MBB: Duke 84, Wake Forest 60 Post-Game Thread

[DukieInBrasil]

I was thinking about this too, and I think the bolded portion or your post (emphasis mine) is the key. If all Huff is going to do on the perimeter is shoot 3s, I think Mark can use his length to challenge those. Obviously it's a loss to not have him at the rim, but since I doubt Huff will be blowing by Mark on a dribble-drive I think that mismatch isn't as monumental as some might think.

I think something we might see in this game is a lot more of JG to guard Kihei Clark. If Huff draws Mark away from the rim, Clark will try to penetrate and draw him back down to get Huff open 3s. JGs defensive ability and size advantage on Clark could make it so we can leave that a 1-on-1 matchup (this is along the lines of what FSU did on Monday). Heck, we could even task Wendell with doing something similar in spurts. If we can force Clark to try to score over bigger defenders 1 on 1, rather than allowing him to facilitate open looks to the bigs, we mitigate the mismatchs that Huff and Hauser generate.

Although i love me some JGold, and Moore's defense is quite good and versatile, I don't think either of them is quick enough to keep up with Clarke. He's small, very quick and uses that combo to get by people. Quick is not a word i would use describe either JGold or Wendell. Him blowing past either of them would allow him to begin picking our D apart. I suspect that either Roach or Steward will be tasked with guarding Kihei for the most part.

JGold is an excellent off-ball defender, and is very stout against non-quick players, like the Shakira-look-alike from WF last night, of whom JGold strait stood him up and stole the ball from him.

[gumbomoop]

K said he changed the way we defend the high ball screen. The results were obvious, but I really didn’t see the change watching live. Can someone please explain what we did differently?

I wasn't really focusing on this during the game (so I could be wrong), but it looked to me like Mark went into drop coverage on the screen and the screened player fought over the screen to try to stay on the ballhandler.

I think I saw the same thing Kedsy did. It’s not that easy to fight over the screen. Last night, rather than switching on those high screens, Duke defenders really worked hard to stay with the dribbler. And it wasn’t just Goldwire. Both Steward and Roach fought over the screen, too. Almost always succeeded. Big difference and big plus, I thought.

Two college players who were excellent at fighting over the screen were tOSU’s Aaron Craft and our Tre Jones.

[FerryFor50]

I see a pattern.

vs Winthrop (W 83-70)
vs Wofford (W 86-57)
vs Wake Forest (W 84-60)

Looking forward to a 2021 NCAA Tournament path of (12) Western Kentucky, (13) Wright State, (16) Wagner, (11) Wichita State, (5) Wisconsin, and (3) West Virginia. Lots of potential Ws there.

Here's a vote for renaming it Wirginia...

[lotusland]

Banchero would probably pull a Jalen if that happens...

I’d take that trade without any idea of how good Banchero is just to have that continuity that is always lacking when the season starts. But I don’t think it will happen and I doubt Hurt would benefit that much from a 3rd year as far as his NBA development. I’m really happy that Hurt came back and accomplished exactly what he needed to improve upon. Much like Tre last year, Hurt really couldn’t ask for much better season on a personal level. Like Tre, Matt will have to overcome significant physical limitations to carve out a role in the NBA but another year at Duke wouldn’t have made Tre taller and it won’t make Hurt quicker. I just hope that Hurt, unlike Tre, gets his chance in the Tournament.

[DrChainsaw]

I love THIS team.

I am behind them 100%, whatever happens.

As frustrating as it sometimes gets, I'm always with this team no matter what happens.

On the other hand, I was pretty near giving up on this forum for a while...

[CDu]

It's possible, but your scenario only really applies to the Wake game (maybe the two Notre Dame games as well). Against State, we forced tons of turnovers (TO%=29.8%, best of the season) and coughed it up quite a bit ourselves (21.2%, 4th-worst of the season). Against Clemson, we protected the ball but forced a fair amount of TOs (20.0%). Against Wake the first time (1.23 adjusted oRating, 64.9 pace), both teams turned it over a lot (21.6% for us, 23.1% for them). So I think there must be another explanation.

My suspicion is that it may have to do with playing more of Williams and less of Johnson. With Johnson, the goal had been to push tempo in transition to create easy baskets. With Williams (and especially with Williams AND Hurt), you aren't going to run off of misses very much. Neither of them are grab and go guys. And Williams' skill set is pretty much exclusively half-court. And even in the half court, it's not the type of take-you-on skill set that leads to short possessions.

So I suspect that the team is trending slower as we get more use of our biggest big, and that is being exacerbated by the exit of Johnson over the past 1.5 games.

I wasn't really focusing on this during the game (so I could be wrong), but it looked to me like Mark went into drop coverage on the screen and the screened player fought over the screen to try to stay on the ballhandler.

