This Week in the ACC - 11/18-11/24

House P said:
It is still too early to be particularly meaningful, but Pitt currently has the 11th best rating in the country per Torvik if you remove the pre-season component.

Although the initial NET rakings haven't been released yet, Pitt is doing exactly what you need to do in order to be ranked highly in the NET - they have been blowing out the competition. In 5 games so far, Pitt's average margin of victory is 28.6 points. That includes a 24 point win vs WVU. Pitt's 19 point win vs Gardner Webb was by a bigger margin than Tennessee managed vs the same opponent.

Pitt's next 4 games (LSU, Wisconsin/UCF, @Ohio St, @Miss St) will tell us a lot about whether or not these early season blowouts are a mirage or not.

Here is how the ACC shakes out if you remove the pre-season component of Torvik's ratings

Duke (#4) and Pitt (#11) are the only ACC teams in the top 40.
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Yes, Pitt has settled on a roster 8 person roster and left them in most of the game even against VMI. It causes a blowout and gives them experience as a team but doesn't develop a bench. KK is fiddling with his roster and we have no idea if he has learned any lessons from last season.

Tonight Louisville is in a gripping matchup with 0-4 Bellarmine and FSU is on track to break their drought of sub 25pt halfs, or maybe not.
 
House P said:
It is still too early to be particularly meaningful, but Pitt currently has the 11th best rating in the country per Torvik if you remove the pre-season component.

Although the initial NET rakings haven't been released yet, Pitt is doing exactly what you need to do in order to be ranked highly in the NET - they have been blowing out the competition. In 5 games so far, Pitt's average margin of victory is 28.6 points. That includes a 24 point win vs WVU. Pitt's 19 point win vs Gardner Webb was by a bigger margin than Tennessee managed vs the same opponent.

Pitt's next 4 games (LSU, Wisconsin/UCF, @Ohio St, @Miss St) will tell us a lot about whether or not these early season blowouts are a mirage or not.

Here is how the ACC shakes out if you remove the pre-season component of Torvik's ratings

Duke (#4) and Pitt (#11) are the only ACC teams in the top 40.
Click to expand...
Completely forgot about Torviks site, thank you bringing that back to the top of mind.
 
Vtech and Stanford with games tonight. Stanford is hosting Norfolk St in cali, that's a long trip so I guess Norfolk st is doing a few games while on the West Coast. Vtech vs Jacksonville 2-2. Both schools are 19x according to Kenpom.

Out of conference we have Bama vs Illinois. That could be interesting. On the sec network at 9pm, too late for an old sick man.
 
Yikes indeed!

Bama played a game where they looked the part. T A&M almost blew a game ...they came back in the second half.

Jason will surely have to have Vtech in the list of 3 ACC teams surprising to the downside. Wake and Vtech have to be on the bottom ...who else?

I am curious as to who looks good? BC and Stanford and Cal were picked to finish at the bottom and all look better than that Cal dropped a game to Vandy but beat USC. Do you give UVA a hall pass after benet pulls the resign so the assist gets the HC job?
 
dukewolf said:
Jason will surely have to have Vtech in the list of 3 ACC teams surprising to the downside. Wake and Vtech have to be on the bottom ...who else?
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I recorded prior to VT's absolutely stinker last night and they were projected to be pretty bad anyway. They started the year as KenPom's #98 team and entered last night as the #111. They did not make my list of the 3 most disappointing so far.

If we had recorded today, it would probably be a different story.

Episode will drop this afternoon.
 
dukewolf said:
Jason will surely have to have Vtech in the list of 3 ACC teams surprising to the downside. Wake and Vtech have to be on the bottom ...who else?
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Wake Forest is 5-1, with a neutral court victory over Michigan (KenPom #25) and a road loss to Xavier (#43). How are they on the bottom?

I could agree on Virginia Tech -- no shame in the neutral loss to Penn State (#35) but a bit more in the home loss to Jacksonville (#155). Meanwhile, Georgia Tech is 2-2, the only ACC team without a winning record, still smarting from home losses to North Florida (#166) and a decent Georgia (#57). Those two Atlantic Sun losses are probably the worst by ACC teams this season.

There's not an obvious choice for a bad 3rd ACC team right now. Duke, FSU, Louisville, and UNC each have one loss to a ranked opponent. Boston College lost by 25 on a neutral court to VCU (#34), and Clemson lost by 13 at Boise State (#36), while California lost by 16 at Vanderbilt (#86), and SMU lost by 11 at Butler (#89). Which of those is the worst loss?

A stealth candidate is actually one of the undefeated teams: Syracuse is about as unimpressive as a 3-0 team can be. They've played 3 home games, beating #340 Le Moyne by 4, #235 Colgate by 2, and needing 2OT to get past #183 Youngstown State.
 
The 3 teams I highlighted were Wake, Syracuse, and GT. As Syracuse proves, winning games does not mean you are playing well. Given the level of the opposition, Syracuse appears to be near the bottom of the ACC.

