Investment Thread

dlmzzz said:
So what has been working for you during this period? For me, the uncertainty has kept me from making any active investment decisions. My few actions during this period have been taking small amounts of money out of the market (someone else described it as reverse dollar cost averaging).
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I literally did nothing but buy the usual big players once they went down 20% (Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Nvidia, Meta, and Apple). All are now up 6-11% since then and I’m up on the year overall because of it so far. I’ll continue to buy the top companies in each sector when they drop.
 
JNort said:
I don’t disagree that they are intertwined. However we have a separate thread specifically for that crossover and it’s the politics forum where the policy part of this is meant to go. This thread was for sharing and helping others with investment decisions. In other words this thread was meant for discussing what things you are interested in buying, selling, holding, shorting, keeping tabs on and general advice. The policies that affect those decisions goes into the politics thread.

This thread currently has nothing to do with investing and is all about economic policy debates at best and at its worst we have several members ignoring even that and using the chance to discuss how much they despise certain politicians (again not that I disagree with them).

These past couple of weeks have been great for investing opportunities yet we haven’t covered it once because it’s bogged down in policy debates. I’m personally up almost 8-10% just based on investment choices in that time frame.
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Hold on - there’s a political thread? Someone point me in that direction.
 
CameronBornAndBred said:
Or the administration realized that taking away our toys is a bad idea.
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Well I could have worded that better.

For American families, this means relatively inexpensive toys could become luxuries. That’s because nearly 80% of all toys sold in the US are manufactured in China, according to the Toy Association, a leading industry group.

“We have no choice but to increase our prices by high double digits,” said Isaac Larian, CEO of California-based MGA Entertainment, which makes Bratz and L.O.L. Surprise! Dolls, among several other toys. “The life of my business, 46 years, is on the line.”
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Wheat/// said:
I’m not sure if I can respond since it seems the mods are tightening the discussion on this topic, so I’ll be careful and brief.
(Although I agree discussing this issue does have an impact on investment decisions, and should be OK, as long as things stay civil)

As I see it, I’s an example of why I’ve been preaching patience. We don’t know the plans, or the adjustments that will be made, until something like this is announced.

I bought the dip last week and was not concerned the tarrifs would be as big of a deal as the people running around like the house was on fire.

Buy when there’s blood in the streets. There was a lot of blood last week.

So far, I’ve been right.
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It signals to every other industry to wait it out and the same will happen. That means the chaos was for not naught accept for chaos’s sake. No new factories, no news jobs, just a guaranteed 10% cost increase. It introduced uncertainty and volatility into the market while destroying credibility and relationships. That’s great for traders but bad for investors. It means buy the dips, sell the jumps and go long nothing. On the bright side:
https://www.tiktok.com/video/7303613543201377567

That TikTok sale (or lack of) is another data point.

Also gas prices in my area are down 30¢ from last Sunday. That’s for the more expensive Summer blend. While it’s good for consumers it’s a leading indicator of demand of oil (and OPEC+ flooding the market). It’s also Spring Break season. It’s been mild to say the least. People aren’t spending.
 
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Kdogg said:
That means the chaos was for not naught accept for chaos’s sake. No new factories, no news jobs, just a guaranteed 10% cost increase. It introduced uncertainty and volatility into the market while destroying credibility.
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Surprise, that’s not how I see it.

You need a little more patience than what, about two weeks?, to see more new jobs and factories coming to the U.S. from this strategy.

There are tangible results happening now. The “chaos” has brought over 75 nations to the negotiating table where our trade representatives are currently in the process of reviewing agreements and working on securing a better trade balance to benefit American companies and workers.

If other countries can’t respect the U.S. after all the security and aid we supply around the world, it’s time we wake them up to reality.
 
Wheat/// said:
Surprise, that’s not how I see it.

You need a little more patience than what, about two weeks?, to see more new jobs and factories coming to the U.S. from this strategy.

