NCAAT 1 Seed and 2 Seed Possibilities

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Lunardi's current bracket would have us going through (possibly) Kansas, Michigan, Gonzaga or Kentucky - and then possibly meeting either UVA or Cheats in the title game. Could this be the year we get Armageddon, and face the Cheats in the final?

As others have mentioned, I really don't want to see them again (but you'd have to think it might be the highest-rated NCAA game ever).

I would be fine with it. I think a fourth match up, given Bolden's return, would swing our way.

[dukelifer]

Lunardi's current bracket would have us going through (possibly) Kansas, Michigan, Gonzaga or Kentucky - and then possibly meeting either UVA or Cheats in the title game. Could this be the year we get Armageddon, and face the Cheats in the final?

As others have mentioned, I really don't want to see them again (but you'd have to think it might be the highest-rated NCAA game ever).

Carolina appears to have an easy Bracket- with Wisconsin and Michigan State- if it plays out like this.

[lotusland]

I don’t see how the Zags keep a 1 after getting waxed by St. Mary’s. I’m not saying they won’t get a one seed but that was a bad loss for a team with a super weak conference schedule. They lost to uNCheat and Tennessee. Zona sucks and Duke was their only really good non-conference win. It’s not really Gonzaga’s fault that they don’t have tougher conference schedule but, with that being the case, they should be expected to win their conference games to be seeded ahead of uNCheat, UK, Tennessee or Michigan State (if they best MI). Right now UVA, Tennessee, uNCheat and UK are the teams I don’t want to play in the tournament. Bring on a rematch with the Zags.

[sagegrouse]

I don’t see how the Zags keep a 1 after getting waxed by St. Mary’s. I’m not saying they won’t get a one seed but that was a bad loss for a team with a super weak conference schedule. They lost to uNCheat and Tennessee. Zona sucks and Duke was their only really good non-conference win. It’s not really Gonzaga’s fault that they don’t have tougher conference schedule but, with that being the case, they should be expected to win their conference games to be seeded ahead of uNCheat, UK, Tennessee or Michigan State (if they best MI). Right now UVA, Tennessee, uNCheat and UK are the teams I don’t want to play in the tournament. Bring on a rematch with the Zags.

While "It's not their fault that they don't have [a] tougher conference schedule," it is their lot in life, and the Zags must rise to overcome it. They did not. The Zags lost their tournament and went 1-2 against other top teams. I wouldn't reward the Zags for being in a weak conference. I'd put them at #2. Truthfully (that's what I always say when I'm just spouting off), they should go behind UNC, Tennessee and the Big Ten champion (especially if it is Michigan), who thrived in much tougher conferences. UNC's 16-2 record in the ACC is very, very strong -- plus, it beat Gonzaga.

[MrPoon]

I simply can’t fathom the Gonzaga as a #1 argument. I’ve said it for most of the season. Their reputation is to play a hard NonCon schedule to make up for a weak Conf. They didn’t this year. At all. Yes they beat Duke but their next best win is either at Creighton or against Washington. Simply a joke. Contrast that to MSU’s schedule or Kentucky or UNC or Duke. While Zags faced that gauntlet, Duke played T Tech, Auburn, St Johns, and Kentucky. What they can control, they didn’t (I don’t know why the analytics like KenPom or NET are not picking up on that). Plus St Mary’s isn’t a NCAA tournament team without the win, so a worse loss than many fighting for a #1. Yes they have fewer losses but they didn’t beat enough quality teams.

Same thing for UVa vs Duke for the #1 overall. Gonzaga is getting a #1 by brand or because no one else wants to be in the west and no one is good west of the Miss. UVa is in the discussion because of anylitics and win total. Look at their non-conf, the only reasonable team they played was Wisc and the league forced them to do it.

The committee said they are weighing the games the same, conf and Non Conf, early and late. If so, a poor NonConf schedule needs to be accounted for Zags and UVa didn’t play anyone except one high level game a piece.

To me its Duke #1 overall, UVa, Tenn, UNC. And I actually think its fairly clear. While it is not a site I frequent for obvous reasons, this had a great graphic:
https://www.tarheelblog.com/2019/3/1...-seed-nas-coby

Love to hear a counter argument by the many smarter people here. But I have yet to hear one from the press other than Zags look like a #1 or they have a lot of wins so...

