better opportunity for a teammate.Blending Past & Present: How Duke revamped its offense with a modern twist on classic tactics
Exploring Duke's 5-out spacing and use of off-ball actions, which are fueling a record-setting offense around Cooper Flagg
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In 2022, over the prior six games leading up to UNC @ Duke, Duke was #1 in Torvik and UNC was 38th. In an interesting tidbit, Duke had the #1 offense and the 79th defense. UNC was 30th and 60th, respectively. Duke would go on to have their 2nd worst defensive performance of the season.
NYBri
Member
Sporks for Coltrane reference.
kako
Member
Just something I saw on goheels.com:
ESPN GameDay in Chapel Hill History
Jan. 20, 2007 – UNC 77, Georgia Tech 61
Jan. 17, 2009 – UNC 82, Miami 65
March 9, 2013 – UNC 53, Duke 69
March 7, 2015 – UNC 77, Duke 84
Feb. 18, 2017 – UNC 65, Virginia 41
March 4, 2017 – UNC 90, Duke 83
Feb. 8, 2018 – UNC 82, Duke 78
March 9, 2019 – UNC 79, Duke 70
Feb. 8, 2020 – UNC 96, Duke 98 OT
Feb. 5, 2022 – UNC 64, Duke 87
March 4, 2023 – Duke 62, UNC 57
Feb. 3, 2024 — UNC 93, Duke 84
If you believe this, Duke is 5-4 in Chapel Hill on when GameDay is there. I recall the 2020 game most fondly, myself...
9F
ESPN GameDay in Chapel Hill History
Jan. 20, 2007 – UNC 77, Georgia Tech 61
Jan. 17, 2009 – UNC 82, Miami 65
March 9, 2013 – UNC 53, Duke 69
March 7, 2015 – UNC 77, Duke 84
Feb. 18, 2017 – UNC 65, Virginia 41
March 4, 2017 – UNC 90, Duke 83
Feb. 8, 2018 – UNC 82, Duke 78
March 9, 2019 – UNC 79, Duke 70
Feb. 8, 2020 – UNC 96, Duke 98 OT
Feb. 5, 2022 – UNC 64, Duke 87
March 4, 2023 – Duke 62, UNC 57
Feb. 3, 2024 — UNC 93, Duke 84
If you believe this, Duke is 5-4 in Chapel Hill on when GameDay is there. I recall the 2020 game most fondly, myself...
9F
When we play with focused energy, effort, and enthusiasm, we will kill them.
AustinDevil
Member
Anyone comparing Saturday’s game to K’s last game (loss) in Cameron needs to account for the fact that Duke inexplicably chose to turbo-motivate the Holes by giving them a chance not just to spoil K’s last home game but to do so while making a few dozen former Devils standing there in matching family-reunion-style t-shirts look like absolute fools. Which, you know, the Holes did.
brevity
Member
Jon Scheyer had a pregame press conference earlier today, and while GoDuke has transcribed some quotes, I've only been able to find the video from Rodd Baxley, within this Fayetteville Observer article. (There are reprints/reposts in the Asheville Citizen-Times and Wilmington Star-News, but it's all from Baxley.)
Coach Scheyer: "It's been obvious to me, I think Hubert [Davis] and their staff have done a great job of adapting and continuing to evolve as a team. Obviously, they're playing bigger, lineup changes, but they're ultimately playing the same guys. I think the biggest thing that's different is just the confidence level that they're playing with, the aggressiveness, the cohesiveness. They're on the biggest winning streak for the season. They're scoring over 80 points a game. The defensive challenge for us is going to be a big challenge. And then, playing at home, they play a fast pace, and even faster the last couple of weeks. Great respect for them and everything they've done. I really feel they're playing the best basketball that they've been playing all year."
"Maliq [Brown] has been working so hard. Maliq's been telling me for two weeks 'I'm ready', when he hasn't been. But that's his mindset, to be ready. He has not practiced yet. He's going to try today to do some but we're not going to risk anything unless he's completely ready to go. We'll have to see today and tomorrow, if there's a chance, but he literally hasn't practiced one time with us yet."
Meanwhile, Inside Carolina has YouTube videos of head coach Hubert Davis and leading scorer RJ Davis from today.
