Conference Realignment

If the money is available, they might choose the Super League. Last month, I spoke with a senior administrative official in the P5 athletic department. He said that even the Big 10 and SEC aren't safe.

His take is that college football is increasing in popularity. The top programs know they are sacrificing significant revenues and continue to do so out of respect for natural rivalries and some allegiance to the past. But at some point, especially as college expansion, transfers, etc., change how people view the sport, he thinks they will want what they believe is their fair share. A super league operating on Saturday generates revenues more proportional to the league that operates on Sunday (and Monday and Thursday).

I'm not saying any of this is going to happen, but I thought his point of view was fascinating.
My guess is if they do this, the statement in red above will no longer be operative. They are messing with a recipe of passion that is not immune to losing it's appeal if it's messed with too much. Alabama LSU matters less if you take all the rest out of the conference......etc. The notion that you can just shed all the other teams and the interest will stay the same for the "big games" is not a slam dunk.......
 
My guess is if they do this, the statement in red above will no longer be operative. They are messing with a recipe of passion that is not immune to losing it's appeal if it's messed with too much. Alabama LSU matters less if you take all the rest out of the conference......etc. The notion that you can just shed all the other teams and the interest will stay the same for the "big games" is not a slam dunk.......
There is a serious tension between revenue maximization and the interest that generates that revenue. College football without the passion derived from student-athletes is just minor league football. Without some reasonable relationship between student and athlete the revenue gravy train will end the moment the NFL introduces a bunch of Saturday football.
 
My guess is if they do this, the statement in red above will no longer be operative. They are messing with a recipe of passion that is not immune to losing it's appeal if it's messed with too much. Alabama LSU matters less if you take all the rest out of the conference......etc. The notion that you can just shed all the other teams and the interest will stay the same for the "big games" is not a slam dunk.......

There is a serious tension between revenue maximization and the interest that generates that revenue. College football without the passion derived from student-athletes is just minor league football. Without some reasonable relationship between student and athlete the revenue gravy train will end the moment the NFL introduces a bunch of Saturday football.
I'm not so sure that interest and enthusiasm for college football is waning, or that its popularity is likely to decline and shift towards the NFL if the trend towards revenue maximization continues -- and I say this as a fan who warned repeatedly here that allowing players to be compensated would be a monumental mistake because it would inevitably spiral out of control and not only upset the already-teetering balance of power between the haves and have-nots, but create tensions among players on the same team. (Stay tuned for more of the latter to surface.)

I hear lots of fans say that they're losing interest in college sports now that NIL and the portal have effectively transformed players into free agents who leave for the pros or transfer from one school to another after a year or two in the program; and I can understand that sentiment. But I'm not seeing much evidence that the popularity of college sports is significantly declining. Even if some are turning away, it's clear that not everyone thinks alike or bases their entertainment preferences on the same factors.

For me, and I believe for many others like me, the passion to cheer for my school's teams is not tied to the career trajectories of individual players; it's connected to the team itself, and to the traditions, and to a lifelong sense of loyalty that springs from a spirit of belonging to a group that carries a sense of pride in a common identity acquired through shared experiences. I don't care anything about the NFL or the NBA or major league baseball -- and at this point I can say with assurance that I never will -- though I understand that others do, perhaps with equal passion.

Maybe it's different for me because I enjoy the good fortune of watching my college football in the Swamp and my college basketball in Cameron, two of the most adrenaline-inducing venues in college sports. But I get the sense that the passion felt by devoted college sports fans doesn't depend all that much on the size of the crowd or the volume of the noise. It comes from deep within. And it refuses to be denied.
 
I'm not so sure that interest and enthusiasm for college football is waning, or that its popularity is likely to decline and shift towards the NFL if the trend towards revenue maximization continues -- and I say this as a fan who warned repeatedly here that allowing players to be compensated would be a monumental mistake because it would inevitably spiral out of control and not only upset the already-teetering balance of power between the haves and have-nots, but create tensions among players on the same team. (Stay tuned for more of the latter to surface.)

I hear lots of fans say that they're losing interest in college sports now that NIL and the portal have effectively transformed players into free agents who leave for the pros or transfer from one school to another after a year or two in the program; and I can understand that sentiment. But I'm not seeing much evidence that the popularity of college sports is significantly declining. Even if some are turning away, it's clear that not everyone thinks alike or bases their entertainment preferences on the same factors.

