2024-2025 Men’s Basketball Season: General Offseason Discussion

[SkyBrickey]

SkyB, SkyB, SkyB. You really are the Simone Biles of mental gymnastics.

Let's go with your wacky, nutty, goofy PG, 3 Wings, and a Baby. Oops I mean Big. (Selleck, Danson, and Guttenberg may be available).

I hope everyone is sitting down because I'm going to do some math.

Let's start with the Big first. To humor you, I am going to assume that Jon gets kicked in the head by the family mule over the summer and decides to relegate Duke's second best defender (Maliq) to a backup role. All ACC defender Maliq played 30 mpg last year. Let's leave him at that number. He will not start at the Big. That is covered by Khaman, Let's be really conservative and say that Khaman will only play 20 mpg. Maliq covers the other 20 and Pat fills the role as future transfer. Maliq needs 10 more mpg so your 120 mpg for 3 Wings just became 110.

PG is covered by Tyrese and Caleb, but they played 55 mpg last season so one of them is going to play in your 3 Wing group (unless either has a massive growth spurt over the summer then maybe Big). Both did not stay for the same role so let's conservatively bump them to 60 mpg. We have 2 players who expect to play 60 mpg but PG only has 40 mpg available. Breaking out the ol'calculator I calculate that 60-40=20. Where, o' where will that 20 go. I know, that 110 mpg for the 3 Wings will become 90 mpg.

So, we are on to the infamous 3 Wing group and left with 90 mpg. Cooper will be the best player on the team and will command at least 30 mpg. We are now down to 60 mpg. The reigning B10 Sixth Man of the Year never player less than 20 mpg on a team that finished 20, 10, 3, and 2 during his 4 years. I think we can confidently say that he will be better at college basketball than any freshman not named Cooper, but for arguments sake let's leave his minutes at 20. We are down to 40 mpg.

So we have 40 mpg for Sion, Kon, Evans, and Darren. Sion never played less than 26 mpg at the D1 level which is better than anything Kon, Evans and Darren faced. Sion is going to be significant competition for Kon, Evans and Darren for the remaining 40 mpg.

Long story short, there will be far, far, far more competition for minutes than any freshman group has faced at Duke in a long time.

Yes, you're coming around Azz!

Now you see that if you played Ngongba at the backup 5, Brown at the 4 and Cooper at the 3, there would be a ludicrous logjam for wing minutes where Jon would likely be parking two projected first round draft picks on the deep bench. Not going to happen.

The main thing I'd question in your analysis is clearly slotting Gillis ahead of K2/James/Evans. I see it as a 4-man battle for probably about 65mpg at the wings.

And while I'm enjoying the view on K2 island, I could see it playing out in a lot of different ways. All 4 of these guys are super talented with different strengths and weaknesses. While it could be 15mpg each, I think it's more likely to look something like 25/25/15 giving us an 8-man rotation and leaving one of these guys as our 9th man.

 

[SkyBrickey]

Grant and Shane had 20 and 15 lbs on Cooper. Both were older than Cooper when entering Duke.

When they entered as freshmen? I find that hard to believe. Yes, they were a year older. They were also not finishing and-one put backs over Bam Abedayo!

I'm not saying Flagg-Brown-Maluach wouldn't be a GREAT defensive lineup. It would be. Outstanding. And we may see it some this year. But it has two major drawbacks if it's a primary lineup: 1) Brown can't spread the floor like a Gillis or K2 and 2) it would require Ngongba to play backup Center minutes and relegate 2 very talented Wings (Gillis or James or K2 or Evans) to the deep bench.

 

[hustleplays]

Nice pic:
View attachment 17413

Glorious picture of Past, Present and Future!

 

[JasonEvans]

When they entered as freshmen? I find that hard to believe. Yes, they were a year older. They were also not finishing and-one put backs over Bam Abedayo!

Bam Adebayo was just 1 when Shane arrived on campus as a freshman. I bet Shane could have dunk all over him all day long!!

 

[SkyBrickey]

Bam Adebayo was just 1 when Shane arrived on campus as a freshman. I bet Shane could have dunk all over him all day long!!

Haha. Dang, I feel old.

"Who's your Daddy, Bam?"

Hope Shane reappears in the public eye again one day. Battier for Prez 2032?

 

[phaedrus]

There is a wide gap between not starting and being benched. Heck, there is a wide gap between being a moderately used role player and being benched.

Of course, but the post I was responding to predicted that Kon would “barely see the light of day when ACC play begins”. I’d call that being benched.

In order of likelihood, I think by ACC play KK will be: 1. a key reserve, 2. a starter, and 3. benched.

 

[phaedrus]

Apples and oranges. No RSCI #15 guard has faced anything remotely like this level of competition for minutes. Go back and look. Prior to this season, you could write an RSCI #15 guard into the lineup for 25 mpg in ink. There was no other option. Kon faces competition from Tyrese, Caleb, Evans, Cooper, Sion, Mason, and Darren. It's not crazypants to say at least 3 of those players are ahead of him on the depth chart.