Wake began the year #44 in KenPom with many saying Ken was underrating them. They are currently #84.
 
Brendan Marks, always an excellent writer, has a nice piece on RJ Davis' decision to return to UNC for his Covid bonus year.

www.nytimes.com

Why UNC star RJ Davis couldn’t resist returning for his fifth season — and one more shot

Davis sprouted into a full-blown star last season. But he still wants a chance at a redo of UNC's 2022 run to the NCAA title game.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com

I am certainly no fan of Davis, but I do respect what he has done in college and the rationale behind his decision to come back for one more shot at a ring.

With his mind racing, Davis stepped outside to gather his thoughts. He sat down on the family’s front porch steps and made a phone call.

To Williams, the coach who recruited him to UNC in the first place.

He walked around the block on the phone, and then came back to the family living room. “Whatever they talked about, he didn’t share,” Venessa said, “but it seemed to settle him, for sure.”

Davis didn’t make up his mind right then, but a few days later, Davis came downstairs from his bedroom and announced he’d made his decision.

Davis kept his decision close to the vest. He told his parents, obviously. Hubert Davis. But he didn’t even text his teammates.

“I wanted,” he said, flashing a toothy grin, “to keep people on their toes a little bit.”

So on the night of April 30, Davis set a timer on his phone for 3 a.m. and went to sleep. When the alarm went off, he woke up and posted a highlight video to Instagram with a simple two-word caption: “I’m back.” And then … Davis put his phone on “Do Not Disturb” and went back to bed.

The ultimate mic drop, letting the college basketball world stir while he slept.
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brevity said:
Wake Forest is 5-1, with a neutral court victory over Michigan (KenPom #25) and a road loss to Xavier (#43). How are they on the bottom?
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JasonEvans said:
The 3 teams I highlighted were Wake, Syracuse, and GT. As Syracuse proves, winning games does not mean you are playing well. Given the level of the opposition, Syracuse appears to be near the bottom of the ACC.

Wake began the year #44 in KenPom with many saying Ken was underrating them. They are currently #84.
Click to expand...

I didn't look at Wake's 4 home wins, but now that I have, I still don't know why they would drop 40 places.

15-point win over #363 Coppin State
16-point win over #256 North Carolina A&T
5-point win over #328 USC Upstate
13-point win over #279 Western Carolina

The Upstate win is only truly underwhelming win there. Maybe they needed to beat Coppin State by 30 instead of 15? I don't know. Did Virginia get penalized for only beating Coppin State by 17?

JasonEvans said:
Brendan Marks, always an excellent writer, has a nice piece on RJ Davis' decision to return to UNC for his Covid bonus year.
Click to expand...

I can't read the article -- paywall -- but I don't remember any drama about this. Did DBR even discuss the possibility that RJ Davis would do anything but play Year 5 for UNC? Unlike Arizona's Caleb Love, who had one foot out the door with NBA Draft considerations, Davis was not a serious threat to go pro, and any NIL-related reasons to transfer away from Chapel Hill were not publicized. (I don't even think we blamed Davis for Seth Trimble entering the portal before ultimately withdrawing.)

I know I said something about a mutual détente if both Roach and Davis returned, but Roach transferred and Davis stayed, so Duke fans can continue to mock the old 5-year guy, while Carolina fans have no such ammunition.
 
Interesting that Davis the player apparently went to Williams and not Davis the coach with his dilemma.

I'd like to think Coach K is not as directly involved with the players although, in fairness, I don't think any Duke players remain that were coached by Coach K.
 
JasonEvans said:
I recorded prior to VT's absolutely stinker last night and they were projected to be pretty bad anyway. They started the year as KenPom's #98 team and entered last night as the #111. They did not make my list of the 3 most disappointing so far.

If we had recorded today, it would probably be a different story.

Episode will drop this afternoon.
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I look forward to it! Hard to prognosticate with so little data and thus it will be fun to kick around.
 
brevity said:
I didn't look at Wake's 4 home wins, but now that I have, I still don't know why they would drop 40 places.

15-point win over #363 Coppin State
16-point win over #256 North Carolina A&T
5-point win over #328 USC Upstate
13-point win over #279 Western Carolina

The Upstate win is only truly underwhelming win there. Maybe they needed to beat Coppin State by 30 instead of 15? I don't know. Did Virginia get penalized for only beating Coppin State by 17?
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Bart Torvik's real game numbers (no preseason bias included) has them as the #147 team in the land. That's bad.

If it was one close game against a team in the bottom 100, that would be easy to toss aside as an aberration. But this is 4 games where a top 40 team really should win by 25, 30, 35+ points and Wake has not been doing that.
 
PackMan97 said:
Don't look know...NC State is one of the last 63 undefeated teams in the country!
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Absolutely true and I will be very impressed after they sweep Purdue, Texas and Kandas over the few weeks. Their early schedule including both Bill and Mary this week are great preparation for the onslaught.😎
 
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