JasonEvans
Host, The Duke Basketball Roundup
It is early in the summer and the team has been somewhat scattered in recent weeks. I’ll reach out to Brendan in a few more weeks. Info then will be more useful than info now.
2024-2025 Men’s Basketball Season: General Offseason Discussion
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DBKilby
Member
I have always thought it would probably be Gillis. I also would find it interesting if Jon played him 30 min/GM when Painter never played him more than 23/gm in 4 yrs. On a separate note , I really love this roster and its pieces.
MChambers
Member
I just went back and looked at the transcript from the podcast. Brendan Marks definitely did not predict that Gillis would be the fifth starter. He simply said he could be, but it could be one of the three freshman wings.
SkyBrickey
Member
Really? I remember him being asked the question and naming Gillis. He may have followed that up with "but it could be anybody", but feel pretty sure he named Gillis first.
Care to post that section of the transcript? If not maybe I'll dig it up later in the day...
Well, unless I missed an email, I don't think I am doing anything with respect to Duke's rotation.Ok, so you're still playing Ngongba as the backup 5 and burying both K2 and Evans on the garbage-minutes bench. Got it. Just checking in. Almost sounded like you were moving in my direction...
This is a lot more fun than the politics thread tonight.
I am entirely focused on the starting lineup. The backups will sort themselves out. I am higher on Pat than you are because I feel he can handle the backup 5 role. The hurdle is lower for a backup 5 than pretty much any other position. If Pat was being considered for the starting 5, I would be significantly worried.
I do think there is larger chance that K2 and Evans get buried on the bench than you do, but I think it is unlikely. Jared and Caleb were the worst defenders on last year's team by a sizeable margin. I consider both more athletic than K2 and Evans. Freshman without a defensive reputation tend to stink on defense. A player who is a negative on the defensive end is the basketball equivalent of a DH. DH's can't be good offensive players, they have to be great. While K2 and Evans could be great offensive players, it is far from a slam dunk. (My sports metaphors are all over the place).
I think Duke has 10 players who, on paper, are capable of rotation minutes. Regardless of who starts and where they play, if Jon plays a typical Duke 7.5 man rotation, three people will be unhappy. I was holding out hope that Jon may extend the rotation but then he briefly mentioned on the recent TDD podcast how difficult it is to play 9 players. I am still, probably foolishly, hoping that Jon will extend the rotation.
MChambers
Member
“Maybe, potentially, right now I would say that it would, if I had to peg it now, I'd probably say either Gillis or one of Nuppel, Evans or Harris would fill that role.”
From Duke Basketball Roundup: #631 - Brendan Marks Interview Part 1 - Duke’s rebuilt roster, Jun 14, 2024
#631 - Brendan Marks Interview Part 1 - Duke’s rebuilt roster
Podcast Episode · Duke Basketball Roundup · 06/14/2024 · 57m
podcasts.apple.com
Now, he had a lot of nice things to say about Gillis, especially as to leadership, so maybe that's what you're remembering.
UrinalCake
Member
Yeah I remember it as Marks saying the 5th starter spot is wide open and it's too early to know who it will be, but if he had to pick someone he would say Gillis just because he knows Jon will want shooting in the front court to spread the floor around Flagg. He was by no means saying it was a sure thing that Gillis would start.
SkyBrickey
Member
This is how I remember it too. He was not certain but felt Gillis was probably the front runner. Maybe I heard what I wanted to hear since that was my thinking at the time. Anyway... I'm sure the deck will be reshuffled many times before November.
SkyBrickey
Member
So Azz, I think this really cuts to the heart of the debate we are having. If we agree Jon is only playing a 7.5 man rotation (8 guys) late in the season then who are our 9th, 10th and 11th men?Well, unless I missed an email, I don't think I am doing anything with respect to Duke's rotation.
I am entirely focused on the starting lineup. The backups will sort themselves out. I am higher on Pat than you are because I feel he can handle the backup 5 role. The hurdle is lower for a backup 5 than pretty much any other position. If Pat was being considered for the starting 5, I would be significantly worried.
I do think there is larger chance that K2 and Evans get buried on the bench than you do, but I think it is unlikely. Jared and Caleb were the worst defenders on last year's team by a sizeable margin. I consider both more athletic than K2 and Evans. Freshman without a defensive reputation tend to stink on defense. A player who is a negative on the defensive end is the basketball equivalent of a DH. DH's can't be good offensive players, they have to be great. While K2 and Evans could be great offensive players, it is far from a slam dunk. (My sports metaphors are all over the place).