There are tangible results happening now. The “chaos” has brought over 75 nations to the negotiating table where our trade representatives are currently in the process of reviewing agreements and working on securing a better trade balance to benefit American companies and workers.

If other countries can’t respect the U.S. after all the security and aid we supply around the world, it’s time we wake them up to reality.
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Yes tangible results. All tariffs on semiconductors paid since April 5 now will also be refunded. Not going to be surprised if all new tariffs are. The External Revenue Service will some be the External Refund Service. Also it seems that farm and hospitality labour will not be getting any workforce reductions. I look forward to the tangible results of going back to textbook econ.
 
Wheat/// said:
The “chaos” has brought over 75 nations to the negotiating table where our trade representatives are currently in the process of reviewing agreements and working on securing a better trade balance to benefit American companies and workers.
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So how do you long-term invest if this is your view? Or are you just sticking with short-term trading until things are sorted? You counsel "patience", but where should your money go in the meantime?
 
Phredd3 said:
So how do you long-term invest if this is your view? Or are you just sticking with short-term trading until things are sorted? You counsel "patience", but where should your money go in the meantime?
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Nothing really changes from my portfolio management, except I try to add money on dips from the current volatility.
I have an annuity managed my by financial advisor that is fairly conservative. Mostly S&P Index funds and blue chip tech companies like Microsoft, Apple, Amazon etc..
I also have 4 Roth IRA’s that I mostly manage for my wife and myself, with advisor input. Two are moderately conservative, gold, silver, S&P index, Coinbase, Strategy etc.. and two are aggressive crypto IRA’s that I hold Bitcoin, Ethereum, Chainlink, Avalanche for the most part, but I do have a few other coins just to speculate on, including a little bit of Trump coin for the heck of it, which some of you guys will be happy to know is deep in the red🙂
I also invest in quality resort real estate, and I’m looking at some buying opportunities now.
And I do self custody some Bitcoin.
 
This is not a tariff policy thread. It’s an investment thread. Please keep on the appropriate side of that (albeit fuzzy) line.

thanks,

-jk
 
Wheat/// said:
The cabinet members involved and the president have negotiated 100’s of billions of dollars in deals and been successful at it in their careers.

I find it highly unlikely they don’t have a plan.

And I certainly trust their real world experience over an academic professor, but maybe that’s just me?
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Let me briefly recap the last week and you point out the plan.

Tariffs announced from 10%-54% (China).
Markets crash.
China hikes their own tariffs
US hikes their tariffs to 145%
China hikes their own tariffs (Tesla stops ships to China) and limited rare earths.
Administration says China can call anytime to make a deal.
China does nothing.
Administration says "We are ready of make a deal."
China does nothing. Bonds crash.
Administration rolls back tariffs on everyone else to 10%
China does nothing.
Administration rolls back tariffs on electronics and semiconductor and refunds anything collect.
China does nothing
Tariffs on electronics in a month.
China does nothing.

It seems only China has a plan.

It's created a fantastic environment for trading. People don't even have to look for individual stocks. Getting in and out of index funds (if you have the time) is looking like a viable option until we get some certainty but that may take months. Last week ended on calm. We will see in a few hours how the futures open.
 
-jk said:
This is not a tariff policy thread. It’s an investment thread. Please keep on the appropriate side of that (albeit fuzzy) line.

thanks,

-jk
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I 100% understand, and I'm not trying to step on toes, but I don't see how you can have an investment thread without having these tariffs under consideration. The market has been an active volcano these past two weeks for one reason only.

Unless you want to name tariffs "a little bird", as in "a little bird told me to buy this morning and sell this afternoon".
 
CameronBornAndBred said:
I 100% understand, and I'm not trying to step on toes, but I don't see how you can have an investment thread without having these tariffs under consideration. The market has been an active volcano these past two weeks for one reason only.

Unless you want to name tariffs "a little bird", as in "a little bird told me to buy this morning and sell this afternoon".
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It's not that hard: discuss tariffs in regards to specific investing thoughts, not in regards to national or global policy.

