Problem is: we need to win THIS game. Our postseason positioning will be significantly dependent on how we do in this 4 game OOC "gauntlet" and if we go 1-3, including a home loss, that's not a good look. We don't have the luxury of holding anything back at this point.
2025 NBA Draft
- Thread starter scottdude8
- Start date
Unfortunately, yep. The state of the ACC has left Duke with little (if any) margin for error. I was perusing T-Rank earlier and noticed that after tonight, Duke only has five games where the win probability is less than 80%. Maybe that has happened in the past, but I can't remember it.
ChillinDuke
Member
I certainly don't disagree with you. But I do wonder if reasonable minds can disagree.
As in, fine, lose 3, 4, 5 early games. So long as we are competitive, rather have those growing pains and still save my cards to flip over at a point in the season when teams have less ability to gameplan for them.
I do not agree with what I just wrote. But someone might. Rather, someone on earth certainly does. Just is that someone Jon?
I do seem to recall Roy's teams taking early season losses as he tried to force his team into his style every year. FWIW
- Chillin
MChambers
Member
No program/school turns more five star players into four (or five) year players!Some fairly significant changes in Vecenie's latest mock:
2025 NBA Draft Big Board: Does Cooper Flagg have competition for No. 1 spot?
Flagg remains at the head of the class, but a flashy point guard from BYU is moving up my top 100 list.www.nytimes.com
1. Cooper Flagg - Duke (unchanged)
2. Egor Demin - BYU (up 21 spots from 23)
3. Dyland Harper - Rutgers (unchanged)
4. Ace Bailey - Rutgers (down 2 spots from 2)
5. Kasparas Jakucionis - Illinois (up 1 spot from 6)
6. VJ Edgecomb - Baylor (down 2 spots from 4)
Others of note--
9. Kon Kneuppel - Duke (unchanged)
11. Khaman Maluach - Duke (up 9 spots from 20)
33. Tyrese Proctor - Duke (up 8 spots from 41)
35. Drake Powell - UNC (down 22 spots from 13)
40. Jayland Lowe - Pitt (down 16 spots from 26)
41. Hunter Salis - Wake (down 23 spots from 18)
69. Elliot Cadeau - UNC (unranked in previous list which only went to 59)
78. Sion James - Duke (down 26 spots from 52)
96. Caleb Foster - Duke (unranked in previous list which only went to 59)
Players of note who were previously in Vecenie's top 59 (2 round draft) who are now no longer in the top 100:
Jalil Bethea - Miami (was #14)
Cade Tyson - UNC (was #47)
Ian Jackson - UNC (was #29)
This latest mock continues what has been a trend for a couple decades now... if you want to go to the NBA, there is no better way to destroy that dream than to go to UNC.
SkyBrickey
Member
It's an offensive complexity issue with a young team. If you go compare our offense last Nov/Dec to what it became in Mar/Apr, it's much more basic. Fewer sets, fewer actions, more predictable.
Jon's early season philosophy is to focus a lot on building a great defense and then installing maybe 50% of the offense - and then to add the other 50% of the offensive system asthe season goes on.
I agree that we need a reliable third playmaker in the PNR. I'm not sure if that's Caleb or Tyrese. I don't think it's Sion, but he's really valuable on offense in other ways. I would love to see Caleb very assertive driving the ball tonight.
Jon's early season philosophy is to focus a lot on building a great defense and then installing maybe 50% of the offense - and then to add the other 50% of the offensive system asthe season goes on.
I agree that we need a reliable third playmaker in the PNR. I'm not sure if that's Caleb or Tyrese. I don't think it's Sion, but he's really valuable on offense in other ways. I would love to see Caleb very assertive driving the ball tonight.
SkyBrickey
Member
kAzE
Member
Updated Top 100 rankings for the 2025 NBA draft: A new player sneaks into the top five
Duke's Cooper Flagg maintains his hold on No. 1, but there's change among the top 10 with some of college basketball's stars moving up.
Here is the full Givony article. I won’t lie, I was shocked to see Kon still at #6. I’m confident he will probably end up in this range, but I thought his shooting struggles would lower his ranking for a couple iterations of the mock. I was also surprised to learn that Kon is nearly 1 and a half years older than Cooper Flagg. That’s pretty crazy.
