MBB: Duke vs. Syracuse (Wednesday 2/5, 7pm ET, ESPN2) Pregame and In-Game Thread

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Now that the 2nd-ranked Blue Devils have successfully navigated the rivalry experience, they travel north to face the Syracuse Orange in the JMA Wireless Dome for a Wednesday evening game on ESPN2 (streaming link, listen, live stats). Duke's mascot may as well have worn a headband on Saturday that said "Syracuse Warmup", because Maliq Brown shook off the rust against UNC and is now ready to return to the state of New York and take on his former team.

Second-year head coach Adrian "Red" Autry, like his longtime predecessor Jim Boeheim, is a former Syracuse player and assistant coach, but he might get pushed out of the job a lot sooner. Coach Autry probably could have used Maliq Brown this season, but that alone would not have solved this team's problems. After a promising 20-12 record last year, the current squad has already matched the number of losses with only half the number of wins. In terms of NET, they have yet to collect a victory against a Quad 1 opponent, but they did just get their first Quad 2 win on Saturday, at California (75-66: recap, box score, highlights).


Message board fans of the Orange -- at least the more practical among them -- see this team as having issues with the construction of its roster. Coach Autry may or may not be the right person in charge, but it's hard to tell because the returners, transfers, and freshmen don't fit together in a unified whole, and a more established coach could be similarly frustrated. Some of these fans are ready to write off this season and look forward to the next one, which brings in 4 promising freshmen, headlined by top 50 recruits Sadiq White and Kiyan Anthony, and the hope that the latter's father Carmelo Anthony becomes more actively involved in some capacity.

PROBABLE STARTERS

6-4 junior guard JJ Starling #2 (17.9 pts, 3.8 reb, 2.6 ast)
6-11 grad center Eddie Lampkin #44 (10.1 pts, 9.0 reb, 2.4 ast)
6-7 senior forward Jyáre Davis #13 (8.2 pts, 5.4 reb, 1.3 ast)
6-5 senior guard Lucas Taylor #3 (6.2 pts, 2.4 reb, 0.7 ast)
6-4 freshman guard Elijah Moore #8 (5.6 pts, 1.5 reb, 0.9 ast)

TOP RESERVES

6-7 junior forward Chris Bell #4 (9.4 pts, 1.9 reb, 0.5 ast)
6-0 senior guard Jaquan Carlos #5 (6.4 pts, 2.1 reb, 3.7 ast)
6-2 redshirt junior guard Kyle Cuffe Jr #0 (5.4 pts, 1.2 reb, 0.5 ast)
6-8 freshman forward Petar Majstorovic #6 (3.0 pts, 3.5 reb, 0.7 ast)

BENCH PLAYERS

7-4 senior center Naheem McLeod #10 (0.9 pts, 0.7 reb, 0.3 ast)
6-6 redshirt sophomore guard Chance Westry #11 (0.0 pts, 0.0 reb, 0.3 ast)
6-0 senior guard Anthony Clayton #12
6-1 senior guard Nate Fleisher #51
6-2 sophomore guard Chris Gatty #34
6-0 freshman guard Noah Lobdell #24
6-5 grad forward Chaz Owens #30

INJURED/OTHER

6-9 freshman forward Donnie Freeman #1 (13.4 pts, 7.9 reb, 1.4 ast) -- right foot injury, return unknown

As I see it, one of the many reasons that the ACC's media narrative is down this season is that there are no breakout freshmen who don't play for Duke or UNC. Last season it wasn't just about Jared McCain and Elliot Cadeau; it helped to see one-and-done campaigns from Pittsburgh's Bub Carrington and Miami's Kyshawn George, as well as strong debuts from Notre Dame's Markus Burton, Georgia Tech's Baye Ndongo, and Pitt's Jaland Lowe. This year it's not like that. Yes, there's Cooper Flagg and company at Duke, and Ian Jackson and Drake Powell at UNC, but beyond that? There's Jeremiah Wilkinson at Cal, but his team is underperforming -- another case of portal pieces that don't fit together -- and he's based out of the West Coast. Syracuse's Donnie Freeman and Miami's Jalil Bethea, both top 10 recruits in the 2024 class, aren't making much of a national impression. And now Freeman has missed the last 8 games with a lower right leg injury, pictured wearing a boot on his right foot.

