Duke vs. Auburn (Wed 12/4, 9:15pm ET, ESPN) Pregame and In-Game Thread

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Duke is the more talented team. It comes down to exerting your will. Duke hasn't been able to do that against top flight opponents so far, or at least they haven't done it enough to win tight games against top 5 opponents (as judged by the current rankings) this year quite yet. But I also think there is a TON of playing the results in close contests, where 1 play going differently would mean Duke is undefeated right now. It is a fallacy of small sample sizes problem at this point. If Duke is 23-9 at some point with a demonstrable inability to win close contests, then we will have enough evidence that this team just can't figure it out in close games. But dear lord, we don't know that yet. Duke is playing a tough schedule, which is how you get better. And an Auburn team, which is playing great, is up next. But they are coming to Cameron. Anyone on here who isn't fired up and out for blood is afraid of competition. These are the moments players live for. And you have to be tough enough to go beat someone who wants to come into your house and beat you. LFG.
 
ClemmonsDevil said:
Duke is the more talented team. It comes down to exerting your will. Duke hasn't been able to do that against top flight opponents so far, or at least they haven't done it enough to win tight games against top 5 opponents (as judged by the current rankings) this year quite yet. But I also think there is a TON of playing the results in close contests, where 1 play going differently would mean Duke is undefeated right now. It is a fallacy of small sample sizes problem at this point. If Duke is 23-9 at some point with a demonstrable inability to win close contests, then we will have enough evidence that this team just can't figure it out in close games. But dear lord, we don't know that yet. Duke is playing a tough schedule, which is how you get better. And an Auburn team, which is playing great, is up next. But they are coming to Cameron. Anyone on here who isn't fired up and out for blood is afraid of competition. These are the moments players live for. And you have to be tough enough to go beat someone who wants to come into your house and beat you. LFG.
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I nominate ClemmonsDevil to give DBR a pep talk before every big game!!!

Related side note: any reports yet about the line in KVille? I have to imagine it has either started or will be this evening…
 
ClemmonsDevil said:
Duke is the more talented team. It comes down to exerting your will. Duke hasn't been able to do that against top flight opponents so far, or at least they haven't done it enough to win tight games against top 5 opponents (as judged by the current rankings) this year quite yet. But I also think there is a TON of playing the results in close contests, where 1 play going differently would mean Duke is undefeated right now. It is a fallacy of small sample sizes problem at this point. If Duke is 23-9 at some point with a demonstrable inability to win close contests, then we will have enough evidence that this team just can't figure it out in close games. But dear lord, we don't know that yet. Duke is playing a tough schedule, which is how you get better. And an Auburn team, which is playing great, is up next. But they are coming to Cameron. Anyone on here who isn't fired up and out for blood is afraid of competition. These are the moments players live for. And you have to be tough enough to go beat someone who wants to come into your house and beat you. LFG.
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This is why we are friends. Well stated.
 
scottdude8 said:
While I totally get this sentiment (Auburn has looked fantastic, after all) I think the “bad matchup” vibe is disproportionately due to how frightening of a matchup Broome is. He deserves his flowers and to be the focus of our game plan, to be sure. But where else is there a “bad matchup” here for Duke? As I mentioned upthread, outside of Broome their front court is not at all intimidating. Auburn’s guards have good size, but obviously so do ours. Mazara and Kelly are statistically great 3 point shooters, but Mazara has done so on low volume.

To be clear, I agree this is Duke’s toughest game yet, and we probably should be the underdog despite what the analytics say. But I don’t see what makes this game orders of magnitude more daunting than Kansas or Kentucky.
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Good points.

And Auburn and Broome have not faced the height and length they'll see from Duke.

I get that Cooper will give up some weight but he'll contest every shot and rebound. I doubt Broome dominates the glass like he has recently.

And I think their two big lineup actually may play to our strengths as the drive and kick game, as well as the mid range game, should be alive and well.

But as others have mentioned this is predicated on us making some shots that were completely capable of doing.
 
