Horse Racing 2025

The Triple Crown Trail gets moving in earnest this weekend:

On Saturday there are 2 races with KYD points being awarded.

At Aqueduct is the Jerome:
[ url above; January 4, 2025; Aqueduct - Race 8; PPs ]
Studlydoright is the most accomplished, but there are several horses in the field coming off of maiden wins who can improve greatly. Georgia Magic is the most expensive colt in the bunch and had a nice first out. But there will be competitive overlays in this race.

At Oaklawn Park will be the Smarty Jones:
[ url above; January 4, 2025; Oaklawn Park - Race 9; PPs ]
Coal Battle is an off the pace horse who will have early speed provided by others; good shot. Kale's Angel put in a great effort moving from turf to dirt; if this form holds, he will hit the board and possibly win.

Not providing KYD points to the winner, but worth attention as a feeder race to the Holy Bull, is the Mucho Macho Man at Gulfstream Park:
[ url above; January 4, 2025; Gulfstream Park - Race 10; PPs ]
Naughty Rascal is likely to be the favorite, as he is experienced and has the better speed figures. Guns Loaded has a loaded pedigree, an $800k price tag, and can improve.

At Santa Anita there is an interesting race:
[ url above; January 4, 2025; Santa Anita - Race 5; PPs ]
It will be Barnes vs. Bullard from Baffert. A paradigm mentioned here would be to bet the lesser of the Baffert entries, which would be Barnes; he is a $3.2M yearling purchase who looked very good in his only time out. Bullard has another race under his belt and is undefeated.

For the females, there are a couple of races, only one with KY Oaks points:

On Sunday is the Santa Ynez:
[ url above; January 5, 2025; Santa Anita - Race 7; PPs ]
Look Forward appears to be the most accomplished. Practical Dream had an awful last race (throw out). There are 4 fillies in here that won in their only start; not sure what they are; depending on how they look and their odds might demand a bet.

No KY Oaks points for the Mockingbird at Oaklawn Park:
[ url above; January 4, 2025; Oaklawn Park - Race 7; PPs ]
Shisospicy has Flavian Prat and a couple of the top performances in the field.

Larry
DevilHorse
 
The Triple Crown Trail gets moving in earnest this weekend:

On Saturday there are 2 races with KYD points being awarded.

At Aqueduct is the Jerome:
[ url above; January 4, 2025; Aqueduct - Race 8; PPs ]
Studlydoright is the most accomplished, but there are several horses in the field coming off of maiden wins who can improve greatly. Georgia Magic is the most expensive colt in the bunch and had a nice first out. But there will be competitive overlays in this race.

At Oaklawn Park will be the Smarty Jones:
[ url above; January 4, 2025; Oaklawn Park - Race 9; PPs ]
Coal Battle is an off the pace horse who will have early speed provided by others; good shot. Kale's Angel put in a great effort moving from turf to dirt; if this form holds, he will hit the board and possibly win.

Not providing KYD points to the winner, but worth attention as a feeder race to the Holy Bull, is the Mucho Macho Man at Gulfstream Park:
[ url above; January 4, 2025; Gulfstream Park - Race 10; PPs ]
Naughty Rascal is likely to be the favorite, as he is experienced and has the better speed figures. Guns Loaded has a loaded pedigree, an $800k price tag, and can improve.

At Santa Anita there is an interesting race:
[ url above; January 4, 2025; Santa Anita - Race 5; PPs ]
It will be Barnes vs. Bullard from Baffert. A paradigm mentioned here would be to bet the lesser of the Baffert entries, which would be Barnes; he is a $3.2M yearling purchase who looked very good in his only time out. Bullard has another race under his belt and is undefeated.

For the females, there are a couple of races, only one with KY Oaks points:

No KY Oaks points for the Mockingbird at Oaklawn Park:
[ url above; January 4, 2025; Oaklawn Park - Race 7; PPs ]
Shisospicy has Flavian Prat and a couple of the top performances in the field.

Larry
DevilHorse

Cyclone State dominated the Jerome:
The race was not particularly fast, so the other horses may be suspect. I think CS was shut down in the stretch, so he could have more in the tank. Time to admit that Mckinzie is a good young sire.

