Frosh Draft Status - Okafor, Winslow, Jones Gone

Rich

Rich

Member
I am absolutely beside myself after hearing numerous pundits say that they believe that Jah's draft status dropped due to his performance in the championship game. They talk about his poor defense on Kaminsky, especially on the perimeter, lack of rebounds, lack of finishing some chippies, and poor free throw shooting (he was 0 for 1). I've also heard one mention the play where Kaminsky stripped Jah in the paint when he was making a post move as an example of him not being strong with the ball. Are you kidding me?

Clearly this was not Jah's best game, but have these talking heads seen him play at all this season? Certainly he has defensive and free throw shooting liabilities, but that's not news. How can his performance in this one game negate his dominant performances all season? Look, he's going to be top 3, I get that. But to say that someone like Karl Anthony Towns has jumped Jah solely because of his performance in the championship game is frustrating and completely absurd, IMHO.
 
Rich said:
I am absolutely beside myself after hearing numerous pundits say that they believe that Jah's draft status dropped due to his performance in the championship game. They talk about his poor defense on Kaminsky, especially on the perimeter, lack of rebounds, lack of finishing some chippies, and poor free throw shooting (he was 0 for 1). I've also heard one mention the play where Kaminsky stripped Jah in the paint when he was making a post move as an example of him not being strong with the ball. Are you kidding me?

Clearly this was not Jah's best game, but have these talking heads seen him play at all this season? Certainly he has defensive and free throw shooting liabilities, but that's not news. How can his performance in this one game negate his dominant performances all season? Look, he's going to be top 3, I get that. But to say that someone like Karl Anthony Towns has jumped Jah solely because of his performance in the championship game is frustrating and completely absurd, IMHO.
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People have been saying for a few weeks now that Jah might drop a bit. There are a lot out there that think that Towns is more well-rounded. I even heard after Houston that Justise should go number 1 overall. I think that Jah's relative bad game in the Championship just added fuel to the fire.

Maybe Jahlil, Justise and Tyus all decide to stay to improve their status (a guy can dream, can't he).
 
I think he needs to come back, for one more season, to work on those shortcomings.🙏
 
Agreed. It would be silly to judge Jahlil in this one game against his worst possible matchup at the college level. Shaq would've had trouble against Kaminsky, too.
 
I love how opinions on such things are affected by one game. Hell, I saw news stories yesterday about how wonderful it is that Grayson has announced he's coming back. My first thought when I saw those was "well, duh".
This game will be nothing more than a joyful memory and afterthought for people making the actual choices. They will have reams of reports from scouts, trainers, and coaches, all who have put these players through the paces in person. Regardless of where Jah goes in the draft, he won't be in that spot because Kaminsky stripped the ball from him.
 
I'm as big a Jahlil fan as anyone, but it's not his birthright to be the number one pick. The NBA places less emphasis on post-up skills than it once did, and Jahlil's got some work to show that he can defend in space. The championship game didn't help on that last point. I think he'll be an excellent NBA player, but could Towns or Justise end up better... it's possible.
 
Troublemaker said:
Agreed. It would be silly to judge Jahlil in this one game against his worst possible matchup at the college level. Shaq would've had trouble against Kaminsky, too.
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But you also have to keep in mind that there are way better players than Frank Kaminsky at the next level that Jah will be expected to defend. Players that come to mind are DeMarcus Cousins, Al Jefferson, both Gasols, Al Horford, and Brook Lopez. These guys are all quicker, more athletic, and more skilled than Kaminsky, and would absolutely eat Jah alive if he plays the way he did on Monday. Jah's defense is absolutely a work in progress, and I don't think it's much of a debate that Karl Towns performed better in the NCAA tournament than Jah. Jah's offensive potential is unrivaled by any big man in the past decade with the exception of Anthony Davis, but I'm with most people who consider Towns to have an overall higher ceiling. As far as the draft is concerned, they are the same level to me. Jah is superior offensively, while Towns is the much better defender. Towns will almost certainly improve offensively, and once Jah gets into peak physical shape, he will be a much better defender. But just in terms of being a run and jump athlete, I think Towns is a more prototypical NBA style player who is more versatile on both ends. However, dominant low post big men like Jah only come along once every 10 or so years. Whoever picks 2nd will have the easiest choice in the entire draft.
 
kAzE said:
But you also have to keep in mind that there are way better players than Frank Kaminsky at the next level that Jah will be expected to defend. Players that come to mind are DeMarcus Cousins, Al Jefferson, both Gasols, Al Horford, and Brook Lopez. These guys are all quicker, more athletic, and more skilled than Kaminsky, and would absolutely eat Jah alive if he plays the way he did on Monday. Jah's defense is absolutely a work in progress, and I don't think it's much of a debate that Karl Towns performed better in the NCAA tournament than Jah. Jah's offensive potential is unrivaled by any big man in the past decade with the exception of Anthony Davis, but I'm with most people who consider Towns to have an overall higher ceiling. As far as the draft is concerned, they are the same level to me. Jah is superior offensively, while Towns is the much better defender. Towns will almost certainly improve offensively, and once Jah gets into peak physical shape, he will be a much better defender. But just in terms of being a run and jump athlete, I think Towns is a more prototypical NBA style player who is more versatile on both ends. However, dominant low post big men like Jah only come along once every 10 or so years. Whoever picks 2nd will have the easiest choice in the entire draft.
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I agree whole-heartedly. ONE MORE YEAR!!!
 
