Duke vs. Auburn (Wed 12/4, 9:15pm ET, ESPN) Pregame and In-Game Thread

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This week's AP Poll is out. Auburn is now #2, while Duke is #9.

Back in October, Auburn was picked to finish 2nd in the SEC preseason poll, behind their hated in-state rival Alabama, while the Tigers' Johni Broome was expected to watch the Tide's Mark Sears run away with the conference's Player of the Year award. Since then, both Auburn and Broome have emerged from the shadows to become league and national favorites. (Stop me if this sounds familiar, because it's like an SEC version of Duke and UNC.)

Head coach Bruce Pearl is in his 11th season at Auburn, and his War Eagle teams have made 5 of the last 6 NCAA Tournaments, peaking with a 2019 Final Four run that included upset wins over UNC and Kentucky. You remember...

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They are 7-0 so far this season, with impressive wins over four opponents who are currently ranked: #17 Houston (74-69: recap, box score, highlights, full replay), #6 Iowa State (83-81: recap, box score, highlights, full replay), #20 UNC (85-72: recap, box score, highlights, full replay), and #16 Memphis (90-76: recap, box score, highlights, full replay).

I'm getting Last Ride vibes from Coach Pearl's roster. Nine players in his 11-man rotation -- all five starters and four of the reserves -- complete their eligibility in the spring. There's a tenth senior who has yet to play this season, plus two freshmen, RSCI #28 Tahaad Pettiford and #61 Jahki Howard. There are no sophomores or juniors on this team who were recruited scholarship athletes.

PROBABLE STARTERS

6-10 senior post Johni Broome (20.7 pts, 12.9 reb, 3.3 ast, 3.1 blk)
6-7 senior wing Chad Baker-Mazara (12.6 pts, 3.1 Reb, 1.9 Ast, 1.0 stl)
6-4 senior guard Denver Jones (11.1 pts, 1.9 reb, 3.3 ast, 1.0 stl)
6-6 senior guard Miles Kelly (10.0 pts, 2.1 reb, 0.9 ast)
6-11 grad center Dylan Cardwell (5.6 pts, 3.4 reb, 2.4 ast, 1.0 stl)

TOP RESERVES

6-7 senior forward Chaney Johnson (10.6 pts, 6.0 reb, 1.7 ast, 1.1 blk)
6-1 freshman guard Tahaad Pettiford (9.6 pts, 1.3 reb, 2.7 ast, 1.0 stl)
6-6 freshman forward Jahki Howard (5.5 pts, 2.0 reb, 0.0 ast)
6-2 senior guard JP Pegues (2.6 pts, 1.6 reb, 1.0 ast)
6-6 fifth-year forward Chris Moore (0.9 pts, 1.4 reb, 0.6 ast)
6-7 senior forward Ja'Heim Hudson (0.7 pts, 1.0 reb, 1.0 ast)

BENCH PLAYERS

5-11 junior guard Presley Patterson (1.7 pts, 0.0 reb, 0.0 ast)
6-2 junior guard CJ Williams (1.0 pts, 0.0 reb, 0.0 ast)
6-3 sophomore guard Blake Muschalek (0.7 pts, 0.0 reb, 0.7 ast)
6-5 redshirt freshman guard Drake Cardwell
6-9 senior forward Addarin Scott
5-6 freshman guard Joah Shay
6-6 junior guard Reed Trapp

Johni Broome leads the nation in rebounds and is 4th in blocked shots. Before the season started, a few staffers of the student paper The Auburn Plainsman offered their predictions for the team -- win-loss record, top newcomer, and so on. This is what they said for top defensive player:





Broome is also very good on offense: he's 2nd in the SEC in scoring, keeps opponents honest with his outside game (9-for-26, or 34.6 percent), and averages over 3 assists. He's not alone in the post; center Dylan Cardwell, who started only three times in his previous 4 years at Auburn, has started every game this season.

Returners Chad Baker-Mazara and Denver Jones headline the perimeter, and they're joined by freshman standout Pettiford and a pair of familiar transfers: Miles Kelly and JP Pegues. You may recall Kelly, who was Georgia Tech's leading scorer as a sophomore and junior. He scored 16 points in each of the Yellow Jackets' games against Duke last season. Pegues played for Furman, and hit the winning shot in the 2023 NCAA Tournament to upset Virginia.

