Duke vs. Auburn (Wed 12/4, 9:15pm ET, ESPN) Pregame and In-Game Thread

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I still think that the ACC-SEC Challenge was created last year for the sole purpose of forcing Duke to play on the road at Arkansas. But now it's an annual thing, and the #11 Blue Devils finally get a home game. Their opponent? The 4th-ranked Auburn Tigers, newly crowned Maui Invitational champions after beating #5 Iowa State, #12 UNC, and Memphis in three consecutive days. They also beat current #6 Houston earlier in the season on a neutral court in Houston, so you can say that Duke in Cameron is their first true road game, but come on.

In this regular season, Duke is 2-0 against teams that start with the letter A (Army, Arizona), but 0-2 against teams that start with the letter K (Kentucky, Kansas). There are reports that Tigers head coach Bruce Pearl is trying to change the name of the school to Kauburn before Wednesday's game.

Auburn, like both Arizona and Kansas before them, has a full week to prepare to play Duke. The Devils had 6 days for Arizona and 4 days for Kansas. (For the record, Kentucky had no such benefit, getting 3 days versus Duke's 4.)

The game takes place Wednesday night at 9:15pm ET on ESPN (streaming link, listen, live stats). I would not expect a prompt tip-off; it's the second game of an evening doubleheader, and Alabama-UNC is scheduled to start just two hours earlier, at 7:15pm ET.

More to come in a game preview. Until then, discuss Auburn-Duke here.
 
Bumping up this Auburn pregame thread because it was about to fall off page 1 of the main forum. It's my fault for starting it so early in the first place; I really misread the room on this one. Apparently DBR cares more about the scoreboard in Cameron than the next men's basketball opponent in Cameron.

I'm not about empty content, so here's a bit about the incident that took place on November 8, when Auburn's team plane was en route to Houston to play Kelvin Sampson and the Cougars, but instead had to make an emergency return. AL.com reported that a pair of reserves, freshman guard Jahki Howard and senior forward Ja'Heim Hudson, got into some kind of altercation while on board. (When the team later flew back out for the Houston game, those two players did not make the trip.)

VASAviation has the audio recording between the pilots and air traffic control, if you wish to listen to it, but NBC 13 Birmingham summed it up in their news report:


A few days later, The Field of 68 hosts Jeff Goodman and Robbie Hummel talked to Tigers head coach Bruce Pearl about it:


Jeff Goodman: "There was some audio that came out afterwards, with a pilot talking about blood, ripped clothing, a fight -- so what DID happen on the first flight to Houston?"

Bruce Pearl: "I'm limited in what I want to say, it was an unfortunate situation, but we are dealing with it head on, and it's sort of an ongoing process, so I think that's the best way I could approach it."

Jeff Goodman: "If I gave you multiple choice and said: horseplay, shenanigans, a donnybrook, or a full-fledged brawl, you can't pick one of those four, A, B, C, or D?"

Bruce Pearl: "Well, no, in order to be in compliance with my leadership... but listen, we're going to handle it the right way, and in spite of the very rough start to our trip, we played a basketball game in November that felt like it was March, and so we had a great game at Houston, a great atmosphere..."

Hmm, despite the video's title, Coach Pearl doesn't really explain the plane incident, so I guess this IS empty content.

Based on box scores, I can tell you that Howard and Hudson did not play in the games against Kent State (November 13) or North Alabama (November 18), but each played a few minutes in the Maui Invitational last week. (It's a long flight to the 50th state, but I've been assured that the loudest thing on board was Coach Pearl's Hawaiian shirt.)
 
brevity said:
Bumping up this Auburn pregame thread because it was about to fall off page 1 of the main forum. It's my fault for starting it so early in the first place; I really misread the room on this one. Apparently DBR cares more about the scoreboard in Cameron than the next men's basketball opponent in Cameron.

I'm not about empty content, so here's a bit about the incident that took place on November 8, when Auburn's team plane was en route to Houston to play Kelvin Sampson and the Cougars, but instead had to make an emergency return. AL.com reported that a pair of reserves, freshman guard Jahki Howard and senior forward Ja'Heim Hudson, got into some kind of altercation while on board. (When the team later flew back out for the Houston game, those two players did not make the trip.)