I think Duke has 10 players who, on paper, are capable of rotation minutes. Regardless of who starts and where they play, if Jon plays a typical Duke 7.5 man rotation, three people will be unhappy. I was holding out hope that Jon may extend the rotation but then he briefly mentioned on the recent TDD podcast how difficult it is to play 9 players. I am still, probably foolishly, hoping that Jon will extend the rotation.
I believe they will be Harris, Ngongba and one of James/Gillis/Evans. And I say this shaking my head at all the talent, because I truly believe Harris and Ngongba can start in 2025-26. And I believe Evans is a high-end NBA prospect. And I think James and Gillis are both super talented and bring a lot of needed toughness and experience.
It's easy to say playerX should play. They all should. It's a lot harder to say who are the three guys outside the rotation - our 9th, 10th and 11th men. So who do you have?
Three things. One, Duke just had a top-10 offense with three starters shooting 35% or worse from 3. I am not willing to assume that lineup will be atrocious on offense. Two, most teams don't play zone and probably rarely practice it. If a team wants to play its third, fourth, or fifth best defense against Duke, I'd call that a win. Three, a zone is notoriously difficult to rebound out of, and I would imagine that issue is even more challenging for teams that don't often play zone. Maliq is a very good rebounder for a 4. We don't know, but I would expect Cooper and Khaman to be at least good rebounders.
I'd say the likelihood for that lineup having an aesthetically pleasing offense is probably low, but that does not mean it can't be effective. Until they start awarding wins based on style points, I'm okay with winning ugly. Also, many seem to be forgetting that an elite defense can help the offense.
I don't think Brown came to Duke to be insurance. He came to play. I would be surprised if Khaman didn't start. He might (probably) limit himself with fouls but I expect him to start both halves.
My 11th guy is Darren. After that, I could make an argument for or against Pat, Sion, K2, and Evans. Based upon what Jon has said I think Gillis is firmly in the rotation. I flip flop between Mason and Maliq as the fifth starter.
I do think there is a timing component. Jon playing 7 or 8 at the end of the season is not much of an issue. Jon playing 7 or 8 in November/December is.
SkyBrickey
Member
I thought you were squarely in the camp of Maliq starting and Pat playing the backup 5.
But from this post it sounds like you are considering that Mason could start and Pat might be out of the rotation. You don't want to say it, but you're moving toward me, Azz!
Knucklehead
.I am firmly in the camp of Maliq starting, but I can see the logic behind Gillis starting.
SkyBrickey
Member
Ok, that response is as clear as a slice of strawberry rhubarb pie. Yummm...Knucklehead
I am firmly in the camp of Maliq starting, but I can see the logic behind Gillis starting.
SkyB, SkyB, SkyB.
You may not be aware of this, but I have certain mystical talents. I am getting a vision from the great beyond. A vision of you and... chickens.. so many chickens... and they are being counted... why, why would they be counted... it is not their time... the chickens, they aren't there... but you are still counting... SkyB step away from the imaginary chickens before it's too late.
Phew. Those visions take a lot out of me.
I'm a little confused. Should this be in the Long Strange Trip thread?SkyB, SkyB, SkyB.
You may not be aware of this, but I have certain mystical talents. I am getting a vision from the great beyond. A vision of you and... chickens.. so many chickens... and they are being counted... why, why would they be counted... it is not their time... the chickens, they aren't there... but you are still counting... SkyB step away from the imaginary chickens before it's too late.
Phew. Those visions take a lot out of me.
SkyBrickey
Member
Hahaha. Ok, you win today.SkyB, SkyB, SkyB.
You may not be aware of this, but I have certain mystical talents. I am getting a vision from the great beyond. A vision of you and... chickens.. so many chickens... and they are being counted... why, why would they be counted... it is not their time... the chickens, they aren't there... but you are still counting... SkyB step away from the imaginary chickens before it's too late.
Phew. Those visions take a lot out of me.
DukieInBrasil
Member
I saw that Maluach had a couple of buckets vs Team USA, one was a perimeter jumper (probably a 3 in NCAA) and another an NBA 3. That should put to rest the question of whether he can hit them while at Duke. Although highlight films are made to show offense, it was hard to see Maluach having any impact on the defensive side of the ball. Then again, he was going up against (some of) the best NBA players out there. Anyway, bodes well for Duke this coming year!
MChambers
Member
Yes, after watching him in the BAL, I thought his offense was ahead of his defense (and said so here). I'm not surprised by his foul trouble, because he's too aggressive defensively and because he was going up against top NBA players. I think his defense will be okay next year, but not anywhere near Lively. Probably more like freshman Mark Williams, with lots of improvement over the course of the season.
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