Coal Battle did stalk the pace and was much the best:
Coal Battle is one of those horses that is from a minor sire (Coal Front stands for $2k) and has very modest connections. Think Senor Buscador or California Chrome where the owners and trainers have never had a consequential horse before; will be fun to follow. This horse never saw the rail. Coal Battle paid an amazing $11.

Barnes won big in the Santa Vicente' for 3YOs:
This is a convincing win. The fractions were fast early and Barnes lived to tell about it. Barnes is by Into Mischief.

Guns Loaded won the Mucho Macho Man:
Guns Loaded barely hung on to win in a mediocre time. No derby points for you though.

The Mockingbird was won by G W's Girl:
This daughter of Munnings came from off the pace and has a future; nice time.

Larry
DevilHorse
 
The Triple Crown Trail gets moving in earnest this weekend:

For the females, there are a couple of races, only one with KY Oaks points:

On Sunday is the Santa Ynez:
[ url above; January 5, 2025; Santa Anita - Race 7; PPs ]
Look Forward appears to be the most accomplished. Practical Dream had an awful last race (throw out). There are 4 fillies in here that won in their only start; not sure what they are; depending on how they look and their odds might demand a bet.

Larry
DevilHorse

Look Forward won the Santa Ynez:
Notice that the first quarter went in 22.x and the last quarter in 24.x. Happens often in TBred races. But Look Forward showed a lot of grit. Bares watching. Second place horse Artisma showed well in her second start.

Larry
DevilHorse
 
For those who might have thought of it, Santa Anita and the horses are OK (wrt the California fires). This is an hour by hour thing. Also consider that a number of Trainers and Santa Anita workers have homes in affected areas, or at least are threatened. Keep them in your thoughts (amongst other people of course).

There are no races with KYD points being offered this weekend. However, that doesn't mean there aren't contenders getting warmed up.

At Tampa Bay Downs is the PASCO stakes:
[ URL above; Saturday January 9, 2025; Tampa Bay Downs - Race 4; PPs ]
Why Race 4? Perhaps so it doesn't interfere with any NFL playoff games starting at 4:30. Owen Almighty is using this race as his comeback race. OA finished 2nd to the top 2YO Jonathan's Way, but he had some post race difficulties (the horse equivalent to Irritable Bowel Syndrome). But his connections say that he is being treated and feels good. Naughty Rascal has some good speed figures, but in these races I would say that Class (e.g., how you did when you race against top horses) wins out. Only a 7f race, so well within OA's top performance range.
The PASCO was won by Book'em Danno last year, so good horses come out of this race.

For the 3YO fillies, it is the Gasparilla at Tampa Bay Downs:
[ URL above; Saturday January 9, 2025; Tampa Bay Downs - Race 5; PPs ]
This race has no particular standout. Win N Your In has some good marks, but we have to throw the last (miserable) start out. Mrs. Worldwide is a multiple winner and has to be considered. Lynn's Milky Way is bound to improve and could take it all.

3YOC named John Hancock won this week, first time out.
This son of Constitution looks to have a future.

The new generation of foals have started to hit the ground this week. Frankly, the breeders of these horses are cutting it close. If the foals were born 9 days earlier they would be 1 year olds now. Breeding season does not start till mid February because horses have an 11 month gestation period. It also is not considered the best for a foal to be born when it is cold and snowy.

Larry
DevilHorse
 
For those who might have thought of it, Santa Anita and the horses are OK (wrt the California fires). This is an hour by hour thing. Also consider that a number of Trainers and Santa Anita workers have homes in affected areas, or at least are threatened. Keep them in your thoughts (amongst other people of course).

There are no races with KYD points being offered this weekend. However, that doesn't mean there aren't contenders getting warmed up.

At Tampa Bay Downs is the PASCO stakes:
[ URL above; Saturday January 9, 2025; Tampa Bay Downs - Race 4; PPs ]
Why Race 4? Perhaps so it doesn't interfere with any NFL playoff games starting at 4:30. Owen Almighty is using this race as his comeback race. OA finished 2nd to the top 2YO Jonathan's Way, but he had some post race difficulties (the horse equivalent to Irritable Bowel Syndrome). But his connections say that he is being treated and feels good. Naughty Rascal has some good speed figures, but in these races I would say that Class (e.g., how you did when you race against top horses) wins out. Only a 7f race, so well within OA's top performance range.
The PASCO was won by Book'em Danno last year, so good horses come out of this race.