I referenced the RSCI ranking as one indicator of KK’s ability in addition to the others already mentioned. Retorts can be levied against any of them, but when you add them up, the picture becomes clearer.

Further, you are suggesting this is categorically the deepest team Duke has ever had. But there’s not a single surefire All-ACC player on the roster, other than one freshman (Flagg). Any RSCI 15 guard we’ve ever had would be in the mix for minutes on this team.

 

[SkyBrickey]

I referenced the RSCI ranking as one indicator of KK’s ability in addition to the others already mentioned. Retorts can be levied against any of them, but when you add them up, the picture becomes clearer.

Further, you are suggesting this is categorically the deepest team Duke has ever had. But there’s not a single surefire All-ACC player on the roster, other than one freshman (Flagg). Any RSCI 15 guard we’ve ever had would be in the mix for minutes on this team.

Yeah, I keep making the point that K2 and Evans are ranked very close to McCain coming in. And in a stronger recruiting class...

No, it doesn't guarantee that either or both will be as a good as McCain. But I think it's a good perspective to have when considering this competition for wing minutes. Would McCain get buried on the deep bench as the 9th man behind Gillis and James?

 

[phaedrus]

So Gillis played 20 mpg for a team that was much better than Duke was last year, has the experience of going beyond the E8, and has actually played against college players. But that in no way equates to being good enough to play as many or more minutes on this team. Brown was defensive POY in the ACC last year and hyper-efficient scoring around the rim. Yet draft-board predictions, from before these kids have even played a game mind you, consigns the, again, defenisve POY to a minor role. Got it.

Gillis strikes me as quite good at a couple of things (basically, 3 and D), and somewhat limited otherwise. Such players can carve out a rotation role on almost any team, but are unlikely to play starter’s minutes on a good team unless the team offense is so dynamic that they can basically camp out in the corner without limiting the team offensive efficiency.

I think Gillis is most likely to play around the same minutes as he did at Purdue, maybe a little more or less. He will only play a lot more if the other wings are worse than expected or if Flagg or others consistently generate shots for him.

And I’d say most of us are hoping Duke is better than last year - closer to last year’s Purdue. If true, it shouldn’t be a surprise if Gillis plays a similar role.

 

[JayZee]

Haha. Dang, I feel old.

"Who's your Daddy, Bam?"

Hope Shane reappears in the public eye again one day. Battier for Prez 2032?

Maybe he could reclass (it’s in vogue these days) and go for ‘24…

 

[cato]

When they entered as freshmen? I find that hard to believe. Yes, they were a year older. They were also not finishing and-one put backs over Bam Abedayo!

I'm not saying Flagg-Brown-Maluach wouldn't be a GREAT defensive lineup. It would be. Outstanding. And we may see it some this year. But it has two major drawbacks if it's a primary lineup: 1) Brown can't spread the floor like a Gillis or K2 and 2) it would require Ngongba to play backup Center minutes and relegate 2 very talented Wings (Gillis or James or K2 or Evans) to the deep bench.

This Grant Hill? Magic 8 Ball says yeah, he could do that as a freshman.

 

[SkyBrickey]

This Grant Hill? Magic 8 Ball says yeah, he could do that as a freshman.

Absolutely. Why I compared Cooper to Grant. And so cool to see that recent pic of Grant, Tatum and Cooper.

 

[UrinalCake]

I remember

i dunno, that 2 seconds of footage showing Kon locking down RJ Davis and forcing him into an air-balled 3 ptr has me convinced that KK will be the team's best 1-on-1 perimeter defender.

I remember seeing a clip of Marvin Bagley shutting down Javalle McGee on one possession in the Drew League before arriving at Duke, and being convinced that he would be an elite defender.

Kon doesn't have to be an elite defender though. A taller version of McCain would be amazing.

 

[UrinalCake]

And the fact that no RSCI #15 guard has ever been benched like this at Duke.

FWIW, Maggette was #16 in the RSCI in 1998 and came off the bench. I wouldn't mind another season like that

 

[DBKilby]

FWIW, Maggette was #16 in the RSCI in 1998 and came off the bench. I wouldn't mind another season like that

#16 is criminal looking at the others ranked ahead of him that hear I think scouting although not an exact science is light years better now. Imagine if Maggette came out this year? He is probably top 5 at the least.

 

[sagegrouse]

#16 is criminal looking at the others ranked ahead of him that hear I think scouting although not an exact science is light years better now. Imagine if Maggette came out this year? He is probably top 5 at the least.

Scouting is much better now. In 1997-98 there was little competition at the national level, so no basis for comparisons. Those evaluating recruits were understandably influenced by college offers by K and Dean and others.

 

[azzefkram]

Yes, you're coming around Azz!

Now you see that if you played Ngongba at the backup 5, Brown at the 4 and Cooper at the 3, there would be a ludicrous logjam for wing minutes where Jon would likely be parking two projected first round draft picks on the deep bench. Not going to happen.

