MBB Nerd Polls 2024-25

I sorted through the KenPom projected records to see what the predictions for the ACC race would be. It's not that pretty for the conference as a whole.

The teams getting the double bye, in order, are predicted to be Duke, UNC, Clemson, and Pitt. I would also say that those teams would likely be in the NCAAs, with Wake, State, and Miami on the bubble (all three projected to be 11-9 in conference, with KenPom rankings ranging from 44 to 55).

I still have suspicions that seeing UVA in preseason practices weighed on Tony Bennett's mind as he made his decision -- KenPom predicts they would tie for 12th place, at 9-11 in conference. Or it could just be that he waited until there were 5 seconds left on the shot clock before doing anything.


BTW, KenPom would predict the line on the Duke / Arizona State game would favor Duke by 18 or 19 points.
 
dlmzzz said:
I sorted through the KenPom projected records to see what the predictions for the ACC race would be. It's not that pretty for the conference as a whole.

The teams getting the double bye, in order, are predicted to be Duke, UNC, Clemson, and Pitt. I would also say that those teams would likely be in the NCAAs, with Wake, State, and Miami on the bubble (all three projected to be 11-9 in conference, with KenPom rankings ranging from 44 to 55).

I still have suspicions that seeing UVA in preseason practices weighed on Tony Bennett's mind as he made his decision -- KenPom predicts they would tie for 12th place, at 9-11 in conference. Or it could just be that he waited until there were 5 seconds left on the shot clock before doing anything.


BTW, KenPom would predict the line on the Duke / Arizona State game would favor Duke by 18 or 19 points.
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I mean the preseason numbers are backed by data, but have such huge error margins....especially since I don't think anybody has any idea how things will play out in the transferapalooza.

For the ACC it comes down to what it always has: Win the big OOC games, avoid bad OOC losses. and pickup a big win or two in conference....again avoiding the bad losses.
 
MChambers said:
Ken Pomeroy has an interesting but dense blog about his preseason ratings. Among other points, team continuity is continuing to drop with the new transfer rules and NIL and team consistency season to season has dropped, too. He rates Duke #2 and notes that that rating is outside the range of AP voters. https://kenpom.substack.com/p/some-...ect=true&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
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the point about AP voter herding at the end was the most interesting bit, imo. It's not a claim that his numbers are ostensibly better than others....but that the human voting is far too consistent relative to the expected error bars. Pretty much the voters don't think for themselves.
 
There was a short discussion in the Army postgame thread about the impact on Duke's NET rating of blowing out Army by 40+ points vs 20 points. I couldn't find a definitive statement from the NCAA, but I did come across a guy who seems to have spent considerable effort in attempting to deconstruct the NET ratings.

He claims that the NCAA does NOT cap margin of victory in calculating a team's adjusted efficiency margin. He also claims that about 80%* of a team's NET rating is based on its adjusted efficiency margin.

If this is true, then a basket (or defensive stop) in garbage time vs Army is worth the same as a similar possession in crunch time of a close game against a top 10 team. This would reward teams (and conferences of teams) for running up the score as much as possible against cupcakes. For example, a 42 point win at home vs Army could impress the NET more than a 20 point win on a neutral court vs Kentucky.

That seems ... flawed.



*The other 20% of the NET is based on "Team Value Index" which only considers wins/losses, the quality of opponent, and game location.
 
House P said:
There was a short discussion in the Army postgame thread about the impact on Duke's NET rating of blowing out Army by 40+ points vs 20 points. I couldn't find a definitive statement from the NCAA, but I did come across a guy who seems to have spent considerable effort in attempting to deconstruct the NET ratings.

He claims that the NCAA does NOT cap margin of victory in calculating a team's adjusted efficiency margin. He also claims that about 80%* of a team's NET rating is based on its adjusted efficiency margin.

If this is true, then a basket (or defensive stop) in garbage time vs Army is worth the same as a similar possession in crunch time of a close game against a top 10 team. This would reward teams (and conferences of teams) for running up the score as much as possible against cupcakes. For example, a 42 point win at home vs Army could impress the NET more than a 20 point win on a neutral court vs Kentucky.

That seems ... flawed.



*The other 20% of the NET is based on "Team Value Index" which only considers wins/losses, the quality of opponent, and game location.
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You can tell that blowouts swing the NET rating of teams. Team A has a big win over a Q3 or Q4 team and jumps 5-7 spots in NET rating the next day. Meanwhile, Team B has a close win in a Q2 or even Q1 game and doesn't move or even drops if the margin was lower than what the analytics sites predicted. The NET loves a blowout.
 
DavidBenAkiva said:
You can tell that blowouts swing the NET rating of teams. Team A has a big win over a Q3 or Q4 team and jumps 5-7 spots in NET rating the next day. Meanwhile, Team B has a close win in a Q2 or even Q1 game and doesn't move or even drops if the margin was lower than what the analytics sites predicted. The NET loves a blowout.
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it's early season. the NET doesn't use preseason data, so it's extremely volatile, and "Q" doesn't mean anything at this point. Since everyone starts on an even plane, a blowout win is better than a close win. Once those blown-out teams fall down the NET ratings, the impact of those blowouts will be tempered.

tl;dr: By the end of the year, those blowout results will mean little.
 
uh_no said:
it's early season. the NET doesn't use preseason data, so it's extremely volatile, and "Q" doesn't mean anything at this point. Since everyone starts on an even plane, a blowout win is better than a close win. Once those blown-out teams fall down the NET ratings, the impact of those blowouts will be tempered.

tl;dr: By the end of the year, those blowout results will mean little.
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I was discussing NET from previous years. The blowouts do move the needle.
 
So one of the nerd sites I follow (www.parsedsports.com) has a live mock bracket, and has us winning it all, playing Kentucky again in the final four and beating Purdue in the Final game.

FWIW, we are ranked # 4 right now and Kansas is # 10, and it has Duke winning tonight by 3.

Go Duke!

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Somehow, Duke is now number 1 in Torvik. Obviously, this is still with a fair amount of preseason weight, I'm sure. And it doesn't hurt that the defense has been crazy good.
 
robed deity said:
Somehow, Duke is now number 1 in Torvik. Obviously, this is still with a fair amount of preseason weight, I'm sure. And it doesn't hurt that the defense has been crazy good.
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#3 if you discount preseason...which is still pretty goood...and mostly on the stellar defensive play.
 
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