Conference realignment is fascinating feels like the weight teetering above Duke’s head. But the biggest near-term issue is the House settlement. Talked to someone in the athletic department this weekend and it left me feeling concerned for the future of our sports programs (except likely basketball).
But the more pressing issue is the implementation of the House settlement. Lots of moving parts and the chance it gets help up in appeals, but if implemented it lays the groundwork for some very challenging times ahead for Duke athletics.
Nina has been signaling upcoming challenges for the Olympic sports and the House settlement would be the match that starts that fire.
As you all know, would have two big elements.
First, given our revenues, Duke can (and will) provide a revenue share of $20.5m. This would replace the NIL collectives. This is significant more than our current NIL investments. This will force Duke to reallocate resources and cut expenses in other programs. Olympics sports (and large teams like lacrosse) will have to find financial support from friends of the programs at a level well beyond what they receive from those people today.
Second, scholarship limits will be removed. Just as the rev share is kicked in, there will be demand from programs to offer more scholarships. Even if the rev share didn’t happen this would be tough. Given the cost of Duke tuition and board, we will have to focus our resources because we won’t be able to compete. Basketball and football will be fine because they will get all the resources. It is very likely we won’t be able to increase the number of scholarships we offer in other sports. This will definitely impact our competitiveness.
We can say that we have plenty of money, but I can assure you that is not how the administration sees it. Tough times are coming and they will directing their finite resources towards the revenue sports. Especially if rev distribution of ACC schools changes dragging down our revenues.
Simply put, the House settlement, and our response to it, will definitely impact our teams ina big way. Fingers crossed it doesn’t happen. There is some optimism it might not, but the trends are clear. Now I understand why Nina is so worried and vocal about the impending demise of college Olympic sports.