Duke vs. Auburn (Wed 12/4, 9:15pm ET, ESPN) Pregame and In-Game Thread

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UT Dukie said:
Alas I am fairly certain, without looking at the data because I'm lazy, that there isn't typically a lot of "regression to the mean" either. More specifically, there are teams who stay "lucky" or "unlucky" all year long. Kenpom's luck is perhaps best viewed as capturing what metrics cannot. As such, it may be a very useful hedge when selecting tournament winners, etc. An hypothesis begging to be tested with the right weighting of metrics and luck factored in. Pardon the musings.

As for how to measure "coaching," I do believe the DBR method of loudest opinion seems most prudent!
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Bart Torvik agrees that some part of "luck" is just what metrics don't capture, in some cases, but he certainly doesn't go as far as you: https://adamcwisports.blogspot.com/search/label/FUN

I'm avoiding the word "luck" here for a reason. If I call it luck, that implies that the T-Rank is a rather absolute reflection of a team's quality, and that any deviation from T-Rank's expected winning percentage is simply random variance, or luck.​
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Undoubtedly, that is a big part of the story. But it's probably not the whole story.​

If you were right, then W/L record would be more predictive than it is.
 
Billy Dat said:
So far this season, when we have high profile match-ups, there is a clear emergence of a Big 3, in terms of minutes:


PlayerMPG OverallMPG vs UK/KU/AZ
Coop3136
Kon3136
Rese2935

With Auburn's depth, I wonder if this trend will continue tonight?
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Auburn's rotation only goes one guy deeper than us (nine versus eight), and our ninth guy (i.e., the first guy out of the rotation) has played about twice as much as their tenth guy, so if Evans plays, we're even closer by that measure. Their #3-7 are a bit more even with each other in minutes than ours, so I guess that counts as additional depth. Still, I doubt depth will be the story of the game.
 
"Luck" basically states the variance between a team's efficiency metrics and their current W/L record. In other words, how the win counts deviate from what would be expected for a team's given efficiency metrics. So, if you lose five times by 1 point and blow everybody else out by 20+, Kenpom would say that team has horrible "luck." Is is "luck" or a team doesn't know how to win in crunch time? Who knows. Maybe both.
 
My one request for our coaches tonight is that they have the team ready to play from the opening tip. No 13-point early hole like what we dug against Kansas.

We need to be prepared to punch back against their physicality. Maybe this means starting Sion and Maliq - maybe it doesn't.
 
AZLA said:
I frankly don’t expect Duke beating Auburn. I’ll be more than pleasantly surprised if they do. Can they? Of course. Auburn is tough, older, and Bruce can get them to go full berserk mode. Brevity makes some good points about Auburn’s vulnerability inside. Overall, Auburn is scary because they like to full on brawl on airplanes at high altitude. There’s a level of crazy there. I hope Duke matches their crazy with, “you think you crazy, I show you crazy!” I expect Kon, Tyrese and Caleb to get their outside shot going — at least I hope — to free up the bigs. I enjoyed seeing Auburn play and getting beat of course by Duke in Maui a few years back and hope we can do the same. I still feel they (Auburn after Duke failed to make the Final Four) deserved the championship which was poached by the officiating. Still had Duke not experienced the same level of sketch against Mich State — they would have dominated the FF.
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All you guys who expect Duke to lose tonight should sign up for a sportsbook and get your bets down. Because not only will they let you bet on Auburn, they will also give you 3.5 points gratis. Free money, right?
 
SkyBrickey said:
My one request for our coaches tonight is that they have the team ready to play from the opening tip. No 13-point early hole like what we dug against Kansas.

We need to be prepared to punch back against their physicality. Maybe this means starting Sion and Maliq - maybe it doesn't.
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If there are set plays that are ready for us to use on offense, now is the time to bring them out. This game means a lot.
 
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Let's Go Duke!

-jk
 
Agree. Auburn making some tough 3s.

Duke has no flow or rhythm offensively. Need to fix that quickly or this will get ugly.
 
We cannot keep spotting teams of this caliber 10+ point leads right from the jump and expect to win. Maybe we can fight back and make it competitive, but now that is a huge amount of energy and execution just to get back to square one.
 
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