2024 Presidential Election -- new thread for the final week

[wilson]

Wilson!

Yes, I understand they told him it was Scranton. Whatever it takes!
Where ya been, Wilson? Remote mountain cave?

I heard he was having a ball on a deserted island

'Preciate the warmth, y'all...seriously.
Just been busy with life...parenthood, work, and an adventure whenever I can manage one.
All's well, just not as much time on my hands for the boards nowadays.

 

[bundabergdevil]

Maybe it's just me, but always felt like they could have made a great sequel to Cast Away where Tom Hanks character has this voyage into madness where he can only make love to hookers wearing Wilson volleyball masks.

This is a 10 PM on election night post, not a 1:22 PM. You’ve got a dark journey of exploration ahead of you my friend. Godspeed.

 

[budwom]

^ stay out of those FedEx planes is my only advice

 

[SouthernDukie]

Lord have mercy. Am I really going to abandon my pessimistic ways if Harris wins? I mean, that’s been my bread and butter approach for as long as I can remember. It has served me well all these decades.

I’ve got myself quite a conundrum here. The election results pale in comparison.

 

[Gooch]

Amazingly, Michigan has cast more ballots in early voting this year than their early voting in 2020. Not including election day in-person.

My daughter waited three hours in Ann Arbor to place her early vote. Lots of Dems in line ahead of her…

 

[AGDukesky]

Lord have mercy. Am I really going to abandon my pessimistic ways if Harris wins? I mean, that’s been my bread and butter approach for as long as I can remember. It has served me well all these decades.

I’ve got myself quite a conundrum here. The election results pale in comparison.

If it makes you feel better, there is plenty to be pessimistic about this country even if/when Harris wins

 

[LasVegas]

I voted this AM and then came home to a Harris door knocker at my house asking if I had voted yet. Then I just got a call from another person asking if I had voted yet. The Harris machine is rather impressive.

 

[BandAlum83]

Assumes facts not in evidence.

In all seriousness, I’ll get up tomorrow and see what hath been wrought.

I originally planned to take tomorrow off. I will be bleary-eyed and either depressed or jubilant, but wither way may need to decompress. I haven''t scheduled, but i may decide PTO tomorrow morning.

 

[ClemmonsDevil]

Years from now I will think back on today and chuckle to myself about this election. Then I will pick up my machete and walk across the wasteland. Traveling at night to avoid the marauders.

 

[Furniture]

The best electoral map analysis I have seen.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1853822708955455500

 

[PackMan97]

I voted this AM and then came home to a Harris door knocker at my house asking if I had voted yet. Then I just got a call from another person asking if I had voted yet. The Harris machine is rather impressive.

We are expecting a quite election day. Every registered voter in our household has voted and even our unregistered voters have voted (kids voting, no illegal shenanigans going on). I'll report to the forum any campaign that contacts us so that y'all may openly mock them.

 

[BandAlum83]

For Harris, is the herding thing for real and the polls are actually much stronger in her favor than the pollsters have indicated. We still are getting a strong 50/50 reading from most polls with a slight lean to Trump with the R aligned polls flooding the aggregate. Obviously the Selzer Iowa poll was a shot across the bow. Its not been the only one. There was a Kansas district poll thats been strongly red for years that showed Trump up just 5 over Harris. I don't think Harris wins either, but it does indicate that Trump is much more vulnerable than in the past 2 election cycles.

Hope for Harris now is not a repeat of 2016. There are some fundamental huge differences between the two that they don't necessarily compare. A Trump win isn't going to come as a surprise unless its a landslide.

Hopefully this goes peacefully, and whoever wins does so legitimately and both groups accept the results.

Ummmmm....who has seen this?? New Hampshire poll

New Hampshire Polls

The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20241104_NH_Dartmouth.pdf

 

[BandAlum83]

PredictIt bounced back to land in Trump's favor as well. I'm on record as saying the betting markets aren't any better at predicting the election than the polls, so we'll see how it goes tonight and tomorrow.