VASAviation has the audio recording between the pilots and air traffic control, if you wish to listen to it, but NBC 13 Birmingham summed it up in their news report:


A few days later, The Field of 68 hosts Jeff Goodman and Robbie Hummel talked to Tigers head coach Bruce Pearl about it:


Jeff Goodman: "There was some audio that came out afterwards, with a pilot talking about blood, ripped clothing, a fight -- so what DID happen on the first flight to Houston?"

Bruce Pearl: "I'm limited in what I want to say, it was an unfortunate situation, but we are dealing with it head on, and it's sort of an ongoing process, so I think that's the best way I could approach it."

Jeff Goodman: "If I gave you multiple choice and said: horseplay, shenanigans, a donnybrook, or a full-fledged brawl, you can't pick one of those four, A, B, C, or D?"

Bruce Pearl: "Well, no, in order to be in compliance with my leadership... but listen, we're going to handle it the right way, and in spite of the very rough start to our trip, we played a basketball game in November that felt like it was March, and so we had a great game at Houston, a great atmosphere..."

Hmm, despite the video's title, Coach Pearl doesn't really explain the plane incident, so I guess this IS empty content.

Based on box scores, I can tell you that Howard and Hudson did not play in the games against Kent State (November 13) or North Alabama (November 18), but each played a few minutes in the Maui Invitational last week. (It's a long flight to the 50th state, but I've been assured that the loudest thing on board was Coach Pearl's Hawaiian shirt.)
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Re-posting your “empty content.” Agree about the scoreboard. Goes double for the Isaiah Evans minutes thread.
 
But...but...but...what if coaches choose to take other jobs?!?! I am looking for continued growth and maturity. The Duke which showed up against Kansas would have beaten Kentucky. I love the trajectory thus far. Things I would like to see in this game:
1. Kon have a great shooting night vs a top tier opponent. I thought he was absolutely fantastic against Kansas, just couldn't make a 3. I would love to see him have a 5-7 night from 3 PLUS have a great floor game.
2. See Flagg continue to exert his physical will against power 5 opponents. I love the motor and the fact he does a little bit of everything. Want to see him continue with his growth.
3. I want to see Proctor/Foster have a great shooting night from 3.
4. See if Evams gets some early burn and can hit a couple of shots. If he can give 8-10 minutes and score 6-10 points he becomes a legitimate weapon and that augers well for the future and even more opportunities for him.
5. See Maluach have 3 or 4 blocks
6. Watch Brown. I just enjoy seeing him out there. He feels so much like David McClure from a defensive ability standpoint to me. Damn I love defense, even though I couldn't stay in front of a chair.
7. See Sion get to the rim and exert his physical will.
8. Win.
 
ClemmonsDevil said:
But...but...but...what if coaches choose to take other jobs?!?! I am looking for continued growth and maturity. The Duke which showed up against Kansas would have beaten Kentucky. I love the trajectory thus far. Things I would like to see in this game:
1. Kon have a great shooting night vs a top tier opponent. I thought he was absolutely fantastic against Kansas, just couldn't make a 3. I would love to see him have a 5-7 night from 3 PLUS have a great floor game.
2. See Flagg continue to exert his physical will against power 5 opponents. I love the motor and the fact he does a little bit of everything. Want to see him continue with his growth.
3. I want to see Proctor/Foster have a great shooting night from 3.
4. See if Evams gets some early burn and can hit a couple of shots. If he can give 8-10 minutes and score 6-10 points he becomes a legitimate weapon and that augers well for the future and even more opportunities for him.
5. See Maluach have 3 or 4 blocks
6. Watch Brown. I just enjoy seeing him out there. He feels so much like David McClure from a defensive ability standpoint to me. Damn I love defense, even though I couldn't stay in front of a chair.
7. See Sion get to the rim and exert his physical will.
8. Win.
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Like all of these.

#7 apparently was something Scheyer spoke to Sion about at the end of the Seattle game. Scheyer took Sion out late in the game and spoke to him for about a minute. In his postgame presser, Scheyer was asked about the conversation and he said that although he didn't have a physique like Sion's, he was talking about Sion not settling for jumpers and instead using his strength to get to the rim.
 
brevity said:
I still think that the ACC-SEC Challenge was created last year for the sole purpose of forcing Duke to play on the road at Arkansas. But now it's an annual thing, and the #11 Blue Devils finally get a home game. Their opponent? The 4th-ranked Auburn Tigers, newly crowned Maui Invitational champions after beating #5 Iowa State, #12 UNC, and Memphis in three consecutive days. They also beat current #6 Houston earlier in the season on a neutral court in Houston, so you can say that Duke in Cameron is their first true road game, but come on.

