FB: Duke 26, Northwestern 20 (2OT)

Dr. Maturin said:
For all the "we didn't deserve it" talk, Duke actually outgained NU 4.9 yards per play to 3.9. If you outgain a team by a full yard per play, you ought to win most of the time. In some sense, it was the mistakes that prevented Duke from winning a little more easily. If not for the fumbled punt, dropped passes, and 3 dropped INTs, perhaps Duke wins in regulation.

Of course, a caveat to the above was that Duke didn't really move the ball consistently until the 4th quarter. 170 of our 342 yards came on our last four possessions. Overall, Duke ran 30 times and passed 40. On those last 4 possessions, it was 17 passes and 6 runs (one of those being a sack). It certainly seems like a passing heavier approach is in order.
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To put a bow on this point, SP+ gave Duke a 72% post game win expectancy (basically, if the teams accumulated the stats they did over the course of the game, you would expect Duke to win 72% of the time). You can look Duke's performance in a couple of different ways. The optimist would say that despite looking inept in several phases of the game, we outplayed a B1G team on the road. Clean up special teams, give the offense some time to work the kinks out, and we'll see what we have.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1832746082268332228
 
budwom said:
I suspect Nina will get them back on the schedule at some point. At this point we have room for them on most years in the future except for 2026.
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We don't need a power opponent until 2031. I'm in favor of the 1 FCS/2 FBS small/1 non-playoff FBS or ND. Yes, you can end up in Troy, AL instead of Chicago or Nashville for the weekend, but it improves your TV value most of the year and makes you more attractive to bowls. (8-4 Duke sound a lot better than 6-6 Duke, and most P5 schools just load up with home wins this time of year.) If Duke really gets to the point that games with SEC powers, OSU, USC, etc. make sense, you can always buy out the smaller schools or move them around like Duke has done with Tulane or MTSU.
 
duke2x said:
We don't need a power opponent until 2031. I'm in favor of the 1 FCS/2 FBS small/1 non-playoff FBS or ND. Yes, you can end up in Troy, AL instead of Chicago or Nashville for the weekend, but it improves your TV value most of the year and makes you more attractive to bowls. (8-4 Duke sound a lot better than 6-6 Duke, and most P5 schools just load up with home wins this time of year.) If Duke really gets to the point that games with SEC powers, OSU, USC, etc. make sense, you can always buy out the smaller schools or move them around like Duke has done with Tulane or MTSU.
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I don't mind that approach either, but NU is just about always a winnable game for us, and right now (AFAIK) our only non conference team on the schedule in 2027 is ND, so scheduling Northwestern wouldn't be crazy...as long as we get to six wins (I get your point) I'm fine...
 
Dr. Maturin said:
To put a bow on this point, SP+ gave Duke a 72% post game win expectancy (basically, if the teams accumulated the stats they did over the course of the game, you would expect Duke to win 72% of the time). You can look Duke's performance in a couple of different ways. The optimist would say that despite looking inept in several phases of the game, we outplayed a B1G team on the road. Clean up special teams, give the offense some time to work the kinks out, and we'll see what we have.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1832746082268332228
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This is interesting but I don't understand exactly what it is measuring.
 
Bluedog said:
(is it always only a single end of the field for all possession in all OTs?!?! I thought they switched...).
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The winner of the coin toss gets to pick whether to play defense first (desirable) or pick the end of the stadium. So the coin flip loser picks the end.
In the 2nd OT, the choice changes to the other team.

Teams always want to play defense first. Then the choice of end is usually determined by crowd noise at big stadiums if one end is different than the other in that respect. This is why you usually see them switch ends. In this case, the end choice was probably dictated by field goal kicking and both teams chose the end that favored that.
 
So, as I connect the dots, let me get this straight: That bat "flying" around our seats, and that Random [cough, cough] Rabbit just happening to hop onto the field, at a critical moment, these two disparate events, were just matters of chance? The probability that this particular "bat" and this particular "rabbit" would appear on the very fields that Duke football is playing -- in two totally different States at two totally different times! -- is so low as to beggar belief [in randomness]. We need to get to the heart of this Bat Rabbit conspiracy right now! I wonder what Critter will appear in our next game.
 
hustleplays said:
So, as I connect the dots, let me get this straight: That bat "flying" around our seats, and that Random [cough, cough] Rabbit just happening to hop onto the field, at a critical moment, these two disparate events, were just matters of chance? The probability that this particular "bat" and this particular "rabbit" would appear on the very fields that Duke football is playing -- in two totally different States at two totally different times! -- is so low as to beggar belief [in randomness]. We need to get to the heart of this Bat Rabbit conspiracy right now! I wonder what Critter will appear in our next game.
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I feel like the Universe is trying to tell us something but is just learning to speak English…

“Bat…” no
“Rabbit..” no
“Brad Pitt!”
 
Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 said:
This is interesting but I don't understand exactly what it is measuring.
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It is measuring the probability Team A will win given Team A and Team B’s stats. For example team A with 500 yards total offense and no turnovers will beat a team B with 300 yards and 2 turnovers the vast majority of the time. (The exact % can be oredicted by computers.) So if team B somehow wins they have bucked the odds. Some would say got lucky. So these post-game win probabilities allow you to look at a win and see if it was “deserved” based on the stats or if it is likely mostly a lucky outcome.
 
Skydog said:
It is measuring the probability Team A will win given Team A and Team B’s stats. For example team A with 500 yards total offense and no turnovers will beat a team B with 300 yards and 2 turnovers the vast majority of the time. (The exact % can be oredicted by computers.) So if team B somehow wins they have bucked the odds. Some would say got lucky. So these post-game win probabilities allow you to look at a win and see if it was “deserved” based on the stats or if it is likely mostly a lucky outcome.
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Okay, I think I got it now. So if NIU and Notre Dame were simply teams A and B, and they posted the stats that they actually did in their matchup, NIU wins just under half of the time. Right?
 
DoubleBlue said:
Early in the 3rd Quarter, with Duke trailing 10-7, Henry Belin IV subbed for Murphy for four plays... three QB runs and one completed pass, total 19 yards. Murphy came back in to complete the drive and the rest of the game. At the time I was relieved to see some variety from the Duke offense and in fact Duke converted a field goal on that drive to tie the game at 10.

I did not pick up any comments from the announcers about why Belin was inserted for those plays. I noted a distinct increase in the energy level of Duke's offense for those 4 plays. Murphy obviously runs only as a last resort when flushed out of the pocket. That near fumble on the last drive in regulation has me convinced that Murphy should not be running the ball at all.
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Here's the answer to the QB question from Jim Sumner (free article today):

Except (expect) to see more of Henry Belin IV as a change-of-pace option at quarterback.

“We feel like Henry provides a really dynamic element to our offense,” Diaz said. “You always see how people want to defend you when a quarterback like Henry comes in and can utilize his legs.”

“Henry can run, he’s got game experience,” Brewer adds. “We’ve been working on a package with him probably since the end of fall camp. In the Northwestern game, we felt like we needed to present something different to them.”

But don’t expect a move away from Maalik Murphy.

“It doesn’t have to be,” Brewer said of his offense needing a running quarterback. “It’s not a must kind of thing.”
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At his Monday press conference the NU coach announced that they are benching their starting QB after the Duke game.
 
chrishoke said:
At his Monday press conference the NU coach announced that they are benching their starting QB after the Duke game.
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That seems very harsh to me after two games. The game was played in pretty bad conditions, and his speed scared the heck out of me all game! I guess the coach can't bench himself for an absolute terrible play call on 3rd down in OT.
 
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