AlaskanAssassin
Member
There will be an adjustment period for Khaman, but don’t think it’ll be as long as some may think with his experience playing in the Basketball Africa League against grown men and will continue to do so in the Olympics.
2024 Men's Basketball Recruiting
- Thread starter JasonEvans
- Start date
SkyBrickey
Member
It's possible Jon does decide to split Cooper's minutes between the 3/4 and start all three of Flagg/Brown/Maluach.
But if he does, the only way they are on the court together for many minutes is if Ngongba is playing 10-15mpg backing up the 5. And if he does, these minutes are coming directly from K2 and Evans - there just aren't enough minutes to go around.
I've laid out all the reasons why I think this is unlikely. And it has nothing to do with Brown's talent or minutes. He can play just as many minutes per game as the primary backup at the 5/4 as he would as the starter at the 4. It would mean Ngongba only plays garbage minutes while one or both of K2/Evans are in the rotation.
But if he does, the only way they are on the court together for many minutes is if Ngongba is playing 10-15mpg backing up the 5. And if he does, these minutes are coming directly from K2 and Evans - there just aren't enough minutes to go around.
I've laid out all the reasons why I think this is unlikely. And it has nothing to do with Brown's talent or minutes. He can play just as many minutes per game as the primary backup at the 5/4 as he would as the starter at the 4. It would mean Ngongba only plays garbage minutes while one or both of K2/Evans are in the rotation.
JasonEvans
Host, The Duke Basketball Roundup
I would say, "Would anyone be surprised if James, Evans or Kon ended up being better college players than Brown next year?" Having seen Maluach perform against grown men in the BAL (grown men who played P5 D1 baketball, I might add) I just struggle to see a scenario where he is not a quite significant player for Duke.
To me, the uncertainty largely surrounds Brown. He was a very low-usage player on offense who really was asked to finish inside of 5 feet and not do much more than that. Having him on the floor with Maluach could be crowded some of the time. Everyone seems all gaga over his D but I wonder if folks are conflating All-ACC Defensive team with making an All-ACC Team. And let's note that almost half the folks who vote on the All-Defensive team did not even put Brown's name on their ballot so it is not like he was some overwhelmingly obvious elite defender.
I don't want to be seen as dumping on the kid. I love that we got Maliq and think he will be very valuable... but as we search for "Duke's best 5" players and we look at some really intriguing wing options who seem like they may get squeezed out, I think it is worth considering that maybe one of them will excel in a way that leaves a guy who attempted 30% fewer shots than Mark Mitchell out of the 30+ minute per game mix.
And if Brown is more like a 20-ish minute per game guy then I think we may see Flagg playing 15+mpg at the 4.
ChillinDuke
Member
SkyBrickey
Member
For those who don't think Cooper Flagg is a 4 at Duke, I just don't get it. Have you watched him play? The guy plays above the rim, is extremely physical, and is an absolute terror blocking shots in and around the paint.
Just take the matchup down the road next year. Do you want Cooper chasing 6-5 lightning-quick Ian Jackson on the wing or covering 6-8 PF Lubin from Vandy? The second is a much better defensive matchup for him. And it keeps him near the lane to rebound and swat shots.
Jayson Tatum played the 4 at Duke...
Just take the matchup down the road next year. Do you want Cooper chasing 6-5 lightning-quick Ian Jackson on the wing or covering 6-8 PF Lubin from Vandy? The second is a much better defensive matchup for him. And it keeps him near the lane to rebound and swat shots.
Jayson Tatum played the 4 at Duke...
scottdude8
Moderator, front page and podcast contributor
Sky, I agree with you more than I don't, but by no means is that the only way that can happen. I've outlined this scenario before here and also on the pod:
Tyrese, Caleb, Flagg, Brown, Maluach start. For ~15 mpg, Maluach sits and Brown shifts down to the 5. Let's say for ~10 of those minutes Cooper shifts down to the 4, and one of Sion, Mason, or the freshmen come in at the 3. For the other 5 minutes, Mason Gillis is more than capable of playing the 4... he did so extensively at Purdue. That leaves 25 more minutes to distribute at the 4: as the starter, I'd imagine Maliq gets at least 15 of those. That leaves another ~10 minutes at the 4, which I think it's again fair to assume around 5 would be taken by Cooper and around 5 by Mason.
That's ~25 mpg for Maluach, ~30 for Maliq, and ~30-35 for Cooper (since it'll be more straightforward to find him another 5 mpg of rest from his time at the 4). That's predicting Cooper to play ~15 mpg at the 3 and ~15 mpg at the 4. That's very reasonable.
Again, is this necessarily going to happen? Of course not. Would the rotation be easier and more robust if we could rely on Pat for 5-10 mpg? Of course. But it's logically flawed to say that 15+ mpg for Pat is the only way this happens. I just outlined a very plausible path in which it doesn't.
