Conference Realignment

Conference realignment is fascinating feels like the weight teetering above Duke’s head. But the biggest near-term issue is the House settlement. Talked to someone in the athletic department this weekend and it left me feeling concerned for the future of our sports programs (except likely basketball).

But the more pressing issue is the implementation of the House settlement. Lots of moving parts and the chance it gets help up in appeals, but if implemented it lays the groundwork for some very challenging times ahead for Duke athletics.

Nina has been signaling upcoming challenges for the Olympic sports and the House settlement would be the match that starts that fire.

As you all know, would have two big elements.

First, given our revenues, Duke can (and will) provide a revenue share of $20.5m. This would replace the NIL collectives. This is significant more than our current NIL investments. This will force Duke to reallocate resources and cut expenses in other programs. Olympics sports (and large teams like lacrosse) will have to find financial support from friends of the programs at a level well beyond what they receive from those people today.

Second, scholarship limits will be removed. Just as the rev share is kicked in, there will be demand from programs to offer more scholarships. Even if the rev share didn’t happen this would be tough. Given the cost of Duke tuition and board, we will have to focus our resources because we won’t be able to compete. Basketball and football will be fine because they will get all the resources. It is very likely we won’t be able to increase the number of scholarships we offer in other sports. This will definitely impact our competitiveness.

We can say that we have plenty of money, but I can assure you that is not how the administration sees it. Tough times are coming and they will directing their finite resources towards the revenue sports. Especially if rev distribution of ACC schools changes dragging down our revenues.

Simply put, the House settlement, and our response to it, will definitely impact our teams ina big way. Fingers crossed it doesn’t happen. There is some optimism it might not, but the trends are clear. Now I understand why Nina is so worried and vocal about the impending demise of college Olympic sports.
The third change is that the NCAA set binding roster limits for each sport. Mostly, there will be fewer athletes and less expense and lower need for scholarships.
 
It is incorrect to say that NIL collectives will be replaced by the rev share. NIL, NIL collectives, etc. will continue to exist IN ADDITION to the new House revenue sharing.
That was my understanding too. Isn't it also true that the $20.5M is a rev share cap? Now it may be that all P4 schools choose to share that, but I don't think it's a requirement for D1 schools.
 
Wasn't in JM Keynes who said in the long run we're all dead? I don't think the current college sports landscape is sustainable and major changes are needed. That may necessitate more realignment. Maybe even the Brian Kelly plan (4 16-team, regional super leagues). Who knows?
Agree (current state, never mind trend lines that are even worse=not sustainable). And disagree (4x16 will not be the answer. History may not save Wake and Baylor, eg, but it will save more than 64.)
 
Let me help you all clear some stuff up.

Regarding the rev share, each of the major conferences have already said they will require their member schools to pay it at its max (over $20 mil). Those monies will come out of athletic department budgets. If you want to stay in the conference, you need to find that money. For some schools with challenging budgets, they may have to turn to donors to help make ends meet.

Regarding NIL collectives, they will still be a "thing" and they will play a role in supplementing the rev share. Top basketball and football rosters are now going to be in the $30+ mil kind of range (combined). This is why you have been seeing and will continue to see NIL records broken left and right over the next six months.
 
$60M divided by 15 teams is $4M per program. It's not nothing, but that's what, an 8-10% bump in TV revenue?
Yeah, but my understanding is that much of that $60 mil is going into the pot that will be unequally divided as a "performance bonus" among ACC teams. So, top TV/marketing schools like Clemson, FSU, Miami, Duke, UNC could get a big percentage of that $60 mil while the Wake, BC, Pitt crowd get very little of it.
 
Dan Shulman grew up in baseball and broadcasts college basketball and (I looked at Wikipedia) eons ago did some hockey and a tiny bit of (Canadian) college football broadcasting. He has no idea if Belichick and Kerlina football are going to drag u*NC into the B1G. Neither does Bilas.
The College GameDay crew was discussing this during GameDay, not Bilas and Shulman. But they don't know anything either.
 
I don't really understand the logic here. Let's say boosters are currently giving $10M per year to the Duke collectives. Is Nina assuming that $10M will dry up overnight vs some or all of it being redirected from the collectives back to Duke Athletics?

Also, while I get that the new revenue sharing model will put more pressure on non-revenue sports, I still don't buy that Duke will be forced to axe any non-rev sports. It just sounds to me like Nina is using tough words to convince alums to support their favorite non-rev sport. Not faulting her - it's what she should be doing to keep the money flowing.

But Duke Men's Swimming existed long before the huge football TV contracts...
You might be right, but .... https://sports.yahoo.com/creating-h...-roster-limits-come-into-focus-234825869.html
 
I recommend the ACC following Coach K’s advice and merging with the Big East. I also recommend not committing to pay $20M to athletes.
if your goal is to kill non revenue sports, then merging with the Big East is the ticket. TV football money pays for just about everything, and the Big East doesn't have any. I think you would be hard pressed to find anyone in the athletic dept. who thinks that's a realistic idea.
 
if your goal is to kill non revenue sports, then merging with the Big East is the ticket. TV football money pays for just about everything, and the Big East doesn't have any. I think you would be hard pressed to find anyone in the athletic dept. who thinks that's a realistic idea.
Plus, refusing to pay the $20 mil to athletes (who absolutely deserve significant payment as compensation for the money they bring into the universities) will ensure Duke is non-competitive in the money-making sports of basketball and football which will further kill the non-revenue sports. If you want Duke to drop down to DIII, this is the formula!
 