You may remember Jaquan Carlos, who played for Hofstra last season, and had a pretty good game against Duke in Cameron, getting 10 points, 3 rebounds, and 9 assists in 37 minutes of play. He was taken out of the starting lineup 8 games ago -- he and Chris Bell's move to the bench coincided with Freeman's injury -- but Carlos still averages about 21 minutes per game in conference play, and leads the team in assists and steals.

Naheem McLeod, all 7-4 of him, might be the only ACC player who looks down on Khaman Maluach. After playing a total of 15 minutes in 6 games this season, he saw 9 minutes of action in Berkeley. According to Syracuse's SB Nation site: "McLeod, who has played sparingly in just 3.6 minutes per game this season, stepped up to anchor the 2-3 zone. He appeared with a bench contingent of Jaquan Carlos, Kyle Cuffe, Chris Bell and Petar Majstorovic. He was included as part of Autry’s plan to go 2-3 zone against Cal, which is second to last in the conference in three point shooting percentage (31.3%)."

Coach Autry has generally steered clear of Jim Boeheim's zone defense, opting for a man-to-man, but he may choose to bring it back now that it's helped bring a small taste of success. Duke is a better outside shooting team than California; they're hitting 36.8 percent of their threes this season. For more team stats -- mostly derived from Sports Reference -- check out the pair of tables below.

Bart Torvik projects a final score of Duke 80, Syracuse 63.

TABLE 1

CategorySyracuse (10-12, 4-7 ACC)Duke (19-2, 11-0 ACC)
Points Scored74.2 (192nd nationally)80.3 (49th)
Points Allowed77.0 (312th)60.0 (5th)
Scoring Margin (NCAA.com)-2.8 (286th)+20.3 (1st)
Bench Points (NCAA.com)25.4 (68th)19.9 (215th)
Total Rebounds37.8 (80th)39.3 (32nd)
--- Offensive Rebounds10.6 (196th)11.2 (147th)
--- Defensive Rebounds27.1 (42nd)28.0 (19th)
Assists13.2 (227th)17.0 (27th)
Assist/Turnover Ratio (NCAA.com)1.06 (239th)1.66 (10th)
Steals4.6 (357th)6.8 (201st)
Blocks2.6 (289th)3.7 (119th)
Turnovers12.5 (243rd fewest)10.2 (33rd fewest)
Personal Fouls16.0 (105th fewest)15.7 (82nd fewest)
Field Goal Percentage45.4% (153rd)47.7% (49th)
2-Point FG Percentage52.2% (171st)57.2% (26th)
3-Point FG Percentage31.9% (291st)36.8% (57th)
Free Throw Percentage69.5% (260th)77.0% (33rd)

TABLE 2

CategorySyracuse (10-12, 4-7 ACC)Duke (19-2, 11-0 ACC)
NET Ranking (NCAA.com)#132 (NET Summary)#2 (NET Summary)
--- Strength of Schedule56th47th
--- Quad 10-75-2
--- Quad 21-44-0
--- Quad 34-15-0
--- Quad 45-05-0
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy)#112#2
--- Offensive Efficiency125th5th
--- Defensive Efficiency139th3rd
--- Tempo89th271st
Fastbreak Points (NCAA.com)9.0 (229th)11.3 (119th)
T-Rank (Bart Torvik)#138 (T-Page)#3 (T-Page)
--- Experience2.064 (175th)0.984 (361st)
--- Talent62.609 (24th)81.335 (3rd)

NET quadrants explained:

The quality of wins and losses will be organized based on game location and the opponent's NET ranking.

Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353
Ken Pomeroy defines efficiency as an extrapolated measure of points scored (offensive) or allowed (defensive) per 100 possessions against an average opponent. The more points you score and the fewer points you allow, the better. Tempo refers to the number of possessions per 40 minutes against an average tempo: the higher the rank, the faster the tempo. Faster isn't necessarily better; Houston is among the 5 slowest teams, and is KenPom #3.
Bart Torvik offers some clarification on Experience and Talent in the comments here. Experience "is based on class year (3 for senior, 0 for freshman) with caveat that it actually counts how many years a guy has played 10 games in, so if a guy is listed as a soph even though he's played two full years already, he'll count as a junior." Talent "is based on composite recruiting ranks weighted for minutes played."
 
I didn't expect Brown to be back against the Heels. But he was and played well. I'm glad he can play against the Orange. I hope the fans there give him an nice ovation (probably not a rousing one, but a few clicks above a golf clap, though). And that he gets a double-double (where one of the stats is steals).