Quick addendum: I don't think that Cooper can't play the 4 at Duke. In fact, I was one of those expecting him to before the roster started coming into focus. And I think he will probably split his time between the 3 and the 4. But I really think it's important to recognize that Cooper starting at the 3 doesn't necessitate the huge reliance on Pat that you've been implying. Maybe it makes it easier, but it isn't a necessity.
SkyBrickey
Member
I go back to this point too. To me this is the greatest evidence that Jon plans to play Cooper at the 4.
Jon brought in 6-6 Mason Gillis, a wing and a natural 3. He could have brought in a backup 5 instead of Gillis knowing that Ngongba just missed a whole season. But he didn't. He's planning on playing Brown as the 15mpg+ backup 5 where Brown really excelled at Syracuse. This leaves Brown with 10mpg at the 4. Starters minutes but not a starter.
There's symmetry here too. Coach has three starters at the 1/2 to play the 80 minutes - Proctor, Foster, James. He also has three starters at the 4/5 - Flagg, Brown, Maluach. Then he's got three wings to play the 3 and to flex down to the 2 or up to the 4 if there are injuries. A perfectly balanced roster (but not if Cooper is playing the 3).
Jon brought in 6-6 Mason Gillis, a wing and a natural 3. He could have brought in a backup 5 instead of Gillis knowing that Ngongba just missed a whole season. But he didn't. He's planning on playing Brown as the 15mpg+ backup 5 where Brown really excelled at Syracuse. This leaves Brown with 10mpg at the 4. Starters minutes but not a starter.
There's symmetry here too. Coach has three starters at the 1/2 to play the 80 minutes - Proctor, Foster, James. He also has three starters at the 4/5 - Flagg, Brown, Maluach. Then he's got three wings to play the 3 and to flex down to the 2 or up to the 4 if there are injuries. A perfectly balanced roster (but not if Cooper is playing the 3).
SkyBrickey
Member
Scott, you are right that Jon could piece together the minutes like this without Ngongba time, but you glossed over my first point that if he does, Flagg/Brown/Maluach won't be on the court together for many minutes anyway. You'll be quicker at doing the math on how many minutes that is in your scenario...
So what's the pro of this approach? I guess you get to tell Brown he's a starter even though he's not playing any more minutes. And you do have a potentially fearsome D for the few minutes that Flagg/Brown/Maluach are on the court together though I think you're neutering Flagg's greatest strength if you have him chasing wings on the perimeter.
I think there are a lot of cons to this approach that I've outlined, but I'll mention one again. Jon has very limited time to install offensive sets and plays and get the team to gel. To take your generational talent and split his brain so that for 15 min per game he is doing this at the 3 and for 15 min per game he is doing this at the 4 doesn't make a lot of sense. You want to keep it simple and build the offense around Cooper.
Proctor at the 1, Cooper at the 4, Maluach at the 5. Let your stars master their positions on offense and learn to play off each other. Let Foster (2/1) and Brown (5/4) be the only two guys regularly asked to play multiple roles in our offensive sets.
I think two things are in tension here.
First, it doesn't make sense for Ngongba to play 0 minutes. Even for a big, you'd expect someone with his ranking to play at least 8 minutes a game, possibly significantly more. I think we all assume that any time Ngongba gets will have to be in place of Maluach. His selection to the US team tells us he is healthy and playing well again.
Second, we have 10 players that you would expect to get significant playing time, but Duke simply doesn't go that deep.
I'm very curious to see how this evolves.
First, it doesn't make sense for Ngongba to play 0 minutes. Even for a big, you'd expect someone with his ranking to play at least 8 minutes a game, possibly significantly more. I think we all assume that any time Ngongba gets will have to be in place of Maluach. His selection to the US team tells us he is healthy and playing well again.
Second, we have 10 players that you would expect to get significant playing time, but Duke simply doesn't go that deep.
I'm very curious to see how this evolves.
SkyBrickey
Member
I believe Brown, James and Gillis are all playing rotation minutes - 15-25 mpg. I haven't heard anybody speculate otherwise.
IF Jon does go with an 8-man rotation, that means only one of K2 Evans or Ngongba is in the rotation. Based on rankings, health and roster construction, I think it's highly likely either Evans or K2 will be our 8th man - or 6th or 7th man if he explodes on the scene like McCain...
My understanding is that Cooper's D is what truly makes him generational, much more than his offense. And while he's an incredible shot blocker, he's maybe even better in space - kind of like UNC Battier, run around and make things happen. My point, I guess, is that I see the shape of the D maybe having a larger effect of minutes than the offense. And I can totally see Cooper logging major minutes at the 3 against bigger teams or teams we don't have to switch as much.
scottdude8
Moderator, front page and podcast contributor
The pro of the approach is simple: you get your most talented players the most possible minutes. Unless one of our freshman not named Cooper or Khaman absolutely blows past our expectations, I think the most likely scenario (again, as of May 29) is that Brown is one of our Top 5 players... again, he was one of the Top 5 defensive players in the entire ACC last year.