Coach Davis: "I think there's a number of things that we've improved on... maybe the consistency on both ends, just the consistency of doing the little things on the defensive end, in terms of boxing out, rebounding, trying to defend without fouling, protecting the paint. Offensively, doing a better job taking care of the basketball, getting to the offensive glass, not taking bad shots, getting good shots. I think that's contributed to us scoring really well of late... Doing the things that allow you to be successful, I think we're doing them consistently, well, more."
RJ Davis: "My freshman year, I had my big brothers, like Garrison [Brooks], Sterling [Manley], [Andrew] Platek, Leaky [Black], even [Armando Bacot] was older than me... and now, it's like they're all gone, and I'm the only one left. It was kind of weird at first, but I definitely enjoyed being the older guy. I may be old, but I'm still young, and having this young group with me made me feel like I was still in college a little bit, rather than feeling left out, so I've enjoyed it."
I feel bad about being able to embed just the UNC videos here, but this is my lingering complaint about Duke's insufficient local media coverage. I renew my suggestion: redirect about $1 million in the annual NIL budget to @jimsumner so that he can show up to these events, record them with an HD camera, and post them to YouTube promptly. (Ask him. Maybe he'd be willing to do it for only $750,000/year.)
Maliq Brown injury update: Jon Scheyer provides update on Duke basketball player ahead of UNC game
Duke basketball's Maliq Brown has missed four games with a shoulder injury. Head coach Jon Scheyer provided an update on Thursday afternoon.
www.fayobserver.com
Coach Scheyer: "It's been obvious to me, I think Hubert [Davis] and their staff have done a great job of adapting and continuing to evolve as a team. Obviously, they're playing bigger, lineup changes, but they're ultimately playing the same guys. I think the biggest thing that's different is just the confidence level that they're playing with, the aggressiveness, the cohesiveness. They're on the biggest winning streak for the season. They're scoring over 80 points a game. The defensive challenge for us is going to be a big challenge. And then, playing at home, they play a fast pace, and even faster the last couple of weeks. Great respect for them and everything they've done. I really feel they're playing the best basketball that they've been playing all year."
"Maliq [Brown] has been working so hard. Maliq's been telling me for two weeks 'I'm ready', when he hasn't been. But that's his mindset, to be ready. He has not practiced yet. He's going to try today to do some but we're not going to risk anything unless he's completely ready to go. We'll have to see today and tomorrow, if there's a chance, but he literally hasn't practiced one time with us yet."
Meanwhile, Inside Carolina has YouTube videos of head coach Hubert Davis and leading scorer RJ Davis from today.
Coach Davis: "I think there's a number of things that we've improved on... maybe the consistency on both ends, just the consistency of doing the little things on the defensive end, in terms of boxing out, rebounding, trying to defend without fouling, protecting the paint. Offensively, doing a better job taking care of the basketball, getting to the offensive glass, not taking bad shots, getting good shots. I think that's contributed to us scoring really well of late... Doing the things that allow you to be successful, I think we're doing them consistently, well, more."
RJ Davis: "My freshman year, I had my big brothers, like Garrison [Brooks], Sterling [Manley], [Andrew] Platek, Leaky [Black], even [Armando Bacot] was older than me... and now, it's like they're all gone, and I'm the only one left. It was kind of weird at first, but I definitely enjoyed being the older guy. I may be old, but I'm still young, and having this young group with me made me feel like I was still in college a little bit, rather than feeling left out, so I've enjoyed it."
I feel bad about being able to embed just the UNC videos here, but this is my lingering complaint about Duke's insufficient local media coverage. I renew my suggestion: redirect about $1 million in the annual NIL budget to @jimsumner so that he can show up to these events, record them with an HD camera, and post them to YouTube promptly. (Ask him. Maybe he'd be willing to do it for only $750,000/year.)
NYBri
Member
I’d do it for a couple hundred?Jon Scheyer had a pregame press conference earlier today, and while GoDuke has transcribed some quotes, I've only been able to find the video from Rodd Baxley, within this Fayetteville Observer article. (There are reprints/reposts in the Asheville Citizen-Times and Wilmington Star-News, but it's all from Baxley.)