For me, and I believe for many others like me, the passion to cheer for my school's teams is not tied to the career trajectories of individual players; it's connected to the team itself, and to the traditions, and to a lifelong sense of loyalty that springs from a spirit of belonging to a group that carries a sense of pride in a common identity acquired through shared experiences. I don't care anything about the NFL or the NBA or major league baseball -- and at this point I can say with assurance that I never will -- though I understand that others do, perhaps with equal passion.

Maybe it's different for me because I enjoy the good fortune of watching my college football in the Swamp and my college basketball in Cameron, two of the most adrenaline-inducing venues in college sports. But I get the sense that the passion felt by devoted college sports fans doesn't depend all that much on the size of the crowd or the volume of the noise. It comes from deep within. And it refuses to be denied.
I would suspect that many developed their collegiate loyalty due to a culture that promoted continuity and loyalty. The current NIL and transfer culture is relatively new and the long term results have yet to be seen. Personally, I have always took pride as a Duke fan in the elite academics of the school and its athletes. Each year that passes by that pride dissipates as it becomes obvious that players today show less interest in academics. It is still early in this current culture, but I do find myself being more interested in the NFL vs the college game than I have been in the past. I suppose time will tell if I end up completing losing interest in the college game and devote all my interest towards the NFL.
 
I'm not so sure that interest and enthusiasm for college football is waning, or that its popularity is likely to decline and shift towards the NFL if the trend towards revenue maximization continues -- and I say this as a fan who warned repeatedly here that allowing players to be compensated would be a monumental mistake because it would inevitably spiral out of control and not only upset the already-teetering balance of power between the haves and have-nots, but create tensions among players on the same team. (Stay tuned for more of the latter to surface.)
A number of long time fans are drifting away and losing their level of interest.....without a doubt....however, at this moment - it's not a NET wane. With the novelty of the roster turn over every year and the new conference alignments - there is a bit of a surge in interest....even as some fans are losing their level of interest. This includes those fans who now think they are part of the program by donating to NIL funds. And of course now we can gamble on every single facet of the game, including in real time....there is a whole new audience niche who care nothing about the teams per se. And yet, they are counted as eyeballs.

I think as the passion dissipates, the NIL investors get poor returns for a few years, and the disparity between two conferences and everyone else widens, and the non playoff bowl games become nothing but early spring training scrimmages with patchwork rosters.....we will see a shrink of the sport........and I say "think" with a 60-40 level of confidence.
 
I'm not so sure that interest and enthusiasm for college football is waning, or that its popularity is likely to decline and shift towards the NFL if the trend towards revenue maximization continues -- and I say this as a fan who warned repeatedly here that allowing players to be compensated would be a monumental mistake because it would inevitably spiral out of control and not only upset the already-teetering balance of power between the haves and have-nots, but create tensions among players on the same team. (Stay tuned for more of the latter to surface.)

I hear lots of fans say that they're losing interest in college sports now that NIL and the portal have effectively transformed players into free agents who leave for the pros or transfer from one school to another after a year or two in the program; and I can understand that sentiment. But I'm not seeing much evidence that the popularity of college sports is significantly declining. Even if some are turning away, it's clear that not everyone thinks alike or bases their entertainment preferences on the same factors.

For me, and I believe for many others like me, the passion to cheer for my school's teams is not tied to the career trajectories of individual players; it's connected to the team itself, and to the traditions, and to a lifelong sense of loyalty that springs from a spirit of belonging to a group that carries a sense of pride in a common identity acquired through shared experiences. I don't care anything about the NFL or the NBA or major league baseball -- and at this point I can say with assurance that I never will -- though I understand that others do, perhaps with equal passion.

Maybe it's different for me because I enjoy the good fortune of watching my college football in the Swamp and my college basketball in Cameron, two of the most adrenaline-inducing venues in college sports. But I get the sense that the passion felt by devoted college sports fans doesn't depend all that much on the size of the crowd or the volume of the noise. It comes from deep within. And it refuses to be denied.
You may be right, I don't know. My thinking is that what separates college football and basketball from minor league baseball is their association with schools that people care about in ways they don't feel about various cities and towns. I have always assumed that this is because the participating athletes are also students at those schools and are perceived as sharing in those same passions. Once the athletes are understood to be simply guns hired by schools to wear their jerseys, with little or no sense of loyalty or relationship to the school's academic mission, I'm honestly at a loss to understand why students or alums should care all that much, but perhaps I'm just mistaken or in a small minority.
 