I also think you're overvaluing the benefits of Cooper playing exclusively at one position. I don't think there will practically be much difference in how he plays whether he's at the 3 or at the 4. That isn't much a distinction in the modern game to begin with, and I think Cooper is talented enough that the team will revolve around him, rather than him having to adjust to what position he's at and who is on the court with him.
Finally, as far as minutes played together, I think what's most important is that the best group is playing at the beginning and end of games. In the scenario I outlined, it's very likely our best group could play around the first 8 and last 8 minutes together. That's more than fine for a starting 5 on a team that had as much versatility as ours, I think.
sagegrouse
Member
I don't agree. The Duke recruits will get ample opportunity to show they belong and do or do not project as starters. Otherwise, they are history. So, I think you're a bit off in arguing Brown, James ABD Gillis will play +/- 20 mins. Certainly one and maybe two.
"Duke doesn't play a 9-10 person rotation." Boy, it's a new world with 80 % turnover every year. I believe the freshmen will get significant chances to play. Yes, it's hard to plan sets with so many players. Everything's hard. K and Roy and Boeheim retired -- yep -- who signed up for this madness? No one!
SkyBrickey
Member
Yes!!! Battier is probably THE best Duke comp for Cooper. Battier played the 4.
Somebody tell me the last Duke superstar who split minutes between positions. Has it ever happened? You don't make Cooper adapt to the personnel. You make the personnel adapt to Cooper. Just my opinion.
Brown is definitely one of our best 5 players. And I feel like there's a camp of "start your best 5". I'm in the camp of "play your best 5 the most minutes". You don't have to start Brown to make that happen.
SkyBrickey
Member
I'm not sure we disagree. I think by the end of the season it's possible that K2/Evans knock James or Gillis out of the 15mpg+ rotation. I'd be very surprised if we start the season that way but I would be happy - it means K2 or Evans is a budding star. I can't see Brown not getting 20-25mpg. He's too good and there's not the same competition at his positions.
sagegrouse
Member
Yes!!! Battier is probably THE best Duke comp for Cooper. Battier played the 4.
Somebody tell me the last Duke superstar who split minutes between positions. Has it ever happened? You don't make Cooper adapt to the personnel. You make the personnel adapt to Cooper. Just my opinion.
Brown is definitely one of our best 5 players. And I feel like there's a camp of "start your best 5". I'm in the camp of "play your best 5 the most minutes". You don't have to start Brown to make that happen.
Lessee..
Heyman used to bring the ball up.
Grant could play four positions -- and seemed to.
Singler's jersey wasn't retired, but maybe it should be. He played C as a freshman.
If Justise had stayed, he would have played multiple positions.
What about Spanarkel?
SkyBrickey
Member
Brown can get 15mpg at the 5 and 10mpg at the 4. Those are starters minutes.
Positionless basketball doesn't mean you put your 5 best players on the court and everybody spreads out and knows what to do. In both the past years, Jon's offense in February has had a lot more sets and movement than Jon's offense in December. It really takes time for guys to learn where to be and what to do. (Just ask Sean.
) The more reps they get doing the same thing on offense over and over, the better the halfcourt offense flows. You really complicate this if you are asking Cooper to do different things depending on who is in the game. And if you're not asking him to do different things, then he's playing either the 3 or 4 on offense - not splitting time.
Given our personnel, I think all our offensive sets will be designed not so much for 1-5, but for Cooper + 1 big + 3 shooters. Cooper and Maluach/Brown attacking the rim while three snipers line the perimeter looking for their shots or lanes to drive. An offense of Cooper + 2 bigs + 2 shooters looks and flows very differently.
SkyBrickey
Member
I'm not arguing that Cooper can't play the 2-5. He can. But when you only have these guys together for 7-8 months, you really want to keep things simple and maximize reps in certain sets and roles. Cooper will have the ball in his hands on the perimeter a lot no matter what - just like our 5 Flip did last year. The offense will be largely designed around Cooper's versatility. You don't have to make him learn multiple positions to do this...
SkyBrickey
Member
Scott makes a good point that you want to open and close games with your best lineup. I think this raises a really interesting question.
Is a lineup of Proctor, Foster, Flagg, Brown, Maluach (arguably our 5 most talented players) better than a lineup of Proctor, Foster, Gillis/James, Flagg, Maluach/Brown?
I think it's very debatable. My biggest frustration with our offense last year was the lack of spacing and congestion because we didn't have strong shooting at the 4 (Mitchell). I hope Jon always surrounds Cooper (or Brown at the 4) with three plus shooters - this is the modern game and Jon has stockpiled a lot of shooters on this roster...
Is a lineup of Proctor, Foster, Flagg, Brown, Maluach (arguably our 5 most talented players) better than a lineup of Proctor, Foster, Gillis/James, Flagg, Maluach/Brown?
I think it's very debatable. My biggest frustration with our offense last year was the lack of spacing and congestion because we didn't have strong shooting at the 4 (Mitchell). I hope Jon always surrounds Cooper (or Brown at the 4) with three plus shooters - this is the modern game and Jon has stockpiled a lot of shooters on this roster...