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I simply can’t fathom the Gonzaga as a #1 argument. I’ve said it for most of the season. Their reputation is to play a hard NonCon schedule to make up for a weak Conf. They didn’t this year. At all. Yes they beat Duke but their next best win is either at Creighton or against Washington. Simply a joke. Contrast that to MSU’s schedule or Kentucky or UNC or Duke. While Zags faced that gauntlet, Duke played T Tech, Auburn, St Johns, and Kentucky. What they can control, they didn’t (I don’t know why the analytics like KenPom or NET are not picking up on that). Plus St Mary’s isn’t a NCAA tournament team without the win, so a worse loss than many fighting for a #1. Yes they have fewer losses but they didn’t beat enough quality teams.

Same thing for UVa vs Duke for the #1 overall. Gonzaga is getting a #1 by brand or because no one else wants to be in the west and no one is good west of the Miss. UVa is in the discussion because of anylitics and win total. Look at their non-conf, the only reasonable team they played was Wisc and the league forced them to do it.

The committee said they are weighing the games the same, conf and Non Conf, early and late. If so, a poor NonConf schedule needs to be accounted for Zags and UVa didn’t play anyone except one high level game a piece.

To me its Duke #1 overall, UVa, Tenn, UNC. And I actually think its fairly clear. While it is not a site I frequent for obvous reasons, this had a great graphic:
https://www.tarheelblog.com/2019/3/1...-seed-nas-coby

Love to hear a counter argument by the many smarter people here. But I have yet to hear one from the press other than Zags look like a #1 or they have a lot of wins so...

Yeah, I can't figure the rationale for the Zags as a top seed. I mean, is it a vote for fairness, or the little guy? Against East coast bias? You could, I suppose, point to their gaudy win streak (against literally no one of note) coming into the tournament, except the loss to St. Mary's killed that narrative.

I haven't kept up with the various rankings and ratings and quadrants, but there's no universe in which they have played anything remotely similar to an ACC schedule. Would you rather match up against Pepperdine or NCSU?

I will be interested to see if the committee buys into the idea of Gonzaga as a top seed, or if it is all ESPN bluster. I hope I know the answer.

[uh_no]

Love to hear a counter argument

Yeah, I can't figure the rationale for the Zags as a top seed.

#2 NET.

It's yet to be seen as to how much or how little weight the committee will give it, but it's a valid argument.

[MrPoon]

#2 NET.

It's yet to be seen as to how much or how little weight the committee will give it, but it's a valid argument.

Is that ranking a validation of Gonzaga or a critique of NET?

USA Today agrees with me so I must be right!

https://eu.usatoday.com/story/sports...et/3193694002/

[jhmoss1812]

I simply can’t fathom the Gonzaga as a #1 argument. I’ve said it for most of the season. Their reputation is to play a hard NonCon schedule to make up for a weak Conf. They didn’t this year. At all. Yes they beat Duke but their next best win is either at Creighton or against Washington. Simply a joke. Contrast that to MSU’s schedule or Kentucky or UNC or Duke. While Zags faced that gauntlet, Duke played T Tech, Auburn, St Johns, and Kentucky. What they can control, they didn’t (I don’t know why the analytics like KenPom or NET are not picking up on that). Plus St Mary’s isn’t a NCAA tournament team without the win, so a worse loss than many fighting for a #1. Yes they have fewer losses but they didn’t beat enough quality teams.

Same thing for UVa vs Duke for the #1 overall. Gonzaga is getting a #1 by brand or because no one else wants to be in the west and no one is good west of the Miss. UVa is in the discussion because of anylitics and win total. Look at their non-conf, the only reasonable team they played was Wisc and the league forced them to do it.

The committee said they are weighing the games the same, conf and Non Conf, early and late. If so, a poor NonConf schedule needs to be accounted for Zags and UVa didn’t play anyone except one high level game a piece.

To me its Duke #1 overall, UVa, Tenn, UNC. And I actually think its fairly clear. While it is not a site I frequent for obvous reasons, this had a great graphic:
https://www.tarheelblog.com/2019/3/1...-seed-nas-coby

Love to hear a counter argument by the many smarter people here. But I have yet to hear one from the press other than Zags look like a #1 or they have a lot of wins so...

The league forced us to play in the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament?

[AGDukesky]

I’m not opposed to Gonzaga being a one seed, but my general rule is to try to project a mid majors record given the same schedule as a P5 vying for a 1 seed. I think Gonzaga would have a similar record to either SEC team (UK, Tenn) but not any ACC top 3 team. I still remain underwhelmed by the Big 10 thingy overall and think Gonzaga would be in the same ballpark as the Michigan teams. The other factor is injuries, which inflates UNCs record by at least one win over Duke and devalues MSUs resume. All of that said, with adjustments for injuries and assuming MSU and Tenn win today, my 1 seeds would be: Duke, UVA, MSU, Tenn. I’m expecting UNC as always to get over seeded though and be a 1.

