2024-2025 Men’s Basketball Season General Discussion

Chicago 1995 said:
Average number of losses for #1 seeds the last five years: 4.3
Average number of losses for #2 seeds the last five years: 6.55

Auburn would be a big feather in our cap, but it doesn't foreclose anything. Reduce the margin for error? Sure. Foreclose? Nope.

And that late February game against Illinois, I think, is going to end up being a chance for a awfully good win later in the year. More of a chance to turn the committee's eye than Kentucky in November.
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and then UNC last year with 7 losses. barf.

Either way, an equally lackluster OOC ACC, in which they took 3 losses (the committee seems to NGAF about conerence tounrnaments anymore)

They had one good win over tennessee, and one decent win over oklahome.. the rest of their OOC was garbage.

That said, if we *don't* beat auburn, our OOC will be decidedly worse than their from a w/l perspective....and we don't have the opportunity to beat ourselves in conference...and nobody this year is as strong as we or the heels were last year (except us).

So *if* we don't beat auburn, I think we have a lootttt of work to do....probably looking at like 2 losses in conference....four losses in a weak conference without a single top 10 win is not a good look for a one seed.

tl;dr: I don't think the projected 25-6 record is enough without a win over auburn, or a meteoric rise in UNC/illinois allowing for more opportunities for signature wins.
 
rsvman said:
Agree. They are used to being 12-0 or 13-0 to start the season, but we usually didn't have this many tough games in the early season, and K always had his teams uber-prepared for early season games (unfortunately, many of those teams cooled down the stretch).

I'm ok with a tough early schedule with a few losses if it means learning a few things that will help in the future and if the team gets better, rather than worse, through the course of the season.
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We haven't won our first 12 games (and it was actually the first 14) since the 2014-15 season. A decade ago.
 
Hate to interrupt a robust conversation about March Madness seeding in December but I wanted folks to see this.

Donald and I interviewed Jordan Brenner on Sunday. He’s a super smart college basketball journalist who used to write for ESPN and now does the same for The Athletic. He’s also someone who has closely followed Duke for years and has developed an interesting relationship with Jon Scheyer. He has some fascinating things to say about this year’s team… which he thinks is the best of the Scheyer era.

Have a listen — https://cms.megaphone.fm/channel/RRTET7320327183?selected=RRTET3105168313
 
Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 said:
It depends on how things shake down in other conferences too. If two teams from the SEC separate themselves as excellent and split their games, the top get more complicated than if one team runs the table.
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Torvik's TourneyCast (which as best I can tell is his simulation of the full season 10,000 times based on his current adjusted efficiency ratings) does suggest that if Duke performs up to its computer ratings for the full season (obviously a big if), that the combination of that plus the strong teams at the top of the SEC and Big 12 likely knocking off one another somewhat, and the Big 10 having many very good but no great teams, means that Duke would still have a reasonable chance at earning a 1 or 2 seed.

But, it starts with beating Auburn.

https://barttorvik.com/tourneycast.php

Torvik TourneyCast (10,000 simulations of the season)
1 Auburn – 68% chance of 1 seed, avg. seed 1.4
2 Tennessee – 56% chance of 1 seed, avg. seed 1.7
3 Kansas – 43% chance of 1 seed, avg. seed 2
4 Duke – 32% chance of 1 seed, avg. seed 2.3
5 Alabama – 32% chance of 1 seed, avg. seed 2.5
6 Kentucky – 31% chance of 1 seed, avg. seed 2.5
7 Gonzaga – 29% chance of 1 seed, avg. seed 2.6
8 Houston – 27% chance of 1 seed, avg. seed 2.6
9 Iowa St. – 19% chance of 1 seed, avg. seed 3.2
10 Marquette – 14% chance of 1 seed, avg. seed 3.4
11 Illinois – 16% chance of 1 seed, avg. seed 3.4
12 Purdue – 9% chance of 1 seed, avg. seed 3.5
13 Florida – 11% chance of 1 seed, avg. seed 3.7
14 Cincy – 5% chance of 1 seed, avg. seed 4.7
15 Oregon – 1% chance of 1 seed, avg. seed 5
16 Pitt – 2% chance of 1 seed, avg. seed 5.1
17 N. Carolina- 2% chance of 1 seed, avg. seed 5.2
18 UCLA – 2% chance of 1 seed, avg. seed 5.3
19 Ohio St. – 1% chance of 1 seed, avg. seed 5.4
20 Baylor – 1% chance of 1 seed, avg. seed 5.6
 
tommy said:
Ah. It was the format of the event that caused his team to stink it up and lose 3 straight against unranked opponents.

Sheesh what a sore loser this guy is. A tower of strength and an example for young people of how to face adversity, he is not.
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I have enormous respect for the Hurley family and their stature in the basketball world. Through Bob Hurley, Sr.'s legendary career that set the standard for high school basketball coaches, and Bobby's record as a two-time National Champion and all-time assists leader at Duke, they established an enduring legacy of courage, character, and toughness. For Danny Hurley to declare now that he will never let his team compete in another multi-team event is, IMO, a complete affront to that proud family legacy.

I recall when Bobby was a freshman, and he had an annoying -- and embarrassing -- tendency to exhibit momentary fits of petulance and frustration when the calls or the breaks went against him. Coach K had the staff put together a "lowlights" video of those moments and then made Bobby watch his puerile, pouty misconduct. Not surprisingly, Bobby's response was to redirect his anger into a positive force by focusing his energy on winning the game by playing through the adversity rather than letting himself be derailed by it. Bobby Hurley became the very personification of a player who would never show fear, never shy away from a challenge, and never let an occasional failure affect his fierce determination to succeed.