For the 3YO fillies, it is the Gasparilla at Tampa Bay Downs:
[ URL above; Saturday January 9, 2025; Tampa Bay Downs - Race 5; PPs ]
This race has no particular standout. Win N Your In has some good marks, but we have to throw the last (miserable) start out. Mrs. Worldwide is a multiple winner and has to be considered. Lynn's Milky Way is bound to improve and could take it all.

3YOC named John Hancock won this week, first time out.
This son of Constitution looks to have a future.

The new generation of foals have started to hit the ground this week. Frankly, the breeders of these horses are cutting it close. If the foals were born 9 days earlier they would be 1 year olds now. Breeding season does not start till mid February because horses have an 11 month gestation period. It also is not considered the best for a foal to be born when it is cold and snowy.

Larry
DevilHorse
And its been really cold and snowy in central Kentucky to start the year.
 
For those who might have thought of it, Santa Anita and the horses are OK (wrt the California fires). This is an hour by hour thing. Also consider that a number of Trainers and Santa Anita workers have homes in affected areas, or at least are threatened. Keep them in your thoughts (amongst other people of course).

There are no races with KYD points being offered this weekend. However, that doesn't mean there aren't contenders getting warmed up.

At Tampa Bay Downs is the PASCO stakes:
[ URL above; Saturday January 9, 2025; Tampa Bay Downs - Race 4; PPs ]
Why Race 4? Perhaps so it doesn't interfere with any NFL playoff games starting at 4:30. Owen Almighty is using this race as his comeback race. OA finished 2nd to the top 2YO Jonathan's Way, but he had some post race difficulties (the horse equivalent to Irritable Bowel Syndrome). But his connections say that he is being treated and feels good. Naughty Rascal has some good speed figures, but in these races I would say that Class (e.g., how you did when you race against top horses) wins out. Only a 7f race, so well within OA's top performance range.
The PASCO was won by Book'em Danno last year, so good horses come out of this race.

For the 3YO fillies, it is the Gasparilla at Tampa Bay Downs:
[ URL above; Saturday January 9, 2025; Tampa Bay Downs - Race 5; PPs ]
This race has no particular standout. Win N Your In has some good marks, but we have to throw the last (miserable) start out. Mrs. Worldwide is a multiple winner and has to be considered. Lynn's Milky Way is bound to improve and could take it all.

3YOC named John Hancock won this week, first time out.
This son of Constitution looks to have a future.

The new generation of foals have started to hit the ground this week. Frankly, the breeders of these horses are cutting it close. If the foals were born 9 days earlier they would be 1 year olds now. Breeding season does not start till mid February because horses have an 11 month gestation period. It also is not considered the best for a foal to be born when it is cold and snowy.

Larry
DevilHorse
Weather continues to take a toll on racing dates (granted, a minor consideration compared to other travails). Santa Anita DID cancel the weekend racing because of the wildfires. As TheDevilMadeMeDoIt mentioned, bad weather in Kentucky forced the cancellation of the Turfway Park card on Saturday. One of the oddities of track conditions and maintenance is not when the track is too wet or too cold, it is when the ambient temperature is near 32 deg F; In this case, the track surface is inconsistently hard or soft, thus making the footing unpredictable for the horses, leading to an uptick in the probability of breakdowns.

In the PASCO, Owen Almighty was the best horse, but he couldn't keep straight in the backstretch (about 42 seconds on the video) and interfered with another horse:
Naughty Rascal was very good too and was promoted to first place. I saw the head-on of the far turn incident, and the cut-off was obvious.

In the Gasparilla, Dancing Magic wasn't a factor till the last furlong, but she won going away:
This daughter of Good Magic could have the KYO as a destination.

Larry
DevilHorse
 
Subject: Santa Anita Donation Center

No wonder Santa Anita wasn't open this weekend. They have become a center for accepting and donating supplies in the Los Angeles area for victims of the fires.

Huge gathering.

Larry
DevilHorse
 
This weekend has a few races with KYD/KYO points implications.