In this regular season, Duke is 2-0 against teams that start with the letter A (Army, Arizona), but 0-2 against teams that start with the letter K (Kentucky, Kansas). There are reports that Tigers head coach Bruce Pearl is trying to change the name of the school to Kauburn before Wednesday's game.

Auburn, like both Arizona and Kansas before them, has a full week to prepare to play Duke. The Devils had 6 days for Arizona and 4 days for Kansas. (For the record, Kentucky had no such benefit, getting 3 days versus Duke's 4.)

The game takes place Wednesday night at 9:15pm ET on ESPN (streaming link, listen, live stats). I would not expect a prompt tip-off; it's the second game of an evening doubleheader, and Alabama-UNC is scheduled to start just two hours earlier, at 7:15pm ET.

More to come in a game preview. Until then, discuss Auburn-Duke here.
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Two rotation questions for me.

Will Jon start Caleb or Sion? I expected him to start Sion against Seattle. Since he didn't, I'll bet he sticks with Caleb as the starter but with Sion getting just as many minutes off the bench.

Gillis or Evans? I think it's still Gillis. He's very comfortable playing in these big games. He brings more to the team in defense and rebounding. And you've got to bet he'll revert to his 40% career 3 point % at some point. Also, Evans was only 2-7 from 3 vs Seattle.
 
I don't think Scheyer will start James. I think having James come in as a scoring 6th man is something that is the goal actually. Scheyer played that role wonderfully his freshman year and I think Duke sees value in having him come in as scoring punch off the bench.
 
ClemmonsDevil said:
I don't think Scheyer will start James. I think having James come in as a scoring 6th man is something that is the goal actually. Scheyer played that role wonderfully his freshman year and I think Duke sees value in having him come in as scoring punch off the bench.
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I agree with your point, but want to note that was Scheyer's sophomore year. In addition to the value of having James come off the bench, I'm guessing that Scheyer is also concerned that not starting Foster could hurt Foster's confidence.
 
MChambers said:
I agree with your point, but want to note that was Scheyer's sophomore year. In addition to the value of having James come off the bench, I'm guessing that Scheyer is also concerned that not starting Foster could hurt Foster's confidence.
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And conversely, it definitely won't hurt Sion's confidence, since he's a senior and explicitly knew he wasn't being brought in to start games. Personally, I agree with Kara's take on this, which boils down to (paraphrasing): "Most people give way too much weight to who starts. It's about who contributes." Sion has shown himself to be a significant contributor. It doesn't matter if he starts.
 
My dad had a kid who begged him not to start him. He said starting the game made him too nervous and he liked to see what was going on for a couple of minutes before going into the game. Kid averaged 30 points a game coming off the bench and was conference player of the year. It ain't who starts, it's who contributes and who finishes.
 
SkyBrickey said:
Two rotation questions for me.

Will Jon start Caleb or Sion? I expected him to start Sion against Seattle. Since he didn't, I'll bet he sticks with Caleb as the starter but with Sion getting just as many minutes off the bench.

Gillis or Evans? I think it's still Gillis. He's very comfortable playing in these big games. He brings more to the team in defense and rebounding. And you've got to bet he'll revert to his 40% career 3 point % at some point. Also, Evans was only 2-7 from 3 vs Seattle.
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Let's hope it's not in one of the over the sea leagues. As for Evans he's a scorer and should get better with more minutes. Kon shot poorly against Kentucky and Kansas, but we know he can shoot. Kon's, Caleb's and Evans defense don't look too much different to me. It's the offense that's not carrying their load right now.

GoDuke!
 
hallcity said:
When was the last time Duke had a bigger non-conference home game? I can't say but I think it's been quite a few years.

The team needs the students, big time.
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Maybe vs. MSU Kyrie's year? Just might be one of my favorites :)
 
We had the talent to be In both KY and KS games until the end, despite no lights-out shooting. Duke just needs to finds its closer. At the time of picking up Sion James, I thought now there’s a guy who should be able to get to the rim. I think we should build a couple of plays for that.
 
