2024-25 NET/Bracketology Thread

My favorite part of this visual is that the gap between Maliq and guys like Mark Sears and Kadary Richmond (the best players on other top teams) is less than the gap between Coop and Broome. National player of the year race, my [wanker].
And yet Sporting News gave it to Broome
 
AAC: Anyone but Memphis
*A-10: Not sure if VCU will make it as an at large, but they're the only team with a chance
Big East: Butler, DePaul, Georgetown, Providence, Seton Hall, Villanova
Big Ten: Iowa, Minnesota, Northwestern, Rutgers, USC
*Big West: Not sure UC San Diego will make it as an at large, but they're the only one with a chance
Big XII: Cincinnati, Colorado, Kansas State, UCF
Mountain West: Air Force, Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, Nevada, San Jose State, UNLV, Wyoming
SEC: LSU, South Carolina, Texas
Here's some specific games to focus on:

Things that are bad for UNC
Big East
: Xavier to beat Marquette tomorrow
SEC: Arkansas to beat S. Carolina today.
Texas to beat Vandy today and Texas A&M tomorrow.
Oklahoma to beat Georgia today.
BIG: Indiana to beat Oregon tomorrow (but likely still gets in anyway)
Ohio St. to beat Iowa today (probably enough to get them in) and Illinois tomorrow
Big 12: West Va. and Baylor are both likely safely in, but it would still be nice for them to beat TCU and Kansas St. today
MWC: Boise St. to beat San Diego St. tomorrow and maybe New Mexico Friday.
Utah St. to beat UNLV tomorrow
Colorado St. to beat Nevada tomorrow and Utah St. Friday
AAC: Someone other than Memphis to win.
A10: Dayton to beat VCU by 1 point in double overtime in the final on Sunday.
Other: UC Irvine to beat UCSD by 1 point in triple overtime in the Big West Final on Saturday
 
Here's some specific games to focus on:

Things that are bad for UNC
Big East
: Xavier to beat Marquette tomorrow
SEC: Arkansas to beat S. Carolina today.
Texas to beat Vandy today and Texas A&M tomorrow.
Oklahoma to beat Georgia today.
BIG: Indiana to beat Oregon tomorrow (but likely still gets in anyway)
Ohio St. to beat Iowa today (probably enough to get them in) and Illinois tomorrow
Big 12: West Va. and Baylor are both likely safely in, but it would still be nice for them to beat TCU and Kansas St. today
MWC: Boise St. to beat San Diego St. tomorrow and maybe New Mexico Friday.
Utah St. to beat UNLV tomorrow
Colorado St. to beat Nevada tomorrow and Utah St. Friday
AAC: Someone other than Memphis to win.
A10: Dayton to beat VCU by 1 point in double overtime in the final on Sunday.
Other: UC Irvine to beat UCSD by 1 point in triple overtime in the Big West Final on Saturday
Good call on the A10 and Big West!

Dare the committee to punish VCU and UC San Diego after that.
 
Great analysis, as usual Kedsy! Though I think the data doesn't prove no advantage to being overseeded. I think that could be shown by comparing how, say, 2-line overseeded #6s compare to a cohort of properly seeded 8s (with the analysis extended across seed lines). Said another way, an overseeded team might lose even more often % wise had they been properly seeded to begin with (and therefore playing tougher competition).
It's possible. I have the raw info (at least from 2002 to 2023) and can probably run those numbers at some point.
 
I assume they are referring to the rule of avoiding regular season rematches, where possible. See below from the NCAA's bracketing rules. However, if Maine were a 16 seed as you imply, the bolded consideration would not technically apply, since that would be a "first round" game. That said, I could see the committee wanting to have us play a different 16 seed, other things being relatively equal, than one we already played in the regular season.


Additional Considerations
1. If possible, rematches of regular-season games should be avoided in the second and third rounds.
2. If possible, rematches of previous years’ tournament games should be avoided in the second and third rounds.
3. If possible, after examining the previous five years‟ brackets, teams or conferences will not be moved out of its natural region or geographic area an inordinate number of times.
Slight correction: The current bracketing principles can be found here. The document you referenced is from when the First Four was called the first round and so the second and third rounds were the rounds of 64 and 32, respectively. The current principle relating to this point is:

1. If possible, rematches of non-conference regular-season games should be avoided in the First Four and first round. As a secondary consideration, the committee will attempt to avoid potential rematches from non-conference regular-season games in the second round.
 