Things I think Okafor can/needs to improve upon at next level include his lower body strength and fitness. He tended to play "high" a lot, rather than getting deep in his stance (on both ends of the floor). This robs him of some lateral quickness and explosiveness. I think he has just been so much bigger and better than his opponents that he hasn't needed to work as much. Well, that will change for him next year.

But honestly, even those concerns are not going to be enough for him to fall below #2 or at worst 3. And he may still go #1.
 
It wasn't the game against Wisconsin. It was the combination of the games against Wisconsin, Gonzaga, and Utah, and it's only maybe going to drop him to #2.
 
Rich said:
But to say that someone like Karl Anthony Towns has jumped Jah solely because of his performance in the championship game is frustrating and completely absurd, IMHO.
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Especially when Kaminsky went for 20 and 11 against Towns, too.
 
Wander said:
It wasn't the game against Wisconsin. It was the combination of the games against Wisconsin, Gonzaga, and Utah, and it's only maybe going to drop him to #2.
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Right. It's not like we're talking about a drop out of the top-5 or anything. He's absolutely going top-3, almost certainly top-2, and probably still #1. And it is not a one-game sample. As Wander notes, Okafor didn't have a big game in either game against Wisconsin, he didn't have a big game against Gonzaga, and he didn't have a big game against Utah. In games against teams with NBA-caliber centers, Okafor didn't shine. That's not an indictment of him as a player, just raises a bit of a question about his sure-fire #1 pick status.
 
kAzE said:
But you also have to keep in mind that there are way better players than Frank Kaminsky at the next level that Jah will be expected to defend. Players that come to mind are DeMarcus Cousins, Al Jefferson, both Gasols, Al Horford, and Brook Lopez. These guys are all quicker, more athletic, and more skilled than Kaminsky, and would absolutely eat Jah alive if he plays the way he did on Monday. Jah's defense is absolutely a work in progress, and I don't think it's much of a debate that Karl Towns performed better in the NCAA tournament than Jah. Jah's offensive potential is unrivaled by any big man in the past decade with the exception of Anthony Davis, but I'm with most people who consider Towns to have an overall higher ceiling. As far as the draft is concerned, they are the same level to me. Jah is superior offensively, while Towns is the much better defender. Towns will almost certainly improve offensively, and once Jah gets into peak physical shape, he will be a much better defender. But just in terms of being a run and jump athlete, I think Towns is a more prototypical NBA style player who is more versatile on both ends. However, dominant low post big men like Jah only come along once every 10 or so years. Whoever picks 2nd will have the easiest choice in the entire draft.
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Kaminsky is actually even a worse matchup than all of the guys you mentioned, imo. This isn't to say that Jahlil doesn't have to improve defensively and athletically (by improving his body), but, essentially, all those NBA players you listed would be working against Jahlil 18-ft and in. Yes, his rookie year, they'll probably be able to work him good. But NBA franchises will live with that because Jahlil's gonna be able to work some of them on offense 18-ft and in as well. And eventually, as he improves defensively and body-wise year after year, he's going to win all those matchups because he'll hurt them 18-ft and in better than they can hurt him 18-ft and in. He'll eventually score 2s better than those guys can score 2s against him, in other words.

Kaminsky is a completely different animal as a stretch 5 (and I assume stretch 4 in the NBA). It was terrifying every time Kaminsky got the ball because it looked like (1) he could pop a three at any time and Jah wouldn't be able to challenge, (2) he could drive Jah all day and draw fouls and complete 3-pt plays, or (3) Duke would have to over-help when Kaminsky drives and he could kick out for open threes. On an "expected points given up" basis, Kaminsky was a worse matchup than any 2-pt based post player.

All that said, I agree completely with you that Towns is a better fit for where the NBA is these days and where it's continuing to evolve. It's better to have the combination of excellent rim protection and rim-running (for pick-and-rolls) than back-to-basket skills. I would take Towns #1 as well. Just saying that Kaminsky really is an awful, awful matchup for him.
 
nmduke2001 said:
People have been saying for a few weeks now that Jah might drop a bit. There are a lot out there that think that Towns is more well-rounded. I even heard after Houston that Justise should go number 1 overall. I think that Jah's relative bad game in the Championship just added fuel to the fire.