This week's AP Poll is out. Auburn is now #2, while Duke is #9.

Back in October, Auburn was picked to finish 2nd in the SEC preseason poll, behind their hated in-state rival Alabama, while the Tigers' Johni Broome was expected to watch the Tide's Mark Sears run away with the conference's Player of the Year award. Since then, both Auburn and Broome have emerged from the shadows to become league and national favorites. (Stop me if this sounds familiar, because it's like an SEC version of Duke and UNC.)

Head coach Bruce Pearl is in his 11th season at Auburn, and his War Eagle teams have made 5 of the last 6 NCAA Tournaments, peaking with a 2019 Final Four run that included upset wins over UNC and Kentucky. You remember...

auburnunc2019.jpg

They are 7-0 so far this season, with impressive wins over four opponents who are currently ranked: #17 Houston (74-69: recap, box score, highlights, full replay), #6 Iowa State (83-81: recap, box score, highlights, full replay), #20 UNC (85-72: recap, box score, highlights, full replay), and #16 Memphis (90-76: recap, box score, highlights, full replay).

I'm getting Last Ride vibes from Coach Pearl's roster. Nine players in his 11-man rotation -- all five starters and four of the reserves -- complete their eligibility in the spring. There's a tenth senior who has yet to play this season, plus two freshmen, RSCI #28 Tahaad Pettiford and #61 Jahki Howard. There are no sophomores or juniors on this team who were recruited scholarship athletes.

PROBABLE STARTERS

6-10 senior post Johni Broome (20.7 pts, 12.9 reb, 3.3 ast, 3.1 blk)
6-7 senior wing Chad Baker-Mazara (12.6 pts, 3.1 Reb, 1.9 Ast, 1.0 stl)
6-4 senior guard Denver Jones (11.1 pts, 1.9 reb, 3.3 ast, 1.0 stl)
6-6 senior guard Miles Kelly (10.0 pts, 2.1 reb, 0.9 ast)
6-11 grad center Dylan Cardwell (5.6 pts, 3.4 reb, 2.4 ast, 1.0 stl)

TOP RESERVES

6-7 senior forward Chaney Johnson (10.6 pts, 6.0 reb, 1.7 ast, 1.1 blk)
6-1 freshman guard Tahaad Pettiford (9.6 pts, 1.3 reb, 2.7 ast, 1.0 stl)
6-6 freshman forward Jahki Howard (5.5 pts, 2.0 reb, 0.0 ast)
6-2 senior guard JP Pegues (2.6 pts, 1.6 reb, 1.0 ast)
6-6 fifth-year forward Chris Moore (0.9 pts, 1.4 reb, 0.6 ast)
6-7 senior forward Ja'Heim Hudson (0.7 pts, 1.0 reb, 1.0 ast)

BENCH PLAYERS

5-11 junior guard Presley Patterson (1.7 pts, 0.0 reb, 0.0 ast)
6-2 junior guard CJ Williams (1.0 pts, 0.0 reb, 0.0 ast)
6-3 sophomore guard Blake Muschalek (0.7 pts, 0.0 reb, 0.7 ast)
6-5 redshirt freshman guard Drake Cardwell
6-9 senior forward Addarin Scott
5-6 freshman guard Joah Shay
6-6 junior guard Reed Trapp

Johni Broome leads the nation in rebounds and is 4th in blocked shots. Before the season started, a few staffers of the student paper The Auburn Plainsman offered their predictions for the team -- win-loss record, top newcomer, and so on. This is what they said for top defensive player:

Grace Heim, Assistant Sports Editor: Johni Broome

“Broome is the clear pick here as he was named to the 2024 SEC All-Defensive team and was a key contributor last season for the Tigers on defense.”
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Logan Fowler, Sports Reporter: Johni Broome

"Give me Broome in this category as well. He was named to the 2024 SEC All-Defensive team and ranks sixth all-time in career blocked shots with 156. Broome was second in the SEC in blocks per game last season with 2.2, and I would expect him to replicate that production again this season."
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Patrick Bingham, Sports Editor: Chad Baker-Mazara

"It'll probably be Broome. I just wanted to be different."
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Broome is also very good on offense: he's 2nd in the SEC in scoring, keeps opponents honest with his outside game (9-for-26, or 34.6 percent), and averages over 3 assists. He's not alone in the post; center Dylan Cardwell, who started only three times in his previous 4 years at Auburn, has started every game this season.

