KenPom on "luck":
"Luck" in the metrics world is simply how much better their record is than it "should" be given their metrics rating relative to their opponents. Auburn had two games that were effectively toss-ups (Houston, Iowa State), and they won both. Duke conversely had two games that were effectively toss-ups, and they lost both. That's what leads to the two different ends of the spectrum.
This was our approach with Kansas and Dickinson, I believe. I contend that it was working until he got ejected (and that actually may have worked against us).
I agree that Sion should start. I’m also good with Maliq starting if ManMan doesn’t (playing them both means having at least two “non-shooters” on the floor, which could clog up our offense if those two aren’t very, very effective at setting screens and being lob threats, and I don’t think Maliq is a lob threat).
Very good points. And I’ll have to admit until I read this I assumed the game was at a neutral site because of the size and following of both programs and it being early in the season. The home court and the Crazies change everything. “Coin flip” is app. I hope the Crazies along with the team bring their A game. Kon will shoot much better at home. Might have to place a bet! Go Duke!
Depends which sport. I think in football defense wins. Until they changed the rules to favor offense
Meeeeee! Famously. Or infamously.
LOL, I know, many people LIKE Jay as a broadcaster and analyst; I don't doubt he has a substantial reservoir of knowledge about college basketball but I find him (at least somewhat) insufferable; I get the impression that he is one of those people who has to try to prove that he is smarter and more knowledgeable than everyone else and his stories about his lack of basketball skills seem like the epitome of false modesty run amok.
Yeah. Look, there are people here who are anti-Bilas because they think he goes out of his way to appear unbiased when he talks about Duke. That bit is not all that interesting to me.
after muting Jay for the past decade or so, I listened to him for one game this year and found, to my delight, he wasn't punctuating every sentence with "that's a foul!"
Totally agree here, DT. I don't actually mind that he SEEMS to root against Duke at times. I'm sure he feels some pressure to appear to be unbiased, with his broadcasting peers and ESPN viewers. And I agree he IS better when not doing in-game analysis - the talk he gave pre-season to the Duke team was outstanding, IMO.
Interesting, but I don't see how Auburn's roster affects how many minutes are in a regulation game of basketball.
Assuming Auburn tries to wear us down, I wonder if Jon will try and find more rest for Coop/Kon/Proctor?
There is a non-zero probability that one or more of those 3 guys plays more than 40 minutes tonight.
Alas I am fairly certain, without looking at the data because I'm lazy, that there isn't typically a lot of "regression to the mean" either. More specifically, there are teams who stay "lucky" or "unlucky" all year long. Kenpom's luck is perhaps best viewed as capturing what metrics cannot. As such, it may be a very useful hedge when selecting tournament winners, etc. An hypothesis begging to be tested with the right weighting of metrics and luck factored in. Pardon the musings.