Predictive value of stars.
To extend a decade after high school, you could look at the 49ers and Chiefs and start counting. Or you could do what I did and plagiarize someone else’s research, though the reference is below.
Among likely offensive starters for the 49ers, average high school star rating: 3.27
For the Chiefs? 2.64
For the 2 teams, the only offensive skill player with a 4 or 5 star rating is Christian McCaffrey.
The article also points out that every NFL team is populated largely with 3 star players. This is partly due to the reality that there are 50 times as many 3 stars as 5 stars every year. There are also 10 times as many 4 stars as 5 stars. Adjusted for those numbers, 5 star players are 70 times more likely to be first round draft picks, but teams are composed of way more than 1st rounders.
Defenses have moderately higher average star scores (around 3.3 for both teams), and the players are more likely to have gotten the 4 or 5 stars (though there are unstarred players dotting both lineups.
I’d add that just about the only non-kicker Duke player in the past decade who was a 2 star recruit was Daniel Jones.
This article argues that the reason that defensive stars are a little higher iis that defensive players are more athletic (or more athletic as 16 year olds?) and that offensive linemen and quarterbacks have to mature significantly before they’re ready for the nfl—and it’d be hard to predict how people are going to mature. This is in contrast to, say, a cornerback, where an expert might be able to watch a 16 year old and see whether they have the sheer athleticism that allows them to cover the fastest guy on the other team while running backwards.
But, back to us: these ratings are probably relevant, but also absurd. Nobody can watch more than 1 hs football game per week. They all play at the same time on Friday. Tape is nice but edited, and most future nfl players are playing against substandard competition most of the time (or at least substandard compared to them).
And we saw the basic reality this past year: Clemson, Florida State, and Notre Dame are all teams with about 55 players who were 4 or 5 star players (way more than any NFL team), while we have a few guys who were bestowed 4 stars—yet we played essentially even with all three of those teams (even as in a couple of breaks, the other team would win).
Anyway, here’s the article:
https://atozsports.com/kansas-city/...-were-rated-as-high-school-football-recruits/