ClemmonsDevil said:
Duke is the more talented team. It comes down to exerting your will. Duke hasn't been able to do that against top flight opponents so far, or at least they haven't done it enough to win tight games against top 5 opponents (as judged by the current rankings) this year quite yet. But I also think there is a TON of playing the results in close contests, where 1 play going differently would mean Duke is undefeated right now. It is a fallacy of small sample sizes problem at this point. If Duke is 23-9 at some point with a demonstrable inability to win close contests, then we will have enough evidence that this team just can't figure it out in close games. But dear lord, we don't know that yet. Duke is playing a tough schedule, which is how you get better. And an Auburn team, which is playing great, is up next. But they are coming to Cameron. Anyone on here who isn't fired up and out for blood is afraid of competition. These are the moments players live for. And you have to be tough enough to go beat someone who wants to come into your house and beat you. LFG.
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Not surprisingly I have a disagreement with this take that everyone else loves. Sorry. :)

I find the "want it more / exerting your will" argument to be an excuse. I think it shifts the blame onto players rather than holding the coach accountable for coming up with a game plan. It's like the General sending guys into no man's land and telling them to "want it" more versus coming up with a strategy and plan to win that doesn't involve everyone dying.

One of my hopes for Jon was he would be a better tactician. But to date it seems that Jon is like K, a "fix bayonets and charge" coach. And I just don't think that's the way to win vs. elite competition where a talent advantage isn't enough.
 
bluedevilwildcats said:
Not surprisingly I have a disagreement with this take that everyone else loves. Sorry. :)

I find the "want it more / exerting your will" argument to be an excuse. I think it shifts the blame onto players rather than holding the coach accountable for coming up with a game plan. It's like the General sending guys into no man's land and telling them to "want it" more versus coming up with a strategy and plan to win that doesn't involve everyone dying.

One of my hopes for Jon was he would be a better tactician. But to date it seems that Jon is like K, a "fix bayonets and charge" coach. And I just don't think that's the way to win vs. elite competition where a talent advantage isn't enough.
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If you don’t think K was a tactician, I have nothing for ya. I have zero doubt in my mind that if prime-K was coaching tomorrow night, he’d “tactically” find a way to make Broome’s life miserable.

I think Jon has plenty of room to grow in this regard, for sure, but you shouldn’t expect him to be a finished product any more than you should expect Kon and Cooper to be finished products 4 weeks into the year.
 
scottdude8 said:
While I totally get this sentiment (Auburn has looked fantastic, after all) I think the “bad matchup” vibe is disproportionately due to how frightening of a matchup Broome is. He deserves his flowers and to be the focus of our game plan, to be sure. But where else is there a “bad matchup” here for Duke? As I mentioned upthread, outside of Broome their front court is not at all intimidating. Auburn’s guards have good size, but obviously so do ours. Mazara and Kelly are statistically great 3 point shooters, but Mazara has done so on low volume.

To be clear, I agree this is Duke’s toughest game yet, and we probably should be the underdog despite what the analytics say. But I don’t see what makes this game orders of magnitude more daunting than Kansas or Kentucky.
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Agree. In just about all cases, "bad matchup" is either shorthand or just a lazy way of saying "they're better than us" or "team x is better than team y." If Broome is a "bad matchup" it's because he's a stronger, more polished, more experienced, and more skilled player than the guys he'll be playing against. In other words, he's a better player.
 
bluedevilwildcats said:
Not surprisingly I have a disagreement with this take that everyone else loves. Sorry. :)

I find the "want it more / exerting your will" argument to be an excuse. I think it shifts the blame onto players rather than holding the coach accountable for coming up with a game plan. It's like the General sending guys into no man's land and telling them to "want it" more versus coming up with a strategy and plan to win that doesn't involve everyone dying.

One of my hopes for Jon was he would be a better tactician. But to date it seems that Jon is like K, a "fix bayonets and charge" coach. And I just don't think that's the way to win vs. elite competition where a talent advantage isn't enough.
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Yeah. I hate that K struggled to win big games.
 
I don't think Duke has the same functional length as a team like Auburn. I've watched some Auburn games this year and Caldwell is an active big. Hard fouls, not cheap but he gets his money worth. This game definately has the potential for Duke to be knocked back.

I love how everyone keeps saying that Cooper and Khaman are 17/18 and how amazing that is. I get it, they are impressive for their respective ages but in the end, in March, they will still be 17/18 and that will be a problem.
 
whereinthehellami said:
I don't think Duke has the same functional length as a team like Auburn. I've watched some Auburn games this year and Caldwell is an active big. Hard fouls, not cheap but he gets his money worth. This game definately has the potential for Duke to be knocked back.

