DBR Podcast episodes with Brendan Marks

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UrinalCake

Member
If you haven't yet listened to these two episodes, drop whatever you're doing and do so right now. The breakdown of Duke's team is excellent as expected, but things get really juicy in part two where he discusses the NIL landscape and some specific details about UNC. He provided a look behind the curtain into the inner workings of NIL that I've never heard before, and it was fascinating to hear how much the portal and a team's NIL "salary cap" dominate the job of a college coach.

For UNC, the main reason they weren't able to land a big is that they couldn't offer anyone from the portal more than what RJ Davis was already getting. This raises a bunch of questions in my mind. First of all, why couldn't they just bump up Davis's deal to match whatever they were going to offer to somebody else? Secondly, is it really unthinkable that the money players receive isn't directly proportional to their value to the team? This happens all the time in pro sports when one player signs a contract right after the salary cap bumps up, or another player is traded for at the midseason deadline. From a Duke perspective, a bunch of questions come to mind as well. Did Roach leave because his asking price got higher than what we were giving Flagg? It would be fascinating to see the salary breakdown of how much each of our players are getting. That sort of information has always been a mystery to fans, but Marks at least started to shed a little bit of light by giving some ballpark team figures.

FWIW I've heard from other UNC sources that there were other reasons why they missed on some of their big man targets, mostly revolving around the timing of when certain players entered or withdrew from the draft. So part of me wonders whether Marks is overstating the role of NIL offers and using that as an excuse for UNC's failures in the portal. But regardless, I thoroughly enjoyed the interview as it opened my eyes to the realities of the college game which have been kind of obvious but I've tried to ignore.
 
I don't think the issue was just RJs deal reading between the lines of what he said. Washington and Withers per40 numbers were as good or better than some of the centers they were targeting who ended up with $1-2M deals. So in the end Lubin was the one guy they could afford without toppling the apple cart.

Did Hubert seriously underestimate the price of these top centers? If he'd set his sights a little lower earlier, could he have landed a better transfer than Lubin? Lubin is a decent player but his eFG%, per40 rebounds and per40 assists are all well below All-ACC defender Maliq Brown. :)

Marks also said that both Duke and UNC have very good NIL but it's not on par with the top SEC and Big12 schools. I seriously doubt Marks has full visibility on Duke's NIL deals. This is closely guarded information. So I hope he's wrong. We don't need to be tops in the nation but I think we need to be top 10ish to continue to field top 10ish teams. The Duke brand and success with OADs probably gives us a bit of a discount but how long will that hold up? We don't ever want to be where UNC was this offseason whiffing on guys they really needed to fill out their roster.
 
Minor nit: it’s not really NIL “salary cap management “ as Marks said. There is no cap, but each team has a budget. Call it “payroll management”, maybe?
 
SkyBrickey said:
Marks also said that both Duke and UNC have very good NIL but it's not on par with the top SEC and Big12 schools. I seriously doubt Marks has full visibility on Duke's NIL deals. This is closely guarded information. So I hope he's wrong. We don't need to be tops in the nation but I think we need to be top 10ish to continue to field top 10ish teams. The Duke brand and success with OADs probably gives us a bit of a discount but how long will that hold up? We don't ever want to be where UNC was this offseason whiffing on guys they really needed to fill out their roster.
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He also alluded to Duke being able negate some of the NIL disadvantage by being an established path to the NBA. So they can get guys like Flagg at a lower price because those guys are more concerned about their long term NBA earnings which Duke can prepare them for. They don’t need the best NIL deal for their one year of college, they need development.
 
MChambers said:
Minor nit: it’s not really NIL “salary cap management “ as Marks said. There is no cap, but each team has a budget. Call it “payroll management”, maybe?
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I also got the impression that the budget wasn't a fixed amount, but could be increased if they decided to target a player that they could pitch to the donors as being attractive. Like if we target player X then the donors wouldn't be willing to shell out any more money, but player Y is somebody everyone likes so the boosters will start writing checks for him.
 
nocilla said:
He also alluded to Duke being able negate some of the NIL disadvantage by being an established path to the NBA. So they can get guys like Flagg at a lower price because those guys are more concerned about their long term NBA earnings which Duke can prepare them for. They don’t need the best NIL deal for their one year of college, they need development.
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Conversely, UNC keeping around a five star center like Bacot for 10 years and him leaving with zero pro stock didn't exactly make them a preferred destination for big men.
 
UrinalCake said:
I also got the impression that the budget wasn't a fixed amount, but could be increased if they decided to target a player that they could pitch to the donors as being attractive. Like if we target player X then the donors wouldn't be willing to shell out any more money, but player Y is somebody everyone likes so the boosters will start writing checks for him.
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Yes. I would like someone to explain how this all consistent with the NCAA rules on NIL.
 
Yes, Duke's track record of preparing top 10 recruits for the NBA and having an active brotherhood network are built in advantages that we'd be crazy not to take advantage of.

Our most cost effective strategy would seem to be to fill out our rotations with elite OAD freshmen, multi year recruits and veteran role players. I don't think we ever want to be in a bidding war against Alabama, Arkansas or anyone else for a star veteran player.
 