All races listed here are on Saturday:

For the 3YO colts, the Lecomte is being run at the Fair Grounds:
[ URL above; Saturday January 18, 2025; Fair Grounds - Race 12; PPs ]
Built won the Gun Runner most recently, has good figures, and is on a 2 race winning streak. Disco Time also has a 2 race (undefeated) win streak. Maximum Promise had an impressive maiden win and could hit the board (of course, they all could), but then he is by Maximum Security who has underperformed IMHO as a sire. I'll guess the order of finish will be Built, Disco Time, and Maximum Promise. KYD points at stake.

The 3YO filly analog of the Lecomte is the Silverbulletday:
[ URL above; Saturday January 18, 2025; Fair Grounds - Race 9; PPs ]
I think this is an open race. The likely favorites will be a trio of second time starters who won their maiden races impressively. They are Chasten, Simply Joking, and Gowell's Delight. Golden Gamble finished 2nd at the same distance, but ran in a stakes race. I would look at the odds and bet one or two of the above with the highest odds. Since fillies can evolve so rapidly at this stage that would give you the best ROI.

Another 3YO filly race is the Busanda at Aqueduct:
[ URL above; Saturday January 18, 2025; Aqueduct - Race 8; PPs ]
Running Away might be overly favored because she has great workouts and broke her maiden with a high speed figure; but she took 3 starts to do it. I'd take a chance on Bernieandtherose (with Katie Davis, wife of jockey Dylan Davis, aboard) who might be the only early speed in the race. Ruth and Ramify are second time starters, who won first out, and look like they can stalk or come from behind. At Aqueduct, often a speed favoring track, I'll put Bernieandtherose over the other 3 in exactas.

The above filly races both offer KYO points.

Another race of interest, for older horses, is the Louisiana Stakes at the Fair Grounds:
[ URL above; Saturday January 18, 2025; Fair Grounds - Race 11; PPs ]
Hit Show is a likely favorite; he reunites with regular pilot Florent Geroux (gezundheit). Maycock's Bay might be worth a shot; his jockey fits. Track Phantom is likely to lead at the half, but needs to be stronger to win; could hit the board.

Larry
DevilHorse
 
This weekend has a few races with KYD/KYO points implications.

All races listed here are on Saturday:

For the 3YO colts, the Lecomte is being run at the Fair Grounds:
[ URL above; Saturday January 18, 2025; Fair Grounds - Race 12; PPs ]
Built won the Gun Runner most recently, has good figures, and is on a 2 race winning streak. Disco Time also has a 2 race (undefeated) win streak. Maximum Promise had an impressive maiden win and could hit the board (of course, they all could), but then he is by Maximum Security who has underperformed IMHO as a sire. I'll guess the order of finish will be Built, Disco Time, and Maximum Promise. KYD points at stake.

The 3YO filly analog of the Lecomte is the Silverbulletday:
[ URL above; Saturday January 18, 2025; Fair Grounds - Race 9; PPs ]
I think this is an open race. The likely favorites will be a trio of second time starters who won their maiden races impressively. They are Chasten, Simply Joking, and Gowell's Delight. Golden Gamble finished 2nd at the same distance, but ran in a stakes race. I would look at the odds and bet one or two of the above with the highest odds. Since fillies can evolve so rapidly at this stage that would give you the best ROI.

Another 3YO filly race is the Busanda at Aqueduct:
[ URL above; Saturday January 18, 2025; Aqueduct - Race 8; PPs ]
Running Away might be overly favored because she has great workouts and broke her maiden with a high speed figure; but she took 3 starts to do it. I'd take a chance on Bernieandtherose (with Katie Davis, wife of jockey Dylan Davis, aboard) who might be the only early speed in the race. Ruth and Ramify are second time starters, who won first out, and look like they can stalk or come from behind. At Aqueduct, often a speed favoring track, I'll put Bernieandtherose over the other 3 in exactas.

The above filly races both offer KYO points.

Another race of interest, for older horses, is the Louisiana Stakes at the Fair Grounds:
[ URL above; Saturday January 18, 2025; Fair Grounds - Race 11; PPs ]
Hit Show is a likely favorite; he reunites with regular pilot Florent Geroux (gezundheit). Maycock's Bay might be worth a shot; his jockey fits. Track Phantom is likely to lead at the half, but needs to be stronger to win; could hit the board.