[OldPhiKap]

The ACC certainly earned three top seeds.

I hate the pod system, we will be stuck in another hostile environment predominated by UNC fans. We should never be in the same pod as them.

State should get in, but only by the skin of their teeth.

Roy is a cheating bastard who can go to Hell.



Guess I covered most of it. Feel better already.

[scottdude8]

While "It's not their fault that they don't have [a] tougher conference schedule," it is their lot in life, and the Zags must rise to overcome it. They did not. The Zags lost their tournament and went 1-2 against other top teams. I wouldn't reward the Zags for being in a weak conference. I'd put them at #2. Truthfully (that's what I always say when I'm just spouting off), they should go behind UNC, Tennessee and the Big Ten champion (especially if it is Michigan), who thrived in much tougher conferences. UNC's 16-2 record in the ACC is very, very strong -- plus, it beat Gonzaga.

I 100% agree with this, but as I've talked about a lot, the NET is the great unknown this year. Gonzaga is No. 2 in the NET, but would be No. 7 in the old RPI. The committee may point to that ranking in justifying a 1 seed for Gonzaga, although I definitely agree their resume doesn't agree with it.

[scottdude8]

To me its Duke #1 overall, UVa, Tenn, UNC. And I actually think its fairly clear. While it is not a site I frequent for obvous reasons, this had a great graphic:
https://www.tarheelblog.com/2019/3/1...-seed-nas-coby

Love to hear a counter argument by the many smarter people here. But I have yet to hear one from the press other than Zags look like a #1 or they have a lot of wins so...

How convenient that the Tar Heels left Michigan off of that graphic, who annihilated UNC...

[scottdude8]

FWIW, from an article on ESPN.com:

This one [the question of the NET] will dictate every decision the committee makes. If it's used like the RPI, it will be purely a sorting tool and not used as a tiebreaker or given heavy weight in the selection or seeding process. But this is the NCAA's baby, its new toy. So will they use it heavily throughout the bracket? I spoke on Saturday with two coaches whose teams are on the bubble, and that was the biggest question they had -- and the answer is simply, nobody knows. Nobody knows the formula and nobody knows how important it will be Sunday.

[CameronCrazy'11]

The ACC certainly earned three top seeds.

I hate the pod system, we will be stuck in another hostile environment predominated by UNC fans. We should never be in the same pod as them.

State should get in, but only by the skin of their teeth.

Roy is a cheating bastard who can go to Hell.



Guess I covered most of it. Feel better already.

I would imagine we will be in South Carolina with UVA. UNC should get shipped off to Jacksonville.

[ChillinDuke]

Up until earlier today, I was sure that Kentucky or Tennessee would get the 2 Seed in the South, but I think you are right. Somehow, I think Gonzaga is going to hold onto its 1 seed and, with a win over Auburn, UNC slides to the Midwest 2 seed. I think we'll see something like this:

East: Duke, Michigan/MSU loser
South: Virginia, Michigan/MSU winner
Midwest: Tennessee, UNC
West: Gonzaga, Kentucky

If Auburn pulls the upset and beats Tennessee for a second time in about a week, flip Tennessee and UNC.

Agreed.

- Chillin

[budwom]

The Committee throws out so many criteria, with no weighting whatsoever, that one can put together all sorts of cases when it comes to seeding...it's clearly an art and not a science...

[OldPhiKap]

I would imagine we will be in South Carolina with UVA. UNC should get shipped off to Jacksonville.

Hope that is right!!!!

[ChillinDuke]

While I think the Gonzaga and NET questions are valid and debatable, I think we can put to bed the #1 overall seed question.

I would be utterly shocked if we weren't the #1 overall. By almost any metric, we qualify. The Zion injury will so obviously be included as a Committee consideration in light of how the ACCT went.

- Chillin

ETA: Even if the Committee considers Syracuse a valid loss (while we were down 2 starters), the 3 Zion losses were to a possible #1 seed and a close one on the road to strong Va Tech. Zion is the unquestionable consensus NPOY this year. We lost 1 game all year at full strength and that's to a 1 seed. You can include Cuse to be conservative under the argument that "everyone suffers injuries in the normal course, but realistically even that loss should be discounted heavily, and that's only 2 losses if you do so.

[dukelifer]

While I think the Gonzaga and NET questions are valid and debatable, I think we can put to bed the #1 overall seed question.

I would be utterly shocked if we weren't the #1 overall. By almost any metric, we qualify. The Zion injury will so obviously be included as a Committee consideration in light of how the ACCT went.

- Chillin

I think that is set in stone - Everyone in contention lost. Duke was the last team standing.