2024 U.S. Presidential election

I mean, 95% of people (or some similar large percentage) of people can't even correctly place Texas on a blank map of the US.
BTW, this is exactly backwards. According to this article (and, warning, there is some fairly depressing stuff in there), National Geographic conducted a survey asking people to locate a number of states, and "Texas and California were located accurately 92% of the time." So, yeah, I'm not sure you have your finger on the pulse there.

Now, a common rhetorical tactic at this point would be to move the goal posts by reading the article and pulling out some different fact that you think "proves" that Americans are stupid. But I'm sure you're above that kind of useless tactic, right? Besides, you don't seriously want to argue that Republicans are winning because America is stupid, right?
 
If the post-debate bump goes away and it goes back to a 0-1 point Trump lead in the next couple of weeks, will you think that Biden should stay in the race? I know I won’t. And I don’t think there is time to wait and find out.
First of all, I advocated for more competition in the primaries and voiced concerns about Biden as a candidate from the early days of this thread. I've been worried about him for a long time. The debate was just the final straw for me.

And the other thing is that Biden was behind and in a poor position prior to the debate. He actually probably needs to be about 3+ points ahead of Trump to actually win the thing because of Trump's advantage in the structure of the Electoral College. So, when Biden backers say, "he only lost a point or two from the debate" my head starts to explode as I try to explain to them that HE WAS ALREADY LOSING!! The debate was supposed to be his chance to get back in this thing, not fall further behind.

I happen to think that Biden has not fallen further because he has basically found the floor for anyone running against Trump. In our highly partisan times with a super-polarizing candidate like Trump, there is going to be a number that his opponent just cannot drop below. As I said about a week or so ago, "a piece of bologna rotting in the sun" would likely be pulling in numbers similar to Biden at this point.
 
I’m not looking to the polls much to inform my view about whether Democrats should move on from Biden.

What you are showing from 538 doesn’t seem like much of a drop in support for Biden. It certainly doesn’t seem to match the level of alarm we are hearing from many Democrats. It looks more like the normal 2-3 point bump after a candidate loses a debate. Go back to September 29 2020 and you will see a similar bump in Biden’s direction after his win over Trump in that debate. I just think that Biden’s age as well as Trump’s narcissism and lies are so well known now that they are largely baked into the poll numbers, so we are unlikely to see large swings. Maybe I’m wrong.

If the post-debate bump goes away and it goes back to a 0-1 point Trump lead in the next couple of weeks, will you think that Biden should stay in the race? I know I won’t. And I don’t think there is time to wait and find out.
Trump's floor is his ceiling.

Trump is getting all the support he'l get. Biden could come out tomorrow and start speaking in tounges and Trump's support isn't going up or down. What will happen is folks will stop supporting Biden.

Biden has never been popular, what he has been is a viable alternative to Trump that feels mostly normal. With the debate is exposed him as no longer normal, which IMO, makes him no longer viable.

There are folks out there who want to vote against Trump, but they won't vote for someone they don't think is mentally competent to do the job, someone they don't think will complete the next term and someone who they don't think is capable of being commander and chief when woken up for that 3 a.m. emergency. These voters are why Democrats need to switch *IF* the most important issue of the day is defeating Trump and saving Democracy.
 
And the other thing is that Biden was behind and in a poor position prior to the debate. He actually probably needs to be about 3+ points ahead of Trump to actually win the thing because of Trump's advantage in the structure of the Electoral College. So, when Biden backers say, "he only lost a point or two from the debate" my head starts to explode as I try to explain to them that HE WAS ALREADY LOSING!! The debate was supposed to be his chance to get back in this thing, not fall further behind.
Agreed, and I think the “it didn’t really change the polls much” argument ignores the (imo very real) possibility that there will be one or more similar events between now and November. Unless one really believes the cold/ jet lag excuses, the high likelihood is that something else will happen, and I don’t mean just the usual right-wing pile-on every time he misspeaks.
 
Agreed, and I think the “it didn’t really change the polls much” argument ignores the (imo very real) possibility that there will be one or more similar events between now and November. Unless one really believes the cold/ jet lag excuses, the high likelihood is that something else will happen, and I don’t mean just the usual right-wing pile-on every time he misspeaks.
I'd a good thing the job of being a Presidential candidate (or President) doesn't involve flying across the country and coming into close contact of thousands of people. I mean, it's not likely he'll get sick again, right?
 