Poly market is manipulated and only foreigners can participate is my understanding. So basically useless.

 

[bird]

Poll watching today in a bright blue, urban / university polling location in Richmond, Va. Turnout not impressive so far, but notable is the number of young women voters and that they distinctly outnumber young men here.

 

[BandAlum83]

Today's the day. Mods, thank you for putting up with us for so long. This thread has been my go to for news on the election. I appreciate the knowledge and jokes from all the posters.

I hope we have a safe and peaceful next couple of months. All the pie winners, make sure you don't eat it all at one sitting, you don't want to catch the diabetes.

LOL, I have type two diabetes, I didn't know it was "catchable."

But perhaps I should blame it on moving to NC for college at 17 and being introduced to Sweet Tea (and banana pudding)

 

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Years from now I will think back on today and chuckle to myself about this election. Then I will pick up my machete and walk across the wasteland. Traveling at night to avoid the marauders.

There was a similar joke floating around about four years ago that went something like...

Fifteen years from now, I will put on a jacket I haven't worn in awhile and find one of my COVID masks crumpled up into one of the pockets. I'll pause and remember how troubling and confusing those times were before tossing the jacket into the bonfire I've made in the living room to keep myself warm and to cook my rat for dinner.

Or something.

 

[PackMan97]

Poll watching today in a bright blue, urban / university polling location in Richmond, Va. Turnout not impressive so far, but notable is the number of young women voters and that they distinctly outnumber young men here.

Is that a function of actual turnout or the fact that young men aren't going to college in the same numbers?

 

[Mal]

Yeah, he got a huge following in 2022 because he correctly predicted that there wouldn't be a red wave. But even then, he got the House wrong (saying the Dems would win the House, and continuing to do so after election day, even after it was clear to everyone analyzing the actual vote data was saying the GOP would take it).

Much like the prediction markets, I'm not going to put much stock in him based largely on an N of 1 national election (and not even a presidential election at that).

I get the sense that some of these people are just trying to get on the gravy train that the Nates, Silver and Cohn, established for election prognosticators. Ergo, bold/reckless calls like Bouzy's, although for him it's probably just a low stakes bet, trying to increase his influencer reach, rather than wanting a perch at the Times or something. In a season in which it appears the actual pollsters are exhibiting some herd behavior and the runaway conventional wisdom is "too close to call in any of 7 swing states, overall EV count could be anywhere between 270 and 335 for either candidate as winner," getting the buzz of being the one person who correctly predicted the outlier event seems like a route to the trough.

In any event, feels like anyone who's been to Florida outside of Miami proper should know there's no way Trump loses Florida. I don't know what Bouzy's stated analysis is that leads him to his conclusion. But there's a huge concentration of Caucasian wealth on the coasts and a lot of Alabama in between, and that's too much for more traditionally Dem constituencies in Miami-Dade to overcome, especially with the uniqueness of the Latino population in the state (i.e. traditionally GOP-aligned Cuban-Americans). Florida's not a purple state right now. [Nor is Ohio. Or Virginia.]

If Ann Selzer turns out to be correct, I'm gonna go dig up the post I barfed up either on here or another board where I boldly called Iowa the most likely candidate for "big surprise flip" in the blue direction, and send it in to the NYT with a resume and a note saying "Make me an elections pundit."

 

[BandAlum83]

And just like that Dems have taken the lead in E-Day votes in Clark……..at 8:30 am. Very good sign and is exactly what the Dem party needed to see in Clark.

Do you have a link for real-time voter turnout information, or are you just seeing news updates?

Anyone else with some good links for us?

 

[BandAlum83]

Meanwhile, in Florida, the GOP currently is representing a 1 million ballot advantage among the 9+ million votes cast so far. At this pace, the Dems would need a massive crossover edge and/or huge edge in the NPA/other party vote to have a chance there.

Do you know, offhand, the registration comparison for context?