MBB: Duke vs. Virginia (Monday 2/17, 8pm ET, ESPN) Pregame and In-Game Thread

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The #3 Blue Devils put on quite a show against Stanford on Saturday, and now they take their show on the road, with no games in Cameron for almost two weeks. The three-game stretch starts immediately, as the team must prepare for a game in John Paul Jones Arena against the Virginia Cavaliers this Monday night on ESPN (streaming link, listen, live stats). For the second time this season, we have a Duke basketball doubleheader: tune in to ESPN early and watch the 13th-ranked Duke women take on the 2nd-ranked Notre Dame Fighting Irish in South Bend. The games are scheduled for 6pm and 8pm ET.

Back in September, for the MBB 2024-25 Schedule thread, I looked at every ACC schedule to see how many times each team in the conference was given a pair of consecutive games on Saturday and Monday. The results:

3 Duke
2 UNC, Virginia
1 Boston College, Clemson, Florida State, NC State, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Wake Forest
0 California, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Miami, SMU, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech

Here are the three occasions when Duke was given a quick turnaround:

01/25 at Wake Forest 4:30pm, 01/27 vs NC State 8:30pm
02/15 vs Stanford 4pm, 02/17 at Virginia 8pm
03/01 vs Florida State 7pm, 03/03 vs Wake Forest 7pm

Remember that Tony Bennett was still UVA's head coach when the schedule was made, so this used to be much more challenging/unfair. On the outset, it still is: the Blue Devils have about 50 hours from the end of the Stanford game to switch gears and travel to a road game tipping off in Charlottesville. For their part, the home team Cavaliers have an additional 2 hours, having played Virginia Tech in Blacksburg in a Saturday 2pm game.

And for the fourth and final time this regular season, a recently departed transfer faces Duke as an opponent: TJ Power is navigating his sophomore season with the Cavs. (Duke has already beaten Jaden Schutt and Virginia Tech, lost to Christian Reeves and Clemson, and defeated Jaylen Blakes and Stanford.)


I should have a game preview available later today. Until then, use this thread to discuss Duke-Virginia.
 
Is an additional 2 hours for UVa to prep the equivalent of 6 hours for any other team to prep? Still not sure how made-up announcer math works post-Bennett.

UVA is not good, but they have shown some signs of life lately. Might be a dead cat bounce but it’s an ACC road game, can’t be overlooked.
 
I don’t mind Saturday/Monday turnaround games if travel is not involved. I think that prepares us for the NCAA tournament schedule. But it seems unfair if travel for either game is involved.

I remember 2 years ago, we had a very tough game with UNC on Saturday night, and had to travel to Miami on Sunday to face a good, ranked Hurricane team on Monday night. After an emotional win over UNC, we got blown out by Miami.

This is another factor that contributes to the unbalanced schedules, imo. I think if one team is going to have more Saturday/Monday turnarounds than others, the ACC should make every effort to only schedule them if both games are at home.

But hey, at least this year, Wake was only a bus ride away. Virginia is a little farther, but still not too bad.
 
brevity said:
The #3 Blue Devils put on quite a show against Stanford on Saturday, and now they take their show on the road, with no games in Cameron for almost two weeks. The three-game stretch starts immediately, as the team must prepare for a game in John Paul Jones Arena against the Virginia Cavaliers this Monday night on ESPN (streaming link, listen, live stats). For the second time this season, we have a Duke basketball doubleheader: tune in to ESPN early and watch the 13th-ranked Duke women take on the 2nd-ranked Notre Dame Fighting Irish in South Bend. The games are scheduled for 6pm and 8pm ET.

