Investment Thread

Kdogg said:
Real time nothing. The stuff you provided is missing SEVEN games. That's THREE YEARS off. It's been wrong for as long as Scheyer has been the coach. Again you've proven my point to a tee.
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If you are using a chatbot like ChatGPT directly, then this an important consideration. In that case, you need to ask it what its knowledge cutoff is (the most current data set it has been trained on). It will tell you. For ChatGPT, mine is currently telling me that its knowledge cutoff is June 2024. This date will change over time, as its training gets updated. It’s no different than looking at when an encyclopedia was published to know how current the information in it was. Similarly, if you do a web search, you should look at the date of the article to know how current the information cited is.

I would recommend using AI tools that use RAG capabilities (Retrieval Augmented Generation), that can supplement the information they have been trained on with current web searches to provide answers based on more current data. Perplexity is a common example of that kind of AI tool.
 
“An eye for an eye makes the whole world blind.” Mahatma Gandhi

www.theguardian.com

China raises US tariffs to 125% as Xi invites EU to team up against Trump ‘bullying’

Chinese leader canvasses Spain and other trading partners on how to tackle economic fallout as market turmoil continues
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

The White House is waiting for Xi to call. It doesn’t look like it’s coming. Factory orders for the Halloween and Christmas periods will be need to be made some. As it stands the US has more than doubled the price of everything coming from China. Apple chartered five planes to haul iPhones and Macs before they hit. It doubt it stands.
 
Yeah I try not to use AI much for “research”. I’ve tried using it in my own line of work and it’s wrong at about the same amount as the time it’s correct soooo very unreliable.

I’ll use it for silly things sometimes but more often I’ll use it to help find a real source.
 
Kdogg said:
“An eye for an eye makes the whole world blind.” Mahatma Gandhi

www.theguardian.com

China raises US tariffs to 125% as Xi invites EU to team up against Trump ‘bullying’

Chinese leader canvasses Spain and other trading partners on how to tackle economic fallout as market turmoil continues
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

The White House is waiting for Xi to call. It doesn’t look like it’s coming. Factory orders for the Halloween and Christmas periods will be need to be made some. As it stands the US has more than doubled the price of everything coming from China. Apple chartered five planes to haul iPhones and Macs before they hit. It doubt it stands.
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Of course Chinese companies have been diversifying for years, with manufacturing bases distributed across every continent. I have two Chinese clients that also have manufacturing facilities in Thailand, Scotland, Germany, Korea, and Spain, as well as the US which will help them minimize the pain of tariffs and keep the money flowing to their Chinese owners.
 
CameronBlue said:
Of course Chinese companies have been diversifying for years, with manufacturing bases distributed across every continent. I have two Chinese clients that also have manufacturing facilities in Thailand, Scotland, Germany, Korea, and Spain, as well as the US which will help them minimize the pain of tariffs and keep the money flowing to their Chinese owners.
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true but the lion's share is in China and it's going to be very difficult to deal with. Very.
 
There's lots to unpack in this article, so I'm not quoting any of it. Also, while it mentions Trump, it also mentions Obama, who had the same goal of getting Apple to move manufacturing to the US. The reality of why it wouldn't happen then is the same reality as it won't happen today, nor tomorrow.

It's a very interesting and eye opening read, going past not just the factory employees but also up to the engineers.

 
I pulled the trigger today on purchasing a MacBook Air as my retirement laptop, spurred by price and availability concerns. I wonder how many others are making similar decisions? Maybe there will be a bit of temporary juice to consumer spending.
 
CameronBornAndBred said:
There's lots to unpack in this article, so I'm not quoting any of it. Also, while it mentions Trump, it also mentions Obama, who had the same goal of getting Apple to move manufacturing to the US. The reality of why it wouldn't happen then is the same reality as it won't happen today, nor tomorrow.

It's a very interesting and eye opening read, going past not just the factory employees but also up to the engineers.

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Apple is sitting on somewhere between 50-70 Billion in cash.

I have a hard time feeling sorry for that company’s situation.

Drop the price and spend the money to build in America. You’ll still have billions in cash left over.
 