I think I saw the same thing Kedsy did. It’s not that easy to fight over the screen. Last night, rather than switching on those high screens, Duke defenders really worked hard to stay with the dribbler. And it wasn’t just Goldwire. Both Steward and Roach fought over the screen, too. Almost always succeeded. Big difference and big plus, I thought.

Two college players who were excellent at fighting over the screen were tOSU’s Aaron Craft and our Tre Jones.

I think it's actually the opposite. I think we started going UNDER the screens in this past game rather than trying to fight over the screens. Combined with drop coverage, that really limits dribble penetration. It does tend to leave off-dribble 3s more open though.

[jimsumner]

but Hurt may be my favorite Duke offensive player since Zion!

That long ago? Seriously? Two whole years ago?

[BlueDevilStop]

Duke is becoming a pretty good three point shooting team right before our eyes.

For the season, Duke is now 142-398 from 3-point range which is good for 35.7%.

Matthew Hurt is now 40-88 from 3 which is good for a blistering 45.5%!

The team has been on fire from beyond the arc for three straight games now. Hoping this trend continues.

[Edouble]

A really nice win. One of our best performances of the season and it is ~5 points better in adjusted efficiency margin than the best in the country. The defense was stifling in the first half, a bit sloppy in the second half. But the offense was spectacular. We shot well, rebounded solidly, and didn’t turn it over at all. That is how you get an elite offense. Defensively, we got a bit lucky that Wake missed a bunch of open 3s, which probably cost them 5-6 points. We also didn’t turn them over, but we did well on the defensive glass. Good enough when you have an elite offense.

With that performance, we moved into the top-30 in KenPom and the top-40 in Torvik. Our NET ranking will probably be high-50s/low-60s when it gets updated today. Progress. If only we had weeks out a couple of those close losses, we wouldn’t be sweating the NCAAs so much. With those KenPom and Torvik numbers, 11-6 and 9-4 looks so much better than 9-8 and 6-6. Alas...

Our offense has been over performing some obviously as Hurt is shooting better than he should be shooting. But even at a normal efficiency we would still be good. In the meantime, it is fun seeing him make every FGA he takes. About those FTs though...

Another strong performance overall from Williams, although he did have a rough first few minutes of the second half as Okpomo feasted on him for 3 or 4 possessions. Still, he is establishing himself as a consistent presence and that is great.

Brakefield played really well off the bench. He stands to benefit from the opportunity left by Hohnson as he gets more regular minutes. His style of play works well off either Williams or Hurt, as he has a fair amount of versatility and no shortage of confidence.

Steward was again terrific. He is really finding his way now.

Goldwire did Goldwire things as usual.

Baker was that knockdown shooter we hoped he would be, and did a good job of avoiding turnovers.

The only negatives were Moore turning back into a turnover machine, Hurt missing his FTs, and Roach having a very quiet night. But in aggregate it was a great performance. We curbstomped a team on the road and exceeded our expected margin by about 20 points.

This weekend will be a different test, both in terms of quality and style. It will be especially tough for our young bigs. Hopefully we are up for the challenge, as a win would put us firmly back in the NCAAs discussion.

Does that "H" stand for "He-who-shall-not-be-named"?

I think it's actually the opposite. I think we started going UNDER the screens in this past game rather than trying to fight over the screens. Combined with drop coverage, that really limits dribble penetration. It does tend to leave off-dribble 3s more open though.

Wait, wha? I'd swear we were going over everything. I am gonna have to check the tape.

[BlueDevilStop]

Also among the small and large improvements seen in this game, Matthew managed to play 31 minutes and commit only two fouls. Certainly helps his scoring potential if he can stay off the bench a little longer.

The emergence of Mark Williams has really helped Hurt. Prevents Hurt from having to play the five as much and commit fouls while struggling to guard opposing centers. The Williams/Hurt front court duo is really looking good lately.

[CDu]

Does that "H" stand for "He-who-shall-not-be-named"?



Wait, wha? I'd swear we were going over everything. I am gonna have to check the tape.

Ha, typo. But yeah, I thought we were going under last night. But I could be mistaken. I'll double check later.

I will say, though, that if we were going over the screens last night, that is NOT a change from what we were doing before. Because we were definitely going over screens prior to last night's game. I have horrid memories of Notre Dame's guards killing our bigs on drives because our guards were going over the screens.

[SlapTheFloor]

My suspicion is that it may have to do with playing more of Williams and less of Johnson. With Johnson, the goal had been to push tempo in transition to create easy baskets. With Williams (and especially with Williams AND Hurt), you aren't going to run off of misses very much. Neither of them are grab and go guys. And Williams' skill set is pretty much exclusively half-court. And even in the half court, it's not the type of take-you-on skill set that leads to short possessions.