Auburn can go small, replacing Cardwell with Pettiford, and have five players on the court who each shoot a fair amount of threes, and range from a 34 to 45 percent success rate. Opponents should resist fouling Jones (26-of-28 from the line) and Baker-Mazara (21-of-24). Pettiford is only 9-of-9.

Nerd fight! Auburn is KenPom #1, while Duke is T-Rank #1. Ken Pomeroy and Bart Torvik agree, however, that Auburn is #1 in adjusted offensive efficiency, while Duke is #1 in adjusted defensive efficiency. (Irresistible force, meet immovable object.)

Let's do a tale of the tape, now with NET rankings included. Stats are from Basketball Reference unless otherwise indicated.

TABLE 1

Category Auburn (7-0)Duke (5-2)
Points Scored86.7 (21st nationally)80.7 (92nd)
Points Allowed66.6 (83rd)58.6 (10th)
Scoring Margin (NCAA.com)20.1 (26th)22.1 (17th)
Total Rebounds37.3 (159th)41.3 (36th)
--- Offensive Rebounds10.0 (237th)11.9 (137th)
--- Defensive Rebounds27.3 (96th)29.4 (22nd)
Assists18.4 (19th)17.4 (36th)
Steals6.4 (252nd)9.4 (39th)
Blocks6.0 (8th)4.1 (89th)
Turnovers9.6 (24th fewest)11.6 (135th fewest)
Personal Fouls17.4 (187th fewest)17.0 (157th fewest)
Field Goal Percentage52.5% (5th)46.3% (124th)
2-Point FG Percentage65.7% (1st)56.4% (80th)
3-Point FG Percentage36.3% (86th)36.1% (91st)
Free Throw Percentage75.2% (75th)73.3% (121st)

TABLE 2

CategoryAuburnDuke
NET Ranking (NCAA.com)#2#4
--- Quad 14-01-2
--- Quad 20-00-0
--- Quad 31-02-0
--- Quad 42-02-0
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy)#1#4
--- Offensive Efficiency#1#23
--- Defensive Efficiency#7#1
--- Tempo#165#225
T-Rank (Bart Torvik)#4 (T-Page)#1 (T-Page)
--- Experience2.647 (12th)1.031 (358th)
--- Talent30.592 (101st)81.907 (3rd)
Assist/Turnover Ratio (NCAA.com)1.93 (9th)1.51 (61st)
Bench Points (NCAA.com)29.0 (66th)22.0 (204th)
Fastbreak Points (NCAA.com)10.9 (168th)12.7 (101st)

Ken Pomeroy defines efficiency as an extrapolated measure of points scored (offensive) or allowed (defensive) per 100 possessions against an average opponent. The more points you score and the fewer points you allow, the better. Tempo refers to the number of possessions per 40 minutes against an average tempo: the higher the rank, the faster the tempo. Faster isn't necessarily better; Houston is among the 20 slowest teams, and is KenPom #5.

Bart Torvik offers some clarification on Experience and Talent in the comments here. Experience "is based on class year (3 for senior, 0 for freshman) with caveat that it actually counts how many years a guy has played 10 games in, so if a guy is listed as a soph even though he's played two full years already, he'll count as a junior." Talent "is based on composite recruiting ranks weighted for minutes played."



Bart Torvik projects a 75-70 Duke win. Auburn is a 1-point statistical underdog in their road games against Alabama and Kentucky, but is favored in the rest of its schedule.
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Excellent as always, brev ;)

Something that Auburn's incredible start seems to have concealed is their relative lack of depth on the interior, especially relative to the great depth they have on the perimeter. Cardwell ostensibly starts at the 5 but doesn't give them much in the box score, and then none of the reserves are taller than 6'7''. This gives Duke it's biggest opening, IMHO.

When Broome plays at the 4, he'll obviously be a challenging matchup for Cooper in the post, but Cooper's perimeter skills and speed should be just as much of a problem on the other end of the court. When we have that matchup, I hope we try to attack and get some cheap fouls on Broome given how invaluable he is to that team. On the defensive end of the court, it wouldn't surprise me if Maliq gets more run so that he can cover Broome, regardless of who else is in Auburn's front court... while having Cooper guard a 6'11'' center isn't ideal, when that guy is an afterthought offensively we can probably get away with it.

