Well, you would actually add 6 not 3 moving from away to home so the number would be -13.5 from the SMU line. Neutral court would have been -10.5, @duke would be an additional -3 at home so -13.5.
MBB: Duke vs. Pittsburgh (Tuesday 1/7, 7pm ET, ESPN) Pregame and In-Game Thread
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SavDukeGrad
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Saw this article on ESPN. Not specifically about the Pitt game, but quotes Jon from the ACC media teleconference yesterday, and what it felt like to watch the SMU game from home.
www.espn.com
Duke's Scheyer: Watching from afar was bizarre
Duke coach Jon Scheyer said he's feeling better from an illness that kept him from coaching the Blue Devils' weekend win at SMU, adding that watching from afar was "a bizarre, bizarre experience."
Home court to neutral court is a 3-4 point swing. Neutral court to road is another 3-4 point swing. So road to home is a 6-8 point swing.
Torvik had us as about an 8 point favorite at SMU and as a 14 point favorite at home vs Pitt. That's a perfectly reasonable shift in spread as far as I can tell: about a 7-8 point swing in our favor due to venue, with a ~2 point shift in quality of opponent.
The betting lines aren't really out of line either. They may have slightly overrated SMU and slightly underrate Pitt, but it's within a point or so I'd say.
kako
Member
Regarding Hinson last year, I am probably in the minority here. I just think if you dish it out, you have to take it. Cameron serves heaps of it and can be merciless on opponents - coaches, players, mascots, etc. Anybody recall In-Hale, Ex-Hale? Or "Herman, did you send her flowers?" I love it (except the R-A-P-E cheer that went way too far). So if the opponent wins, I think an equal but opposite reaction can take place, it's just sports physics. And it's all part of the game. Do I wish players just shook hands and said good game? Maybe, but that would be boring. If they do react, does it make me want to beat them more? Maybe or maybe not (I just want the win regardless), though sure I assume the players should use it as motivation - revenge can be a strong factor. But do I think worse of the player that does it, or the act itself? Not really. I actually liked Hinson as a scorer (except against us). Too bad he was a one trick pony, he might have been drafted if he could do anything else but that.
We can say act with class. But the Crazies don't always do that. And on both sides, we are talking about college kids. Let them have their fun, it just means that they care and are showing it (though no court storming before the players exit, that has to end).
Now beat them, Duke.
9F
We can say act with class. But the Crazies don't always do that. And on both sides, we are talking about college kids. Let them have their fun, it just means that they care and are showing it (though no court storming before the players exit, that has to end).
Now beat them, Duke.
9F
I had a similar reaction to Hinson's postgame actions last year. While not condoning what he did, I feel strongly that it goes with the territory when you pride yourselves on creating a hostile environment for visiting teams. So no one should be surprised, or reflexively offended, if responses like Hinson's happen on occasion.
Yeah, I don't love it. But he didn't go into the stands, and he didn't hit anyone or threaten anyone. The guy had the game of his life on the road against a top team, whose fanbase loves to try to antagonize opposing players. He got the best of Duke and the fans, and he celebrated it. A big nothingburger to me. Frankly, I'm surprised it hasn't happened more.
DavidBenAkiva
Member
MChambers
Member
Speaking of health, hope the rest of the team avoided the intestinal illness that affected Jon and Tyrese. Guess we will know by 7.
GAME DAY!!!!!!
Pitt feels like, in the words of Gary Parrish, a computer-tricker. KenPom 22? When I watch them, I don't see it at all.
So what I'm interested in today...
-Per my initial point, Pitt doesn't feel like a top 20 offense to me. So, I am interested in whether or not our meat grinder defense will make them look as bad as we did to SMU's top 20 offense? Jaland Lowe is the real deal, he is really good, always has the ball, and is the proverbial head of the snake. So, if we take care of him, I can't see us struggling here. Will we see a better game from Maliq Brown as he works his way back from nagging injury?
-With Scheyer back in the saddle, what does the rotation look like? He played 10+ line-ups in the first half against VTech before he played line-ups for longer stretches in the second half. I presumed that to be part of a strategy to keep a 9 man rotation and to make sure all of those guys feel invested. I am interested to see how that continues.
-Cooper Flagg seems to be coming on, especially on offense. He has been really aggressive and decisive, doing much more attacking off the bounce. I think it's funny that two of the top college basketball outlets I pay attention to, "The Field of 68" and "CBS Eye on College Bsketball" both had segments after the SMU game saying, "Is Cooper Flagg getting enough attention for how good he is?" As CBS' Matt Norlander responded to Gary Parrish, "It's coming". I think if we keep waxing every ACC opponent in front of us and rise up as the SEC and Big 12 eat each other, that will prove to be true, as long as Cooper keeps performing on both ends, and I think he will, and I think he will tonight. I'll be interested to see if Cameron Corhen, who seems rugged, can slow him at all.
-While we have continued to shoot a lot of 3s, but it feels like we are taking better 3s as a result of better ball movement and more attacking the paint off the bounce. I am interested in whether or not that nice balance will continue.