First of all, I advocated for more competition in the primaries and voiced concerns about Biden as a candidate from the early days of this thread. I've been worried about him for a long time. The debate was just the final straw for me.

And the other thing is that Biden was behind and in a poor position prior to the debate. He actually probably needs to be about 3+ points ahead of Trump to actually win the thing because of Trump's advantage in the structure of the Electoral College. So, when Biden backers say, "he only lost a point or two from the debate" my head starts to explode as I try to explain to them that HE WAS ALREADY LOSING!! The debate was supposed to be his chance to get back in this thing, not fall further behind.

I happen to think that Biden has not fallen further because he has basically found the floor for anyone running against Trump. In our highly partisan times with a super-polarizing candidate like Trump, there is going to be a number that his opponent just cannot drop below. As I said about a week or so ago, "a piece of bologna rotting in the sun" would likely be pulling in numbers similar to Biden at this point.
I’ve stopped watching almost all political news for trying because every time I see Joe Biden I just go into a field of rage, like what I can consider his selfishness and quite frankly lying that he was going to be a one term president. It’s blindingly obvious to me that he does not have the mental capacity to be president anymore much less for another four years and I cannot believe that the people around him are enabling this. Actually I can believe it because people will hold onto their position in a failing institution rather than attempt to change the direction of the institution if it means they lose their status.
 
George Stephanopoulos: “I don’t think he [Biden] can serve four more years.”


Biden’s campaign is mortally wounded at this point. The sooner he comes to accept that reality and to support a transition, the better the chances for the Dems.

It’s over Joe. Sorry.
 
I’ve stopped watching almost all political news for trying because every time I see Joe Biden I just go into a field of rage, like what I can consider his selfishness and quite frankly lying that he was going to be a one term president. It’s blindingly obvious to me that he does not have the mental capacity to be president anymore much less for another four years and I cannot believe that the people around him are enabling this. Actually I can believe it because people will hold onto their position in a failing institution rather than attempt to change the direction of the institution if it means they lose their status.
While I'm not quite there in your opinion, I fully understand it and I doubt much that you are alone.
 
Agreed, and I think the “it didn’t really change the polls much” argument ignores the (imo very real) possibility that there will be one or more similar events between now and November. Unless one really believes the cold/ jet lag excuses, the high likelihood is that something else will happen, and I don’t mean just the usual right-wing pile-on every time he misspeaks.
I agree and this is one reason I’m not putting much weight on the polls.
 
First of all, I advocated for more competition in the primaries and voiced concerns about Biden as a candidate from the early days of this thread. I've been worried about him for a long time. The debate was just the final straw for me.

And the other thing is that Biden was behind and in a poor position prior to the debate. He actually probably needs to be about 3+ points ahead of Trump to actually win the thing because of Trump's advantage in the structure of the Electoral College. So, when Biden backers say, "he only lost a point or two from the debate" my head starts to explode as I try to explain to them that HE WAS ALREADY LOSING!! The debate was supposed to be his chance to get back in this thing, not fall further behind.

I happen to think that Biden has not fallen further because he has basically found the floor for anyone running against Trump. In our highly partisan times with a super-polarizing candidate like Trump, there is going to be a number that his opponent just cannot drop below. As I said about a week or so ago, "a piece of bologna rotting in the sun" would likely be pulling in numbers similar to Biden at this point.
I agree with all of this. I know that you and others on this thread have been concerned about Biden as a candidate for a long time. My mind was changed by the debate , so like many others I am more recently in the Biden should drop out camp.

I just don’t think the polls will tell us much for the reasons you and I have said. I worry when I hear Democrats say they will be following the polls to inform their view because I think this will lead them to continue to support Biden, until one or more debate-like incidents force their hand. By then it may be too late.
 
I think you are forgetting about eight years of Obama who didn't turn 18 until 1979, well after Vietnam. Obama was 47 when he was first elected President and one of the reasons he had Biden as VP was to add someone with a bit more gray hair and DC experience. If he was chosen for gray hair and experience then, I'm not sure what he would be now.

Michael Bennet, who has been periodically discussed here, is the first Dem Senator to break ranks. He didn't fully say Biden should withdraw, but he effectively said it:

“Donald Trump is on track, I think, to win this election and maybe win it by a landslide and take with him the Senate and the House,” Bennet said. “So for me, this isn’t a question about polling, it’s not a question of politics. It’s a moral question about the future of our country, and I think it’s critically important for us to come to grips with what we face if, together, we put this country on the path of electing Donald Trump again.”