The main thing I'd question in your analysis is clearly slotting Gillis ahead of K2/James/Evans. I see it as a 4-man battle for probably about 65mpg at the wings.

And while I'm enjoying the view on K2 island, I could see it playing out in a lot of different ways. All 4 of these guys are super talented with different strengths and weaknesses. While it could be 15mpg each, I think it's more likely to look something like 25/25/15 giving us an 8-man rotation and leaving one of these guys as our 9th man.

I'm not sure how you get I'm coming around from what I wrote. I did mention that Jon would have to be kicked in the head by the family mule to consider bringing Maliq off the bench. My starting five remains Tyrese, Caleb, Cooper, Maliq, and Khaman.

I don't think Jon will start 3 freshmen (2 of which will be 17 when the season starts) after saying he wants to get older and tougher. I don't think Jon put together one of the tallest teams I can remember just to play "small.". I think Jon is too defense focused to even consider bringing his second best defender off the bench, especially for a player who will be a huge negative on the defensive end.

I couldn't care less if starting the five best players creates a log jam on the wing. A team wins a resounding majority of its games with its starters.

I am happy that you think Kon will be a great player as a freshman. I don't, and nothing I've seen or read has convinced me to reassess that opinion. If Kon was 3 inches taller and 15-20 pounds heavier, I would be conducting the Kon starts at the 4 train. Unfortunately, he isn't, so the most likely outcome is that Kon will be a poor defender because he is a freshman without a defensive reputation and has suspect lateral quickness without the length to compensate for it.

 

[SkyBrickey]

I'm not sure how you get I'm coming around from what I wrote. I did mention that Jon would have to be kicked in the head by the family mule to consider bringing Maliq off the bench. My starting five remains Tyrese, Caleb, Cooper, Maliq, and Khaman.

I don't think Jon will start 3 freshmen (2 of which will be 17 when the season starts) after saying he wants to get older and tougher. I don't think Jon put together one of the tallest teams I can remember just to play "small.". I think Jon is too defense focused to even consider bringing his second best defender off the bench, especially for a player who will be a huge negative on the defensive end.

I couldn't care less if starting the five best players creates a log jam on the wing. A team wins a resounding majority of its games with its starters.

I am happy that you think Kon will be a great player as a freshman. I don't, and nothing I've seen or read has convinced me to reassess that opinion. If Kon was 3 inches taller and 15-20 pounds heavier, I would be conducting the Kon starts at the 4 train. Unfortunately, he isn't, so the most likely outcome is that Kon will be a poor defender because he is a freshman without a defensive reputation and has suspect lateral quickness without the length to compensate for it.

Ok, so you're still playing Ngongba as the backup 5 and burying both K2 and Evans on the garbage-minutes bench. Got it. Just checking in. Almost sounded like you were moving in my direction...

This is a lot more fun than the politics thread tonight.

 

[DBKilby]

I'm not sure how you get I'm coming around from what I wrote. I did mention that Jon would have to be kicked in the head by the family mule to consider bringing Maliq off the bench. My starting five remains Tyrese, Caleb, Cooper, Maliq, and Khaman.

I don't think Jon will start 3 freshmen (2 of which will be 17 when the season starts) after saying he wants to get older and tougher. I don't think Jon put together one of the tallest teams I can remember just to play "small.". I think Jon is too defense focused to even consider bringing his second best defender off the bench, especially for a player who will be a huge negative on the defensive end.

I couldn't care less if starting the five best players creates a log jam on the wing. A team wins a resounding majority of its games with its starters.

I am happy that you think Kon will be a great player as a freshman. I don't, and nothing I've seen or read has convinced me to reassess that opinion. If Kon was 3 inches taller and 15-20 pounds heavier, I would be conducting the Kon starts at the 4 train. Unfortunately, he isn't, so the most likely outcome is that Kon will be a poor defender because he is a freshman without a defensive reputation and has suspect lateral quickness without the length to compensate for it.

That line up would be atrocious on offense and opposing teams would just run zone. I think is Brown is insurance for Khamans readiness and Ngongba injury like Ryan Young was for Lively. I think there is a better chance Brown starts at the 5 to start the season than starting along with Khaman to start the season. I do agree with you that I don't think Jon starts 3 freshman but if Kon is our best shooter then he has to play.

 

[SkyBrickey]

That line up would be atrocious on offense and opposing teams would just run zone. I think is Brown is insurance for Khamans readiness and Ngongba injury like Ryan Young was for Lively. I think there is a better chance Brown starts at the 5 to start the season than starting along with Khaman to start the season. I do agree with you that I don't think Jon starts 3 freshman but if Kon is our best shooter then he has to play.

Brendan Marks knows a lot more than any of us and has connections to the team. He predicted that Mason Gillis would be our 5th starter. He's the ultimate 3 & D guy. I think that's the likely answer unless someone like Kon beats him out.

Would be really interesting if Jason Evans was willing to email BM to see if he still believes Mason will be our 5th starter with all the K2 hype. What do you say JE?