Auburn feels a bit like a house of cards reliant on Broome: we don't know how the Tigers will respond if Broome isn't their focal point. Broome only has 4 fouls in one game this year, against Houston, and was still able to play 33 minutes... he played 36, 34, and 32 minutes in each of their games in Maui (with decreasing levels of competitiveness). Our game plan should be to leverage the advantage that the Cameron crowd always seems to give us and force Bruce Pearl into some uncomfortable substitution patterns in the front court.
 
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scottdude8 said:
Excellent as always, brev ;)

Something that Auburn's incredible start seems to have concealed is their relative lack of depth on the interior, especially relative to the great depth they have on the perimeter. Cardwell ostensibly starts at the 5 but doesn't give them much in the box score, and then none of the reserves are taller than 6'7''. This gives Duke it's biggest opening, IMHO.

When Broome plays at the 4, he'll obviously be a challenging matchup for Cooper in the post, but Cooper's perimeter skills and speed should be just as much of a problem on the other end of the court. When we have that matchup, I hope we try to attack and get some cheap fouls on Broome given how invaluable he is to that team. On the defensive end of the court, it wouldn't surprise me if Maliq gets more run so that he can cover Broome, regardless of who else is in Auburn's front court... while having Cooper guard a 6'11'' center isn't ideal, when that guy is an afterthought offensively we can probably get away with it.

Auburn feels a bit like a house of cards reliant on Broome: we don't know how the Tigers will respond if Broome isn't their focal point. Broome only has 4 fouls in one game this year, against Auburn, and was still able to play 33 minutes... he played 36, 34, and 32 minutes in each of their games in Maui (with decreasing levels of competitiveness). Our game plan should be to leverage the advantage that the Cameron crowd always seems to give us and force Bruce Pearl into some uncomfortable substitution patterns in the front court.
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Was those 4 fouls against Alabama? Not against Auburn.

GoDuke!
 
Jon talked about having solid practice time between the Seattle game and the Auburn game. He noted there were things to work on and I would hope they will include interior penetration with scoring and also better front court participation in the rebounding arena. These multi-day beaks between games allow the team to grow and they will need to to beat Auburn.
 
scottdude8 said:
Excellent as always, brev ;)

Something that Auburn's incredible start seems to have concealed is their relative lack of depth on the interior, especially relative to the great depth they have on the perimeter. Cardwell ostensibly starts at the 5 but doesn't give them much in the box score, and then none of the reserves are taller than 6'7''. This gives Duke it's biggest opening, IMHO.

When Broome plays at the 4, he'll obviously be a challenging matchup for Cooper in the post, but Cooper's perimeter skills and speed should be just as much of a problem on the other end of the court. When we have that matchup, I hope we try to attack and get some cheap fouls on Broome given how invaluable he is to that team. On the defensive end of the court, it wouldn't surprise me if Maliq gets more run so that he can cover Broome, regardless of who else is in Auburn's front court... while having Cooper guard a 6'11'' center isn't ideal, when that guy is an afterthought offensively we can probably get away with it.

Auburn feels a bit like a house of cards reliant on Broome: we don't know how the Tigers will respond if Broome isn't their focal point. Broome only has 4 fouls in one game this year, against Houston, and was still able to play 33 minutes... he played 36, 34, and 32 minutes in each of their games in Maui (with decreasing levels of competitiveness). Our game plan should be to leverage the advantage that the Cameron crowd always seems to give us and force Bruce Pearl into some uncomfortable substitution patterns in the front court.
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I think you're right that Brown could guard Broome some while Flagg covers the 6-11 Cardwell. Could also be a game where we go big for some minutes with Flagg/Brown/Maluach to give Brown even more time on Broome.

Brown really got inside Hunter Dickerson's head with all the pesky ball slaps. Hunter gave him a forearm to the throat a few minutes before purposely kicking him in the head. Would be huge if Brown can disrupt Broome the same way.

