Originally Posted by
JasonEvans
We have a fascinating race that is likely to attract a ton of national attention here in Georgia... especially when you consider it has zero impact on the national balance of power in congress.
It is the race for Governor. Georgia has increasingly been turning purple from being reliably red in recent years, thanks to increasing population in the cities and more diversity in the population. It is estimated that Georgia has gone from being 56% white, non-Hispanic to just over 51% white, non-Hispanic since 2010. Donald Trump won Georgia with just 51.1% of the vote in 2016, the lowest total for any GOP candidate since Bob Dole in 1996.
So, the upshot of all this is that Democrats think they might have a real shot at winning the governor's race. There will not be any senator seats up in 2018, so the Governor's race is the big one and turnout will likely be sorta low as a result.
But, why should the Georgia governor race attract more attention than any number of other governor or senate races nationwide? It is because there is a decent chance Georgia will do something never done before in Us history. Georgia may elect the first female African-American governor ever.
Her name is Stacey Abrams and she was the minority leader of the Ga House for many years. She has a pretty compelling personal story, coming from a poor family in Mississippi. Her family moved to Atlanta and she became the first ever black valedictorian at her high school. She graduated magna cum laude from Spellman and then went to Yale where she got her JD. She really connects with people when she talks about growing up poor and how hard her family worked to achieve success. Her sister was a US Attorney and is now a Federal Judge. Her brother, who she says was brilliant growing up, has been a drug addict and a criminal for many years. I've heard her speak and when she talks about the struggles of her family and their ups and downs, it really is compelling.
Anyway, Abrams faces off against Stacey Evans in the Democratic primary this week. Abrams is widely expected to win because she has really been embraced by progressives (Bernie Sanders, Kamala Harris, and Cory Booker are all backing her) and the statewide party is largely on her side. By comparison, Evans really has no national Democratic backing and her most prominent local endorsement is former governor Roy Barnes. Abrams has really endorsed progressive policies, talking up universal healthcare. Many say she is trying to win without getting any white male votes. That will work just fine in the Democratic primary, but can it work in the general election? Most of the polls shows Abrams with about a 20 point lead on Evans, though around 25-30% of the electorate remains undecided. Those undecided voters would have to really break HARD for Evans to make it a close race.
Abrams will likely face off against Georgia's Lt. Governor Casey Cagel. He's consistently polling in the mid-30s in a crowded GOP field of 5 candidates, 4 of whom reach double-digits. Still, Cagel is likely to win. The GOP race has really focused on being anti-immigrant and pro-guns. One GOP contender appeared in a TV ad where he was cleaning a gun while sternly talking to a boy who wanted to take his daughter out on a date. Another candidate said he wanted to give away free bump stocks (devices that make semi-automatic rifles fully automatic) to every household in the state. Meanwhile, one of the GOP contenders said he wanted to drive around in his truck and pick up illegals who commit crimes to deport them. One of his rivals upped that by getting a bus and touring the state on his "Deportation bus tour."
Once Tuesday's primary is done, we should know who the candidates will be, probably Cagle and Abrams. The polls seem to indicate that it will be a close race, probably a slight GOP lean. But, if Abrams can pull the upset, Georgia will have made American history. For a state in the deep South to be the one to do that would be kinda cool.
-Jason "there is little else of note here this cycle... though there are a few congressional races that could get interesting if the predicted 'Blue Wave' comes to pass" Evans