Here what Givony said about Kon:
“Knueppel is playing a significant role as Duke's second-best scorer and passer, emerging as a far more versatile shot creator, passer and defender than expected. He is already ranking as one of the best pick-and-roll players in this freshman class.
He keeps Duke's offense humming using or rejecting screens, dishing passes on the move around the perimeter, touch passes and pushing off the glass with his head up looking to ignite the break. Despite his outsized role against elite-level competition, Knueppel has played mistake-free basketball, posting a minuscule 8% turnover percentage to this point, a testament to his feel for the game.
He has also been sound on Duke's No. 1 ranked defense, bringing physicality fighting through screens, throwing his body around on the glass, and holding his own one-on-one. He's got terrific timing, technique, competitiveness and smarts to make an impact with his nonstop hustle.
The area of his game Knueppel has struggled with, surprisingly, is as an outside shooter, hitting 4-for-25 3s in Duke's four games against top-25 competition, likely because of how much of a focal point he is for opposing defenses as well as the energy he needs to expend as a shot creator and defender. He has proved that he is undoubtedly a high-level shooter, dynamic coming off screens, with deep range on his pull-ups, and it's only a matter of time until he breaks out, too.
Some might nitpick his physical tools and just-decent efficiency (55% True Shooting), but there's little doubt Knueppel is one of the best pure basketball players in this draft class and has a game tailor-made for the NBA.“ - Givony
brevity
Member
"An elevator pitch -- also known as an elevator speech -- is a quick synopsis of your background, experience, and purpose. It's called an elevator pitch because it should be short enough to present during a brief elevator ride."
The 1988 film Working Girl offers a pretty good example:
Attention spans get shorter, so the elevator pitch has become the elevator sentence. Last year it was "Caitlin Clark is the female Steph Curry". Sure, the WNBA already knew who she was, but that line opened a lot of corporate doors.
Kon Knueppel doesn't even need an elevator sentence. Whether it's justified or not, "American Luka" is a concept so irresistible that some team in the lottery (probably the top 8) is going to take a flyer on him. It certainly helps that Coach Scheyer has his wing doing guard-like things, and he's averaging 3.3 assists and 0.9 turnovers.
The 1988 film Working Girl offers a pretty good example:
Attention spans get shorter, so the elevator pitch has become the elevator sentence. Last year it was "Caitlin Clark is the female Steph Curry". Sure, the WNBA already knew who she was, but that line opened a lot of corporate doors.
Kon Knueppel doesn't even need an elevator sentence. Whether it's justified or not, "American Luka" is a concept so irresistible that some team in the lottery (probably the top 8) is going to take a flyer on him. It certainly helps that Coach Scheyer has his wing doing guard-like things, and he's averaging 3.3 assists and 0.9 turnovers.
kAzE
Member
I’ve seen shades of Luka in K2’s game since last year, but I’ve refused to make that comparison because Luka is clearly a generational superstar who was winning Euroleague MVPs when he was younger than Kon. Kon is great, but he’s no Luka.
Also, Tyrese Proctor only 4 spots higher than Caleb Foster is insane to me. Tyrese is only 2 months older, has been way more decisive with his scoring and playmaking this season, and is a far superior defender. He should be a borderline 1st round pick IMO.
DBKilby
Member
Kon is a lot like Klay Thompson with better ball handling. I don't see NBA player with Caleb at all. He doesn't do anything that jumps out. He's a 3-4 year college player.
SkyBrickey
Member
I've said in the past that McCain has Steph-like skills and Kon has Luka-like skills. And I got dinged hard on here! There's a huge difference to me in identifying some similar skills and claiming that these kids are on that level - they are not (yet).
I'm a huge Kon fan but #6 is super high. I guess the analysts and scouts are giving him credit for where he's exceeding expectations (playmaking, defense) while still expecting that the elite shooting will be there.
We haven't seen much success at all with him shooting floaters or pull up jumpers in the lane - I know it's there and hope we see more of this from Kon along with better 3 point shooting. I think we'll need both consistently from him to win a natty.
