In March/April 2023, Duke did not bring in any late recruits or high-end transfers, and pretty much everyone who wasn't OAD stayed.
In March/April 2024, Duke sought and received commitments from Maluach, James, Gillis, and Brown. There is evidence that several if not all of Roach, Mitchell, Stewart, Power, and Schutt wanted to stay at Duke but did the math once Duke brought in four additional newcomers and decided to leave. If we hadn't brought in those four guys (M, J, G, B), would three or four of the second group (R, M, S, P, S) have stayed? Obviously we can't know for sure, but my guess is yes.
I think this year is similar. If Coach brings in Ament plus two or three high impact transfers, then we can probably expect at least that many of our could-stay-could-go guys to leave. If he eschews transfers then even if we get Ament, we can probably expect most of the maybe guys to stay. It's possible there was some chicken-or-egg element to 2023 and/or 2024, but honestly I think it's as simple as you bring guys in, other guys leave.