Conference Realignment

[sagegrouse]

I do wonder how Duke fares. The football TV revenues aren’t so great but the basketball revenues are off the charts. How much will basketball count?

25% -- much lower than football, but tournament revenue is another pot of money, whose distribution took effect this year. SMU, for example, got a payoff from the CFP, even though the Ponies are not getting any share of regular TV receipts for 6 (?) years.

 

[pamtelp]

Delays the inevitable until 2030. I imagine this isn't good for Duke, but it's probably not horrible. It will require Duke to contemplate changing its scheduling strategy. They are now economically incentivized to play better non-conference teams to draw eyeballs (like the article mentions, Georgia Tech had the best rating last year in part because of their Georgia game). You have to balance that with a desire to win. Going to be interesting to see where that shakes out.

 

[ecs15]

Probably not good to have another hit to revenue with the House case coming up.

 

[dudog84]

I still feel pretty uncomfortable with various tiers of payouts within conference membership. I understand why it's happening, but it seems like more striation of power and less parity.

I don't like the 5-year rolling average. In today's world, nobody cares (if they can remember) what you did 5 years ago. That must have been an FSU requirement.

 

[DukieTiger]

Delays the inevitable until 2030. I imagine this isn't good for Duke, but it's probably not horrible. It will require Duke to contemplate changing its scheduling strategy. They are now economically incentivized to play better non-conference teams to draw eyeballs (like the article mentions, Georgia Tech had the best rating last year in part because of their Georgia game). You have to balance that with a desire to win. Going to be interesting to see where that shakes out.

Problem is that the other conferences are increasingly disincentivized from scheduling marquee OOC games against the ACC.

 

[duke2x]

I don't like the 5-year rolling average. In today's world, nobody cares (if they can remember) what you did 5 years ago. That must have been an FSU requirement.

FSU only has 1-2 good years in that average right now. No amount of money is going to compensate for the players they recruit that they aren't in the SEC and never will be. They aren't capable of understanding that.

 

[TheDevilMadeMeDoIt]

Problem is that the other conferences are increasingly disincentivized from scheduling marquee OOC games against the ACC.

Very good point. Maybe the Big 12 and ACC should try to schedule some interesting games. Both are in the same position of being left behind by the two super conferences.

 

[AGDukesky]

It's a formula, and I don't suppose doing math is one if his hobbies.

doing math or doing meth?

 

[dudog84]

Problem is that the other conferences are increasingly disincentivized from scheduling marquee OOC games against the ACC.

That might actually work to our advantage. Duke is a brand name, and despite our recent football success those big schools still don't respect us and would want a game. I think we'll have our pick of B1G/SEC suitors. Duke-Michigan, anyone?

 

[ThirdDevil]

FSU only has 1-2 good years in that average right now. No amount of money is going to compensate for the players they recruit that they aren't in the SEC and never will be. They aren't capable of understanding that.

FSU has only 1-2 years of good *football* but they have five years of good *ratings* due to their success in the 90s. Success on the field doesn’t matter to ESPN, so it doesn’t matter to the ACC.

 

[ecs15]

Viewership isn't completely correlated with on-field success. One of the hardest pills to swallow.

 

[Nugget]

I think the changes to the revenue distribution allocations within the conference are not of material importance.

The bigger deal is it sure looks like the ACC is agreeing to drastically reduce the impediments to leaving the league after 2030 (by enabling teams to buy out of the grant of rights earlier/cheaper than they could now), ensuring that is what will happen if the SEC/BIG decide they want to take on any of UNC, Clemson, FSU, and/or Virginia (or, less likely, Duke, Ga. Tech, Miami or NC St.) at that time:

"... the total cost to exit the league after the 2029-30 season is expected to drop below $100 million, sources said. The current language would require any school exiting before June 2036 to pay three times the annual distribution -- a figure that would be about $120 million -- plus control of that team's media rights through the conclusion of the grant of rights. This was seen as a critical piece to the settlement, allowing flexibility for ACC schools amid a shifting college football landscape, particularly beyond the 2030 season, when TV deals for the Big Ten (2029-30), Big 12 (2030) and the next iteration of the College Football Playoff (2031) come up for renewal -- a figure Florida State's attorneys valued at more than $500 million over 10 years. Sources told ESPN that there'd just be one number to exit the league, not the combination estimated by FSU of a traditional exit fee and the loss of media from the grant of rights."

 

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Viewership isn't completely correlated with on-field success. One of the hardest pills to swallow.

"Thank goodness!"

-UNC Football and Basketball, probably

 

[Phredd3]

Delays the inevitable until 2030.

Does it, though? The way I read the various articles, it seems to significantly lower the exit cost. F$U was worried about a half-billion-dollar possible fee, but will $120M even phase them? I thought I remembered them buying out a coach for that. To me, this seems to make the league less stable, not more, although I've just seen news articles and haven't read the proposed agreement.

 

[duke2x]

This was seen as a critical piece to the settlement, allowing flexibility for ACC schools amid a shifting college football landscape, particularly beyond the 2030 season, when TV deals for the Big Ten (2029-30), Big 12 (2030) and the next iteration of the College Football Playoff (2031) come up for renewal -- a figure Florida State's attorneys valued at more than $500 million over 10 years.

When that happens, this SEC/Big 10 envy probably ends as all of these conferences end for football. I can't see the current structure existing past 2030 with the highlighted statement true.

 

[ecs15]

"Thank goodness!"

-UNC Football and Basketball, probably

yes, there is a reason the article mentions they are likely to benefit from this new plan

 

[crote]

Viewership isn't completely correlated with on-field success. One of the hardest pills to swallow.

The sweet spot would be scheduling a game against a bad team with a big fanbase. Not a lot of those outside of FSU. Maybe Duke can get a game with the Cowboys?

 

[JasonEvans]

The sweet spot would be scheduling a game against a bad team with a big fanbase. Not a lot of those outside of FSU. Maybe Duke can get a game with the Cowboys?

 

[arnie]

Does it, though? The way I read the various articles, it seems to significantly lower the exit cost. F$U was worried about a half-billion-dollar possible fee, but will $120M even phase them? I thought I remembered them buying out a coach for that. To me, this seems to make the league less stable, not more, although I've just seen news articles and haven't read the proposed agreement.

I guess FSU could use the the $380 million $$ they save to buy into the SEC. Otherwise they exit with no where to enter.

 

[wilko]

Seems like a bad move by the conference UNLESS there are other unspoken/unnamed options on the table, now that the court dismissals are seemingly imminent.

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