Larry
DevilHorse
Enjoyed reviewing the PP’s for the Fair Grounds this weekend. The Lecomte begins the sorting process for Ky Derby horses in Louisiana. There have been several good three year olds in New Orleans the last several years. Epicenter and Mandaloun are two who come to mind. Also happy to see Jose Ortiz who is riding full time in Louisiana for the first time is wining at a 30% rate. Not as warm as Miami but doesn’t have to compete with Irad.
 
Enjoyed reviewing the PP’s for the Fair Grounds this weekend. The Lecomte begins the sorting process for Ky Derby horses in Louisiana. There have been several good three year olds in New Orleans the last several years. Epicenter and Mandaloun are two who come to mind. Also happy to see Jose Ortiz who is riding full time in Louisiana for the first time is wining at a 30% rate. Not as warm as Miami but doesn’t have to compete with Irad.
Tid Bits:

Mandaloun just had his first foal born this week. It only takes 7 years for a horse to be born, win the KYD, till they sire a KYD winner. I saw a statistic that there are 4% fewer sires this past year than the year before. Watch out for inbreeding.

It is useful to note that some of these trainers are based at the big tracks. Brad Cox is at the Fair Grounds and you can get lots of FG PPs by watching his page.

You mention Jose Ortiz. Last I heard the stewards were considering suspending his brother Irad for the ride/disqualification he gave Owen Almighty (just a few entries above on this page). Not a great time of year if he gets a long suspension.

Perhaps someone should name a foal of Tiz The Law after a choice of the jockey brothers. They can name it "Or Tiz" (sorry).

Larry
DevilHorse
 
Subject: KY Derby Future Wager - #3

The 3rd KYD Future Wager betting opportunity:
[ url above; Sunday January 19, 2025; Ky Derby Future - Race 3; PPs ]

I love PPs. At least this lets me look for who the top speed figure horses are. A few horses that are off the derby trail are not listed, even though they have the speed figures.

You'll have to wait till March to see analogous PPs for the Oaks.

More information is available here:

Larry
DevilHorse
 
Subject: KY Derby Future Wager - #3

The 3rd KYD Future Wager betting opportunity:
[ url above; Sunday January 19, 2025; Ky Derby Future - Race 3; PPs ]

I love PPs. At least this lets me look for who the top speed figure horses are. A few horses that are off the derby trail are not listed, even though they have the speed figures.

You'll have to wait till March to see analogous PPs for the Oaks.

More information is available here:

Larry
DevilHorse
Really enjoyed looking at this. Have never bet in Future pools but may give it a shot if the odds are decent. Hard to handicap when front running style wins most two year old races, but not always helpful in the Ky. Derby. Lots of Into Mischief and Not This Time colts. Baffert has to have the most expensive horses in his barn of any trainer. Citizen Bull looks the best of Baffert’s horses at this time to me. Have to assume Cox will win a Derby soon. Lightly raced Disco Time is interesting but never been around two turns. He is based at Churchill Downs so he will know the track. We will see how he progresses this winter and spring. I thought East Avenue was the best two year old I watched last year then he nearly fell down coming out of the gate in the Breeders Cup and lost all chance. I will look at his odds closely. Patch Adams another Cox horse is interesting. Lightly raced, never been two turns but a 102 speed rating and another who has raced at Churchill Downs. Just noticed Disco Time and Built both in the LeComte this weekend so those two will get sorted out pretty quick. Didn’t mention Built but two straight wins and has improved his speed rating every race.
 