Bottom line - we've got two outstanding defenders in Flagg and Brown to cover Broome. If they can neutralize him, that could be the ballgame.
 
A few things stand out about Auburn. The War Eagles have played a tough schedule thus far and have been very good in all seven games.

In terms of stats, Auburn doesn’t give up many threes (#5 in the country in T-rank). Of course, Duke loves to take threes, so that’s an interesting contrast. Auburn doesn’t turn the ball over much, but they also haven’t forced many turnovers. Auburn has the best 2 point percentage offense in the country; Duke has the 4th best 2 point percentage defense.

Auburn is a very old team, with only one non-senior among the top nine in playing time. (How did Pearl convince Broome to return for a fifth year?)
 
MChambers said:
A few things stand out about Auburn. The War Eagles have played a tough schedule thus far and have been very good in all seven games.

In terms of stats, Auburn doesn’t give up many threes (#5 in the country in T-rank). Of course, Duke loves to take threes, so that’s an interesting contrast. Auburn doesn’t turn the ball over much, but they also haven’t forced many turnovers. Auburn has the best 2 point percentage offense in the country; Duke has the 4th best 2 point percentage defense.

Auburn is a very old team, with only one non-senior among the top nine in playing time. (How did Pearl convince Broome to return for a fifth year?)
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Yeah we're 13th in the country in number of 3's taken per game. Unfortunately, we're 92nd in percentage of 3's taken that go in the basket.
 
Against quality teams Duke doesn’t shoot well. Hope this changes against Auburn and with the cold weather viruses are prevalent hope everyone remains healthy.
Sion and Maliq will be crucial for Wednesday night. Kon and Cooper need to play smarter and don’t get trapped in double teams. Auburn is a very good team and Pearl is an excellent coach.
 
tommy said:
Yeah we're 13th in the country in number of 3's taken per game. Unfortunately, we're 92nd in percentage of 3's taken that go in the basket.
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T-Rank has us at 78th (out of 364 teams) in three-point percentage. Volume often correlates only loosely, if not negatively, with percentage, so that's still pretty good.

I count 11 teams ahead of us in 3P% among the top-25 on T-Rank, including Auburn's #1 offense, which edges us by 0.2% (36.3% to 36.1%). There are no teams in the top-25 on T-Rank that beat us on both three-point attempts and 3P%.
 
heyman25 said:
Against quality teams Duke doesn’t shoot well. Hope this changes against Auburn and with the cold weather viruses are prevalent hope everyone remains healthy.
Sion and Maliq will be crucial for Wednesday night. Kon and Cooper need to play smarter and don’t get trapped in double teams. Auburn is a very good team and Pearl is an excellent coach.
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I'm glad you brought up Pearl, as the coaching matchup is probably almost as important as the players. I was looking at Pearl's track record on Kenpom, to see if he's a defensive vs. offensive minded coach. Last several years his teams have been strong defensively. My guess is that will be an advantage in this game as shutting down our offense seems to cause the most problems.

I'm curious if some of the changes Jon is working on this week include what we do if specific players get shut down (or are shooting poorly). To my untrained eye it doesn't seem like we've adapted well to that so far this year.
 
hallcity said:
When was the last time Duke had a bigger non-conference home game? I can't say but I think it's been quite a few years.

The team needs the students, big time.
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Considering that the winner takes (or keeps) possession of the all-important Walton Belt, this game is as big as they come!
 
whereinthehellami said:
Unless Duke shoots the lights outs, it looks like an Auburn win to me. Other than being at home, just a really bad matchup across the board for Duke. Hope I'm wrong.
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While I totally get this sentiment (Auburn has looked fantastic, after all) I think the “bad matchup” vibe is disproportionately due to how frightening of a matchup Broome is. He deserves his flowers and to be the focus of our game plan, to be sure. But where else is there a “bad matchup” here for Duke? As I mentioned upthread, outside of Broome their front court is not at all intimidating. Auburn’s guards have good size, but obviously so do ours. Mazara and Kelly are statistically great 3 point shooters, but Mazara has done so on low volume.

To be clear, I agree this is Duke’s toughest game yet, and we probably should be the underdog despite what the analytics say. But I don’t see what makes this game orders of magnitude more daunting than Kansas or Kentucky.
 
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