So I suspect that the team is trending slower as we get more use of our biggest big, and that is being exacerbated by the exit of Johnson over the past 1.5 games.

I wonder how that will affect us against Virginia. In the past, our best offensive chances against them have been when we could get out in transition.

[DCDevil9194]

I will say, though, that if we were going over the screens last night, that is NOT a change from what we were doing before. Because we were definitely going over screens prior to last night's game. I have horrid memories of Notre Dame's guards killing our bigs on drives because our guards were going over the screens.

I thought the guard was going over the screen, but the big was dropping to prevent the straight line drive. The big was able to drop because Wake's screener was not a three-point threat. Not sure this strategy will work against UVA since Huff is a three-point threat.

[UrinalCake]

I feel like it’s time to address the elephant in the room, which is that the team chemistry looked much improved in their first game without Johnson. I’m not going to trash Johnson or anything, but I will say that I hope the energy and enthusiasm continues. The guys really looked to be having fun out there and everyone was playing hard especially on defense, which was contagious.

Basketball-wise I think that having Hurt and Johnson on the floor at the same time was a difficult fit. Both are poor defenders and when you have them both out there in the front court then it’s too easy for our opponents to target them in pick and rolls and generate mismatches or easy looks. Johnson was really good at getting dramatic weak side blocks which gave the perception that he was a good defender, but one on one neither he nor Hurt can stay with their man and certainly not if it’s a guard. So I do think that the more traditional Hurt and Williams combination is more effective.

Like all changes, our opponents will adjust. Now that Williams has played a few games, they have tape in him and can develop a strategy to attack. So we’ll need to adjust in turn.

[dukelifer]

I feel like it’s time to address the elephant in the room, which is that the team chemistry looked much improved in their first game without Johnson. I’m not going to trash Johnson or anything, but I will say that I hope the energy and enthusiasm continues. The guys really looked to be having fun out there and everyone was playing hard especially on defense, which was contagious.

Basketball-wise I think that having Hurt and Johnson on the floor at the same time was a difficult fit. Both are poor defenders and when you have them both out there in the front court then it’s too easy for our opponents to target them in pick and rolls and generate mismatches or easy looks. Johnson was really good at getting dramatic weak side blocks which gave the perception that he was a good defender, but one on one neither he nor Hurt can stay with their man and certainly not if it’s a guard. So I do think that the more traditional Hurt and Williams combination is more effective.

Like all changes, our opponents will adjust. Now that Williams has played a few games, they have tape in him and can develop a strategy to attack. So we’ll need to adjust in turn.

Johnson probably has more raw ability to be a better defender than Hurt but he needs to work on that part of his game. Williams will have his ups and down but he is only going to get stronger and maybe taller. He has good touch and a decent looking FT. I am excited to see him next year. Duke just needs to keep their energy on D. Moore and Goldwire are key. Sat is a big game for this team. They need to treat it as such.

[throatybeard]

The emergence of Mark Williams has really helped Hurt. Prevents Hurt from having to play the five as much and commit fouls while struggling to guard opposing centers.

That is absolutely huge.

[Tripping William]

Have any further details emerged about why the Head Deac got the ol’ heave-ho?

[pfrduke]

That's possible, but we only have a three game sample of such games, so it's difficult to tell for sure.

I don't think this has been true in past seasons, however. Even when Duke plays slowdown with a big lead, the opponent has lots of incentive to be super-fast.

To this point, in both the Wake and State games we had virtually the same number of possessions in the first and second half. So we were playing with a slow pace even before we slowed down on account of the lead.

[DukieInBrasil]

Have any further details emerged about why the Head Deac got the ol’ heave-ho?

the announcing crew said it was a double-tech on the coach, in quick succession. Apparently he made contact with a ref, but the replay of the moment, which happened during a commercial break, was unclear to me.

[3rd Dukie]

Really enjoyed the energy everyone brought tonight from the starters to the bench and that it was pretty well maintained throughout the game. I was a mite worried that there would be some slack at the start of the 2nd half - very pleased with the stretching of the lead to 29. They seemed relaxed and enjoying themselves rather than appearing stressed and under pressure to avoid going dropping below .500.

I am loving the growth of Mark Williams. I had thought we would have to wait till next year to see major improvement based on early games but he has really become a force. Looks to be thoroughly absorbing his coaching.

I thought the defense was much stronger with a lot more helping their teammates - I think we would have heard a lot more talking going on if we had been able to better hear the floor action.

This team seems to now understand an increased level of what it means to be a team. Will it be enough to get into the NCAAT? I hope so but regardless, if they keep putting forth effort and growth like tonight, I could not be more proud.

Great post! Particularly the last point. AMEN!!