-Was the Gillis/Foster show an anomaly? For Gillis, he looked the most comfortable on offense that he has all year. Anyone else do a double take when he made this cut and finish?
. As for Foster, as these boards, and elsewhere prove, he is currently some kind of poster boy for anxiety in the portal/NIL age. It is impossible to know whether a good or bad game will make everyone more or less nervous about...what? About the upside of the team? About his potentially leaving Duke? About the potential impact of tariffs on the US economy?
-Per MChambers' post, where are the reports that Tyrese has been sick?
Pitt feels like, in the words of Gary Parrish, a computer-tricker. KenPom 22? When I watch them, I don't see it at all.
So what I'm interested in today...
-Per my initial point, Pitt doesn't feel like a top 20 offense to me. So, I am interested in whether or not our meat grinder defense will make them look as bad as we did to SMU's top 20 offense? Jaland Lowe is the real deal, he is really good, always has the ball, and is the proverbial head of the snake. So, if we take care of him, I can't see us struggling here. Will we see a better game from Maliq Brown as he works his way back from nagging injury?
-With Scheyer back in the saddle, what does the rotation look like? He played 10+ line-ups in the first half against VTech before he played line-ups for longer stretches in the second half. I presumed that to be part of a strategy to keep a 9 man rotation and to make sure all of those guys feel invested. I am interested to see how that continues.
-Cooper Flagg seems to be coming on, especially on offense. He has been really aggressive and decisive, doing much more attacking off the bounce. I think it's funny that two of the top college basketball outlets I pay attention to, "The Field of 68" and "CBS Eye on College Bsketball" both had segments after the SMU game saying, "Is Cooper Flagg getting enough attention for how good he is?" As CBS' Matt Norlander responded to Gary Parrish, "It's coming". I think if we keep waxing every ACC opponent in front of us and rise up as the SEC and Big 12 eat each other, that will prove to be true, as long as Cooper keeps performing on both ends, and I think he will, and I think he will tonight. I'll be interested to see if Cameron Corhen, who seems rugged, can slow him at all.
-While we have continued to shoot a lot of 3s, but it feels like we are taking better 3s as a result of better ball movement and more attacking the paint off the bounce. I am interested in whether or not that nice balance will continue.
-Was the Gillis/Foster show an anomaly? For Gillis, he looked the most comfortable on offense that he has all year. Anyone else do a double take when he made this cut and finish?
-Per MChambers' post, where are the reports that Tyrese has been sick?
This is an important cause vs. effect question to be answered. The last three games we have shot well from three, and we put up three of our best offensive efficiency performances. The prior three games we shot the ball relatively poorly, and much gnashing of teeth resulted.
Are we doing something better on offense that leads to better three-point attempts, which leads to more makes? Or did we simply shoot the ball better because, well, there's some randomness to three-point shooting, and thus, the offensive efficiency spiked?
MChambers
Member
Scheyer said that Tyrese was not 100% against SMU. https://triblive.com/sports/acc-not...nch-after-missing-game-saturday-with-illness/
32 minutes, 14 pts, 4-7 from 3, 6 boards, 3 assists....maybe he was 98%?
Dr. Maturin
Member
Just my opinion here, but I'm not sure there's much there. I think we have generally taken good shots from 3 this year. Sometimes too many, but mostly good shots. I think we have to be careful trying to make sense out of 3 point shooting. Sometimes the shots go in and sometimes they don't.
I do think we have taken steps in getting better looks from 2 point range. 3 of our 4 best 2-point shooting games have been in the last 3 games. My eye test says we are running cleaner offense and starting to get a better idea of what works (e.g. Kon/Khaman PNR). Against VT, we took 24 shots at the rim and just 5 from midrange. Against SMU, it was 28 shots at the rim and 7 midrange. That kind of shot selection hopefully shows that our offense is getting better, and is more sustainable than highly-variable 3-point shooting.
This raises a question I wonder about… clearly the math has pushed the game towards taking more 3s. But the problem is 3s come with more volatility, meaning you will have some bad luck and lose badly occasionally. Is it better then to go with lower expected value 3s but at least you have less volatility and so don’t go cold in an important game?
FosterCoachK82
Member
With this and the muffled gunshot coming from inside Otto the Orange’s costume, it looks like one of The Onion’s writers (my dream job) is an ACC fan.
SkyBrickey
Member
The strategy that yields the most efficient offense and the best chance of winning is to have your good shooters take the open 3s and otherwise attack the rim.
If you don't take those high-percentage open 3s and instead force drives into the paint, then you won't maximize your chance of beating really good teams. And ultimately that's how this team will be judged. Were we able to beat the top teams in the country?
Another thought for you - there's less volatility on 30 3-pt attempts in a game than 15 3-pt attempts.
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The new, improved DBR Chat is open! Find it on the Chat menu option located on your computer on the menu bar (may have to scroll to the right if there's a > option showing), on the 3-line "hamburger" menu on your mobile device, or use the link below:
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Please keep chat issues in the chat thread and keep game posts in the game thread.
As always - please follow the DBR Posting Guidelines. Venting and destructively negative posts may lead to infractions being assessed during or after the game.
Let's Go Duke!
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