And that Duke wins, of course.

9F
 
For me, putting the game on ice early would be less for my viewing comfort and more about getting Coop and Kon down to about 30 minutes in a lower tier game like this. We will need them fully rested and ready to go likely longer against Clemson. It would also be of great benefit to find an alternate offense that doesn’t require Cooper Flagg to be the focal point.
 
I kind of wish this was a Tuesday game, since we have to turn around and play Clemson Saturday. It’s a long flight back from Syracuse (at least the game is at 7:00), and we will get home very late, probably early Thursday morning after the required media obligations.

We will leave on Friday afternoon for Clemson, so I wish we had one more day to prepare for what will most likely be our toughest game left. Having said all that, I hope our team can rise to the occasion, but it will help if we can limit the minutes of our starters on Wednesday.
 
Love to see that we are now Top 10 in Assist/Turnover ratio.
And Top 25 in % Assists/FGM at 60.8% (and increasing steadily), by far the highest percentage a Duke team has posted in the timeframe that KenPom has been tracking. There are surely some unique factors driving that with this year's team, but I would also suggest that it reflects a purposeful (and welcome IMHO) departure from the typical offensive approach of the late K era.
 
For me, putting the game on ice early would be less for my viewing comfort and more about getting Coop and Kon down to about 30 minutes in a lower tier game like this. We will need them fully rested and ready to go likely longer against Clemson. It would also be of great benefit to find an alternate offense that doesn’t require Cooper Flagg to be the focal point.
I don't think that Jon will alter the game plan and rotations. This time of year is to solidify the team's comfort and confidence with it. I don't see minute schemes being altered at Syracuse.
 
The Devils Den has video of Jon Scheyer's ACC media teleconference earlier today, featuring a question from DBR's @JasonEvans. No explicit discussion of Syracuse, but I'll quote the portion from the Syracuse.com reporter (starting around the 4:40 mark).


Mike Waters: "You just got Maliq Brown back this past weekend. What did you miss from him in those games while he was out?"

Coach Scheyer: "I think that first play that he came back -- it took him about two seconds to get a deflection and a steal, and it led to 3 points on the other end for Cooper [Flagg]. I think that right there sums it up, but his offensive feel, really, for us, has been a big plus. His passing, his screening, he's a very smart basketball player. I want to continue to get him to shoot the ball and be more aggressive offensively, but he just impacts us on both ends because of his feel, and obviously, I think his versatility on defense speaks for itself."

Would you like to see that play again? Duke MBB has a short clip.

 
The Devils Den has video of Jon Scheyer's ACC media teleconference earlier today, featuring a question from DBR's @JasonEvans. No explicit discussion of Syracuse, but I'll quote the portion from the Syracuse.com reporter (starting around the 4:40 mark).


Mike Waters: "You just got Maliq Brown back this past weekend. What did you miss from him in those games while he was out?"

Coach Scheyer: "I think that first play that he came back -- it took him about two seconds to get a deflection and a steal, and it led to 3 points on the other end for Cooper [Flagg]. I think that right there sums it up, but his offensive feel, really, for us, has been a big plus. His passing, his screening, he's a very smart basketball player. I want to continue to get him to shoot the ball and be more aggressive offensively, but he just impacts us on both ends because of his feel, and obviously, I think his versatility on defense speaks for itself."

Would you like to see that play again? Duke MBB has a short clip.



I love how these guys are so uplifting to each other. "He is back!"
 
Do you believe Kon is a better defender than Sion, Tyrese, or Khaman?
Haha. I thought it would be you who jumped first.

A better one on one defender in space? No. A better team defender who guards the gaps, cuts down angles, helps on the weak side? Maybe. There's usually a kernel of truth in season long metrics like this. Kon does always seem to be in the right spot on the floor.
 
Before the season started, who would have believed KK would be the 4th best defender in the ACC based on any metric? 😎🏝️ Ok, feel free to jump in and explain why this metric is misleading...

I agree that Kon is playing good defense, but I don't think this number is realistic. From looking at EvanMiya's player ratings over the years, they seem to suffer from a great deal of serial correlation (or whatever the correct term is). As Kedsy showed in a post here recently, Duke's transfers in have had much better DBPM numbers at Duke and Duke's transfers out have had much worse DBPM numbers at their new locations (except for Jaylen Blakes).
 
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