Maliq Brown injury update: Jon Scheyer provides update on Duke basketball player ahead of UNC game
Duke basketball's Maliq Brown has missed four games with a shoulder injury. Head coach Jon Scheyer provided an update on Thursday afternoon.www.fayobserver.com
Coach Scheyer: "It's been obvious to me, I think Hubert [Davis] and their staff have done a great job of adapting and continuing to evolve as a team. Obviously, they're playing bigger, lineup changes, but they're ultimately playing the same guys. I think the biggest thing that's different is just the confidence level that they're playing with, the aggressiveness, the cohesiveness. They're on the biggest winning streak for the season. They're scoring over 80 points a game. The defensive challenge for us is going to be a big challenge. And then, playing at home, they play a fast pace, and even faster the last couple of weeks. Great respect for them and everything they've done. I really feel they're playing the best basketball that they've been playing all year."
"Maliq [Brown] has been working so hard. Maliq's been telling me for two weeks 'I'm ready', when he hasn't been. But that's his mindset, to be ready. He has not practiced yet. He's going to try today to do some but we're not going to risk anything unless he's completely ready to go. We'll have to see today and tomorrow, if there's a chance, but he literally hasn't practiced one time with us yet."
Meanwhile, Inside Carolina has YouTube videos of head coach Hubert Davis and leading scorer RJ Davis from today.
Coach Davis: "I think there's a number of things that we've improved on... maybe the consistency on both ends, just the consistency of doing the little things on the defensive end, in terms of boxing out, rebounding, trying to defend without fouling, protecting the paint. Offensively, doing a better job taking care of the basketball, getting to the offensive glass, not taking bad shots, getting good shots. I think that's contributed to us scoring really well of late... Doing the things that allow you to be successful, I think we're doing them consistently, well, more."
RJ Davis: "My freshman year, I had my big brothers, like Garrison [Brooks], Sterling [Manley], [Andrew] Platek, Leaky [Black], even [Armando Bacot] was older than me... and now, it's like they're all gone, and I'm the only one left. It was kind of weird at first, but I definitely enjoyed being the older guy. I may be old, but I'm still young, and having this young group with me made me feel like I was still in college a little bit, rather than feeling left out, so I've enjoyed it."
I feel bad about being able to embed just the UNC videos here, but this is my lingering complaint about Duke's insufficient local media coverage. I renew my suggestion: redirect about $1 million in the annual NIL budget to @jimsumner so that he can show up to these events, record them with an HD camera, and post them to YouTube promptly. (Ask him. Maybe he'd be willing to do it for only $750,000/year.)
UrinalCake
Member
"made me feel like I was still in college"
This was definitely my favorite quote from RJ Davis. And to be fair, the fact that he doesn't have to go to class this year isn't any different than the previous four.
This was definitely my favorite quote from RJ Davis. And to be fair, the fact that he doesn't have to go to class this year isn't any different than the previous four.
By Torvik's game score, over the past 5 games UNC has an average game score of 94.4, with an adjusted offensive efficiency of 135.3 (4th nationally in that span) and an adjusted defensive efficiency of 102.9 (110th nationally). Their overall rating over that span is 10th nationally. We are of course #1 in that span, with an adjusted offensive rating of 138.7 (2nd) and a defense of 90.1 (9th). Our average game score over the last 5 games is 99.2.
Now, we obviously should still be favored. But if UNC plays the way it has played the last 2 weeks, the expected spread is probably closer than the metrics based sites would expect. The difference in "Barthag" for the last 5 games is less than 4 percent (0.9930 vs 0.9587), whereas the difference for the season is just over 12% (0.9815 vs 0.8608). If it were based on only the most recent data, I'd guess something like a ~4-5 point spread instead of the 10-11 point spread. Which would be more of a 60/40 rather than an 80/20 type of game.
Now, there's obviously no way to know if the current 5-game stretch for UNC (or for Duke, for that matter, although ours feels a lot safer given that it's basically a 10-game stretch of otherworldly play) is a fluke or the real deal. But if the Heels have indeed found their formula over the last 2 weeks, this could be a very stressful game for Duke. One we still should be favored in, but much closer to a toss-up than it would appear at first glance.
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