Cam Boozer profiles as a more impactful freshman than anyone we had in those two seasons. Yes, he's not Cooper, but no one is. He may not be Kon, but no one thought Kon would be Kon at this point last season. It seems like Jon is building a roster around Cam as the centerpiece (probably a big reason why we didn't go even harder after Ament), which is more akin to last year's build around Cooper than Jon's first two seasons when he was simply trying to accumulat talent.
I'd put Boozer as likely to be somewhere between Banchero (who of course predated Scheyer as HC) and freshman Filipowski, but closer to Filipowski than to Banchero. He will be very good. The problem is that I'm not sure we're clearly better elsewhere than that team in 2023 or 2024.
- Isaiah Evans has a higher ceiling than any returning player we've had in the Scheyer era. Yes, in Jon's second year we returned more contributors... but that was in part by necessity (an entirely new, freshman-driven team in his first season). If Isaiah was in Jon's first recruiting class I imagine he would've played 25-30 mpg, and we'd be as excited about his return as we were about Kyle's. The difference is that Isaiah has a legitimate lottery-pick ceiling which he could reach this year, which would take us to anther level. I think we were all a bit too optimistic about Kyle's potential for a sophomore leap based on his transition from the 4 to the 5.
I'd say the returning Filipowski had as high or higher a ceiling as the returning Evans. There is still a lot of uncertainty regarding Evans. People I think are falling prey to remembering the incredible highs, but a good chunk of that is that he likely benefited this year by being in such a low-pressure role. He came in, got to run around and hunt 3s, and if he was hitting them, amazing. If not, we just stopped playing him. So we didn't really see the downside of his streakiness, because we never were really reliant on him this year. Next year, when he's a starter, how will we handle the inevitable ~3-15 shooting performance that he's going to have?
Can he become more consistently positive in terms of impact in a much more important role? Maybe. But that's a massive unknown. Especially because he won't get lost by defenders on next year's team, as there's nobody in the perimeter lineup who presents a major concern for the defense like Flagg and Knueppel did.
- If Jon wasn't confident in a Caleb/Cayden combo at the point, we know he'd do something about it. We saw this with Sean/TJ last offseason. So far, one of Jon's greatest strengths has been his ability to self-scout. If he didn't see something in Caleb's game down the stretch that made him confident he could make the changes necessary this offseason to be a real PG, there would be other pieces in motion. Historically we've seen Duke guards make major jumps between their sophomore and junior years, and Caleb could be next in line. That, or Cayden is going to surprise us all and be the third Jones brother. Jon must think those are much more likely scenarios than neither being able to be relied upon at the point this season, and he knows way better than us!
First, I'd say we've
sometimes seen Duke guards make major jumps between their sophomore and junior years. That hasn't always been the case. And I'd say it's less likely when a guy regresses offensively from freshman to sophomore year. I certainly hope we see a big jump from Foster. But it's a big question mark at the moment, especially as all of his success to date at Duke has been in a wing role rather than a playmaking role.
Second, I'd say we still aren't sure what Scheyer thinks about our PG situation. But we'll get a better idea the rest of the portal season. I'd add, though, that Scheyer thought Foster was the PG going into
this year, and clearly that was a misread. Fortunately, Knueppel and James were surprises on the positive side as playmakers, and of course Flagg exceeded expectations.
It makes a lot of sense for us to be pessimistic as fans because it's so unlikely that our next squad is as dominant as our last one. But I think there are major reasons to believe we're more likely to be competing for a 1-seed than for a 4-seed this season. Somewhere in the middle is most likely, with the potential for a high ceiling based on Isaiah and Cam's development. I remain cautiously optimistic, with the obvious caveat that any comparison to last year's squad is of course going to be disappointing.
I don't think this squad as is would be more likely to be competing for a 1 seed than a 4 seed next year. Though I'm hopeful that we'll still be adding another key piece or 2 that could make that true. But I agree that a 2- or 3- seed is the most likely outcome. Which, to kAzE's point, is not a great title contender. It's a team that could certainly surprise and win a title, but it would be a team you'd expect to lose in the Sweet-16 or Elite-8.