I mean, Palo Alto and Berkeley are not exactly on the Atlantic
Let's not quibble over small like oceans.

After all if you travel west long enough you end up east, then west, then east, then... Makes my head spin.



And that's all for now. I'm off to my OLLI instructors' welcome coffee. This term I'm teaching geography. :)
 
A number of long time fans are drifting away and losing their level of interest.....without a doubt....however, at this moment - it's not a NET wane. With the novelty of the roster turn over every year and the new conference alignments - there is a bit of a surge in interest....even as some fans are losing their level of interest. This includes those fans who now think they are part of the program by donating to NIL funds. And of course now we can gamble on every single facet of the game, including in real time....there is a whole new audience niche who care nothing about the teams per se. And yet, they are counted as eyeballs.

I think as the passion dissipates, the NIL investors get poor returns for a few years, and the disparity between two conferences and everyone else widens, and the non playoff bowl games become nothing but early spring training scrimmages with patchwork rosters.....we will see a shrink of the sport........and I say "think" with a 60-40 level of confidence.

I mostly agree with this take (especially when not shouted at everyone ;)).

I also think similarly at 60-40 confidence level.

The main reason I could see this persisting for quite some time is the uncertainty and speed of the change almost demands constant attention / eyeballs. It almost feels like people want to watch because it's such a cluster. FSU on the outs last year was a cluster. Now Alabama on the outs is a cluster. They'll change the rules again. There will be another cluster. NIL will change...cluster. Team turnover pisses people off until it pleases the same people (read: Maalik to Darian; Elko to Manny, just in our own experience let alone everyone else's).

It's almost like reality TV. It's the dumbest thing on earth. But it's entertaining and has a large audience.

- Chillin
 
I mostly agree with this take (especially when not shouted at everyone ;)).
I also think similarly at 60-40 confidence level.

The main reason I could see this persisting for quite some time is the uncertainty and speed of the change almost demands constant attention / eyeballs. It almost feels like people want to watch because it's such a cluster. FSU on the outs last year was a cluster. Now Alabama on the outs is a cluster. They'll change the rules again. There will be another cluster. NIL will change...cluster. Team turnover pisses people off until it pleases the same people (read: Maalik to Darian; Elko to Manny, just in our own experience let alone everyone else's).

It's almost like reality TV. It's the dumbest thing on earth. But it's entertaining and has a large audience.

- Chillin
I find zero to disagree with here........
What was stated a couple years ago around here - was that "everything is different" - which is true....but we could not have predicted what has transpired. FSU from deserving of a playoff spot to one of the worst teams in the nation in a few months? Bama missing the playoffs and the SEC suddenly realizing (what they should have seen coming) that having every single big time program NOT in the Big Ten is not a good thing - and this realization suddenly slamming the breaks on conference re-alignment everywhere.

And then there's this that I am sensing....that as the ACC is seemingly imploding....it seems in a weird way to allow Duke some perceived "Notre Dame" indy status as a boutique program.....that seems to be not only allowing Jon to defy gravity....but seems to be seeping over into Manny's program as well..... The ACC imploding, at least in perceived relevance...may actually help Duke and not help the cheats, FSU, Clemson so much.

Everything is different. Every. Single. Thing. YMMV.
 
Sadly, that can describe a decent percentage of college grads too.
I am always stunned at the ignorance of geography that I see around me. I thank the Lord for Miss Carrie Babb who I had for 7th grade geography. She taught such that I still remember her teachings and she infused a lifelong interest in and desire to know more about geography and the greater world around me.
 