I love how everyone keeps saying that Cooper and Khaman are 17/18 and how amazing that is. I get it, they are impressive for their respective ages but in the end, in March, they will still be 17/18 and that will be a problem.
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True, but they will be a wizened 17/18. Huge difference.
 
The key is holding Broome to 20 and 10. In Auburn's two close games this year, Iowa State and Houston, Brome was held to about that level of production. If he goes off for a 30/20 game we're in for a tough night.

We have three bigs we can use to guard Broome: Maluach, Brown, and Ngongba. Would be great to see Ngongba get a few minutes in this game.
 
I see two major tactical battles.

When they have the ball, it's Auburn's #1 2-point offense (65.7%) against Duke's #4 2-point defense (40.3% allowed). If Auburn gets the interior shots they've been getting against opponents so far, it will be very tough. On the other hand, our size and length may present a unique challenge for Auburn. Of the teams they've played so far, only Memphis and Iowa State are even close to Duke in size, and both have been middling at preventing 2s so far. Still, the fact that Auburn went 20-28 (71%) from 2 against a Kelvin Sampson Houston defense is downright scary.

When Duke has the ball, it will be fascinating to see how many 3s Duke shoots. We're on track to be the most 3-point heavy Duke team of all time. Auburn's defense allows few 3 point attempts (27.9% of all fg attempts, which is 5th lowest in D-I). Auburn opponents are only assisting on 29.5% of their made baskets, which is the lowest number in the country. In other words, Auburn wants to extend their defense and force you to beat them one on one. I'm not sure if that is a good thing or a bad thing on Wednesday. On the bad side, if they take away our 3s, we better have a plan b. On the good side, it might be refreshing to face this kind of defense. Our offense is ballscreen/ISO heavy, and we've had trouble driving into crowded lanes. Typically, you beat a team like this with superior talent and guys who can get their own shot. We'll see if our guys are up to that challenge.

Auburn has been the best team in the country so far. It will take a really good performance, and perhaps a bit of Cameron magic.
 
phaedrus said:
Even better, a wizened 18/18.5.

To be honest, I think it's fair to suggest that 3-4 months of physical/emotional growth means more for a 17-18 year old than a 23-24 year old. But it's probably overplayed.
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Isn't almost everything in sports overplayed? What did that guy say about Baseball in Bull Durham - ya catch the ball, ya throw the ball a and you hit the ball. Just keep it simple.
 
I frankly don’t expect Duke beating Auburn. I’ll be more than pleasantly surprised if they do. Can they? Of course. Auburn is tough, older, and Bruce can get them to go full berserk mode. Brevity makes some good points about Auburn’s vulnerability inside. Overall, Auburn is scary because they like to full on brawl on airplanes at high altitude. There’s a level of crazy there. I hope Duke matches their crazy with, “you think you crazy, I show you crazy!” I expect Kon, Tyrese and Caleb to get their outside shot going — at least I hope — to free up the bigs. I enjoyed seeing Auburn play and getting beat of course by Duke in Maui a few years back and hope we can do the same. I still feel they (Auburn after Duke failed to make the Final Four) deserved the championship which was poached by the officiating. Still had Duke not experienced the same level of sketch against Mich State — they would have dominated the FF.
 
I don't have any expectations for this game. Maybe Duke blows them out, working like a talented well-oiled machine (where I am rooting for Gillis to get off the schneid), Auburn folds and the talking heads ramp up the Duke is FF bound talk (where I will say to remember, it's still early). Maybe Auburn embarrasses Duke's interior defense, Broome goes off, Duke can't hit anything from 3, and the questions then abound (where I will say to remember, it's still early). Or it could go any number of permutations between... Pearl, if anything, is an emotional coach. He can get his players fired up. I think Scheyer and the staff will need to prove themselves here, tactically and emotionally. And if it once again comes down to one Duke offensive play at the end of the game, IMO they should not go to the same Kon/Flagg (solely freshman) well again (3rd time would probably not be a charm)... This is also game where Cameron and the environment would be great to come into play. Keeping it loud, getting the clever heckling going, not letting up all game. The team, including the coaches, have never experienced this. I saw an article posted where it said Auburn is bringing in noise-making machines for its practices. No noisemaker can equate Cameron in jet engine mode. It's an intangible plus.

9F
 
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