MBB: Duke vs. Kentucky (11/12, 9pm ET, ESPN) Pregame and In-Game Thread

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phaedrus said:
I'm curious about their offense. CDu's lineup profile described several starters and rotation players who are fairly limited on offense, and several guys who are excellent shooters but not much else. A team with great shooters and little shot creation or dynamism might be limited against better teams, unless it has an exceptional offensive scheme. But maybe I misinterpreted what I'm reading about their players.
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Of their players, they have only one true playmaker (Kriisa). The rest are largely "system" scorers, though Carr is capable of getting his own shot (either as a postup against smaller 4s or as a stretch 4 against guys who aren't comfortable guarding out there) and Oweh is a James-like player who can power his way to his shots. The rest are largely system players and spot-up shooters.

BUT Pope is an excellent coach and runs an effective system. So if we aren't disciplined defensively, they'll be able to find their shots. Athletically, we have the edge, and it's possible that our length/athleticism/defensive intensity is enough to overwhelm them. But rather than the typical UK team, this team is going to run its offense rather than "rolling the ball out and letting them play." If we lose track of their shooters, they can definitely make us pay.
 
dukebluesincebirth said:
Agree, but as we've seen in previous years, we need to win these big early season matchups against non-con teams. We may get much better throughout the season, but when NCAAT selection time comes around, we'll be left searching for Q1 wins against teams that play in a higher rated conference. We're not sure who's gonna emerge from the ACC this year, but in recent years the league hasn't given us the high quality wins we need to grab the top seeds. I want this team to have a 1 seed in March. I predict UK will have trouble defending us without fouling... so, maybe this comes down to making free throws, especially in the clutch. LETS GO DEVILS!!!
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Absolutely. We have to win our fair share of these non con matchups this year. And I think we will.
 
robed deity said:
Absolutely. We have to win our fair share of these non con matchups this year. And I think we will.
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Yeah, the goal should be 3 of 4 marquee pre-con matchups (tonight; @Arizona; Kansas neutral site; vs Auburn). Do that, and we'll be in great shape. Win 2 of 4, and we'll still be in very good shape. Win 0 or 1 of 4, and we may be fighting an uphill battle for seeding.
 
CDu said:
Yeah, the goal should be 3 of 4 marquee pre-con matchups (tonight; @Arizona; Kansas neutral site; vs Auburn). Do that, and we'll be in great shape. Win 2 of 4, and we'll still be in very good shape. Win 0 or 1 of 4, and we may be fighting an uphill battle for seeding.
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I predict our NCAA seeding will live or die on what the rest of the ACC does in the next three weeks.
 
sagegrouse said:
I predict our NCAA seeding will live or die on what the rest of the ACC does in the next three weeks.
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Only true if we drop a number of ACC games that we have no business dropping. If the rest of the ACC underperforms over the next three weeks, we will have a small margin of error during conference play.
 
CDu said:
Of their players, they have only one true playmaker (Kriisa). The rest are largely "system" scorers, though Carr is capable of getting his own shot (either as a postup against smaller 4s or as a stretch 4 against guys who aren't comfortable guarding out there) and Oweh is a James-like player who can power his way to his shots. The rest are largely system players and spot-up shooters.

BUT Pope is an excellent coach and runs an effective system. So if we aren't disciplined defensively, they'll be able to find their shots. Athletically, we have the edge, and it's possible that our length/athleticism/defensive intensity is enough to overwhelm them. But rather than the typical UK team, this team is going to run its offense rather than "rolling the ball out and letting them play." If we lose track of their shooters, they can definitely make us pay.
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This seems like it may be the key tactical battle. Through two games, we've allowed assists on just 35% of made baskets. It seems we want to use our length and athleticism to force teams to go 1 on 1. Mark Pope's BYU last year was #6 in the country at assist rate.

Historically, Duke has done pretty well against teams that rely on getting assisted baskets- e.g. Michigan State. Often times the teams that give us trouble are those comfortable going ISO or heavy ballscreen usage - e.g. Jim L's better Miami teams; GT last year.
 
Dr. Maturin said:
This seems like it may be the key tactical battle. Through two games, we've allowed assists on just 35% of made baskets. It seems we want to use our length and athleticism to force teams to go 1 on 1. Mark Pope's BYU last year was #6 in the country at assist rate.

Historically, Duke has done pretty well against teams that rely on getting assisted baskets- e.g. Michigan State. Often times the teams that give us trouble are those comfortable going ISO or heavy ballscreen usage - e.g. Jim L's better Miami teams; GT last year.
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We will switch everything on the perimeter to avoid giving open 3s and driving lanes. If we can then minimize the easy buckets from off ball cuts - a key to his system - we should be able to force them into low % iso plays. They haven't been forced yet to play deep into the shot clock against a defense like ours.

On the offensive end, I hope we stayaway from the contested 2s and keep aggressively attacking the paint off the dribble. Our guys are more athletic and have more talent. Turns out Arizona State is not a terrible team after all and we know what we were able to do to that defense.

I'll be a bit of a contrarian and say I'm not convinced this game will be all that close. Duke by 12-15.
 
SkyBrickey said:
I'll be a bit of a contrarian and say I'm not convinced this game will be all that close. Duke by 12-15.
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Oh there is definitely a case for a Duke blowout (even 20+). We have much more top-end talent. Our 4th or 5th best playmaker is better than their 2nd best playmaker. So if we can force them out of their easy sets, it could get ugly. Especially if we're hitting our shots.

But if we don't show discipline defensively and fail to communicate well on the off-ball screens, UK can punish us. Especially if they're making their threes and we aren't.

I do like our chances, for the reasons mentioned (we tend to do well against less athletic, "system" offenses).
 
I'll also be watching to see whether Evans gets some 1H minutes like he did in the previous two games or is Jon locking in on an 8-man rotation.
 
SkyBrickey said:
I'll also be watching to see whether Evans gets some 1H minutes like he did in the previous two games or is Jon locking in on an 8-man rotation.
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I'd love to see him out there, but I have my doubts about playing against a very experienced and old team. Isiah's issues seem to have to do with his strength and I'm thinking he won't fare that well against older teams. I think he just needs to get stronger.
 
Honestly, my guess is that our opponents will be quite content with any perimeter jumpers from our bigs (Flagg included). That feels like our least efficient offensive approach. Especially Brown and Maluach.

Not saying those guys should never take them, but I suspect teams are going to encourage that shot until our bigs give them a good reason not to do so.
 
I’ve been debating all day who to root for in the first game, because rooting for MSU even as an underdog makes me nauseous. After an exhausting day at work, I’ve decided I can safely root for a Kansas blowout so that our game starts on time ;)
 
scottdude8 said:
I’ve been debating all day who to root for in the first game, because rooting for MSU even as an underdog makes me nauseous. After an exhausting day at work, I’ve decided I can safely root for a Kansas blowout so that our game starts on time ;)
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And Kansas will still be number one when we beat them in two weeks.
 
scottdude8 said:
I’ve been debating all day who to root for in the first game, because rooting for MSU even as an underdog makes me nauseous. After an exhausting day at work, I’ve decided I can safely root for a Kansas blowout so that our game starts on time ;)
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These teams are unrootable. They’ve bricked as many dunks as they’ve made, and are both awful at 3 point shooting. I’m not sure what century this style of basketball is from.
 
dlmzzz said:
These teams are unrootable. They’ve bricked as many dunks as they’ve made, and are both awful at 3 point shooting. I’m not sure what century this style of basketball is from.
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They should have no trouble finding a peach basket. I think there's a store nearby on Peachtree.
 
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