Here's some specific games to focus on:

Things that are bad for UNC
Big East
: Xavier to beat Marquette tomorrow
SEC: Arkansas to beat S. Carolina today.
Texas to beat Vandy today and Texas A&M tomorrow.
Oklahoma to beat Georgia today.
BIG: Indiana to beat Oregon tomorrow (but likely still gets in anyway)
Ohio St. to beat Iowa today (probably enough to get them in) and Illinois tomorrow
Big 12: West Va. and Baylor are both likely safely in, but it would still be nice for them to beat TCU and Kansas St. today
MWC: Boise St. to beat San Diego St. tomorrow and maybe New Mexico Friday.
Utah St. to beat UNLV tomorrow
Colorado St. to beat Nevada tomorrow and Utah St. Friday
AAC: Someone other than Memphis to win.
A10: Dayton to beat VCU by 1 point in double overtime in the final on Sunday.
Other: UC Irvine to beat UCSD by 1 point in triple overtime in the Big West Final on Saturday
Thanks for this Nugget... I usually do this each year for Duke's seeding, but given how set that seems to be (something is coming on the front page from me soon summarizing my series of posts over the past few days), but this Champ Week it seems like our rooting interests are best focused elsewhere ;)
 
It's possible. I have the raw info (at least from 2002 to 2023) and can probably run those numbers at some point.
This may (or may) not be helpful.

Here is the percentage of 8/9 seeds who advanced to each round according to whether they were under-seeded, over-seeded, or properly-seeded* based on KenPom's pre-tourney ratings.

GroupNR32S16E8FFF2ChampAvg Wins
Under-seeded4250%12%5%5%2%0%0.74
Properly-seeded4947%10%8%4%2%0%0.71
Over-seeded9353%5%2%1%1%0%0.62

There isn't much difference for 8/9 seeds. Over seeded teams appear to perform slightly worse, but I doubt that the difference is statistically significant.

If you look at 4/5 seeds, under- and properly-seeded teams perform better than over-seeded teams. I didn't run a statistical significance test, but I suspect that the result would be statistically significant.

GroupNR32S16E8FFF2ChampAvg Wins
Under-seeded4073%48%15%10%5%3%1.53
Properly-seeded9375%51%16%11%3%0%1.56
Over-seeded5153%22%4%2%0%0%0.80

Kaplan-Meier plots are used in medical research to visually depict "survival" probability over time. Here's a Kaplan-Meier plot of NCAA tournament survival for 4/5 seeds. The orange and blue lines essentially overlap, but survival of over-seeded teams is much lower.

Kaplan Meier NCAA 4-5 seeds.jpg


*Under seeded = 8 seeds ranked 1-24 by KenPom, 9 seeds ranked 1-28, 4 seeds ranked 1-8, 5 seeds ranked 1-12
Properly seeded = 8 seeds ranked 25-36 by KP, 9 seeds ranked 29-40, 4 seeds ranked 9-20, 5 seeds ranked 13-24
Over seeded = 8 seeds ranked 37+ by KP, 9 seeds ranked 41+, 4 seeds ranked 21+, 5 seeds ranked 25+

Note: some of this was done with manual copy/paste, so errors are possible (likely).
 
Hogs blew a 20 point second half lead, but looks like they're going to pull it out. Hogs up 4 with the ball, 8 seconds left.
And this after they already nearly pissed away their tourney chances by losing big at South Carolina a week and a half ago.

They look like a First Four team and would be very well-served finding a way to beat Ole Miss tomorrow.
 
And this after they already nearly pissed away their tourney chances by losing big at South Carolina a week and a half ago.

They look like a First Four team and would be very well-served finding a way to beat Ole Miss tomorrow.
Bracket Matrix has them as a 10 and thus outside of the first four. I think the danger for Arkansas was playing themselves out of the tournament, which they could really only do by losing to SCAR. I doubt they get punished for losing to a good Ole Miss team, although a win would be good insurance against bid stealers and hot streaks by other bubble teams.

Arkansas has been snakebit with injuries this year and is playing with basically just 7 guys at the moment. Their two best players, Boogie Fland and Adou Thiero, are both out (Thiero might make it back for the tournament, but Fland is likely done for the year). Certainly some criticism for Cal, but they've had some bad luck.
 
Here's some specific games to focus on:

Things that are bad for UNC
Big East
: Xavier to beat Marquette tomorrow
SEC: Arkansas to beat S. Carolina today.
Texas to beat Vandy today and Texas A&M tomorrow.
Oklahoma to beat Georgia today.
BIG: Indiana to beat Oregon tomorrow (but likely still gets in anyway)
Ohio St. to beat Iowa today (probably enough to get them in) and Illinois tomorrow
Big 12: West Va. and Baylor are both likely safely in, but it would still be nice for them to beat TCU and Kansas St. today
MWC: Boise St. to beat San Diego St. tomorrow and maybe New Mexico Friday.
Utah St. to beat UNLV tomorrow
Colorado St. to beat Nevada tomorrow and Utah St. Friday
AAC: Someone other than Memphis to win.
A10: Dayton to beat VCU by 1 point in double overtime in the final on Sunday.
Other: UC Irvine to beat UCSD by 1 point in triple overtime in the Big West Final on Saturday
16 seed ( Torvik 89) Colorado 67- 8th (Torvik 33) seed West Virginia 60

Yikes
 
Back
Top