Yep

-jk said:
Rules? That ship has sailed.

-jk
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We don't need no stinkin' rules?

I guess if a school gets caught, they just use the "everybody else is doing it" defense. Doesn't work that well on Wall Street, but better with institutions of higher learning, perhaps.
 
UrinalCake said:
Conversely, UNC keeping around a five star center like Bacot for 10 years and him leaving with zero pro stock didn't exactly make them a preferred destination for big men.
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I agree and I think Marks really exaggerated the NIL aspect for UNC and failed to mention its failure to produce high level NBA talent.

When Tatum signs his astronomical new contract, it will allow Duke to show his photo to recruits and tell them, that could be you.
 
MChambers said:
We don't need no stinkin' rules?

I guess if a school gets caught, they just use the "everybody else is doing it" defense. Doesn't work that well on Wall Street, but better with institutions of higher learning, perhaps.
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Nah, the school just sues and the NCAA caves.

-jk
 
UrinalCake said:
If you haven't yet listened to these two episodes, drop whatever you're doing and do so right now.
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For posterity, starting a week from now, when the links to these podcasts won't be easy to find...

DBR: Podcast #631: Brendan Marks Interview Part 1 - Duke’s Rebuilt Roster

This episode focuses on Part 1 of our interview, in which Marks helps us understand more about how this roster was constructed. We start with the transfer portal and how Duke did in relation to the rest of the conference at filling the holes that the roster had. This is a pivotal year for Duke, and Marks believes that the portal additions will help Duke in so many ways.

We then focus on some of the freshmen coming in as well as where the main returnees - Tyrese Proctor and Caleb Foster - fit into the mix. This team will be built around Cooper Flagg, but you won’t want to miss what Brendan thinks of the potential starting 5 - competition may drive who gets some of these spots!
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YouTube link to Podcast #631:

 
DBR: Podcast #632: Brendan Marks Interview Part 2 - Reviewing The ACC’s Offseason

On Part 1, we focused on Duke’s rebuilt roster, and on Part 2 of our interview, we expand our scope to the other 17 teams in the ACC. Marks discusses how some of the teams did in the transfer portal, with some of the teams that got much better and some of the teams that he felt missed an opportunity to improve. We discuss some of UNC’s issues with recruiting a big man and how the changing landscape of NIL has affected how teams recruit new players. We finally end with some of the players coming back that could help their teams and which teams to watch as they try to rise to the top half of the conference standings next season.
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YouTube link to Podcast #632:

 
First of all, thanks to UrinalCake for starting this thread and for speaking so highly of these interviews. I had mentioned in some other threads that I thought Brendan's comments were worth listening to and am thrilled that others feel the same.

SkyBrickey said:
Marks also said that both Duke and UNC have very good NIL but it's not on par with the top SEC and Big12 schools. I seriously doubt Marks has full visibility on Duke's NIL deals. This is closely guarded information. So I hope he's wrong. We don't need to be tops in the nation but I think we need to be top 10ish to continue to field top 10ish teams. The Duke brand and success with OADs probably gives us a bit of a discount but how long will that hold up? We don't ever want to be where UNC was this offseason whiffing on guys they really needed to fill out their roster.
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Well... while it is true that there is not a lot of public discussion of the specifics of NIL deals (though it is happening a lot more than it did a couple years ago) I know for a fact that there are coaches and other people willing to speak to reporters OFF THE RECORD and give very specific details about this stuff. "Full visibility" might be a bit much, but I am very confident that Brendan knows -- at least in general terms -- what Duke and UNC are spending in total on NIL deals and likely knows the actual numbers being given to a fair number of players. Just because it is not discussed openly, that does not mean it is completely hidden from folks in the know.

nocilla said:
He also alluded to Duke being able negate some of the NIL disadvantage by being an established path to the NBA. So they can get guys like Flagg at a lower price because those guys are more concerned about their long term NBA earnings which Duke can prepare them for. They don’t need the best NIL deal for their one year of college, they need development.
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I really stressed this point in the post-interview discussion that Donald and I had at the end of episode 2. The no-brainer OAD prospects are not as concerned with maximizing their earnings the one year they are in college as they are pretty much certain to make enough off their NBA rookie deals to make the NIL deal not all that meaningful. Not saying Duke's network and rep for developing pros means they can get away with offering $500k less than another school, but if it comes down to a couple hundred grand, Duke has things it can offer that are more important than the $$$$.
 
That's fair JE. I just wonder if Marks or anyone truly knows how Duke's NIL compares to say a Kansas or a Baylor or an Auburn or ... It's not really in the schools' interest to let that information leak out. Too low and you might not make the short list of top recruits and transfers. Too high and your current players may start to feel underpaid.

Duke is absolutely at the pinnacle of HS recruiting and the transfer market. Our pieces haven't always fit together perfectly but when was the last time we missed on somebody we really wanted or needed? We've had top 5 recruiting classes for years now. Hopefully the tides don't shift to where the top 10 recruits start taking big deals with the football conferences.