Want to discuss how tariffs affect Apple or Dell or Home Depot or Target stock prices? How to build out your portfolio? Sure. How they affect China?, not so much.

-jk
 
CameronBornAndBred said:
I 100% understand, and I'm not trying to step on toes, but I don't see how you can have an investment thread without having these tariffs under consideration. The market has been an active volcano these past two weeks for one reason only.

Unless you want to name tariffs "a little bird", as in "a little bird told me to buy this morning and sell this afternoon".
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Blue Horseshoe loves Tariffs
 
I sold about 70% of my equity holdings on February 24. Every single one is still way down as of close on Friday. If you want to look them up they are Meta, Netflix, NVidia, JP Morgan, Apple, Alphabet, Oracle and Disney. It was an aggressive portfolio for a person my age, but a huge winner last year. I have no interest in getting back in anytime soon. Still too much turmoil. I still hold about 25% of most of them. I am totally out of Disney and Oracle. There is more than just tariffs at work which look to be transitory, maybe. Will the Chinese people still buy Apple products? Starbucks coffee? Damage to American brands may be long term. I can be vindictive from time to time. If I am Canadian, European or Chinese I wouldn’t buy anything from American companies unless there was no alternative product available. We still have questions of whether a recession will occur this year. The bond market is still unsettled. Another question is whether anyone in the government, other than the Federal Reserve, has a clue how economics work. Anything else I would type would get me banned, so that’s my investment view.
 
^ I'm very happy to hide in the corner with very few equities. Too old to risk what we have. Traditionally one might assume this Big Dip is a great time to buy, but the outlook is SO completely unsettled I just don't see that as a smart move for someone like me. There are a lot of possible outcomes and many of them are not great for investors.
 
Kdogg said:
Let me briefly recap the last week and you point out the plan.

Tariffs announced from 10%-54% (China).
Markets crash.
China hikes their own tariffs
US hikes their tariffs to 145%
China hikes their own tariffs (Tesla stops ships to China) and limited rare earths.
Administration says China can call anytime to make a deal.
China does nothing.
Administration says "We are ready of make a deal."
China does nothing. Bonds crash.
Administration rolls back tariffs on everyone else to 10%
China does nothing.
Administration rolls back tariffs on electronics and semiconductor and refunds anything collect.
China does nothing
Tariffs on electronics in a month.
China does nothing.

It seems only China has a plan.

It's created a fantastic environment for trading. People don't even have to look for individual stocks. Getting in and out of index funds (if you have the time) is looking like a viable option until we get some certainty but that may take months. Last week ended on calm. We will see in a few hours how the futures open.
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China's plan (which I tend to understand better) appears to be "don't negotiate with terrorists."
 
I've been a long time reader, but don't typically post. I do enjoy discussions on financial markets and investments (As well as Duke basketball). I am a long-term real estate developer/investor. It is impossible to completely separate tariff strategy from investment strategy. There is one thing markets dislike more than bad policy and that is uncertainty and unfortunately that is where we are now. The tariff policy may work with countries where the US has all the power. However, I don't believe that is true with China. Xi plays the long game. He doesn't mind if they have some economic hardship as it can allow him to blame the US and just consolidate power. Also, the amount of treasuries and mortgage backed securities that China holds provides them a lot of power. They can opt to sell or cut back on buying (We saw a glimpse this past week). I expect the current policies will continue to have uncertainty and likely lead to inflation. I think it is much more likely that the market is down 15%+ in the next year than up 15%+.

So, what does that mean for investments? I like assets that have some protection against inflation. Right now, that includes short-term bonds and gold as far as non-equity. Because I like real estate, I do think apartment REITs in the right markets are a good hedge. Right now, with construction costs and interest rates, there is an inadequate production of new apartments. That means there is likely going to be an increase in rents in existing apartments. What is great about apartments as an owner is that leases are only for a year and you can push rents at renewal or turnover.

I don't think these are investments that will have mega-returns, but I think they will outperform.
 
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