2024 Presidential Election -- new thread for the final week

[robed deity]

Yeah, the Trump campaign has done a really clever job of convincing the public that the Democratic party has an open border policy, when that is simply completely inaccurate.

The issue of immigration is an incredibly complicated one, and managing immigration well is a challenge. But we most definitely do not have an open border policy, neither on paper nor in practice. It's an area in which the Trump campaign did an effective job of creating a false reality that is difficult to counterargue and that no doubt helps wins votes.

Creating a false reality to help win votes...sounds like his whole campaign about a myriad of topics.

 

[PackMan97]

There is al

How does one access a closed group discussion?

If you have to ask, you weren't invited!

 

[OldPhiKap]

Fidelio

Damn, that may be the darkest thing posted in the whole election cycle.

 

[crote]

Damn, that may be the darkest thing posted in the whole election cycle.

I'd say it reflects a very optimistic take on the content of the group chat.

 

[SouthernDukie]

If you have to ask, you weren't invited!

That’s me then.

 

[acdevil]

First rule of closed group discussion is we don’t talk about closed group discussion.

 

[CameronBlue]

I have studiously avoided posting on this thread for roughly 48 hours, but since it's shutting down soon I'll make my last stab.

Have Trump & Johnson told us their little secret yet, he said they would after the election. Ds should be screaming "It was rigged!". It obviously works as a strategy. I mean, look at the difference in the size & energy of her crowds vs. his. Right? What's good for the goose is good for the gander (if they haven't all been eaten by legal immigrants yet).

Unfortunately, I think we're in for a real **** show. But as an older white man with no kids, I'm probably insulated from most of it (though my new roof is going to cost more, if I can even get one since there will be no workers...and I won't be eating as much produce so my healthy eating habits will slip). Sorry for the rest of you.

I'll try to leave y'all with one optimistic thought. The Rs will overreach. BIGly, and it's gonna be UGly. Each side does, but this is going to be tremendous, the biggest overreach ever. Nobody will have ever seen such an overreach. And there will be the inevitable backlash, so the Ds probably get back control in 2028. Therefore Ds will be in charge of the census and gerrymandering for 2030.

Or we'll be a fascist state in 2028. Sorry, the optimism exhausted me.

Edit: So it was a turnout issue? George Jean Nathan was never proven truer.

Hopefully the days ahead won't be as dark as you fear. But to be safe you may wish to invest in arch supports for the forced marching at dawn bit.

 

[Skydog]

Hopefully the days ahead won't be as dark as you fear. But to be safe you may wish to invest in arch supports for the forced marching at dawn bit.

If forced marches at dawn become the law then the Democrats will probably just fight to delay it by two hours, and then be labeled as far Marxists for doing so.

 

[CameronBlue]

Trump picks his Chief of Staff. First woman to hold the position. Susie Wiles, daughter of Pat Summerall.

 

[lotusland]

I have studiously avoided posting on this thread for roughly 48 hours, but since it's shutting down soon I'll make my last stab.

Have Trump & Johnson told us their little secret yet, he said they would after the election. Ds should be screaming "It was rigged!". It obviously works as a strategy. I mean, look at the difference in the size & energy of her crowds vs. his. Right? What's good for the goose is good for the gander (if they haven't all been eaten by legal immigrants yet).

Unfortunately, I think we're in for a real **** show. But as an older white man with no kids, I'm probably insulated from most of it (though my new roof is going to cost more, if I can even get one since there will be no workers...and I won't be eating as much produce so my healthy eating habits will slip). Sorry for the rest of you.

I'll try to leave y'all with one optimistic thought. The Rs will overreach. BIGly, and it's gonna be UGly. Each side does, but this is going to be tremendous, the biggest overreach ever. Nobody will have ever seen such an overreach. And there will be the inevitable backlash, so the Ds probably get back control in 2028. Therefore Ds will be in charge of the census and gerrymandering for 2030.

Or we'll be a fascist state in 2028. Sorry, the optimism exhausted me.

Edit: So it was a turnout issue? George Jean Nathan was never proven truer.

It’s also true that the new Trump administration is likely going to be incompetent and nuts. All the rational people have been removed. Most likely it going to be hilarious if it weren’t so horrible.

There are going to be mass deportations when the labor market is already super tight? Massive tariffs on everything? You couldn’t write a better recipe for inflation.

 

[Jeffrey]

There are going to be mass deportations when the labor market is already super tight?

One of the Dems biggest mistakes was believing that when the facts prove otherwise….

 

[Jeffrey]

You couldn’t write a better recipe for inflation.

IMO, Biden did (largely due to his pandemic response).

 

[jipops]

IMO, Biden did (largely due to his pandemic response).

Was Biden’s response for all other countries too?

 

[robed deity]

Was Biden’s response for all other countries too?

I would say no, because had it been, they might have fared better in many cases.

 

[sagegrouse]

IMO, Biden did (largely due to his pandemic response).

Not a credible allegation to me -- much of inflation was due to increases in world-wide commodity prices and disruptions to supply chains during Covid. Links between govt spending and inflation are discredited myths Phillips curve, etc.) from 60 years ago, but enough pontification from me....

 

[Jeffrey]

Was Biden’s response for all other countries too?

In many ways, yes. Supply shortages and oil prices have a worldwide impact. IMO, a long US shutdown will create worldwide inflation.

OTOH, Trump is probably going to open up fracking which will drive down worldwide oil prices and inflation. IMO, oil will probably decrease to $40 a barrel in 2025.

 

[jipops]

I would say no, because had it been, they might have fared better in many cases.

Well let’s face it, if Trump had won in 2020 the US would have been the only nation in the world to see no inflation hike coming out of the pandemic. His visionary economic acumen would have been the “envy of the world”.

Hold up, do you smell ham?

https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/economy-forecast-lower-recession-chances-1f24174b

The envy of the world | Oct 19th 2024 | The Economist

The envy of the world. Special reports from The Economist. You've seen the news, now discover the story.

www.economist.com

 

[acdevil]

In many ways, yes. Supply shortages and oil prices have a worldwide impact. IMO, a long US shutdown will create worldwide inflation.

OTOH, Trump is probably going to open up fracking which will drive down worldwide oil prices and inflation. IMO, oil will probably decrease to $40 a barrel in 2025.

In that case, I would recommend that you buy as many puts on oil as you can. You’ll make a fortune.

 

[jipops]

In many ways, yes. Supply shortages and oil prices have a worldwide impact. IMO, a long US shutdown will create worldwide inflation.

OTOH, Trump is probably going to open up fracking which will drive down worldwide oil prices and inflation. IMO, oil will probably decrease to $40 a barrel in 2025.

Yea, should have ignored the pandemic and pathologist guidelines and kept pumping and get more people dyin’. ‘Murica!

The US has had record oil production. We’ll see where that additional fracking process gets it. The number you cite is speculative and doesn’t really account for the cost of the process. And given the fact that we have had record production, evidence shows that supply shocks can have modest effects on the price of oil. So it’s a complex path given this and the known environmental risk.

 

[Jeffrey]

Links between govt spending and inflation are discredited myths Phillips curve, etc.) from 60 years ago…

Spot on, but most people disagree. Amazing since the aftermath of The Great Recession proved substantially increasing government spending doesn’t cause substantial inflation increases.

IIRC, Budwom strongly disagrees with our opinion and he’s very smart and, IIRC, a Wharton MBA.