I continue to believe Duke's sweet spot is 1-2 OADs each year plus 2-3 top 15-30 guys. I hope our NIL budget and unique Duke advantages will support this until the system gets reformed. The 2025 recruiting class will be interesting.
 
SkyBrickey said:
Duke is absolutely at the pinnacle of HS recruiting and the transfer market. Our pieces haven't always fit together perfectly but when was the last time we missed on somebody we really wanted or needed?
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Ernest Udeh Jr and Aziz Bandaogo (or any other center Duke may have pursued) in last year's portal?

I agree that Duke is at the pinnacle of high school recruiting, but in the transfer market, Duke has been at best a crafty alternative, using the portal to add deep reserves and the occasional rotation player/infrequent starter.

Incoming transfers to Duke (Source: Andrew Parrish's NCAA Transfer Tracker)

2020
Patrick Tapé (from Columbia)

2021
Theo John (from Marquette)
Bates Jones (from Davidson)

2022
Kale Catchings (from Harvard)
Jacob Grandison (from Illinois)
Max Johns (from Princeton)
Ryan Young (from Northwestern)

2023
Neal Begovich (from Stanford)

2024
Maliq Brown (from Syracuse)
Mason Gillis (from Purdue)
Sion James (from Tulane)
Cameron Sheffield (from Rice)

I would say that 2024 was a major step forward for Duke in valuing the portal enough to transform the roster rather than merely add to it, but that doesn't automatically make Duke a big player in the transfer market, much less its pinnacle.
 
Ok, that's fair that we flirted with adding a center last year but didn't pull the trigger. This year I'd argue we got exactly the guys we wanted.

Depending on how you define pinnacle, you might could argue that Arkansas or Louisville is at the top this year, but I don't think any of us would trade spots with them. I think Jon executed his plan perfectly. My point is we are at the top of our game in getting the high schoolers and transfers that we target.
 
SkyBrickey said:
Ok, that's fair that we flirted with adding a center last year but didn't pull the trigger. This year I'd argue we got exactly the guys we wanted.

Depending on how you define pinnacle, you might could argue that Arkansas or Louisville is at the top this year, but I don't think any of us would trade spots with them. I think Jon executed his plan perfectly.
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Kansas is the pinnacle of the transfer market. They get who they want, whether it's a power conference superstar (Michigan's Hunter Dickinson) or a desirable mid-major player (Towson's Nick Timberlake, who UConn really wanted, so they later "settled" on Cam Spencer). A few weeks ago they announced rising sophomore point guard Elmarko Jackson would be out with injury for 12 months, and they added a replacement (Mississippi State's Shakeel Moore) just 6 hours later. I've said it over and over: no one is more dangerous with an open scholarship than Bill Self.

If Kansas is the old money of the transfer market, then sure, Arkansas, Louisville, and Kentucky might be the nouveau riche. They had open rosters, new coaches, an influx of money, and a desire to make a big splash.

Others know the story better, but Duke tried to pull the trigger on Ernest Udeh, only there was an admissions/class credit issue. Aziz Bandaogo had already transferred once, and the NCAA ruled that a second transfer would require him to sit out a year; he transferred to Cincinnati and filed a review/appeal, and when the NCAA eventually relented, his season started around Thanksgiving.

I'm in agreement with Duke's handing of the portal in this offseason, as opposed to their inaction 12-14 months ago. Going back on topic, Brendan Marks had some very interesting things to say in Part 1 of the interview that seemed to confirm my suspicions about the 2023-2024 season (specifically the part about the impressions he got from Jai Lucas about the personnel they had going in).

I've said before that UNC's center problem in 2024 is striking because they witnessed Duke's center problem in 2023, made fun of it, and then proceeded to do the same thing. Hubert Davis inherited Armando Bacot as the center... much like Roy Williams, Bill Guthridge, and Dean Smith before him. Bacot was good in that role for a long time (and became the decoy this season that would allow RJ Davis to break through). But he was also a crutch for that team, and I think Coach Davis was trying hard, maybe too hard, to pursue a different, more NBA kind of center. It's ironic, but in retrospect, he should have prioritized Norchad Omier instead, essentially pressing the snooze button and having a Bacot-like player for one more season. It would have been a smarter move: Omier slides in at the 4 if they get one of the 7-footers they wanted, and Omier is the 5 if they don't. UNC is claiming that Ven-Allen Lubin is that 4/5 insurance policy for them, but he's not Omier.

In Part 2 of the interview, Brendan Marks is somewhat critical of UNC's portal activity but also kind of vague, and he regurgitates the party line about NIL spending and team chemistry, as if the only centers available in a transfer portal of over 2000 players were these big superstars who commanded $1.5 to $2 million each. Did the UNC coaching staff ever take the time to look at a big man who wasn't ranked on a 247 Sports shortlist, or were they really that lazy and negligent? Was Coach Davis trying to break away from the Bacot mold? And when that approach failed, did they call in a favor with departing Vanderbilt coach Jerry Stackhouse and get him to convince Lubin to enter the portal before the deadline (and long after Vandy hired Mark Byington)? I wish there were an opportunity to ask Brendan Marks some followup questions.
 
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