2025 NBA Draft

Sion at #54. At this point last year, how many people even pretty into college basketball knew the first thing about Sion James, let alone would have associated him with the NBA draft?
 
Sam Vecenie out with his preseason mock draft.

- 1. Nets - Cooper Flagg
• ⁠2. Wizards - Ace Bailey
• ⁠3. Blazers - Dylan Harper
• ⁠4. Pistons - V.J. Edgecombe
• ⁠5. Bulls - Nolan Traore
• ⁠9. Spurs (via ATL) - Kon Knueppel
• ⁠13. Thunder (via HOU) - Drake Powell
• ⁠20. Magic - Khaman Maluach
• ⁠29. Nets (via OKC) - Ian Jackson
• ⁠32. Wizards - Mackenzie Mgbako
• ⁠41. Lakers (via LAC) - Tyrese Proctor
• ⁠47. Wizards (via PHX) - Cade Tyson
• ⁠52. Cavs - Sion James

www.nytimes.com

2025 NBA mock draft: Cooper Flagg leads strong group of prospects. But is it a ‘superclass’?

Freshmen at Duke and Rutgers lead Sam Vecenie's latest projections entering the 2024-2025 season.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com
 
SkyBrickey said:
Sam Vecenie out with his preseason mock draft.

- 1. Nets - Cooper Flagg
• ⁠2. Wizards - Ace Bailey
• ⁠3. Blazers - Dylan Harper
• ⁠4. Pistons - V.J. Edgecombe
• ⁠5. Bulls - Nolan Traore
• ⁠9. Spurs (via ATL) - Kon Knueppel
• ⁠13. Thunder (via HOU) - Drake Powell
• ⁠20. Magic - Khaman Maluach
• ⁠29. Nets (via OKC) - Ian Jackson
• ⁠32. Wizards - Mackenzie Mgbako
• ⁠41. Lakers (via LAC) - Tyrese Proctor
• ⁠47. Wizards (via PHX) - Cade Tyson
• ⁠52. Cavs - Sion James

www.nytimes.com

2025 NBA mock draft: Cooper Flagg leads strong group of prospects. But is it a ‘superclass’?

Freshmen at Duke and Rutgers lead Sam Vecenie's latest projections entering the 2024-2025 season.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com
Click to expand...
Is that 9 next to Kon his position on Duke’s depth chart? 😜
 
SkyBrickey said:
No, I'm pretty sure everybody gets your point.

The news here is not where our guys will be drafted. The news here is where the ESPN and NYT "experts" think our guys will be drafted.
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I wasn't sure, given your snarky reply.

I know I don't know more than Vecenie or Givony. I'm not even in the same galaxy as them. What I do know is that their mock drafts this far out are not very accurate. Do you know how many players in the top 30 Vecenie's first 2024 Mock Draft actually went in the first round? I mean, he's an expert. It has to be 20, maybe 25.

The answer is below.
It was 9.
 
azzefkram said:
I wasn't sure, given your snarky reply.

I know I don't know more than Vecenie or Givony. I'm not even in the same galaxy as them. What I do know is that their mock drafts this far out are not very accurate. Do you know how many players in the top 30 Vecenie's first 2024 Mock Draft actually went in the first round? I mean, he's an expert. It has to be 20, maybe 25.

The answer is below.
It was 9.
Click to expand...

That's pretty terrible. 9/30. I'm guessing last year was unusually bad for all the mock drafts with the top UK and Duke guys disappointing and the wave of French talent coming to shore...
 
SkyBrickey said:
That's pretty terrible. 9/30. I'm guessing last year was unusually bad for all the mock drafts with the top UK and Duke guys disappointing and the wave of French talent coming to shore...
Click to expand...
In Vecenie's defense, he posted that before an entire season of basketball took place. An entire season of basketball, especially since so many of these players moved up a level, is a lot of missing data that would have improved the analysis. I also have to think the time missed due to COVID by a lot of the freshmen the past couple of seasons stunted their development during a key time when bodies are changing for young men. I wouldn't be surprised if a good number of college sophomores and juniors from this season are going to pop this year or next.
 
SkyBrickey said:
That's pretty terrible. 9/30. I'm guessing last year was unusually bad for all the mock drafts with the top UK and Duke guys disappointing and the wave of French talent coming to shore...
Click to expand...
Last season wasn't atypical. Vecenie and Givony are great at their job, but their job doesn't really begin until the calendar flips over and people see the players competing against D1 competition.

I am very high on this Duke team and, while it might not be apparent, all of its players.
 
Also worth noting that the 2024 draft class was always considered very, very weak. There were not very many "sure thing" picks in it at the start of the year. That is always going to lead to more volatility and uncertainty.