SkyBrickey
Member
I've got to agree with you on Caleb at this point. Maybe his path and his ceiling could be Nolan Smith. That would be a great thing for Duke fans. I think Caleb still has an extra gear this year and will help us win some big games. But could he have a Nolan-level sophomore to junior year leap?
g111m1c
Member
I was thinking similarly. Daniel Ewing was the first comp that came to mind for me.
SkyBrickey
Member
Sometimes I'll jump down these rabbit holes. Nolan Smith vs Caleb Foster. Similarly ranked players coming out of HS. Similar CG guard skills although Caleb is a couple inches taller.
Take a look at Nolan's sophomore stats vs Caleb's 9 game stats this season. Pretty crazy.
Nolan: 22mpg, 8.4ppg, 2.2rpg, 1.7apg, 0.9stlpg
Caleb: 21mpg, 8.4ppg, 2.0rpg, 2.1apg, 1.0stlpg
Future ACC POY?
DBKilby
Member
Maybe. I try to live in the present with Duke basketball but I can't help but be very concerned about a Foster, Harris and Boozer back court next year. In my mind Tyrese is gone. Foster isn't a shooter and although little Boozers outside shot has come a long ways I am concerned to say the least about the backcourt. Harris might be more of 3 than a true 2 guard. He has work to do with his ball handling.
SkyBrickey
Member
Yeah maybe. On the flip side, every other team in the country would probably kill for that 3-man backcourt. The country gets a year younger next year so all these 24 year-old grown men will disappear. That will matter.
JasonEvans
Host, The Duke Basketball Roundup
The portal is your friend... I would be very surprised if Duke entered next season with only Foster, Harris, and Cayden Boozer in the backcourt.
Very true. Maybe RJ Davis gets another year and portals since Cheats apparently de-emphasizing men’s basketball.
brevity
Member
No Ceilings released a Big Board 2.0 today in video form.
This is the first half of a 60-player list on the No Ceilings website from December 4. Highlights:
1. Cooper Flagg, Duke
2. Dylan Harper, Rutgers
3. Ace Bailey, Rutgers
4. Egor Demin, BYU
5. Tre Johnson, Texas
6. VJ Edgecombe, Baylor
7. Kasparas Jakucionis, Illinois
8. Khaman Maluach, Duke
9. Liam McNeeley, Connecticut
10. Asa Newell, Georgia
11. Kon Knueppel, Duke
23. Hunter Sallis, Wake Forest
25. Drake Powell, UNC
26. Ian Jackson, UNC
29. Jalil Bethea, Miami
32. Donnie Freeman, Syracuse
44. Tyrese Proctor, Duke
47. Jaland Lowe, Pittsburgh
50. Isaiah Evans, Duke
60. Jamir Watkins, Florida State
This is the first half of a 60-player list on the No Ceilings website from December 4. Highlights:
1. Cooper Flagg, Duke
2. Dylan Harper, Rutgers
3. Ace Bailey, Rutgers
4. Egor Demin, BYU
5. Tre Johnson, Texas
6. VJ Edgecombe, Baylor
7. Kasparas Jakucionis, Illinois
8. Khaman Maluach, Duke
9. Liam McNeeley, Connecticut
10. Asa Newell, Georgia
11. Kon Knueppel, Duke
23. Hunter Sallis, Wake Forest
25. Drake Powell, UNC
26. Ian Jackson, UNC
29. Jalil Bethea, Miami
32. Donnie Freeman, Syracuse
44. Tyrese Proctor, Duke
47. Jaland Lowe, Pittsburgh
50. Isaiah Evans, Duke
60. Jamir Watkins, Florida State
bluedevilwildcats
Member
Was just reading a paywalled ESPN+ article on Flagg: https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/st...strengths-weaknesses-comps-ceiling-2025-draft
The consensus of scouts and GMs is that despite some concerns with his shooting and playmaking so far, Flagg remains the leader for the top spot because of his high floor, but that a team focusing on offense with the #1 pick could look at Dylan Harper.
The consensus of scouts and GMs is that despite some concerns with his shooting and playmaking so far, Flagg remains the leader for the top spot because of his high floor, but that a team focusing on offense with the #1 pick could look at Dylan Harper.