Danny Hurley may be a superb tactician and game manager; and he may ultimately win more championships as a coach than the rest of the Hurleys combined. But IMO, he isn't showing the kind of courage, character, and toughness that made his father and his brother worthy of admiration and respect.
 
Stray Gator said:
I recall when Bobby was a freshman, and he had an annoying -- and embarrassing -- tendency to exhibit momentary fits of petulance and frustration when the calls or the breaks went against him. Coach K had the staff put together a "lowlights" video of those moments and then made Bobby watch his puerile, pouty misconduct. Not surprisingly, Bobby's response was to redirect his anger into a positive force by focusing his energy on winning the game by playing through the adversity rather than letting himself be derailed by it. Bobby Hurley became the very personification of a player who would never show fear, never shy away from a challenge, and never let an occasional failure affect his fierce determination to succeed.

Danny Hurley may be a superb tactician and game manager; and he may ultimately win more championships as a coach than the rest of the Hurleys combined. But IMO, he isn't showing the kind of courage, character, and toughness that made his father and his brother worthy of admiration and respect.
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Danny has some serious inner demons that he's been very public about. It doesn't excuse the display he put on in Maui...he needs to do better....but this post seems to take a shot at his mental issues....which is not cool either.

There is an argument that if said issues are descructive enough, then he might not be fit to be a leader. He's riding that line pretty darn close in my mind right now...and I'm glad he's someone else's coach.
 
uh_no said:
Danny has some serious inner demons that he's been very public about. It doesn't excuse the display he put on in Maui...he needs to do better....but this post seems to take a shot at his mental issues....which is not cool either.

There is an argument that if said issues are descructive enough, then he might not be fit to be a leader. He's riding that line pretty darn close in my mind right now...and I'm glad he's someone else's coach.
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I don't know where you discern any language in my message that "takes a shot at his mental issues," but that wasn't my intent. My point is simply that he's acting alike a whiny brat who's still butthurt that his team lost three games they expected to win in a holiday tournament; and instead of reacting like I expect his brother or his Dad would do as coaches by accepting responsibility and resolving that he and his team are determined to overcome that disappointing performance going forward, he's sending a message to his players and fans that makes him seem afraid of the challenge. I don't see that, or mean to suggest, that it's a mental issue. To me, it's more a maturity issue.
 
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Stray Gator said:
I don't know where you discern any language in my message that "takes a shot at his mental issues," but that wasn't my intent. My point is simply that he's acting alike a whiny brat who's still butthurt that his team lost three games they expected to win in a holiday tournament; and instead of reacting like I expect his brother or his Dad would do as coaches by accepting responsibility and resolving that he and his team are determined to overcome that disappointing performance going forward, he's sending a message to his players and fans that makes him seem afraid of the challenge. I don't see that, or mean to suggest, that it's a mental issue. To me, it's more a maturity issue.
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I think it's more than that... he clearly said he will not play in such an MTE again... ever... as long as he is at uconn. The entire opposite of Coach K saying that they will never forget that loss to VA...
 
uh_no said:
Danny has some serious inner demons that he's been very public about. It doesn't excuse the display he put on in Maui...he needs to do better....but this post seems to take a shot at his mental issues....which is not cool either.

There is an argument that if said issues are descructive enough, then he might not be fit to be a leader. He's riding that line pretty darn close in my mind right now...and I'm glad he's someone else's coach.
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Can you imagine how many fuses he’d blow if he found out that some randos on a Duke message board was calling him “Danny”?
 
Stray Gator said:
I don't know where you discern any language in my message that "takes a shot at his mental issues," but that wasn't my intent. My point is simply that he's acting alike a whiny brat who's still butthurt that his team lost three games they expected to win in a holiday tournament; and instead of reacting like I expect his brother or his Dad would do as coaches by accepting responsibility and resolving that he and his team are determined to overcome that disappointing performance going forward, he's sending a message to his players and fans that makes him seem afraid of the challenge. I don't see that, or mean to suggest, that it's a mental issue. To me, it's more a maturity issue.
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Agreed. And compare that to Bobby Hurley when he lost to Duke by a wide margin earlier this season
"Hat's off to where (the Blue Devils) are," Hurley said, "and oh s--- about where we are."

He takes accountability, credits where credit is due.
 
I am surprised Danny Hurley didn't grouse and complain about 3-game MTEs in 2022 when his team beat Oregon, Iowa St, and Okie St to win the Phil Knight invitational.

And I don't recall him being too upset in 2021 when they beat Auburn and VCU (but lost to Mich St) in the 3-game Battle for Atlantis.

And then there was the 2019 Charleston Classic where Hurley and the Huskies beat Buffalo and Miami but had a loss to Xavier. Ole Danny Boy didn't seem to be crying about how terrible these 3-game MTEs are that time.

He's coming across as such a cry baby and poor loser. You have ruled the college basketball world for 2 years, maybe show a little class when all the breaks are going your way, huh?
 
JasonEvans said:
Hate to interrupt a robust conversation about March Madness seeding in December but I wanted folks to see this.

Donald and I interviewed Jordan Brenner on Sunday. He’s a super smart college basketball journalist who used to write for ESPN and now does the same for The Athletic. He’s also someone who has closely followed Duke for years and has developed an interesting relationship with Jon Scheyer. He has some fascinating things to say about this year’s team… which he thinks is the best of the Scheyer era.

Have a listen — https://cms.megaphone.fm/channel/RRTET7320327183?selected=RRTET3105168313
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Really interested in folks feedback on this interview. I think Jordan had some really interesting things to say about the Duke season thus far and what Scheyer is doing with the team.

He is also pretty darn critical of the panic monkeys who saw Duke lose twice and have declared this team is a failure.
 
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