Obama ran against McCain and Romney. Both were fighting age during the Vietnam war.
 
every time I see Joe Biden I just go into a field of rage
While I'm not quite there in your opinion, I fully understand it and I doubt much that you are alone.
hand-up-raise-hand.gif
 
Some thoughts about Trump and Project 2025 from Maggie Haberman, The NY Times columnist who follows all things Trump, with CNN's Kaitlan Collins.


Haberman on Monday claimed to Collins that Project 2025 is “not actually a Trump effort” and that his aides “have actually been very frustrated by a lot of” its efforts.

“It is true that some key Trump advisers are involved in Project 2025,” she acknowledged. “It is true that some of those people would almost certainly staff another Trump administration. But there’s a lot of what is in that document that you’ve never heard Trump talk about that I don’t think that he would actually be interested in.”
 
First of all, I advocated for more competition in the primaries and voiced concerns about Biden as a candidate from the early days of this thread. I've been worried about him for a long time. The debate was just the final straw for me.

And the other thing is that Biden was behind and in a poor position prior to the debate. He actually probably needs to be about 3+ points ahead of Trump to actually win the thing because of Trump's advantage in the structure of the Electoral College. So, when Biden backers say, "he only lost a point or two from the debate" my head starts to explode as I try to explain to them that HE WAS ALREADY LOSING!! The debate was supposed to be his chance to get back in this thing, not fall further behind.

I happen to think that Biden has not fallen further because he has basically found the floor for anyone running against Trump. In our highly partisan times with a super-polarizing candidate like Trump, there is going to be a number that his opponent just cannot drop below. As I said about a week or so ago, "a piece of bologna rotting in the sun" would likely be pulling in numbers similar to Biden at this point.
I agree with this wholeheartedly. When people say that there is no way that Biden received 81 million votes, I agree with them and say that he received about 65 million IMO and an additional 16 million voted against Trump. If Biden loses even half of those "never-Trumpers" (they don't even have to vote for Trump, just not vote for Biden), he is toast. With the current narrative of Biden being unfit to run, it would not be surprising to see Trump receive close to same number of votes and Biden receive substantially less.
 
I agree with this wholeheartedly. When people say that there is no way that Biden received 81 million votes, I agree with them and say that he received about 65 million IMO and an additional 16 million voted against Trump. If Biden loses even half of those "never-Trumpers" (they don't even have to vote for Trump, just not vote for Biden), he is toast. With the current narrative of Biden being unfit to run, it would not be surprising to see Trump receive close to same number of votes and Biden receive substantially less.
I wonder if Biden, even though he won, has gotten any votes from people that were "excited" to vote for him. To me, 2020 was him getting a lot of votes from Democrats that wanted to see the White House back in their hands regardless the candidate, and a bunch of independents that "held their nose" with a Biden vote to ensure that Trump didn't get another four years. We know Trump, even though he lost, had millions of voters that were indeed truly excited to cast his way.
The last election that a Democrat candidate ran in that voters were fully backing was in 2012. (HRC had many fully behind her, but she also had an equal amount of "nose holders" given her competition.)

I'm fully certain that almost nobody is "excited" to back Biden this cycle. Maybe his family and a few close friends, and literally everyone else is pinching their nostrils.
 
I wonder if Biden, even though he won, has gotten any votes from people that were "excited" to vote for him. To me, 2020 was him getting a lot of votes from Democrats that wanted to see the White House back in their hands regardless the candidate, and a bunch of independents that "held their nose" with a Biden vote to ensure that Trump didn't get another four years. We know Trump, even though he lost, had millions of voters that were indeed truly excited to cast his way.
The last election that a Democrat candidate ran in that voters were fully backing was in 2012. (HRC had many fully behind her, but she also had an equal amount of "nose holders" given her competition.)

I'm fully certain that almost nobody is "excited" to back Biden this cycle. Maybe his family and a few close friends, and literally everyone else is pinching their nostrils.
I've said up thread but I'll say it again. The Dems have had 12 years since the last Obama election to find a viable and likeable candidate. They've come with Hillary and Joe and are now staring down the barrel of going 1 for 3 against Donald Trump. The Dem leadership is squarely to blame. The Republicans have gifted this incredibly polarizing candidate to the Dems and the Dems still might not beat him. It's a disgrace.
 
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