Back in September, for the MBB 2024-25 Schedule thread, I looked at every ACC schedule to see how many times each team in the conference was given a pair of consecutive games on Saturday and Monday. The results:

3 Duke
2 UNC, Virginia
1 Boston College, Clemson, Florida State, NC State, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Wake Forest
0 California, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Miami, SMU, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech

Here are the three occasions when Duke was given a quick turnaround:

01/25 at Wake Forest 4:30pm, 01/27 vs NC State 8:30pm
02/15 vs Stanford 4pm, 02/17 at Virginia 8pm
03/01 vs Florida State 7pm, 03/03 vs Wake Forest 7pm

Remember that Tony Bennett was still UVA's head coach when the schedule was made, so this used to be much more challenging/unfair. On the outset, it still is: the Blue Devils have about 50 hours from the end of the Stanford game to switch gears and travel to a road game tipping off in Charlottesville. For their part, the home team Cavaliers have an additional 2 hours, having played Virginia Tech in Blacksburg in a Saturday 2pm game.

And for the fourth and final time this regular season, a recently departed transfer faces Duke as an opponent: TJ Power is navigating his sophomore season with the Cavs. (Duke has already beaten Jaden Schutt and Virginia Tech, lost to Christian Reeves and Clemson, and defeated Jaylen Blakes and Stanford.)


I should have a game preview available later today. Until then, use this thread to discuss Duke-Virginia.
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Despite the short turnaround time, we can count on @brevity for excellent game previews!
 
SavDukeGrad said:
I don’t mind Saturday/Monday turnaround games if travel is not involved. I think that prepares us for the NCAA tournament schedule. But it seems unfair if travel for either game is involved.
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I'll give you another example. I would strongly support the CA/Stanford road trip next year to be Sat/Mon, but I don't think they will be good enough to warrant a Mon game outside ACCN.
 
brevity said:
I should have a game preview available later today...
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For the record, TJ Power committed to Duke in September 2022, more than a year after Coach K announced his retirement, and months after completing his farewell tour. So he wasn't exactly surprised by the coaching succession, and was part of Jon Scheyer's second season. That's not the case at Virginia; like his teammates there, he likely was blindsided when Tony Bennett decided to step down in October, a couple of weeks before the season began.

Interim head coach Ron Sanchez, who was in charge at Charlotte for 5 years before returning to UVA to assist Coach Bennett in 2023, provides some level of program continuity, but his debut season has not been great. The Cavaliers are 13-12 overall, with a 6-8 record in the ACC. They are currently enjoying a bit of an upswing, having won 3 straight games and 5 of their last 7, including a Saturday afternoon win at Virginia Tech (73-70: recap, box score, highlights, full replay).


Here's a breakdown of Virginia's roster.

PROBABLE STARTERS

6-4 junior guard Isaac McKneely #11 (13.7 pts, 2.8 reb, 3.0 ast)
6-6 junior guard Andrew Rohde #4 (8.9 pts, 2.7 reb, 4.4 ast, 1.0 stl)
6-1 sophomore guard Dai Dai Ames #7 (7.8 pts, 1.4 reb, 2.0 ast)
6-10 freshman forward Jacob Cofie #5 (7.4 pts, 5.0 reb, 1.1 ast, 1.0 stl)
6-11 sophomore forward Blake Buchanan #0 (5.8 pts, 5.7 reb, 1.3 ast, 1.2 blk)

TOP RESERVES

6-8 junior forward Elijah Saunders #2 (11.1 pts, 5.4 reb, 0.8 ast)
6-5 senior guard Taine Murray #10 (4.5 pts, 1.6 reb, 1.8 ast)
6-5 freshman guard Ishan Sharma #9 (3.8 pts, 1.5 reb, 1.0 ast)
6-10 redshirt freshman post Anthony Robinson #21 (3.4 pts, 2.1 reb, 0.1 ast)
6-9 sophomore forward TJ Power #23 (1.5 pts, 1.2 reb, 0.7 ast)

BENCH PLAYERS

6-4 redshirt freshman guard Desmond Roberts #13 (0.8 pts, 0.6 reb, 0.0 ast)
6-2 senior guard Bryce Walker #8 (0.0 pts, 0.0 reb, 0.3 ast)
6-2 junior guard Eli Bennett #25 (0.0 pts, 0.0 reb, 0.0 ast, 1.0 stl)
6-2 junior guard Markus Rouse #42 (0.0 pts, 0.0 reb, 0.0 ast)

