It is harder and harder to figure out rosters, recruiting, and everything in the current environment for college basketball. The roster for the 2024-25 season appears mostly set. The staff seems to have turned their attention to the Class of 2025 based on the recent offer to top HS prospect AJ Dybantsa. I thought this would be a good time to try to wrap my head around recruiting for the Class of 2025. Let's start with what might happen to the current roster next April:
The Current Roster
Definitely gone: Cooper Flagg, Mason Gillis, Sion James, and Khaman Maluach
Probably gone: Tyrese Proctor
No clue what will happen: Maliq Brown and Caleb Foster
Maybe returning: Isaiah Evans, Darren Harris, Kon Knueppel, and Patrick Ngongba
The top freshmen listed in the definitely gone group should elicit little debate. They are going to get drafted in the 2025 NBA Draft. James and Gillis will exhaust their eligibility and one or both might also try to get drafted as a 3-and-D or role player.
Tyrese Proctor is an interesting case. He is only 3 1/2 months older than Caleb Foster and will be entering his 3rd year as a starter. His career has been a little up and down. This reminds me of another younger player that had an uneven first two years before becoming a 1st round NBA Draft pick, Wendell Moore, Jr. Hopefully Proctor ends his college career in the Final Four (or, better yet, the National Title Game) like Moore did. If he has a solid draft position this time next year, he'll be gone. You could say the same about Caleb Foster, I suppose. My one question for him is about his role on the team. Proctor will probably be the primary ball handler next year with Foster serving as a the starting scoring guard and backup primary guard. Foster could show that his 40% 3-point shooting from his freshman season is no fluke and add a more well-rounded and consistent scoring display to move into the 2025 Draft. However, he is not the most explosively athletic guard and seems to lack an elite skill outside of the jump shot. In an ideal world, it would do him well to slide over to the primary PG role as a junior to show that he can run a team. But we don't live in an ideal world anymore. It's impossible to predict how this will all play out.
Maliq Brown is another interesting case. He has two years remaining, same as Proctor. In an ideal world, he would stay for two years or however long it takes for him to show that he can shoot the ball to go along with the rest of his game. There are a ton of players that are "a jump shot away from the NBA." Harrison Ingram was one of those players last year. It does happen. Maybe that happens for Brown? Maybe not. Either way, he's a valuable and versatile player that would be welcome at Duke as long as he wants to be there.
That leaves us with the other incoming freshmen. There are three wings that can all shoot the ball between Evans, Knueppel, and Harris. The other is big man Ngongba (who maybe can also shoot?). Of that group, Ngongba might be the most likely to stay as he has a history of injury in high school and would be the presumptive starting C on the team in 2025-26. One or two of the wings could also slide into starting roles as sophomores. Evans is the highest-rated of this group. He seems to lack the size and strength that he will need to compete in college, let alone the NBA. Then again, "Baby Ingram's" namesake was also slight of build but possessed a wiry strength. Knieppel lacks the footspeed and also needs to work on his body to get to the point of being a legit NBA prospect. Harris might be the best shooter amongst the group but lacks elite athleticism. I've also rarely seen him handle the ball long enough to show that he can operate with the ball in his hands. Who knows what the freshmen fours' defense will look like. In that ideal world I keep mentioning, all 4 would be sophomores at Duke. In the real world, how likely will that be?
High School Prospects
Hardly anyone in the Class of 2025 has committed yet. The Duke coaching staff made several offers in 2024 before shutting things down (I'll note that this is from my outside perspective) during the season. They have recently made an offer to top prospect AJ Dybantsa and will most likely refine their list of targets during the summer and fall of 2025. I feel confident that the coaching staff is continuing to prioritize a couple of players. After that, it gets murky. I'll try to group these players into two tiers based on my own view.
The primary targets:
AJ Dybantsa, 6'8" SF (unanimous #1 player in the class by 247, ESPN, On3, and Rivals)
Cameron Boozer, 6'9" PF (unanimous #2)
Cayden Boozer, 6'3" G (consensus #16)
Other offers:
Caleb Wilson, 6'9" PF (consensus #4)
Koa Peat, 6'8" PF (unanimous #5)
Meleek Thomas, 6'3" G (consensus #6)
Jalen Haralson, 6'6" SF (consensus #11)
Brayden Burries, 6'4" G (consensus #14)
Nate Ament, 6'9" SF (consensus #16)
It's hard for me to see any broad trends here. Duke could be looking for two starting guards for the 2025-26 season if both Proctor and Foster leave. Yet, they have only offered Cayden Boozer, Thomas, and Burries thus far. None of those three strike me as lead guards. They are a lot like the guards that Scheyer and staff have been recruiting, capable of being on or off the ball. Perhaps they expect Foster to be the starting PG with Boozer and/or Thomas there to be off the ball. Or maybe they think Isaiah Evans will be more of a guard than a wing in college. Or they could look to the portal to fill out a hole that becomes apparent next spring. I think the safest bet is that the coaching staff will go as hard as they can after the primary targets and then figure things out after that. If they land Dybansta and the Boozer twins, that might force out Maliq Brown and at least one of the Class of 2024 wings. If you can land those players, I think you do it.
The main thing I see is a cloudy forecast. There will almost certainly be more offers coming soon and then scheduled visits. That will tip the hand of the direction that recruiting for the Class of 2025 will go.