2025 will be considerably easier. I mean, it would take a truly shocking turn of events for a healthy number of guys to even fall out of the lottery, let alone the first round.
 
azzefkram said:
Last season wasn't atypical. Vecenie and Givony are great at their job, but their job doesn't really begin until the calendar flips over and people see the players competing against D1 competition.

I am very high on this Duke team and, while it might not be apparent, all of its players.
Click to expand...
Not atypical? I don't feel like doing the work, but I'd be shocked if 9/30 is not Vecenie's worst pre-season mock.

Most years there are 4-5 players that are first round locks so then you'd just need to hit on 4-5 out of the remaining 25.

Locks this year: Flagg, Bailey, Harper, Edgecombe
 
azzefkram said:
Last season wasn't atypical. Vecenie and Givony are great at their job, but their job doesn't really begin until the calendar flips over and people see the players competing against D1 competition.

I am very high on this Duke team and, while it might not be apparent, all of its players.
Click to expand...
Correction. Vecenie was better in 2023 (18/30).
 
SkyBrickey said:
Not atypical? I don't feel like doing the work, but I'd be shocked if 9/30 is not Vecenie's worst pre-season mock.

Most years there are 4-5 players that are first round locks so then you'd just need to hit on 4-5 out of the remaining 25.

Locks this year: Flagg, Bailey, Harper, Edgecombe
Click to expand...
We cross posted. 2023 had Wemby, Scoot and the Thompson twins.

I may have gotten a little carried away with the atypical.:oops:
 
DavidBenAkiva said:
In Vecenie's defense, he posted that before an entire season of basketball took place. An entire season of basketball, especially since so many of these players moved up a level, is a lot of missing data that would have improved the analysis. I also have to think the time missed due to COVID by a lot of the freshmen the past couple of seasons stunted their development during a key time when bodies are changing for young men. I wouldn't be surprised if a good number of college sophomores and juniors from this season are going to pop this year or next.
Click to expand...
If he is just going to WAG, then don't bother even posting it. I know it draws a lot of clicks and, as proven here, a lot of discussion, but it is really kind of ridiculous. Hot take culture at its finest. But that is what the people demand. Posting "this year's draft class is all over the place. I have no idea. I will report back in a few month" doesn't draw nearly as many clicks.
 
CrazyNotCrazie said:
If he is just going to WAG, then don't bother even posting it.
Click to expand...

I probably should have written something a few hours ago, but I was wondering where this discussion might go on its own.

Making a 2025 NBA Draft prediction in October 2024 is similar to guessing an entire 2025 NCAA Tournament bracket, or to step outside of sports, establishing a hierarchy of Oscar contenders in all categories. It's a fool's errand, and the fools who do it usually know that they are being foolish. But it provides a sense of structure to something -- large numbers of basketball players, teams, or movies -- that is without form right now. The people who do it (and the people who follow it) find that structure comforting, even if it is a wild guess, because they prefer comfort to chaos.

If there is a point to making such an early draft prediction, it's to establish a start to a series of predictions that will necessarily evolve into something more sensible as the college season goes on. Back in the 2023 draft cycle, before Adam Spinella got hired by the Philadelphia 76ers, he would put out monthly prediction videos of the first round, and I kept track of his rankings for Dariq Whitehead, Dereck Lively, Kyle Filipowski, Mark Mitchell, and Tyrese Proctor. It was a curious exercise at first, but as time went on, it became less and less stupid.

For a better example than Duke 2022-2023, take a look at Kentucky last season, a microcosm of hype vs. reality when it comes to draft predictions. At the beginning of our 2024 NBA Draft thread, take a look at where Jonathan Givony ranked the Wildcats:

5. Justin Edwards (declared, not drafted)
7. DJ Wagner (transferred to Arkansas for this season)
23. Ugonna Onyenso (transferred to Kansas State for this season)
32. Aaron Bradshaw (transferred to Ohio State for this season)
36. Robert Dillingham (declared, picked #8 in the lottery)

NR. Reed Sheppard (declared, picked #3 in the lottery)
NR. Antonio Reeves (graduated, picked #47 in the second round)

It's not just that Givony was wrong, it's that he was wrong in a fascinating way. He followed the hype of a narrative largely cultivated by John Calipari, who believed it enough to start the hyped players and bench Dillingham and Sheppard.

And now Sam Vecenie has Kon Knueppel at #9 overall, based on, what, exactly? A recurring talking point in the Brotherhood Podcasts over the summer? Carefully curated 5x5 practice videos? Eyewitness accounts from Givony and Jon Rothstein -- already primed to look specifically at K2 -- under controlled conditions? Romanticizing the idea of an American Luka Dončić?

I've abstained from the Kon discussions because I don't care enough -- yet -- and also because the more buzz I hear, the less I believe it. If we set a hype-to-reality scale from TJ Power to Jared McCain, I have no idea where Kon would end up. But when the games start, I look forward to finding out.
 
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