I am always stunned at the ignorance of geography that I see around me. I thank the Lord for Miss Carrie Babb who I had for 7th grade geography. She taught such that I still remember her teachings and she infused a lifelong interest in and desire to know more about geography and the greater world around me.
Always thought travel was maybe the best way to learn, simply by doing it. Geography is maybe the main context under which we all exist.....but without getting too "woo woo" - it's why it always amused me when people wrung their hands over athletes "missing class" by going to away games or bowl games or tournament games. I'm thinking....they're learning more simply by traveling about the real world than is possible in a classroom....in a number of ways. Not that classroom time is not important...it is....but "getting out there" is a whole new experience in real life context.......that cannot be duplicated in any other way. Now, back to FB and apologies for semi thread jack...
 
I can you tell that the prevailing view among Big 10 powers that be, at least for the time being, is that there is real value in having the ACC and Big 12 as viable, if somewhat lesser, partners under the new playoff structure and TV environment.

If the ACC and Big 12 implode and their teams effectively scatter and fold.. (some may glom on to the SEC or B1G) The big boys being chock full of "brand" name teams beating each others brains in. 6 and 6 teams aren't sexy, I don't care who you play on your schedule. And neither do the CFP. They are FAR more interested in selling and marketing desirable games to watch, than ANY notion of finding the best team and crowning them champion.

I'm not sure why the any Conference hasn't seriously considered adding a Canadian (Vanier Cup) school for an international audience.

If just the SEC and B1G remain in their current configuration, I think eventually the top of the SEC becomes the Harlem Globetrotters to the B1Gs Washington Generals and that more or less parallels the thinking of luvdahops above...

In order for the B1G not to become the perpetual runner-up to the SEC, I think they would be wise to consider some type of partial merger (strongly aligned) partnership with the ACC that involve the better more profitable teams on a regular basis. The B1G needs access to the Southern athlete. (Playing in front of grandma and cousins matter)

If the money is available, they might choose the Super League. Last month, I spoke with a senior administrative official in the P5 athletic department. He said that even the Big 10 and SEC aren't safe.

He had an interesting point: The revenue of the top college football teams is artificially constrained. A typical Alabama football game draws roughly 40-50% of the TV viewership of an average NFL game, while an Alabama vs. Georgia game draws nearly 80% of the TV viewership typical NFL game.

His conclusion. There are ~25 teams that can draw huge audiences regularly. If they were to be in their own league and marketed as a super league, they could make $100M+ more annually. It's not NFL money but a ratio more akin to the audience they generate. As far as records go, teams would lose more, just like NFL teams do. But ultimately would be judged by their ability to make and have success in the playoffs.

Yeah, here's the thing for me. I'm a Duke fan.
If Duke isn't invited to the party and has no path forward I'm a LOT less interested in college sport.
I'll still root and wish them well. But, I that point, I have no reason to continue to watch.

I'll watch the ACC CFP games and the bulk of the ACC bowl games. But otherwise, I have no interest in feeding the beast.

And at the end of the day, the only thing I can control here is what sports I consume.
I'm not watching any SEC teams I can easily avoid.
 
I agree with folks who believe we're going to see little movement for awhile as the dust settles on recent changes. I do think we will see changes in the playoff guidelines next season, as clearly the SEC and B1G were not enthused about Boise and ASU getting byes. I think they will seek to have the guidelines adjusted so that those byes go to the 4 top ranked teams.

All that aside, what would an ideal structure look like for D1 FBS football? Here's my stab at it... There are 134 D1 FBS programs, so why not create an upper tier of 67 teams and a lower tier of 67 teams and each tier ends their season with a 16-team playoff to determine a champion? You can divide each tier into 4 conferences of 16/17 teams. At the end of the season, the worst 4 teams in the upper tier get relegated to the lower tier and the 4 semifinalists from the lower tier are promoted to the upper tier in their place. Keeps the money flowing and creates a path for lower tier teams to jump into the upper tier.
 
I am always stunned at the ignorance of geography that I see around me. I thank the Lord for Miss Carrie Babb who I had for 7th grade geography. She taught such that I still remember her teachings and she infused a lifelong interest in and desire to know more about geography and the greater world around me.
when we have visited California from Vermont (a couple dozen times) we have come to accept, when making small talk with waitpersons "where you folks from?", they generally have not the foggiest notion of where Vermont is...some ask is it near Virginia under the theory of the V states hanging out together...it is a bit disturbing, I guess kids don't have to looks at the map of the U.S. every day in school, and recite capitals...
 
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