Maybe Jahlil, Justise and Tyus all decide to stay to improve their status (a guy can dream, can't he).
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That'd be really cool if they all stayed and Tyus improved his draft status so much that he is the #1 pick in the 2016 NBA draft over Jah and Justise/Justice/Justuce.:rolleyes:;)
 
Kedsy said:
Especially when Kaminsky went for 20 and 11 against Towns, too.
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I think the bigger argument made there was that Towns still got his (16 and 9 on 7-11 FG shooting) whereas Okafor didn't (10 points and 3 rebounds on 5-9 shooting).

I don't know that either is being drafted based on defense, but I think the point of those second-guessing Okafor as a clear-cut #1 are pointing to his tendency to not put up big numbers when facing NBA-quality/size big men (in addition to the clear limitations defensively). Even likely backups like Karnowski.

Specifically with respect to Towns vs Okafor, the tradeoffs are this:

Okafor:
- more polished post game
- bigger body
- plays less athletic (not below the rim, but not really above the rim)

Towns:
- more athletic
- better defender/shotblocker
- pretty good, though limited in variety, post-game
- much better shooter

Towns is almost certainly going to stay more athletic/quicker than Okafor. So the question is can Okafor's offensive skills remain superior enough to Towns' skills to offset the difference in athleticism?

Some GMs will like Okafor, some (who may be swayed by his more "meh" showings against bigger teams) may be more inclined to take Towns.
 
Troublemaker said:
Kaminsky is actually even a worse matchup than all of the guys you mentioned, imo. This isn't to say that Jahlil doesn't have to improve defensively and athletically (by improving his body), but, essentially, all those NBA players you listed would be working against Jahlil 18-ft and in. Yes, his rookie year, they'll probably be able to work him good. But NBA franchises will live with that because Jahlil's gonna be able to work some of them on offense 18-ft and in as well. And eventually, as he improves defensively and body-wise year after year, he's going to win all those matchups because he'll hurt them 18-ft and in better than they can hurt him 18-ft and in. He'll eventually score 2s better than those guys can score 2s against him, in other words.

Kaminsky is a completely different animal as a stretch 5 (and I assume stretch 4 in the NBA). It was terrifying every time Kaminsky got the ball because it looked like (1) he could pop a three at any time and Jah wouldn't be able to challenge, (2) he could drive Jah all day and draw fouls and complete 3-pt plays, or (3) Duke would have to over-help when Kaminsky drives and he could kick out for open threes. On an "expected points given up" basis, Kaminsky was a worse matchup than any 2-pt based post player.

All that said, I agree completely with you that Towns is a better fit for where the NBA is these days and where it's continuing to evolve. It's better to have the combination of excellent rim protection and rim-running (for pick-and-rolls) than back-to-basket skills. I would take Towns #1 as well. Just saying that Kaminsky really is an awful, awful matchup for him.
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Totally agree with this post, there is all kinds of loose talk out there. And I think that some pundits and even pro scouts are under-rating Kaminsky as well. They both have significant strengths in their own realms.

Okafor has better post skills and moves than many NBA post players have after years of experience. Some teams still value such skills very highly. Where he is drafted will partially depend on the bouncing balls...
 
I know this is about oak.but just for the sake of it .did Kaminskys stock drop because of amiles wonderful job guarding him? I mean there are quicker and stronger guys in the nba.I believe that they will go as they would have before the tournament. My only question is do we lose two or three Early.
 
CDu said:
Some GMs will like Okafor, some (who may be swayed by his more "meh" showings against bigger teams) may be more inclined to take Towns.
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True, but some thoughts in this thread IMO are over-analyzing the situation. Imaging players in the NBA that can score on Okafor or worrying that Kaminsky was able to drive and pick up a few fouls will mean very little come draft time. I keep going back to how teams had to account for Okafor at all times. Game plans were devised mainly around what you were going to do with Okafor. He dominated a lot of games and bent the opposing D every time he touched the ball. He then got banged up against UNC and seemed maybe a step slow after that. But I'll make the not-so-bold prediction that he'll still go #1. And if someone picks Towns #1 over Okafor, I'll then predict that that will be seen later as unbelievably foolish. Not sure about the kid playing in China -- haven't seen him yet. I keep hearing he's the next D. Rose; hopefully for him, the healthy version. (Sorry CDu)
 
I felt like two of the 4 fouls called against Okafor were bogus. I wonder how he would have played with only two fouls. Okafor held himself just fine against very talented post players. Kamisnky is not really just a post player so it was not really a good matchup for him. Most centers in NBA would have the same issue. Kaminsky reminds me of Nowitzky.
 
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