-jk said:
Y'all missed the post I made last week where google ai reported Duke won the NCAA championship in all of '63, '64, '67, '78, '86, '88, '89, and '90 - before K won the first one in '91. :ROFLMAO: AI for the win!

-jk
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I consider that a contextually relevant response that is highly adapted to my individual interests.

😂

Now, if they'd throw '94, '99, and a few others in there, that would be awfully nice.
 
Wheat/// said:
Apple is sitting on somewhere between 50-70 Billion in cash.

I have a hard time feeling sorry for that company’s situation.

Drop the price and spend the money to build in America. You’ll still have billions in cash left over.
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No, they wouldn't. Apparently you missed this part of the article:

"Wedbush’s Dan Ives ... estimated that Apple would need to spend $30 billion over three years to move 10% of its supply chain to the U.S."

So, let's be generous and say Apple could scale and spend another $30BB to move a total of 20% of their supply chain to America in the same three-year period. At that point, their war chest is gone. Meanwhile, Apple still would suffer 100% of tariff impacts for three years. Once they spent $60BB, they would still suffer tariffs on 80% of their inputs.

On top of spending their entire war chest to move one-fifth of their supply chain to the US, on top of their unit costs skyrocketing, on top of enduring the impacts of the tariffs that force them move their manufacturing, you want them to drop their prices as well.

Not only does the math not come anywhere close to working, what you're demanding isn't rational behavior for any company, no matter their financial situation.
 
jafarr1 said:
No, they wouldn't. Apparently you missed this part of the article:

"Wedbush’s Dan Ives ... estimated that Apple would need to spend $30 billion over three years to move 10% of its supply chain to the U.S."

So, let's be generous and say Apple could scale and spend another $30BB to move a total of 20% of their supply chain to America in the same three-year period. At that point, their war chest is gone. Meanwhile, Apple still would suffer 100% of tariff impacts for three years. Once they spent $60BB, they would still suffer tariffs on 80% of their inputs.

On top of spending their entire war chest to move one-fifth of their supply chain to the US, on top of their unit costs skyrocketing, on top of enduring the impacts of the tariffs that force them move their manufacturing, you want them to drop their prices as well.

Not only does the math not come anywhere close to working, what you're demanding isn't rational behavior for any company, no matter their financial situation.
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Takeaway: these tariffs are really quite the gift to Samsung.
 
Apple wouldn't even know where to begin in terms of establishing iPhone manufacturing and assembly in the U.S. They'd need to find an astronomical number of low wage workers who are at least skilled enough to do the job. Agree with Ymo, Samsung can just keep doing what it's doing...though they make a ton of phones in Vietnam which has a large tariff pending itself...
 
Wheat/// said:
Apple is sitting on somewhere between 50-70 Billion in cash.

I have a hard time feeling sorry for that company’s situation.

Drop the price and spend the money to build in America. You’ll still have billions in cash left over.
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No hi-rise worker dorms please.
 
CameronBlue said:
No hi-rise worker dorms please.
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The article pointed out the insanity of the steps that Foxconn, Apple's lead supplier, has had to take to keep their workforce alive.

Additionally, Foxconn over the years has come under scrutiny for worker conditions many times, including in 2011 when the company installed nets around some of its buildings after a rash of worker suicides.
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jafarr1 said:
No, they wouldn't. Apparently you missed this part of the article:

"Wedbush’s Dan Ives ... estimated that Apple would need to spend $30 billion over three years to move 10% of its supply chain to the U.S."

So, let's be generous and say Apple could scale and spend another $30BB to move a total of 20% of their supply chain to America in the same three-year period. At that point, their war chest is gone. Meanwhile, Apple still would suffer 100% of tariff impacts for three years. Once they spent $60BB, they would still suffer tariffs on 80% of their inputs.

On top of spending their entire war chest to move one-fifth of their supply chain to the US, on top of their unit costs skyrocketing, on top of enduring the impacts of the tariffs that force them move their manufacturing, you want them to drop their prices as well.

Not only does the math not come anywhere close to working, what you're demanding isn't rational behavior for any company, no matter their financial situation.
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Great post. Politics does a wonderful job of distilling incredibly complex situations and decisions to dumb sound bites and unrealistic expectations.
 
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