Regarding the rev share, each of the major conferences have already said they will require their member schools to pay it at its max (over $20 mil). Those monies will come out of athletic department budgets.
It's this bit that's important. The $20.5 million isn't new money. It's existing money that athletic departments are currently actively using, mostly to subsidize non-revenue sports. Now, suddenly, all that money is being earmarked for athlete salaries, instead. So all that funding for non-revenue sports is pretty much just going away, and non-revenue sports will primarily have to be funded by other means, if at all.

It also means that individual donors will be able to make specific non-revenue sports sudden major powerhouses by throwing money at them, if that's their particular area of interest. I suspect we will see a major contraction in non-revenue sports conferences, and a significant concentration of power among those that remain.

And that's all assuming that the IRS is perfectly happy continuing to grant non-profit status to institutions that run pro sports leagues. Expanding on that thought may stray into the political arena, so I will refrain.
 
Plus, refusing to pay the $20 mil to athletes (who absolutely deserve significant payment as compensation for the money they bring into the universities) will ensure Duke is non-competitive in the money-making sports of basketball and football which will further kill the non-revenue sports. If you want Duke to drop down to DIII, this is the formula!
the plus side is I'd get to see Duke play Middlebury in a lot of sports every year.
 
if your goal is to kill non revenue sports, then merging with the Big East is the ticket. TV football money pays for just about everything, and the Big East doesn't have any. I think you would be hard pressed to find anyone in the athletic dept. who thinks that's a realistic idea.
Or would volunteer for the big salary cuts.
 
It's this bit that's important. The $20.5 million isn't new money. It's existing money that athletic departments are currently actively using, mostly to subsidize non-revenue sports. Now, suddenly, all that money is being earmarked for athlete salaries, instead. So all that funding for non-revenue sports is pretty much just going away, and non-revenue sports will primarily have to be funded by other means, if at all.

It also means that individual donors will be able to make specific non-revenue sports sudden major powerhouses by throwing money at them, if that's their particular area of interest. I suspect we will see a major contraction in non-revenue sports conferences, and a significant concentration of power among those that remain.

And that's all assuming that the IRS is perfectly happy continuing to grant non-profit status to institutions that run pro sports leagues. Expanding on that thought may stray into the political arena, so I will refrain.
I have no idea whether this is going to be legal, but can it be too long before we see the Duke Jimmy John's Men's Soccer Team, underwritten by, well, pretty obvious?
 
Remember, the Big 12's contract comes due in only a few years, well inside the ACC's soon-to-be-extended 2036 expiration date. By shoring up the league at least for the medium term, the ACC has a chance to watch the next card flip over from the B12.

There is a chance the ACC can plunder a couple key programs in the B12, causing significant instability in that conference to the point of degrading their next negotiation, and shifting TV contract dollars from a ~50/50 B12/ACC split to something more favorable to a stronger, clear third conference, ACC.

A chance.

- Chillin
Good point. For example, I think it makes a lot of sense for the Atlantic Coast Conference to add some traditional Big 12 powers like Central Florida, Cincinnati, or West Virginia. :rolleyes:
 
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It's this bit that's important. The $20.5 million isn't new money. It's existing money that athletic departments are currently actively using, mostly to subsidize non-revenue sports. Now, suddenly, all that money is being earmarked for athlete salaries, instead. So all that funding for non-revenue sports is pretty much just going away, and non-revenue sports will primarily have to be funded by other means, if at all.

It also means that individual donors will be able to make specific non-revenue sports sudden major powerhouses by throwing money at them, if that's their particular area of interest. I suspect we will see a major contraction in non-revenue sports conferences, and a significant concentration of power among those that remain.

And that's all assuming that the IRS is perfectly happy continuing to grant non-profit status to institutions that run pro sports leagues. Expanding on that thought may stray into the political arena, so I will refrain.
Either that, or "NIL" money now goes through the university rather than directly from the collectives.
Probably some of both. Booster money is split...with X going to NIL and Y going to the school, with X+Y=T. If the school can pay 20 million, Y will go up, and X will go down (just like Y went down and X went up when NIL became legal). Will the delta be 20 million? probably not. but also there are people that donate for specific sports.

So we'll see...but there will be a lot of pain for a lot of schools regardless.
 
if your goal is to kill non revenue sports, then merging with the Big East is the ticket. TV football money pays for just about everything, and the Big East doesn't have any. I think you would be hard pressed to find anyone in the athletic dept. who thinks that's a realistic idea.
The argument to chase football money to pay for non revenue sports is becoming or has become nonsensical. You’re now cutting non revenue sports to accommodate football. So maybe a better solution is to join the Big East and cut football altogether. You might then want to cut 2-3 women’s sports since. a whole bunch of men’s scholarships are going away. Then maybe the Big East could commit to spending $7 million instead of $21.5 Million. Also Duke might negotiate a higher pay me for basketball.

But Duke, like everyone, else will probably just keep chasing football money while making up new reasons to justify why it’s absolutely necessary to do so while creating unreasonable travel demands for those non revenue sports that you care about so deeply. Does Coach K count as someone in the athletic department?
 
Duke should contract with an Indian tribe to put a casino and a dog track on campus to help raise money for athlete salaries. You could community involvement with locals contributing their rent money to the slots and poker machines for the sake of football and non-revenue sports!
 
Good point. For example, I think it makes a lot of sense for the Atlantic Coast Conference to add some traditional Big 12 powers like Central Florida, Cincinnati, or West Virginia. :rolleyes:
ChillinDuke can explain for themselves precisely what they meant, but I seriously doubt they had that list of schools in mind. If the ACC could add Arizona, Colorado, Kansas, and Utah, on the other hand? In my opinion, the ACC should do it. The very notion of "Atlantic" is gone (and was gone when Luhvul and the Domers arrived, really), and pretty much every matchup involving a school not in the Atlanta-DC axis is already a plane flight anyway. Those are the four most valuable schools in the "Big" "12".
 
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