2025 Men's Basketball Recruiting

When is the last time we reached mid-July and Duke didn't have a player from the rising senior class committed or at least very close to pulling the trigger? Strange times.
 
DavidBenAkiva said:
When is the last time we reached mid-July and Duke didn't have a player from the rising senior class committed or at least very close to pulling the trigger? Strange times.
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Flip was the first recruit in the class of 2022, and he didn't commit until July 29, 2021. I'd wager we get past that date without a commit this cycle.
 
As I said earlier, most kids are set on deciding late so they have a good understanding of the NIL marketplace. To say it has exploded in the past year is a massive understatement. Offers are being tossed around these days that are 2, 3, 5x multiples of what kids got just a year ago.

On their latest pod, Parish and Norlander said AJ Dybantsa is going to get $3-5 mill to play college ball in 2025-26. That is basically around what the NBA pays a mid-lottery pick. WOW! A year or so ago, that would be the entire NIL budget for a top tier NIL-spending team.

There will be college basketball rosters getting into 8 digits next year, I'm sure of it.
 
crote said:
Flip was the first recruit in the class of 2022, and he didn't commit until July 29, 2021. I'd wager we get past that date without a commit this cycle.
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I remember it being a rush between Flip and Dariq Whitehead to be the first player to commit to Coach Scheyer and Duke. How quaint.
 
JasonEvans said:
As I said earlier, most kids are set on deciding late so they have a good understanding of the NIL marketplace. To say it has exploded in the past year is a massive understatement. Offers are being tossed around these days that are 2, 3, 5x multiples of what kids got just a year ago.

On their latest pod, Parish and Norlander said AJ Dybantsa is going to get $3-5 mill to play college ball in 2025-26. That is basically around what the NBA pays a mid-lottery pick. WOW! A year or so ago, that would be the entire NIL budget for a top tier NIL-spending team.

There will be college basketball rosters getting into 8 digits next year, I'm sure of it.
Click to expand...
I'm looking forward to the time that the market settles and we get some sort of baseline.
 
JasonEvans said:
As I said earlier, most kids are set on deciding late so they have a good understanding of the NIL marketplace. To say it has exploded in the past year is a massive understatement. Offers are being tossed around these days that are 2, 3, 5x multiples of what kids got just a year ago.

On their latest pod, Parish and Norlander said AJ Dybantsa is going to get $3-5 mill to play college ball in 2025-26. That is basically around what the NBA pays a mid-lottery pick. WOW! A year or so ago, that would be the entire NIL budget for a top tier NIL-spending team.

There will be college basketball rosters getting into 8 digits next year, I'm sure of it.
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I'm liking Jon's strategy of focusing on the multi year recruits in that 15-30 range more and more. :)

Can we afford Cam Boozer? Are our days ofbringing in top 5 recruits behind us? Strange times. Sad times.
 
SkyBrickey said:
I'm liking Jon's strategy of focusing on the multi year recruits in that 15-30 range more and more. :)

Can we afford Cam Boozer? Are our days ofbringing in top 5 recruits behind us? Strange times. Sad times.
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There are no guarantees that those guys in the top 15-30 will be multi-year players. One or more could end up in the NBA Draft for better or worse.
 
DavidBenAkiva said:
There are no guarantees that those guys in the top 15-30 will be multi-year players. One or more could end up in the NBA Draft for better or worse.
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And you have to be able to afford to pay them each year. I mean, just because a dude is on your roster as a freshman there ain't no guarantee you get him as a soph even if he decides to skip the draft.

Need look no further than Sean Stewart and TJ Power to see that.
 
DavidBenAkiva said:
There are no guarantees that those guys in the top 15-30 will be multi-year players. One or more could end up in the NBA Draft for better or worse.
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I understand that. But does anyone think Duke can and should be shelling out $2-5M for top10 recruits in the future?

Why would Jon invest tons of energy in recruiting AJ to play for a year if in the end he's just going to expect us to match Alabama or Arkansas or Ohio State's NIL deal?

I know this sounds cynical but it's hard not be. I know Duke will hold some type of discount in the market on these OAD kids because we are Duke. But I can't imagine it would be more than maybe 20-40%. If a top kid is holding a $3M offer from Arkansas and a $1M offer from Duke, what's his agent and family going to advise him to do?
 
DavidBenAkiva said:
When is the last time we reached mid-July and Duke didn't have a player from the rising senior class committed or at least very close to pulling the trigger? Strange times.
Click to expand...
You’re right. These are some really crazy times in college bb. I hope we can get a sixth natty with Cooper and supporting cast this coming season. Not sure what will happen after that!
 
We have put out offers out to I believe 4 kids in that 15-30 range over the past two months. I know we also have offers out to several OADs. But the fact that not even the Boozer boys have committed to Duke yet is a worrisome sign about where this is moving...
 
SkyBrickey said:
I understand that. But does anyone think Duke can and should be shelling out $2-5M for top10 recruits in the future?

Why would Jon invest tons of energy in recruiting AJ to play for a year if in the end he's just going to expect us to match Alabama or Arkansas or Ohio State's NIL deal?

I know this sounds cynical but it's hard not be. I know Duke will hold some type of discount in the market on these OAD kids because we are Duke. But I can't imagine it would be more than maybe 20-40%. If a top kid is holding a $3M offer from Arkansas and a $1M offer from Duke, what's his agent and family going to advise him to do?
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For guys like AJ and Cooper, who are guaranteed to start and be featured prominently at Duke, 2 Mil is nothing compared to the TV exposure and networking opportunities that are unique to Duke. For guys who aren't a guaranteed top 3 pick, 2 million is harder to turn down.
 
kAzE said:
For guys like AJ and Cooper, 2 Mil is nothing compared to the TV exposure and networking opportunities that are unique to Duke. For guys who aren't a guaranteed top 3 pick, 2 million is harder to turn down.
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Point taken. That's the 20-40% Duke discount I was referring to. Maybe it's a 70-80% discount for the top5 guys. Time will tell.
 
kAzE said:
Another thing that helps Duke with the elite recruits is that guys like Cooper will probably have outside sponsorships which pay far more than any school can offer. Cooper is already being courted by every shoe brand in existence. One deal alone with a Nike or Adidas would blow away even the richest NIL offers, making NIL really not much of a consideration in the recruiting process.
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Man, I hope you're right. But even in the best case view, we are facing a lot of new headwind in landing these top recruits...

And part of the evidence is what JE is pointing out and that none have committed. Playing time is a non-issue. So if NIL money is not the driving issue, why haven't any of these top guys committed?
 
SkyBrickey said:
Man, I hope you're right. But even in the best case view, we are facing a lot of new headwind in landing these top recruits...

And part of the evidence is what JE is pointing out and that none have committed. Playing time is a non-issue. So if NIL money is not the driving issue, why haven't any of these top guys committed?
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Jon is possibly still in the "show me" phase. I think he's going to be a great coach, but he is not one yet.
 
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