Really enjoyed looking at this. Have never bet in Future pools but may give it a shot if the odds are decent. Hard to handicap when front running style wins most two year old races, but not always helpful in the Ky. Derby. Lots of Into Mischief and Not This Time colts. Baffert has to have the most expensive horses in his barn of any trainer. Citizen Bull looks the best of Baffert’s horses at this time to me. Have to assume Cox will win a Derby soon. Lightly raced Disco Time is interesting but never been around two turns. He is based at Churchill Downs so he will know the track. We will see how he progresses this winter and spring. I thought East Avenue was the best two year old I watched last year then he nearly fell down coming out of the gate in the Breeders Cup and lost all chance. I will look at his odds closely. Patch Adams another Cox horse is interesting. Lightly raced, never been two turns but a 102 speed rating and another who has raced at Churchill Downs. Just noticed Disco Time and Built both in the LeComte this weekend so those two will get sorted out pretty quick. Didn’t mention Built but two straight wins and has improved his speed rating every race.
Chancer Mcpatrick was looking like a top colt going into the BC Juvenile. Finished a disappointing 6th. Afterwards (not sure how far after) they found a 'flake' (perhaps bone chip) in his ankle. Old adage is that 90% of horse problems is in legs/hooves. Connections say that they wanted to take care of removing it sooner rather than later (i.e., this summer). Expect him to log workouts by the end of January and point toward the Tampa Bay Derby if all goes well.

Rated By Merit looks interesting. 4 wins in 4 starts but only in Restricted statebred races. But very good figures.

Sierra Leone is apparently working toward his 2025 debut in the Saudi Cup in February. They have long stretches over there which will serve SL well.

Larry
DevilHorse
 
Tid Bits:

..

You mention Jose Ortiz. Last I heard the stewards were considering suspending his brother Irad for the ride/disqualification he gave Owen Almighty (just a few entries above on this page). Not a great time of year if he gets a long suspension.

..

Larry
DevilHorse
Irad Ortiz will be suspended 3 days by Tampa Bay Downs stewards for his ride on Owen Almighty because of his infraction on Rookie Card (who is doing fine). The odd thing is that the days are not contiguous by the calendar, but perhaps based on days Tampa is open. The suspension starts on Sunday (1/19) and continues on Wed/Thursday after. At least he gets to ride on big money Saturday, right.

Larry
DevilHorse
 
Just placed first bet of 2025. As I only bet on horses had to wait for an interesting race. I made a small win/place bet on lightly raced Disco Time in the Le Comte in New Orleans. First time around two turns but his speed has improved in every race. With only two races that is admittedly a small sample. Built will be the favorite and rightfully so. But Disco Time will pay better so we will see. Also bet on four horses in the Derby Futures pool, Disco Time, Citizen Bull, East Avenue and Patch Adams. All were at good odds at the time of my bet. Of course that could change during the day as more bets come in. If I am lucky enough to have one of the four actually start in the Derby I will be happy. Just a little over 3 1/2 months to the actual race. I looked at the futures wagers last year, but if you wait until a couple of prep races have been run you don’t get decent odds. So this year I am in early. By the way the favorite in the futures pool is “All other three year olds.” That has probably paid off several times in the last few years. This pool closes at 5pm today, just before the LeComte is run.
 
Just placed first bet of 2025. As I only bet on horses had to wait for an interesting race. I made a small win/place bet on lightly raced Disco Time in the Le Comte in New Orleans. First time around two turns but his speed has improved in every race. With only two races that is admittedly a small sample. Built will be the favorite and rightfully so. But Disco Time will pay better so we will see. Also bet on four horses in the Derby Futures pool, Disco Time, Citizen Bull, East Avenue and Patch Adams. All were at good odds at the time of my bet. Of course that could change during the day as more bets come in. If I am lucky enough to have one of the four actually start in the Derby I will be happy. Just a little over 3 1/2 months to the actual race. I looked at the futures wagers last year, but if you wait until a couple of prep races have been run you don’t get decent odds. So this year I am in early. By the way the favorite in the futures pool is “All other three year olds.” That has probably paid off several times in the last few years. This pool closes at 5pm today, just before the LeComte is run.
I think Patch Adams runs next week. He looks like a good one.

Larry
DevilHorse
 
This weekend has a few races with KYD/KYO points implications.

All races listed here are on Saturday:

For the 3YO colts, the Lecomte is being run at the Fair Grounds:
[ URL above; Saturday January 18, 2025; Fair Grounds - Race 12; PPs ]
Built won the Gun Runner most recently, has good figures, and is on a 2 race winning streak. Disco Time also has a 2 race (undefeated) win streak. Maximum Promise had an impressive maiden win and could hit the board (of course, they all could), but then he is by Maximum Security who has underperformed IMHO as a sire. I'll guess the order of finish will be Built, Disco Time, and Maximum Promise. KYD points at stake.