INJURED/OTHER

6-4 redshirt freshman guard Christian Bliss #30 -- foot injury; player decision to sit out (link)
6-4 sophomore guard Elijah Gertrude #12 -- knee injury; redshirting (link)
6-9 sophomore forward Carter Lang #35 -- foot injury; redshirting (link)

Isaac McKneely makes 41.7 percent of his threes, averaging more than 7 attempts per game. Some of his teammates -- Dai Dai Ames, Taine Murray, Andrew Rohde, Elijah Saunders, and Ishan Sharma -- also shoot well from outside, but at lower volumes. The team is 30th nationally in 3-point shooting percentage.

Coach Sanchez was asked about TJ Power before the season started, during Virginia's Media Day press conference.


"I want TJ to be himself. Yes, he was a high-level recruit out of high school, transferred here for a reason. He wasn't a heavy minute guy, high contributor at his previous institution, so TJ is still learning some things that are required at this level. He's progressing really well. I'm excited that he's here. He's got great size, he can shoot the ball, he's scrappy, he's got a great voice within the group. So I do think that he's going to contribute... He's not a postup player -- at 6-8, 6-9, he's more of a shooter -- so for him to contribute, he's going to have to shoot the ball well, share the ball. He's got a great feel for the game. He passes the ball well, so he can make plays for himself, but he could also share the ball and make others better."

TJ Power is not among the team's 3-point threats, at least so far. He's hit only 6 of 32 threes (18.8 percent). His decline this season has been steady and fairly pronounced: after starting the first 5 games of the season and averaging over 18 minutes per game, he's moved down the rotation, now averaging only 7 minutes in ACC contests.

Even under changed leadership, some of UVA's stats and reputation are the same: they are slow and do not score many points, on the fastbreak or otherwise. Feel free to compare the two teams below; most team statistics are derived from Sports Reference.

Bart Torvik is predicting Duke to emerge victorious, 71-58.

TABLE 1

CategoryVirginia (13-12, 6-8 ACC)Duke (22-3, 14-1 ACC)
Points Scored64.6 (353rd nationally)81.0 (35th)
Points Allowed64.9 (24th)60.8 (6th)
Scoring Margin (NCAA.com)-0.3 (239th)+20.2 (1st)
Bench Points (NCAA.com)17.6 (269th)19.4 (221st)
Total Rebounds30.7 (351st)38.4 (45th)
--- Offensive Rebounds7.2 (358th)10.9 (160th)
--- Defensive Rebounds23.5 (289th)27.5 (30th)
Assists15.4 (75th)16.7 (28th)
Assist/Turnover Ratio (NCAA.com)1.50 (32nd)1.71 (5th)
Steals5.2 (330th)7.0 (161st)
Blocks3.6 (129th)3.5 (141st)
Turnovers10.3 (39th fewest)9.8 (21st fewest)
Personal Fouls15.0 (37th fewest)15.9 (100th fewest)
Field Goal Percentage44.8% (187th)48.5% (27th)
2-Point FG Percentage50.3% (244th)57.6% (19th)
3-Point FG Percentage37.7% (30th)37.8% (25th)
Free Throw Percentage74.6% (85th)77.4% (26th)

TABLE 2

CategoryVirginia (13-12, 6-8 ACC)Duke (22-3, 14-1 ACC)
NET Ranking (NCAA.com)#104 (NET Summary)#2 (NET Summary)
--- Strength of Schedule65th58th
--- Quad 11-65-3
--- Quad 21-44-0
--- Quad 34-27-0
--- Quad 47-06-0
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy)#103#2
--- Offensive Efficiency111th3rd
--- Defensive Efficiency117th4th
--- Tempo362nd283rd
Fastbreak Points (NCAA.com)3.8 (354th)11.2 (113th)
T-Rank (Bart Torvik)#99 (T-Page)#3 (T-Page)
--- Experience1.406 (339th)0.979 (361st)
--- Talent73.290 (10th)81.097 (3rd)

NET quadrants explained:

The quality of wins and losses will be organized based on game location and the opponent's NET ranking.

Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353
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Ken Pomeroy defines efficiency as an extrapolated measure of points scored (offensive) or allowed (defensive) per 100 possessions against an average opponent. The more points you score and the fewer points you allow, the better. Tempo refers to the number of possessions per 40 minutes against an average tempo: the higher the rank, the faster the tempo. Faster isn't necessarily better; Houston is among the 5 slowest teams, and is KenPom #3.
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Bart Torvik offers some clarification on Experience and Talent in the comments here. Experience "is based on class year (3 for senior, 0 for freshman) with caveat that it actually counts how many years a guy has played 10 games in, so if a guy is listed as a soph even though he's played two full years already, he'll count as a junior." Talent "is based on composite recruiting ranks weighted for minutes played."
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Regarding the Saturday-Monday turnaround, I subscribe to "what does not kill you only makes you stronger". UVA is down down way down this year. Recovering from Bennett's late resignation less than 3 weeks prior to the first game was a tough pill to swallow for the team. It's totally unsurprising that they have been mediocre. And Duke should roll over them, despite the quick turnaround.

That being said, road wins are tougher than you think. It would make Virginia's season to beat the Devils. Lose to GaTech or ND this year? Oh well, it's a down year. But beat Duke? That would dominate their highlight film at the banquet at season's end. Duke needs to stay frosty, come out strong (which they have been doing so much better than earlier this season), and gut them from the start. They can't just expect to show up with "DUKE" on their jerseys and expect the Cavs to roll over. Be hungry and feast quickly. They did it so well Saturday vs. Stanford. Now do it again. That's the winning ticket to beat teams like UVA this year.

9F
 
Stubhub is showing a get in price of just $38. Is that the lowest for any Duke game this year? I just checked, and even the Miami game has slightly higher prices.

Virginia looks a lot like a Tony Bennett team, just with less teeth. They still the run blocker/mover offense using a lot of off-ball screens. They are going to hedge ball screens and double in the post. They are going to slow things down and try to muck it up.

There is one clear recipe for an upset. Virginia is a really good 3-point shooting team, and we have had a tendency not to guard the 3 at times. Most notably, in the last Sat/Mon turnaround against State. This Duke team normally brings the effort and focus, but when we do have letdowns, it usually manifests itself in weak close outs. That can't happen tomorrow.

The good news is that the gameplan should be pretty simple. We typically counter the blocker/mover by switching those off-ball screens. I imagine we will try to switch 1-5 against them, as their bigs aren't great interior scorers. Take away their 3s, and they don't have all that much on offense.

Defensively, this is the worst UVA team since the Dave Leitao era. Their bigs do block a decent amount of shots, but they are less athletic on the perimeter than they have been in a long time. We will have to be patient against the packline, but we should get looks.
 
Dr. Maturin said:
Stubhub is showing a get in price of just $38. Is that the lowest for any Duke game this year? I just checked, and even the Miami game has slightly higher prices.

Virginia looks a lot like a Tony Bennett team, just with less teeth. They still the run blocker/mover offense using a lot of off-ball screens. They are going to hedge ball screens and double in the post. They are going to slow things down and try to muck it up.

There is one clear recipe for an upset. Virginia is a really good 3-point shooting team, and we have had a tendency not to guard the 3 at times. Most notably, in the last Sat/Mon turnaround against State. This Duke team normally brings the effort and focus, but when we do have letdowns, it usually manifests itself in weak close outs. That can't happen tomorrow.

The good news is that the gameplan should be pretty simple. We typically counter the blocker/mover by switching those off-ball screens. I imagine we will try to switch 1-5 against them, as their bigs aren't great interior scorers. Take away their 3s, and they don't have all that much on offense.