Returners Chad Baker-Mazara and Denver Jones headline the perimeter, and they're joined by freshman standout Pettiford and a pair of familiar transfers: Miles Kelly and JP Pegues. You may recall Kelly, who was Georgia Tech's leading scorer as a sophomore and junior. He scored 16 points in each of the Yellow Jackets' games against Duke last season. Pegues played for Furman, and hit the winning shot in the 2023 NCAA Tournament to upset Virginia.

Auburn can go small, replacing Cardwell with Pettiford, and have five players on the court who each shoot a fair amount of threes, and range from a 34 to 45 percent success rate. Opponents should resist fouling Jones (26-of-28 from the line) and Baker-Mazara (21-of-24). Pettiford is only 9-of-9.

Nerd fight! Auburn is KenPom #1, while Duke is T-Rank #1. Ken Pomeroy and Bart Torvik agree, however, that Auburn is #1 in adjusted offensive efficiency, while Duke is #1 in adjusted defensive efficiency. (Irresistible force, meet immovable object.)

Let's do a tale of the tape, now with NET rankings included. Stats are from Basketball Reference unless otherwise indicated.

TABLE 1

Category Auburn (7-0)Duke (5-2)
Points Scored86.7 (21st nationally)80.7 (92nd)
Points Allowed66.6 (83rd)58.6 (10th)
Scoring Margin (NCAA.com)20.1 (26th)22.1 (17th)
Total Rebounds37.3 (159th)41.3 (36th)
--- Offensive Rebounds10.0 (237th)11.9 (137th)
--- Defensive Rebounds27.3 (96th)29.4 (22nd)
Assists18.4 (19th)17.4 (36th)
Steals6.4 (252nd)9.4 (39th)
Blocks6.0 (8th)4.1 (89th)
Turnovers9.6 (24th fewest)11.6 (135th fewest)
Personal Fouls17.4 (187th fewest)17.0 (157th fewest)
Field Goal Percentage52.5% (5th)46.3% (124th)
2-Point FG Percentage65.7% (1st)56.4% (80th)
3-Point FG Percentage36.3% (86th)36.1% (91st)
Free Throw Percentage75.2% (75th)73.3% (121st)

TABLE 2

CategoryAuburnDuke
NET Ranking (NCAA.com)#2#4
--- Quad 14-01-2
--- Quad 20-00-0
--- Quad 31-02-0
--- Quad 42-02-0
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy)#1#4
--- Offensive Efficiency#1#23
--- Defensive Efficiency#7#1
--- Tempo#165#225
T-Rank (Bart Torvik)#4 (T-Page)#1 (T-Page)
--- Experience2.647 (12th)1.031 (358th)
--- Talent30.592 (101st)81.907 (3rd)
Assist/Turnover Ratio (NCAA.com)1.93 (9th)1.51 (61st)
Bench Points (NCAA.com)29.0 (66th)22.0 (204th)
Fastbreak Points (NCAA.com)10.9 (168th)12.7 (101st)

Ken Pomeroy defines efficiency as an extrapolated measure of points scored (offensive) or allowed (defensive) per 100 possessions against an average opponent. The more points you score and the fewer points you allow, the better. Tempo refers to the number of possessions per 40 minutes against an average tempo: the higher the rank, the faster the tempo. Faster isn't necessarily better; Houston is among the 20 slowest teams, and is KenPom #5.

Bart Torvik offers some clarification on Experience and Talent in the comments here. Experience "is based on class year (3 for senior, 0 for freshman) with caveat that it actually counts how many years a guy has played 10 games in, so if a guy is listed as a soph even though he's played two full years already, he'll count as a junior." Talent "is based on composite recruiting ranks weighted for minutes played."

dukelion said:
Torvik has us as a solid 5pt favorite......will be interesting to see how much that diverges from Vegas.
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Bart Torvik projects a 75-70 Duke win. Auburn is a 1-point statistical underdog in their road games against Alabama and Kentucky, but is favored in the rest of its schedule.
 
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