The 3YO filly analog of the Lecomte is the Silverbulletday:
[ URL above; Saturday January 18, 2025; Fair Grounds - Race 9; PPs ]
I think this is an open race. The likely favorites will be a trio of second time starters who won their maiden races impressively. They are Chasten, Simply Joking, and Gowell's Delight. Golden Gamble finished 2nd at the same distance, but ran in a stakes race. I would look at the odds and bet one or two of the above with the highest odds. Since fillies can evolve so rapidly at this stage that would give you the best ROI.

Another 3YO filly race is the Busanda at Aqueduct:
[ URL above; Saturday January 18, 2025; Aqueduct - Race 8; PPs ]
Running Away might be overly favored because she has great workouts and broke her maiden with a high speed figure; but she took 3 starts to do it. I'd take a chance on Bernieandtherose (with Katie Davis, wife of jockey Dylan Davis, aboard) who might be the only early speed in the race. Ruth and Ramify are second time starters, who won first out, and look like they can stalk or come from behind. At Aqueduct, often a speed favoring track, I'll put Bernieandtherose over the other 3 in exactas.

The above filly races both offer KYO points.

Another race of interest, for older horses, is the Louisiana Stakes at the Fair Grounds:
[ URL above; Saturday January 18, 2025; Fair Grounds - Race 11; PPs ]
Hit Show is a likely favorite; he reunites with regular pilot Florent Geroux (gezundheit). Maycock's Bay might be worth a shot; his jockey fits. Track Phantom is likely to lead at the half, but needs to be stronger to win; could hit the board.

Larry
DevilHorse

For all of you Luis Saez fans out there, he is off his suspension and is now in some sort of parole situation. Evidently anger management was involved.

TDMMDI is surely happy to know that Disco Time joins the KYD dance and won the Lecomte:
That was about as wide a turn as I've seen taken by a winner of a race. And boy was it muddy. Fortunately, Disco Time ended up on the crown of the racetrack (likely to be the least muddy) and the stretch at the Fair Grounds is almost the longest in North America. Los Alamitos has the longest stretch (1380 feet) vs. the Fair Grounds (1346); compare that to Aqueduct (1155 feet), Churchill Downs (1234 feet), Gulfstream Park (only 921 feet), Pimlico is 1152 feet, Santa Anita and Monmouth at 990 feet, Oaklawn Park at 1155 (same as Aqueduct) and Belmont Park is 1097 feet (doesn't seem that way, but it is a long run from the starting line of the Belmont to the first turn). But I digress.. This was a full field of 13 horses, so traffic conditions were pretty bad. I know TDMMDI loves all things Not This Time (Disco Time's sire) and he seems to be coming into his own. Built was a very good 2nd.

The Silverbulletday was won by Simply Joking:
Simply Joking went to the front and never looked back; the rail was not the best part of the track. Simply Joking's sire Practical Joke's name keeps appearing and must continue to be watched. Chasten didn't like something and was flat.

Running Away ran away with the Busanda Stakes:
My Sherona could not close. Running Away is by Gun Runner and has a pedigree that is built for classic distances.

Hit Show used his patented come from behind move to win the Louisiana Stakes:
Again, the crown of the track was golden.

Larry
DevilHorse
 
We learned a few things about Disco Time. Slop is no problem. Two turns is no problem. He doesn’t have to be on the lead. That’s at least three positives for his Derby campaign. I am rooting for him, but still a long way off. Checked out breeding today. His mom was a hard hitting Pennsylvania bred. Over 40 races in a five year career so obviously a hickory mare. Ten wins and in the money 30 times. DevilHorse, the breeding expert, will know a lot more but it seems to this novice, that’s a good mare to breed to a top quality sire. Some on the FanDuel panel liked Maximum Promise. This was his first race since August so a fifth place finish was pretty good. As already mentioned Built ran a heck of a race. I stupidly didn’t bet an exacta. Now getting excited for more Derby preps. I hope Cox will stick with Geroux on Disco Time. He is an underrated jockey in my opinion. Finally thank heavens for Geroux wearing Juddmonte’s pink cap. That was the only way I could identify DT in the dark.
 
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