Defensively, this is the worst UVA team since the Dave Leitao era. Their bigs do block a decent amount of shots, but they are less athletic on the perimeter than they have been in a long time. We will have to be patient against the packline, but we should get looks.
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Good analysis. Duke did a good job of preventing 3s against Clemson, but then got seriously burned on the 2s. Virginia isn't strong inside, so I hope we can take away both the 3s and the 2s.

On offense, if Duke is patient and gets the ball in the paint, there will be some good looks from outside.
 
Virginia is improving and the crowd will be intense, but a National Championship caliber team should win comfortably tonight.
 
MChambers said:
Good analysis. Duke did a good job of preventing 3s against Clemson, but then got seriously burned on the 2s. Virginia isn't strong inside, so I hope we can take away both the 3s and the 2s.
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I think our 3 point defense is the key tactical piece going forward. We're giving up more 3 point attempts than any Duke team in history, which is a bit concerning. However, we're #1 in the entire country in 2-point defense, holding teams to 42%. So, the juice is worth the squeeze most of the time.

My question is: can we tweak our defense to allow fewer 3s without hurting our interior defense? The Clemson game was not a good data point. We did limit their looks from 3, but they beat us up inside. It could be that we just need to play to our strengths and live with a few more 3s. Our next two opponents both shoot a lot of 3s, so it should give us plenty to think about.
 
brevity said:
The #3 Blue Devils put on quite a show against Stanford on Saturday, and now they take their show on the road, with no games in Cameron for almost two weeks. The three-game stretch starts immediately, as the team must prepare for a game in John Paul Jones Arena against the Virginia Cavaliers this Monday night on ESPN (streaming link, listen, live stats). For the second time this season, we have a Duke basketball doubleheader: tune in to ESPN early and watch the 13th-ranked Duke women take on the 2nd-ranked Notre Dame Fighting Irish in South Bend. The games are scheduled for 6pm and 8pm ET.
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mbbwbb20250217.jpg
(source, source)

Duke links: preview, PDF game notes
UVA links: preview, PDF game notes

Once again, Dave O'Brien (Syracuse grad; bio) and Cory Alexander (Virginia basketball; bio) will announce the game on ESPN.

I know you're all aching for some extra Cory Alexander content -- maybe next time -- but I'll offer this highlight video instead, from when #4 Duke visited #2 Virginia 10 years ago, during the landmark 2014-2015 season. The Blue Devils, down by 5 with just under three minutes to go, finished the game on an 11-0 run. And we get a glimpse of the legend that would become Tyus Stones.

 
wgl1228 said:
Virginia is improving and the crowd will be intense, but a National Championship caliber team should win comfortably tonight.
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Torvik only puts this game at -13, and they've been unusually efficient on offense against the weak teams they've played lately. I think the talent differential is significant enough for me that I fully agree with you, but Duke can't play stupid. Having a few Duke fans join me lining the upper rim wouldn't hurt. :) February Snowmageddon isn't until Wednesday.
 
may be too much to expect two amazing shooting nights in a row, we may have to grind this one out, but I like our defense...
 
Dr. Maturin said:
I think our 3 point defense is the key tactical piece going forward. We're giving up more 3 point attempts than any Duke team in history, which is a bit concerning. However, we're #1 in the entire country in 2-point defense, holding teams to 42%. So, the juice is worth the squeeze most of the time.

My question is: can we tweak our defense to allow fewer 3s without hurting our interior defense? The Clemson game was not a good data point. We did limit their looks from 3, but they beat us up inside. It could be that we just need to play to our strengths and live with a few more 3s. Our next two opponents both shoot a lot of 3s, so it should give us plenty to think about.
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Interestingly, a lot of the good teams (according to T-rank) give up as many or more threes than Duke. Maybe it is just a sign of having a good defense, so that you force the other team to take a lot of threes, whether or not they are good shots?
 
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